2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Those are his internals?  Honestly, those look like the most realistic set of numbers I've seen come from any one source.  Looks really in line with the education level and other demographic trends going on.

[kireev]

The WA Secretary of State website has pretty cool statistics, which compares the 2020 and 2016 turnout rates in WA.

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

So as of now 14 days before the election the turnout rate is 17.6% and at the same point in 2016 it was only 6.2%! Some counties are at almost 0%, so it's just a mail delay or reporting issue, and other counties are at over 30% and even over 40%. And this is just 4-5 days or so after people started receiving their ballots in the mail!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Where did the 600k theory come from?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County added 82k today (mail and EV). Total countywide surpasses 800k.

https://harrisvotes.com/Docs/Uploads/EVPA_unofficial.pdf

[philly09]

I'm guessing all the Nebraska votes are coming from NE-02?

[Non Swing Voter]

Where did the 600k theory come from?

Nobody remembers.  We just know it's 600k.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County adds 35k including mail. They are at 308k (2/3) of 2016 turnout and 63% of 2018’s 484k turnout. I think they should be able to get to at least 500k (ten more days) by the end of early voting, which is insane.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/abrunelle/status/1318726943638839296

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

[Non Swing Voter]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Seems like Miami-Dade not being included here is a pretty big caveat.

[Dr. Arch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Seems like Miami-Dade not being included here is a pretty big caveat.

How long does Miami-Dade actually take to report each night??

[It’s so Joever]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Seems like Miami-Dade not being included here is a pretty big caveat.

How long does Miami-Dade actually take to report each night??

They have a different time zone, that’s the only good explanation.

[Gass3268]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Those are his internals?  Honestly, those look like the most realistic set of numbers I've seen come from any one source.  Looks really in line with the education level and other demographic trends going on.

The last thing they would do is show internals that have a massive lead. Their goal is to cause people to still go out and do the work. If these were their real numbers, I imagine they would show an even closer race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

To add onto this, high turnout in these places benefits Biden, obviously.

[Non Swing Voter]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say? 

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Those are his internals?  Honestly, those look like the most realistic set of numbers I've seen come from any one source.  Looks really in line with the education level and other demographic trends going on.

The last they they would do is show internals that have a massive lead. Their goal is to cause people to still go out and do the work.

Do we know where these numbers came from then?  They look extremely realistic.  Honestly, I would not at all be surprised if those were the final numbers, if not a little closer to 50/50 for all of them, on election night.

[Gass3268]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Those are his internals?  Honestly, those look like the most realistic set of numbers I've seen come from any one source.  Looks really in line with the education level and other demographic trends going on.

The last they they would do is show internals that have a massive lead. Their goal is to cause people to still go out and do the work.

Do we know where these numbers came from then?  They look extremely realistic.  Honestly, I would not at all be surprised if those were the final numbers, if not a little closer to 50/50 for all of them, on election night.

There was a grassroots webinar recently and these were shared with the people on the webinar.

[Non Swing Voter]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Those are his internals?  Honestly, those look like the most realistic set of numbers I've seen come from any one source.  Looks really in line with the education level and other demographic trends going on.

The last they they would do is show internals that have a massive lead. Their goal is to cause people to still go out and do the work.

Do we know where these numbers came from then?  They look extremely realistic.  Honestly, I would not at all be surprised if those were the final numbers, if not a little closer to 50/50 for all of them, on election night.

There was a grassroots webinar recently and these were shared with the people on the webinar.

That's a pretty significant lead to show them, but I'm sure they put it in context to say that all of the battleground states are close and a few point shift could change everything, yada yada.

[The Mikado]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

[It’s so Joever]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

I know Texas has been changing, but damn that would be a huge swing.

Have these places really grown that much in just four years?
Or is it just suburbs turning sour on Trump?

[Ferguson97]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

[Non Swing Voter]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

Me too, except I am not so sure about North Carolina.  And I think Florida will be a lot tighter because it's Florida.  But everything else looks spot on to me.

[The Mikado]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

Me too, except I am not so sure about North Carolina.  And I think Florida will be a lot tighter because it's Florida.  But everything else looks spot on to me.

Team Biden thinking they're up 3 and a half points in Georgia is the big shocker here.