Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Brittain33]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

How does that math work when NYC + LI + Westchester have been growing at half the rate of the country, if even that much? I would think that they can no longer support more than 15 districts.

[Brittain33]

Since I have 2018 estimates for population, let's (wrongly) assume that losses in 2019 and 2020 are evenly distributed across the state and NY loses 2 districts. 19,530,000 / 25 seats = 781k per district

Nassau + Suffolk = 3.6 seats
Nassau + Suffolk + Queens = 6.5 seats which is pretty much the current map, no?
LI + NYC = 14.3 seats - which is 1 seat overpopulated
LI + NYC + Westchester + Rockland = almost exactly 16 seats, again 1 seat overpopulated

Something's got to go in Brooklyn, Manhattan, or possibly the Bronx.

[Brittain33]

Considering the fact that The Establishment in NY hates AOC, NY-14 would probably be the obvious cut no?

The 2 biggest issues there are that it is a predominantly Hispanic majority-minority seat (and the Hispanic population has been growing, not shrinking) and if NY-14 were cut, AOC would simply run in whichever district overlapped the most. And I doubt any other incumbents really want to be paired in a primary against her. So they will probably try to find an incumbent that is about ready to retire anyway and just have them retire (there are a bunch in their 70s and even 80s). Jose Serrano is not running for re-election in NY-15 (neighboring Hispanic district).

Another thing to note - a side effect of all this is that Max Rose's NY-11 is going to have to pick up some significant extra population/area, which should be able to make it safe Democratic. In particular if (as they should) they give it some more heavily Dem parts of Brooklyn (Park Slope probably being the most obvious/easy) and give some of the more competitive/R parts to the majority-minority districts that are going to be needing more population.

The easiest path is for Nadler to retire or to have a fair fight with Carolyn Maloney. It feels unlikely they’d be pitted against each other.

The Harlem district isn’t really an African-American district any more.

[Brittain33]

California Texas Florida New York Pennsylvania Illinois Ohio Georgia North Carolina Michigan New Jersey Virginia Washington Arizona Massachusetts Tennessee Indiana Missouri Maryland Wisconsin Colorado Minnesota South Carolina Alabama Louisiana Kentucky Oregon Oklahoma Connecticut Utah Iowa Nevada Arkansas Mississippi Kansas New Mexico Nebraska West Virginia Idaho Hawaii New Hampshire Maine Montana Rhode Island Delaware South Dakota North Dakota Alaska Vermont Wyoming

39,512,223 28,995,881 21,477,737 19,453,561 12,801,989 12,671,821 11,689,100 10,617,423 10,488,084 9,986,857 8,882,190 8,535,519 7,614,893 7,278,717 6,892,503 6,829,174 6,732,219 6,137,428 6,045,680 5,822,434 5,758,736 5,639,632 5,148,714 4,903,185 4,648,794 4,467,673 4,217,737 3,956,971 3,565,287 3,205,958 3,155,070 3,080,156 3,017,825 2,976,149 2,913,314 2,096,829 1,934,408 1,792,147 1,787,065 1,415,872 1,359,711 1,344,212 1,068,778 1,059,361 973,764 884,659 762,062 731,545 623,989 578,759

52.589 35.497 26.545 27.355 17.932 18.113 16.285 13.677 13.461 13.953 12.411 11.294 9.493 9.024 9.243 8.959 9.153 8.454 8.150 8.028 7.100 7.487 6.529 6.748 6.400 6.126 5.408 5.296 5.045 3.902 4.301 3.812 4.116 4.190 4.028 2.907 2.578 2.616 2.213 1.920 1.858 1.875 1.397 1.486 1.268 1.149 0.949 1.003 0.883 0.796

52.476 38.510 28.525 25.836 17.002 16.830 15.524 14.101 13.929 13.264 11.797 11.336 10.113 9.667 9.154 9.070 8.941 8.151 8.029 7.733 7.648 7.490 6.838 6.512 6.174 5.934 5.602 5.255 4.735 4.258 4.190 4.091 4.008 3.953 3.869 2.785 2.569 2.380 2.373 1.880 1.806 1.785 1.419 1.407 1.293 1.175 1.012 0.972 0.829 0.769

Goodbye 53rd Good for gain of 3 Good for 2 27th is gone, 26th hanging on 18th is gone 18th is long gone Will just slip blow the threshold, goodbye 16th 14th is guaranteed 14th is gone 12th could be lost in 2030 Falls short of 12th 10th is certain Could save 9th in 2030 8th safe for now, but most likely gone in 2030 Guaranteed 8th Highly likely loss of 8th Farewell 7th 6th all but certain 5th could be lost in 2030 3rd safe for now 3rd is history Possible 3rd in 2030 2nd likely Loss of 2nd all but guaranteed

Looks like LA could be at risk of losing LA-06 at the 2030 census?

If Oregon is getting a 6th district at 5.602, wouldn't that require a much faster rate of decline in LA than we saw since 2010?

That said, a major hit to New Orleans is a distinct possibility in this decade.

[Brittain33]

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

Consider that those are all major metro areas located entirely in their states while NoVa represents, at best, 50% of one metro area minus the central city.

[Brittain33]

In 2021, there may be an emphasis on creating a districts that would be by a Hispanic candidate, essentially pairing Karen Bass and Maxine Waters.

By which we mean a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice, not necessarily a Hispanic candidate.

[Brittain33]

Do we really believe North Dakota's population hasn't declined at all since its surge?

[Brittain33]

The idea of California shedding multiple seats to other states is quite a paradigm shift but I can see how it could happen. Especially since it’s one of the first states to start to suffer significantly from climate change.