Official Indiana Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Sbane]

Alright I guess Evansville is not flipping... now we wait for Gary.

[Torie]

Chuck Todd says we're waiting for black precincts in Indy to come in.

If black precincts are not in from Indianopolis, Obama will probably win. However, I don't believe the Todd has a clue.

[Joe Biden 2020]

St Joseph County (South Bend) is tilting for Obama currently, which is very suprising.  That's supposed to be Clinton country.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama wins St. Joseph by 6 points, with 100% in suddenly.

[Verily]

Clinton leads in Porter County, which is a bit of surprise. Porter is the ultimate white flight county, of course.

Edit: Only 14% in, though.

Depends on whether it's the Wallace white-flight types reporting or the nice-identical-houses white-flight types. 

Give the pretty obvious inverse correlation between Porter and Lake Counties' populations, I suspect it's mostly Wallace voters and their descendants.

[Alcon]

Chuck Todd says we're waiting for black precincts in Indy to come in.

If black precincts are not in from Indianopolis, Obama will probably win. However, I don't believe the Todd has a clue.

Todd has no way of knowing, other than assuming black precincts come in late, which is generally a good rule.  Depends on the city and location of the county election center, though.

If Obama does very well in Lake County, we could be up late.

[Eraserhead]

I guess I was wrong about there not being any surprises tonight...

[Tender Branson]

Clinton down to 7, without Lake and St. Joseph ? Makes me happy.

Clinton by 2-4 in the end ...

[Flying Dog]

Obama wins St. Joseph by 6 points, with 100% in suddenly.

Hmmm....I don't have any clue why.

[Torie]

St Joseph County (South Bend) is tilting for Obama currently, which is very suprising.  That's supposed to be Clinton country.

The priests came through for him.   Hey, it has a pretty big college population, and Notre Dame isn't just another third rate Catholic school with a good football team anymore. It is an elite university.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I did some calculations, and when all the results from Indianapolis are counted, Hillary will only be ahead by 4 points.

And that is without a single Lake County vote being counted.

[Eraserhead]

Wow! 53%-47%. Come on baby!

[Joe Biden 2020]

Clinton is not having a good night at all.  If she wins Indiana, it may be by just a very tiny margin.

[Aizen]

THE MARGIN NARROWS.

DOWN TO SIX POINTS.

NOW HE STRIKES BACK

TIME TO GO INTO OBAMA OVERDRIVE

[Alcon]

CNN just assigned Indiana delegates, 7-3 Clinton...does that mean they're calling the thing?

That's a mistake.  They're probably right but they stand the chance of being Missouried.

[Verily]

Something interesting: so far, every time a chunk of Marion County has come in, it's made the county as a whole stronger for Obama.

[Alcon]

Something interesting: so far, every time a chunk of Marion County has come in, it's made the county as a whole stronger for Obama.

He's actually been winning the most recent few reports nearly 4-to-1.  Maybe Chuck Todd actually knows what he's talking about (probably not)

[Verily]

CNN just assigned Indiana delegates, 7-3 Clinton...does that mean they're calling the thing?

That's a mistake.  They're probably right but they stand the chance of being Missouried.

Maybe they're assigning district delegates. There might be a couple of districts all in.

[Joe Biden 2020]

CNN just assigned Indiana delegates, 7-3 Clinton...does that mean they're calling the thing?

That's a mistake.  They're probably right but they stand the chance of being Missouried.

Those are probably CD's that are completely in.  That's the only way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something interesting: so far, every time a chunk of Marion County has come in, it's made the county as a whole stronger for Obama.

Yeah, isn't that what usually happens in the Indianpolis Congressional District [qm].

Some interesting results so far anyway; been busy with other things so I've not been commenting.

[Torie]

Well some good news for Clinton. The Dem turnout in Hamilton is low. Pubbies just didn't cross over to vote. So, for Obama to win, he needs to win in Lake by a significant margin, and the remaining precincts in Marion disproportionately black to a significant degree.  Clinton by 3% looks more likely in the sense that the bell curve tails have narrowed, with St. Joseph counted.

[Verily]

Well some good news for Clinton. The Dem turnout in Hamilton is low. Pubbies just didn't cross over to vote. So, for Obama to win, he needs to win in Lake by a significant margin, and the remaining precincts in Marion disproportionately black to a significant degree.  Clinton by 3% looks more likely in the sense that the bell curve tails have narrowed, with St. Joseph counted.

Monroe County bears watching, too.

[Alcon]

We still have Tippecanoe and the vast, vast majority (>91%, despite what's said) [edit: of Monroe) still out.  And Hamilton's report % could be wrong, too.  Plus that stat is based on precincts.

If a 50-person township is in and a 1,000-person city isn't, in Indiana, that counts as 50% reporting.

I think you're probably right, Torie, just caveats. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clinton should probably drop out after this. Just saying.

[Democratic Hawk]

I wasn't confident Obama would win St Joseph but he did 53 - 47