UK General Discussion

[You kip if you want to...]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8094

Ashcroft has a new marginals poll out.

[YL]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8094

Ashcroft has a new marginals poll out.

There are three separate polls here.  There's an overall national poll with a fairly small sample, labelled the "National comparison poll" on Ashcroft's website; the headline figures are Lab 35 Con 30 UKIP 14 LD 11 Green 4.

Then there's a poll in the 32 closest Tory held Con-Lab marginals; this has a much larger sample size (nearly 10,000) and has figures for the standard voting intention question of Lab 42 Con 29 UKIP 14 LD 6 Green 5.  I haven't found the exact 2010 figures for these seats, but it looks like quite a good poll for Labour even if the size of the lead is a bit dependent on Tory voters switching to UKIP.  Ashcroft says the swing is 8.5% Con to Lab since 2010.

Finally there's a poll of the 8 closest Tory held Con-LD marginals.  These are a rather eclectic collection (something which always concerns me about this sort of poll)*.  Anyway, for the standard voting intention question he gets Con 33 Lab 24 LD 18 UKIP 14 Green 5; he then asked a further question "Thinking specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there", getting Con 32 LD 29 Lab 18 UKIP 12 Green 4.  He asked this question in the Con/Lab seats too, but it didn't make much difference there (it pushed Labour from 42% to 43%).

This suggests there's still some evidence of tactical voting in favour of the Lib Dems from voters who would otherwise vote Labour.  For me, it'd depend on the Lib Dem, so probably yes in St Ives but no in Taunton Deane.

* According to UKPollingReport, they're:
Camborne & Redruth
Oxford West & Abingdon
Truro & Falmouth
Newton Abbot
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Watford
Montgomeryshire
St. Albans

edit: changed the figures for the national poll to the turnout-adjusted ones.

[Leftbehind]

Some impressive Green figures there given they're polling 2% in most?

[You kip if you want to...]

Some impressive Green figures there given they're polling 2% in most?

True, but at this point is there anywhere they'd realistically be in with a chance beyond Brighton Pav.?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They've a good chance at knocking the accidental LibDem incumbent into third in Norwich South, but Labour will gain the seat.

[minionofmidas]

They've a good chance at knocking the accidental LibDem incumbent into third in Norwich South, but Labour will gain the seat.

Third would be vaguely impressive. Fifth is not exactly out of the question.

[afleitch]

http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/News/Northampton-News/Northampton-clown-strikes-again-with-another-spooky-visitation-14092013.htm

Amazing.

[Hnv1]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/uk-police-say-they-are-examining-new-information-on-princess-dianas-death/story-fni0b8dw-1226719638012

Tabloid garbage or the first sign of a British Republic?

[Silent Hunter]

This has already been reported in the British press; the police will have to look into it... then probably dismiss it as the garbage it is.

[YL]

Why is Jeremy Browne not a Tory?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's too right wing.

[You kip if you want to...]

You have to wonder why the likes of Browne (and Clegg and Alexander and Laws, etc) even came into Liberal Party politics in the first place, when they would've fit in just as well (if not better!) with the 40-something aged Tories who rose through the ranks under Major/Hague/IDS like Cameron and Osborne.

And they hardly joined the LibDems thinking they were gonna be PM one day, now did they?

Or does it come down to my own adage that the Liberals are merely for Tories who're too ashamed to call themselves Tories and lefties who're too snobbish to vote for working-class Labour Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tory membership figures story:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24143443

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why must there be Conference Season?

[afleitch]

Why must there be Conference Season?

So that reporters and pollsters can get extra Christmas money.

[countydurhamboy]

Why must there be Conference Season?

To give Andrew Neil something to bang on about?

I attempted to watch Nick Cleggs speech, lasted about half an hour. I think his speech and indeed his conference, has gone about as well as he could have realistically hoped. He has strengthened his position within his party. Some of his attack lines on the Tories may even work.

However it has struck me, on several occasions, that everyone at the Liberal Democrat Conference, including the media, exist in a bizarre parallel universe. They seem to think people will believe a word Nick Clegg says about any topic, give the LD any credit and that the parties unpopularity won't matter. They are in for a shock, I think.

[YL]

I attempted to watch Nick Cleggs speech, lasted about half an hour. I think his speech and indeed his conference, has gone about as well as he could have realistically hoped. He has strengthened his position within his party. Some of his attack lines on the Tories may even work.

However it has struck me, on several occasions, that everyone at the Liberal Democrat Conference, including the media, exist in a bizarre parallel universe. They seem to think people will believe a word Nick Clegg says about any topic, give the LD any credit and that the parties unpopularity won't matter. They are in for a shock, I think.

The impression I get is that they think that even if the party's underlying support crashes their local campaigning, and in particular the old "Labour can't win here; vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out" line, will rescue many of their seats.

... and yes, that line may seem a bit ridiculous to many now.  But they quote the Eastleigh by-election (though they very nearly lost it, of course) and also the "Thinking specifically about your own constituency" question in that Ashcroft marginals poll.

[countydurhamboy]

I attempted to watch Nick Cleggs speech, lasted about half an hour. I think his speech and indeed his conference, has gone about as well as he could have realistically hoped. He has strengthened his position within his party. Some of his attack lines on the Tories may even work.

However it has struck me, on several occasions, that everyone at the Liberal Democrat Conference, including the media, exist in a bizarre parallel universe. They seem to think people will believe a word Nick Clegg says about any topic, give the LD any credit and that the parties unpopularity won't matter. They are in for a shock, I think.

The impression I get is that they think that even if the party's underlying support crashes their local campaigning, and in particular the old "Labour can't win here; vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out" line, will rescue many of their seats.

... and yes, that line may seem a bit ridiculous to many now.  But they quote the Eastleigh by-election (though they very nearly lost it, of course) and also the "Thinking specifically about your own constituency" question in that Ashcroft marginals poll.

It would be foolish to doubt that the LD won't do relatively well in these seats with strong incumbents, I agree. However, I think this is limited.  If the tory vote holds up, a big if, but if does we could have a repeat of the 2011 locals, where the LD were slaughtered in large parts of the country by both parties.

I'm not trying to argue they will definitely be wiped out, but I think the political class should at least consider it. The LD's are polling at a level similar to their 1960's electoral results but the  LD, the media and the polling experts aren't even predicting a 20 seat loss. On the daily politics this week i've seen many LD's (as you would expect), but also pollsters and journalists all talking about LD prospects and most are only predicting a dozen losses. 
Last election there was a 1.35% swing from LD to CON. The conservative won a net 9 seats from them. Today UK polling report average shows a 4% swing....

The LD's biggest savour may be UKIP just as in Eastleigh. They should get Farage on that TV debate.

[You kip if you want to...]

I attempted to watch Nick Cleggs speech, lasted about half an hour. I think his speech and indeed his conference, has gone about as well as he could have realistically hoped. He has strengthened his position within his party. Some of his attack lines on the Tories may even work.

However it has struck me, on several occasions, that everyone at the Liberal Democrat Conference, including the media, exist in a bizarre parallel universe. They seem to think people will believe a word Nick Clegg says about any topic, give the LD any credit and that the parties unpopularity won't matter. They are in for a shock, I think.

The impression I get is that they think that even if the party's underlying support crashes their local campaigning, and in particular the old "Labour can't win here; vote Lib Dem to keep the Tories out" line, will rescue many of their seats.

... and yes, that line may seem a bit ridiculous to many now.  But they quote the Eastleigh by-election (though they very nearly lost it, of course) and also the "Thinking specifically about your own constituency" question in that Ashcroft marginals poll.

It would be foolish to doubt that the LD won't do relatively well in these seats with strong incumbents, I agree. However, I think this is limited.  If the tory vote holds up, a big if, but if does we could have a repeat of the 2011 locals, where the LD were slaughtered in large parts of the country by both parties.

I'm not trying to argue they will definitely be wiped out, but I think the political class should at least consider it. The LD's are polling at a level similar to their 1960's electoral results but the  LD, the media and the polling experts aren't even predicting a 20 seat loss. On the daily politics this week i've seen many LD's (as you would expect), but also pollsters and journalists all talking about LD prospects and most are only predicting a dozen losses.  
Last election there was a 1.35% swing from LD to CON. The conservative won a net 9 seats from them. Today UK polling report average shows a 4% swing....

The LD's biggest savour may be UKIP just as in Eastleigh. They should get Farage on that TV debate.

I agree. It'd take some FPTP-style mess up for a party to fall from 24% to 9-12% and only see a handful of losses.

And what nobody ever mentions about Eastleigh is that their vote still collapsed by 15% and by more than the Tory's vote fell by.

A 15% fall even in their "strongholds" in the West Country and the South East would be the story of election night. A 15% fall repeated across their incumbent seats ("just for fun", to quote Peter Snow) would give some eye-watering/mouth-watering (depending on your political persuasion) results.

They won't have UKIP to save them in all their seats. There's about 15-20 Liberal seats where they're fighting a losing battle for 2015 and plenty more which are too close to call.

[YL]

Oh, I agree they're probably being over-optimistic.  I doubt they'll be back to the taxi, though.

YouGov has come out with a Lab/Con tie on 36, UKIP on 12 and the Lib Dems on 10 towards the end of their conference week.  Hopefully this is an outlier.

[Leftbehind]

It looks it, but Labour's support has been evaporating since they started wheeling out their 'iron discipline' non-opposition. The polls leading up to it weren't significantly different.

Chukka only this Sunday claimed Labour committing to renationalise the Royal Mail would be "completely irresponsible" and this is who we're supposed to believe are our saviours from the coalition? Useless.

[afleitch]

I'm increasingly confident of a Tory seat victory in 2015, especially when the UKIP protest vote flows back.

[countydurhamboy]

Oh, I agree they're probably being over-optimistic.  I doubt they'll be back to the taxi, though.

YouGov has come out with a Lab/Con tie on 36, UKIP on 12 and the Lib Dems on 10 towards the end of their conference week.  Hopefully this is an outlier.

Todays Yougov shows just a 1% lead for Labour. Lab 35, Con 34, UKIP 11, LD 11. Milband needs to up his game and  get some policies, quickly, how hard can it be to repeal the bedroom tax?

I'm increasingly confident of a Tory seat victory in 2015, especially when the UKIP protest vote flows back.

For the first time I think this is possible. The economy is improving and Crosby has been very effective. Blue on Blue infighting has vanished. Electoral arithmetic is still against you though.

[countydurhamboy]

Oh Godfrey, what were you thinking?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkDfyLFFK84

UKIP are genuinely hilarious.

Edit: It seems he has had the whip withdrawn today, after calling the women at the UKIP conference sluts!

[afleitch]

You get a gazillion points if you can spot someone who isn't white.