Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180215 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #750 on: March 26, 2020, 05:13:28 PM »

Interactive map:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/51-2019-county-population-change-mutlimap

Default map is 2010EB-2019 Percentage change. Click on Menu to see yearly maps, PCT (percentage) and NUM (numerical change), like 2018-19.
Your maps are always a welcome sight.

Thanks!

I threw this one together fairly quickly, so please let me know if there are any errors.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #751 on: March 26, 2020, 06:43:44 PM »

Florida might not gain it's second seat,  and Texas might not get it's third.



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cinyc
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« Reply #752 on: March 26, 2020, 08:45:19 PM »

Florida might not gain it's second seat,  and Texas might not get it's third.





The state numbers haven't changed at all since the December state estimates release. All we got today was the county breakdown of those state numbers. We'll get the further incorporated place breakdown in May.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #753 on: March 29, 2020, 09:29:41 PM »

What's the likelihood Coronavirus will have a significant impact on the census? I'm not thinking of the worst-case scenario of massive death tolls, so much as the likelihood that the census response rate is lower and more variable than usual and that the economic dislocation means fewer people move between states.

Yea the great recession really slowed down the Sun Belt's growth rate.
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Storr
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« Reply #754 on: March 30, 2020, 10:42:04 AM »
« Edited: March 30, 2020, 10:49:23 AM by Storr »

Florida might not gain it's second seat,  and Texas might not get it's third.




Ohio might not lose a seat? Now that's interesting. (Texas not getting a third, Florida not getting a second, and CA-53 for MT-2 area all intriguing, of course. But, Ohio has lost at least one seat after every census from 1970 on.)

Edit: Furthermore, after checking to see what other seats have changed since I last looked at a possible reapportionment map (late 2019), the Alabama GOP must be quite relieved if this holds and they don't lose a seat.
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AGA
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« Reply #755 on: April 05, 2020, 10:42:25 PM »

Has California ever lost a seat before?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #756 on: April 05, 2020, 11:43:27 PM »

Has California ever lost a seat before?
No. 2010 is the first apportionment it did not gain a seat.

From 1850 to 2010:

2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, -, 20, 23, 30, 38, 43, 45, 52, 53, 53

Current streaks:

FL 11* (since 1890)
TX 7 (since 1940)
AZ 6 (since 1950)

All are expected to extend the streak.

*If there had been an apportionment in 1920, Florida's streak would have broken. It only gained one seat between 1910 and 1930. Thus it would have had the same in 1910 and 1920, or in 1920 and 1940.

Current losing streaks.

PA 9 (since 1910, it lost two between 1910 and 1930, but it is possible those were both between 1920 and 1930).
NY 7 (since 1940)
OH 5 (since 1950)
MI 4 (since 1960)
IL 4 (since 1960)

Other long winning streaks:

CA 14 (1850 to 2000)
IL 9 (1820-1910)
MO 8 (1820-1900)
TX 7 (1850-1930)
NY 5 (1789*-1830)
PA 5 (1789*-1830)
PA 5 (1860-1910)
WI 5 (1850-1900)

1789* apportionment under Constitution, NY and PA gained under 1790 Census.

Other long losing streaks:

VA 6 (1810-1870*)

*Loss in 1870 due to separation of WV.

States that have never lost representatives:

AK, AZ, CA, CO, FL, HI, ID, NV, NM, OR, TX, UT, WA, WY.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #757 on: April 07, 2020, 01:09:49 PM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #758 on: April 07, 2020, 06:09:09 PM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade. 
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #759 on: April 08, 2020, 08:10:34 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2020, 08:14:37 AM by ProgressiveModerate »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade.  

Wow that's actually suprising, I wonder why that was, I thought VA was growing faster than the rest of the country overall, while the NE and Rust Belt were shrinking. If VA didn't gain and Republicans held onto OH-16 and AL-7 this cycle woukd be decent for them. I wonder if DE will ever gain a district because it's growing at a decent rate and is already at 950k people.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #760 on: April 08, 2020, 09:17:21 AM »

Wouldn't be a massive shock in a couple of decades' time. Barring significant change to the current party coalitions, it'd be pretty difficult to make the second seat Democratic without going for some extremely squirrelly lines.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #761 on: April 08, 2020, 10:57:39 AM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade.  

Wow that's actually suprising, I wonder why that was, I thought VA was growing faster than the rest of the country overall, while the NE and Rust Belt were shrinking. If VA didn't gain and Republicans held onto OH-16 and AL-7 this cycle woukd be decent for them. I wonder if DE will ever gain a district because it's growing at a decent rate and is already at 950k people.

973k, a gain of 76k since the census.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #762 on: April 08, 2020, 11:19:59 AM »

Wouldn't be a massive shock in a couple of decades' time. Barring significant change to the current party coalitions, it'd be pretty difficult to make the second seat Democratic without going for some extremely squirrelly lines.

Yes, in general any population growth in Western states helps Dems in mapping and any population growth in Southern (and a DE-02 would be very Southern-flavored) areas helps Reps.  Texas is ambiguous.  This has to do with the prevalence of small towns in outlying areas.
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peenie_weenie
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« Reply #763 on: April 08, 2020, 11:40:42 AM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

It would have to be a massive several 100K undercount for VA to gain.  VA actually fell below nationwide growth in the second half of the decade.  

Wow that's actually suprising, I wonder why that was, I thought VA was growing faster than the rest of the country overall, while the NE and Rust Belt were shrinking.

VA is experiencing growth along the I-95 corridor but Appalachia and the Southside are shrinking. There are still a lot of rural areas of the state; anywhere more than an hour outside of a metro area (Richmond, Roanoke, Charlottesville, Hampton Roads) is not attracting enough people to compensate for brain drain.

Looking at decline in SWVA I bet VA-09 is drawn to include Roanoke. Wouldn't make the seat competitive in a normal year but maybe this would be vulnerable in a D-wave.
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« Reply #764 on: April 09, 2020, 07:17:16 PM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #765 on: April 09, 2020, 08:13:07 PM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

Well, federal employment there got a major boost from the early 2000's defense buildup and late 2000's stimulus spending and many people (myself included at the time) tried to project that forward indefinitely.  In practice, NOVA's growth over and above nationwide growth ended with the sequester.  Early Trump admin federal cuts may have turned it to an absolute decline in population by 2018 in some counties.  However, it's possible growth could pick up again if there is more federal hiring to respond to the current crisis. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #766 on: April 09, 2020, 08:27:19 PM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

Consider that those are all major metro areas located entirely in their states while NoVa represents, at best, 50% of one metro area minus the central city.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #767 on: May 05, 2020, 12:23:53 AM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

NOVA is growing pretty fast.  Loudoun county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country.  But Fairfax has stalled out.  Also, I think Virginia always has net domestic out migration more than most other southern states so NOVA has to make up for that while also offsetting population loss.  I suspect some of the rural population loss in states like Georgia and NC is just being shifted to other areas of the state whereas rural population loss in Virginia is going elsewhere.  But yeah, it's definitely not growing as fast as Atlanta, Phoenix, or the Texas cities. 

People tend to hype up NOVA not because it's growth is that massive but because its growth has shifted the politics of the state massively.  It's having a more pronounced effect than Atlanta is with respect to Georgia.   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #768 on: May 09, 2020, 10:48:59 AM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

NOVA is growing pretty fast.  Loudoun county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country.  But Fairfax has stalled out.  Also, I think Virginia always has net domestic out migration more than most other southern states so NOVA has to make up for that while also offsetting population loss.  I suspect some of the rural population loss in states like Georgia and NC is just being shifted to other areas of the state whereas rural population loss in Virginia is going elsewhere.  But yeah, it's definitely not growing as fast as Atlanta, Phoenix, or the Texas cities. 

People tend to hype up NOVA not because it's growth is that massive but because its growth has shifted the politics of the state massively.  It's having a more pronounced effect than Atlanta is with respect to Georgia.   

To put this in perspective, there are several rural VA counties that had a higher population at the 1st US census in 1790 than they do today.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #769 on: May 09, 2020, 08:36:55 PM »

Could COVID cost NY another EV? People seem to be moving ou of the state, and at least 20k people have died and this number is growing
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #770 on: May 10, 2020, 02:50:25 PM »

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #771 on: May 10, 2020, 03:48:56 PM »

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.
It's usually right before Memorial Day
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #772 on: May 11, 2020, 05:34:30 AM »

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.
It's usually right before Memorial Day
Okay, thanks.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #773 on: May 15, 2020, 12:47:15 PM »

Does anyone know when in May the 2019 estimates at the municipal level are to come out?  Or will that even be in May as planned or will it be delayed due to COVID-19?  The March release of county-level estimates wasn't delayed, but those were likely pretty much finalized by the time things started getting crazy.

12:01 AM EDT, 21 May 2020.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #774 on: May 15, 2020, 01:57:30 PM »

I would be shocked if OH didn't lose a congressional seat this cycle. Also, I think VA might actually gain another electoral vote, as NOVA is historically undercounted, but it'll be a close call.

Why are people hyping up NOVA's growth when VA has not gained a EV in a very long time? If NOVA was another Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas or Houston then VA would be gaining EV's like AZ, TX, FL or GA.

NOVA is growing pretty fast.  Loudoun county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country.  But Fairfax has stalled out.  Also, I think Virginia always has net domestic out migration more than most other southern states so NOVA has to make up for that while also offsetting population loss.  I suspect some of the rural population loss in states like Georgia and NC is just being shifted to other areas of the state whereas rural population loss in Virginia is going elsewhere.  But yeah, it's definitely not growing as fast as Atlanta, Phoenix, or the Texas cities. 

People tend to hype up NOVA not because it's growth is that massive but because its growth has shifted the politics of the state massively.  It's having a more pronounced effect than Atlanta is with respect to Georgia.   
Yeah what's more likely to happen than Virginia getting a 12th district is a push in by 2030 to make va 1st and va 10th lean d.
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