Official Indiana Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

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I'm rooting for a big Hillary win tonight. The Lake and Allen County numbers will be very intriguing to see when the polls close; if Obama is not breaking even in Allen and winning Lake by a good margin, he will have a long night.

Lake County is in another time zone so I doubt we'll be able to use them as an early indicator.

I thought they just closed early. Isn't that how Indiana is always one of the first three states called in Presidential elections?

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More crap:

Recession has affected you - Clinton 53-46
Recession has not affected you - Obama 54-46

Realistically, the Clinton lead is somewhere between Clinton +5 and Obama +1 in early Indiana exits.  Depends on how pissed the WASPs are.

That looks pretty good for Obama. 

but if the exit poll is off like most of them were, it could easily be double digits for Clinton

The exit polls are not generally off, it's the unweighted early numbers that are. These are not the unweighted numbers, they're near-useless breakdowns from weighted numbers. When Drudge leaks an exit poll, that's when you can use that line.

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Blacks: 92-8 Obama

Surprise, surprise.

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Exit poll suggests 52-48 for Clinton.

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Regional breakdown says Obama crushes Clinton in Marion County, with 71%. She doesn't even do that well in the southern part of the state.

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Republicans preferred Clinton, for the first time. Independents still preferred Obama, a sure sign of Limbaugh propping up Clinton.

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Clinton wins whites 60-40; Obama wins blacks 92-8.

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Those who said race was important were more strongly for Clinton than those who said it wasn't.

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89% said they'd been affected by the recession.

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Clinton wins whites 60-40; Obama wins blacks 92-8.

Almost exactly the same as PA.

Slightly better for Obama than PA; there it was 63-37 and 90-10.

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Probably very good, as it filters out those who genuinely like one of the candidates they're crossing over for.

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Well, all of Tippecanoe's votes disappeared.

I looked it up, and they were reporting 100% in with just over 1000 votes in a county with almost 150,000 people. There was some error.

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what happened in brown county?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_County_Art_Colony

Damn you, Alcon!

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Obama wins Elkhart County 59-41 with 96% in. And the margin is down to ten points.

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Obama wins Elkhart County 59-41 with 96% in. And the margin is down to ten points.

That is another bourgeoise county in Indiana.

If a per capita income of $20,250 is bourgeois, I almost want to move to Indiana!

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Clinton leads in Porter County, which is a bit of surprise. Porter is the ultimate white flight county, of course.

Edit: Only 14% in, though.

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Clinton leads in Porter County, which is a bit of surprise. Porter is the ultimate white flight county, of course.

Edit: Only 14% in, though.

Depends on whether it's the Wallace white-flight types reporting or the nice-identical-houses white-flight types. 

Give the pretty obvious inverse correlation between Porter and Lake Counties' populations, I suspect it's mostly Wallace voters and their descendants.

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Something interesting: so far, every time a chunk of Marion County has come in, it's made the county as a whole stronger for Obama.

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CNN just assigned Indiana delegates, 7-3 Clinton...does that mean they're calling the thing?

That's a mistake.  They're probably right but they stand the chance of being Missouried.

Maybe they're assigning district delegates. There might be a couple of districts all in.

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Well some good news for Clinton. The Dem turnout in Hamilton is low. Pubbies just didn't cross over to vote. So, for Obama to win, he needs to win in Lake by a significant margin, and the remaining precincts in Marion disproportionately black to a significant degree.  Clinton by 3% looks more likely in the sense that the bell curve tails have narrowed, with St. Joseph counted.

Monroe County bears watching, too.

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Brown County flipped to Clinton.

Aesthetically unappealing

By only 18 votes, too.

I think I'm ready to call this for Clinton, 51-49. At the risk of being "Missouried".

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By only 18 votes, too.

I think I'm ready to call this for Clinton, 51-49. At the risk of being "Missouried".

Thanks. We were all waiting.

Hey, my percentage calls on the night have been very accurate. I am good

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Too early to call ---> Too close to call.

Obama just conceded Indiana. wtf?

Ability to claim an upset, I guess.

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how many votes could Obama net in Lake?

40,000 max, I'd say. Then there are votes hanging out elsewhere, more in Obama areas than Clinton ones. It'll be close.

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Obama leads Tippecanoe 59-41 with 32% in. The only big county left that Clinton could do well in is Hendricks. Prepare to be Missouried...