UK General Discussion

[afleitch]

I of course want him to stay as leader. You can probably guess why.

[afleitch]

Caught a ridiculous interview earlier with Mark Hendrick where Ben Brown appeared to be playing the Tory, hectoring and demanding Labour's position. I can't remember the last time I seen the BBC interview a Tory in that manner.

Given it's the BBC, probably five minutes earlier.

[afleitch]

The government is fine. It held a vote on military action and failed. If however Syria takes a turn for the worst and hard evidence comes to light of chemical attacks it will probably rebound on the opposition.

[afleitch]

Blair poisoned the well. It took is a generation to get over Suez and it will take the same to get over Iraq. The public don't trust politicians, don't trust intervention and worst of all don't trust intelligence services.

[afleitch]

Labour now hinting it wants another vote on Syria. Oh dear.

[afleitch]

Teather was a major star in the party (especially after the massive swing in the Brent East by-election when she gained it), although her position was looking dodgy in  Brent Central come 2015, IIRC.

Al can help here.

Nobody'll miss her.

It was her marriage vote that killed her off.

[afleitch]

Wheeee.

[afleitch]

I don't normally like to cherry pick subsamples of polls, but as cherries on the other side of the tree get picked from time to time, here is today's YouGov 18-24 sample:
Lab 50
Con 29
Green 7
Lib Dem 6
UKIP 4
SNP/Plaid 2
Respect 1
Other other 1

As someone who, for his own amusement, does a 'tracker' absed on the Scottish samples which over the course of a week give you a decent sample size, yesterdays sample had Labour on 50% despite samples over the past few months having Labour boucning from 38-43. That screwed my tracker That jump in Scotland alone is enough to inflate Labour's lead by almost a full % point.

[afleitch]

http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/News/Northampton-News/Northampton-clown-strikes-again-with-another-spooky-visitation-14092013.htm

Amazing.

[afleitch]

Why must there be Conference Season?

So that reporters and pollsters can get extra Christmas money.

[afleitch]

I'm increasingly confident of a Tory seat victory in 2015, especially when the UKIP protest vote flows back.

[afleitch]

You get a gazillion points if you can spot someone who isn't white.

[afleitch]

The problem for Ed of course is that the big news of the conference (look! A policy!) was the energy bill pledge which is something that will be scrutinised and quietly dropped before the election. If it’s not, then come next year or early 2015 if Labour look as if they are performing well enough in the polls to be odds on favourites and energy bills go up significantly, my lot can say it’s going up faster because of the fear Labour coming in to power. At present most people accept that you can freeze it for a year or two but the moment you unfreeze then the bills will probably shoot back up again. So you have a double edged sword. The Tories can push for better regulation of the industry rather than promise a rash, short term freeze.

On building new houses at a rate of some 200,000 a year then that also has significant issues and is a more dangerous proposal. Labour are of course perhaps feeling a tad guilty for allowing 500,000 council houses being sold off during their watch during which time, with Chancellor Brown actually prohibiting local authorities from using the receipts from right-to-buy purchases to build new homes.

The first problem Labour have is planning; Labour have floated the relaxation of planning laws and the abilities of some towns/cities to be given a ‘right to grow’ beyond their own boundaries overriding neighbouring towns and authorities. Planning laws are there for a reason, a ‘free for all’ for the housing sector is not conducive to maintaining respect for the green belt and the urban footprint. The second issue is more an issue of local government reform. A city will not spend it’s own money or money given to it (as they used to do when building new towns) building outside it’s boundary unless it sees an extension of it’s own boundaries. The idea that Manchester will be allowed to override Bury in turn Bury override Lancashire is a planning and administrative nightmare. Potential developments will get bogged down in the courts whether pitting one LA against another or environmentalists against the planners unless you launch a full scale reform of local government

The truth is 200,000 homes will not be built a year. Planning, buying land, clearing land, building roads, hooking areas up to the grid and actually building while trying to steer a project through potential legal challenges will mean that most developments probably won’t start until the end of the first term. If you build a new town even of say 10,000 people, you still have to build associated infrastructure, such as roads and by-passes that extend beyond the footprint of the town. You’re giving rural and suburban Tories a huge electoral gift here.

If 200,000 homes actually were built in the first year then be very, very cautious of their quality because there’s no way to build planned developments in that short space of time. There are very few ‘shovel ready’ projects. Lastly, cities, mets and corporations don’t build homes anymore like they did in Macmillans day; all developments from house building to renovation and repair tend to be carried out by contracted private companies. There are legal requirements to put contracts out to tender. In either event you are essentially giving private companies public money and lot’s of it to build public homes.

I’m saying this as someone who is very much in favour of a house building programme, though within the existing footprints of cities.

[afleitch]

The Tories won't be pushing for any meaningful regulation of the energy sector for a whole range of reasons. Some are ideological. One is the fact that the industry's chief shill is none other than the extraordinarily awful Angela Knight, one time Tory MP and Economic Secretary to the Treasury and former chief shill for the banking industry.

As I said, the energy policy (with average household savings per day in the pennies for a short while) isn't the big problem. It's the housing policy; committing yourself to the biggest house building program since the 1950's by instigating a 1950's style 'f-ck you' approach to planning is dangerous particularly at the time that local authorities have ambition and have approaches (such as refurbishing old stock and replacing post-war housing) that don't require planning changes to get them off the ground, but money.

[afleitch]

While waiting for a Celtic match you can have hours of fun going through microfiche of the Daily Mail in the 1930's. It's really quite something.

[afleitch]

Sir Menzies Campbell, who looks considerably older than his seventy two years, is to retire at the next election. He's held N.E. Fife since 1987 and was once the leader of the LibDems for about five seconds.

The only stalwarts that might help the Lib Dems retain seats seem to be retiring (Malcolm Bruce etc)

[afleitch]

Some very disturbing developments re 'Plebgate'; a Police Federation stitch up from start to finish.

[afleitch]

There has been a narrowing of the polls (YouGov posted a trend graph a few days ago) and even post conference they have returned to where they were. It's good news for the Conservatives this far out from the GE.

We are currently undergoing a little Osbourne boomlet which while not immediately apparent in wages or prices (how 1970’s) is showing in the property market, the financial markets and other drivers of the economy. Those issues are the ‘donkey’ and cost of living issues are the ‘cart’ of economic recovery with the Tories focusing on the former and Labour on the latter. What other issues might point towards a Conservative recovery?

The truth is, the Tories haven’t had a ‘clusterf-ck’ so far. Indeed the Conservatives had a fairly lasting honeymoon with the electorate taking a huge noticeable dip after the omnishambles budget of April 2012. This also sowed the seeds of the UKIP surge which peaked (so far) a year later. However despite this, nothing the Conservatives have done either in the country or to themselves (and everyone has to take off their partisan hats here) has been noticeable catastrophic; by which I mean running into huge opposition across the opposition, the floating voters and their own base. Europe has generally been off the table and the party would do well to keep it that way. The marriage issue has subsided. The changes to the benefits system and the ‘Bedroom Tax’ are not making much noise within the Tory target groups and Labour have essentially accepted the status quo. Remember when the government was defeated over military action in Syria and the PM accepted it? It won’t be long before you forget about that. Royal Mail has just been privatised without a fuss. I want to say that again; Royal Mail has just been privatised without a fuss. This is an issue which dogged successive Tory and Labour governments however an organisation which still has a ‘beloved’ status, despite our grumblings over service, has just been sold off. It is worth noting of course that this sea change of indifference has much to do with changes in communication and the reduced role that the postal system has in our lives.

In the polls we have ICM with a gap of four, YouGov with a gap of four (which is very bouncy bouncy). It’s enough for Labour, probably, but it leaves them with little wriggle room. If the Lib Dems move back up and polls suggest a flood of current switchers to Labour then Labour will fall. If UKIP fade, then the Tories may benefit. It’s worth noting for comparison that in the first two weeks after Labour’s defeat in 2010, they were polling at around 32% with the Lib Dems at 21%. So even immediately after an election the polls weren't quite close to the election result weeks previously.

The Tories aren’t tanking, which is what they tend to do in between governments (and out of government in the Blair years) and that is important.

[afleitch]

The bastards axed Grangemouth.

[afleitch]

For the lowdown on Grangemouth

http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/robin-mcalpine/whats-really-happening-at-grangemouth-and-what-it-tells-us#.UmgO3BOWVdR.twitter

Cracking idea Grommit...

[afleitch]

So today I saw a shifty looking person with a pale child. Naturally I assumed they were a thieving gypo and called the authorities. Took a great comparison pic for the Daily Mail too but sadly it didn't make the cut as it's 'Tits Out Thursday.'

[afleitch]

Religion in Scotland 2011 by Holyrood constituency

[afleitch]

Is there any reason for the large difference between Orkney and Shetland?

Just very different economies; Shetlands is more skilled; increasingly oil based.

[afleitch]

Gay marriage at the 1st reading in the Scottish Parliament. Labour's Elaine Smith leading the 'No' charge with one of the most nonsensical arguments I have ever heard. Ruth Davidson and Marco Biaggi making great speeches. Green MSP Patrick Harvie talking now.

[afleitch]

Gay marriage at the 1st reading in the Scottish Parliament. Labour's Elaine Smith leading the 'No' charge with one of the most nonsensical arguments I have ever heard. Ruth Davidson and Marco Biaggi making great speeches. Green MSP Patrick Harvie talking now.

He knocks it out of the park. As does Labour's Elaine Murray.