Oregon 2020 GE PRES Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 4.0

Sutherlin



Located about 15-20 Minutes drive North of Roseburg along I-5, Sutherlin is the 2nd largest City in Douglas County with a population of roughly 8k.

The population has an even smaller minority population than Douglas County as a whole, and tends to be significantly older than Oregon at large (Roughly 33% of the pop is 60+ Years).

The Median Household Income at ~$36k is significantly lower than the rest of the County, and only 11.8% has a Bachelors Degree or higher, which also places it significantly below the County average.

The local employment base is most heavily populated by the Health Care, Retail, and Hospitality Industries (The latter significantly disproportionately represented), with Production and Education both at 11% (The latter again disproportionately represented).

In terms of occupations, Food Service, Transportation, and Material Movement are all over-represented, while Management and Business Occupations are under-represented.

Sutherlin, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:

BONUS 1988 & 1992 US PRES:

1988 US-PRES:

DEM-   909     (49.3%)        +0.9% DEM
PUB-    892     (48.4%)
TOTAL- 1,844

1992 US-PRES:

DEM-   854      (35.6%)      +2.0% PUB
PUB-    902      (37.6%)
Perot-  636       (26.5%)
TOTAL- 2,401     



Sutherlin, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 % Votes, Margins, and Swings:



Several Observations:

1.) A significant increase in Total Votes between '16 and '20 does not appear to have benefitted Democrats.

2.) Democratic Presidential candidates have been eviscerated in Sutherlin in every election for the past (20) Years.

There was a brief bright spot in 2008, where there was almost a +5% DEM swing, but those gains were short-lived and eliminated by 2012.

3.) Democrats hit a record low in 2016 with HRC, while Trump hit a record high for a Republican.

4.) Despite almost 10% voting 3rd Party in 2016, Sutherlin still narrowly swung Trump in 2020, who once again hit a record high.

Sutherlin, Oregon- GE SEN 2002 to 2020 Raw Votes:



Sutherlin, Oregon- GE SEN 2002 to 2020 % Votes, Margins, and Swings:



Several Observations:

1.) Sutherlin has also consistently voted Republican for US-SEN since 2002, with the one exception being Ron Wyden's re-election in '04 when he was cruising to a +30% Statewide win, losing only (3) small counties in SE Oregon.

2.) Democrats managed to bag a fairly respectable 38-42% of the vote in 2010, 2014, and 2016, with Republican vote shares and margins being significantly lower than one might expect for a City that is so Republican at the Presidential level.

3.) This changed significantly in 2020 with the Democrats showing their worst performance for SEN since Gordon Smith's (R) reelection win in 2002.

Sutherlin, Oregon- GE US REP 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:



Sutherlin, Oregon- GE US REP 2000 to 2020 % Votes, Margins, and Swings:



Several Observations:

1.) We see a similar pattern as to Roseburg previously.

DeFazio won Sutherlin between 2000 and 2006, with overwhelming numbers in '00 / '02, and still respectable margins for such a Republican City in '04 & '06.

2.) 2008 did not have a Republican contesting.

3.) We observe a similar heavily Republican swing in 2010, but that resets in 2012 & 2014 with effectively DeFazio tied with Art Robinson.

4.) Even in 2016 with massive swings in Sutherlin towards Trump at the Presidential Level, DeFazio only loses the City by 2%.

5.) In 2020, DeFazio loses by a landslide, despite running a few points ahead of Biden.

DRUG REFORM Ballot MEASURES:

# 109:  (Shrooms)                                            37%-63% NO

# 110:  (Decriminalization of Hard Drugs)           41%-59% NO

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 5.0

Winston:



( I couldn't find a free common use picture easily available for one of the Mills located around Town).

Winston is the 3rd largest City in Douglas County located around 10 Miles Southwest of Roseburg.

Perhaps most well known throughout Oregon, as well as elsewhere on the West Coast for the (600) acre wildlife safari just outside of Town, the local economy has been much more closely tied to Timber since WW II.

http://www.winstonoregon.net/winston-oregon-historical-information-background/

Winston actually has a slightly lower Anglo population than Douglas County at large (86%), with a much more varied age distribution than some other places within the County, with significant zigs and zags between age cohorts.

Despite having a smaller Senior Base, the MHI is only $31.9k / Year, which actually places it towards the bottom of places within Douglas County.

Only 9.2% of the population has a Bachelor's Degree or higher, which again places it well below Douglas County numbers, which are already significantly below Statewide and National averages.

In terms of the workforce, almost 20% of the population is employed in the Manufacturing Industry!

Retail & Health Care each represent roughly 16% of Industrial Employments, with Construction and Transportation both running significantly above Statewide averages.

In terms of Occupations, Administrative, Sales & Related, Personal Care, Production, Transportation fill all of the top slots, and again well exceed Statewide averages, with roughly 60% of the work-force fitting into those categories.

The Production numbers are most likely closely associated with the presence of a large Roseburg Forest Products Mill a short few minutes drive down State Highway 99, which is right next door to the Dillard Mill, with Hoover Treated Wood Products being located within City Limits.

Winston, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:

BONUS 1988 & 1992 US PRES:

1988 US-PRES:

DEM-     643     (49.7%)        +1.9% DEM
PUB-      618     (47.8%)
TOTAL- 1,293

1992 US-PRES:

DEM-   453      (29.5%)       +14.5% PUB
PUB-    674      (44.0%)
Perot-  405      (26.4%)
TOTAL- 1,533



Winston, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 % Votes, Margins, and Swings:



Winston- United States Senate 2002 to 2020:





Winston- United States House 2000 to 2020:





DRUG REFORM Ballot MEASURES:

# 109:  (Shrooms)                                            40%-60% NO

# 110:  (Decriminalization of Hard Drugs)           42%-58% NO

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 6.0

Reedsport:



Reedsport is the 4th largest City in Douglas County, located along the Umpqua River, just a few Miles from the Pacific Ocean.

Historically a Town based upon Fishing, the explosion of the Timber Industry in Oregon, brought decent paying and stable jobs to the Community for decades, until the International Paper Mill in Gardiner (Two Mills North of Town) was shuttered in 1999.

The IP Mill for Decades, was one of the largest employers on the Oregon Coast, and I recall driving past the Mill multiple times in my younger years when it was active, as well as afterwards.

The Post Mill Industrial landscape is something which might remind one of a former War Zone, and a legacy to both the failures of the Oregon Timber Industry to maintain sustainable logging practices, but also the many workers over the decades, who worked in a well paying Union Mill, where safety practices were generally much better than in privately owned Timber Mills.

Reedsport has never fully recovered from the closure of the IP Mill, and although Tourism does provide jobs, they are frequently seasonal and do not pay anywhere close to the base wages plus over-time opportunities provided to the skilled Millworkers and contractors, including Union Electricians, Union Construction workers, etc who helped maintain and renovate this giant facility.

Social Demographics:

Reedsport is again a community where there is a relatively small minority population (~ 15%).

Reedsport is a pretty "Old Community"--- Almost 19% of the Population is 70+ / Yrs and 36% of the population is 60+ / Yrs.

Household Income skews low at only $32.7k / Yr and Educational attainment only includes about 15% with a Bachelors Degree or higher.

Economic Sectors: Of those currently in the workforce, roughly 22% are directly employed by Federal, State, County, and Local Government jobs.

Industries: Health Care & Retail Workers are somewhat close to Statewide Averages. Construction (11%)and Education (9.5%), appear to be disproportionately represented, as is Government (8%).

Occupations show a similar pattern: (Construction 11%, Education 9%).

Reedsport, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:

BONUS 1988 & 1992 US PRES:

1988 US-PRES:

DEM-    1,164    (58.3%)        +18.4% DEM
PUB-       797    (39.9%)
TOTAL- 1,998

1992 US-PRES:

DEM-   1,035      (43.8%)       +14.3% DEM
PUB-      696       (29.5%)
Perot-    627       (26.5%)
TOTAL- 2,363





Reedsport- United States Senate 2002 to 2020:





Reedsport, Oregon- GE US REP 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:





DRUG REFORM Ballot MEASURES:

# 109:  (Shrooms)                                            44%-56% NO

# 110:  (Decriminalization of Hard Drugs)           48%-52% NO

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 7.0

Myrtle Creek:



Myrtle Creek is the 5th largest City in Douglas County, with a population of around 3.5k.

Roughly a 20-25 Minute Drive from Roseburg if you are heading South on the I-5.

History of Myrtle Creek:

https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/1374/Myrtle_Creek_Compplan.pdf?sequence=1

Social Demographics:

Race / Ethnicity: Actually only 82% Anglo

Age: Not as old as one might expect, only 27% of the POP is 60+ / Yrs.

Income: MHI $40.3k / Ye

Educational Attainment: 19% with a Bachelors Degree or Higher

Industries:

17% employed in the Hospitality Sector (!!!)
13% Retail
11% Agricultural    (!!!)
10% Manufacturing

Occupations:

Personal Care-  15%
Administration- 12%
Food Service- 11%
Facilities- 10%

Myrtle Creek, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:

BONUS 1988 & 1992 US PRES:

1988 US-PRES:

DEM-     464    (43.2%)        +10.2% PUB
PUB-     578     (53.4%)
TOTAL- 1,073

1992 US-PRES:

DEM-     371      (29.2%)       +12.0% PUB
PUB-      523      (41.2%)
Perot-    375      (29.6%)
TOTAL- 1,269

*** Perot placed 2nd ***

Myrtle Creek, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Votes:





Myrtle Creek- United States Senate 2002 to 2020:





Myrtle Creek, Oregon- GE US REP 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:





DRUG REFORM Ballot MEASURES:

# 109:  (Shrooms)                                            41%-59% NO

# 110:  (Decriminalization of Hard Drugs)           42%-58% NO

I will forgo comments at the present moment, and simply post the numbers....

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 8.0

Canyonville:



Canyonville, Oregon is the 5th largest Municipality in Douglas County, with a population of about 2.2k.

Located towards the Southern Portion of the County off of I-5, and part of the "Tri-Cities" area, roughly a 30 Minute drive South of Roseburg, we hit the Seven Feathers Casino and RV Resort, which is a key part of the local economy and one of the largest Private Sector employers in Douglas Count, which is likely part of reason why Myrtle Creek has such a large % of the work-force in the Hospitality Sector, considering the relative proximity for commuters who work at the Casino.

Social Demographics:

Race / Ethnicity: 88% Anglo. Mixed at almost 8% likely is because of a Higher % of Native Americans, who get almost first dibs at Casino jobs on Native Land, depending upon their skills, knowledge, and experience.

Age: 29% of the POP is 60+ / Yrs, part of which might be explained by the Mobile Home Park / RV Park, which house a significant number of year around residents attracted to the "Casino Lifestyle".

Income: MHI $35.8k / Year  (Not unusual for heavily Senior Communities).

Educational Attainment: 7.4% with a Bachelors Degree or Higher

Industries:

18.3% employed in the Hospitality Sector (!!!)
15.5% Manufacturing
14.8% Entertainment
11.4% Transportation

Occupations:

Food Service-        16%
Production-           13%
Transportation-      11%
Personal Care-       10%
Material Movement- 7%

Canyonville, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:

BONUS 1988 & 1992 US PRES:

1988 US-PRES:

DEM-     196    (42.1%)        +13.3% PUB
PUB-      258    (55.4%)
TOTAL-   466

1992 US-PRES:

DEM-     150      (24.5%)       +19.0% PUB
PUB-      266     (43.5%)
Perot-    193      (31.5%)
TOTAL-   612

*** Perot placed 2nd ***

Canyonville, Oregon- GE PRES 2000 to 2020 Votes:





Canyonville- United States Senate 2002 to 2020:





Canyonville, Oregon- GE US REP 2000 to 2020 Raw Votes:





DRUG REFORM Ballot MEASURES:

# 109:  (Shrooms)                                            37%-63% NO

# 110:  (Decriminalization of Hard Drugs)           46%-54% NO

I will forgo comments at the present moment, and simply post the numbers...

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 9.0

Rural Precincts:

So I've pretty much covered all of the Municipalities within Douglas County, with the exception of a few extremely small communities, which collectively represent ~4% of the Douglas County 2020 GE PRES Vote Share:

Elkton, Drain, Yoncalla, Oakland, Riddle, and Glendale.

So here is a map of the GE-PRES Results for Rural Precincts in Douglas County from 2012 > 2020.



Any astute viewer will not that I am missing Precinct # 8 from the map (which is basically an Uninc area directly to the West of Roseburg).


I do have precinct data from '88 > '08 from Douglas County, so I might decide to include results for Rural Precincts if I can easily transfer the data sets.

Still, I would not want to wrap off the Douglas County Chapter of the Oregon Results, without at least doing somewhat of a more detailed dive, into places which collectively represented something like 57% of the entire GE 2020 Voters in Douglas County.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 9.1

Rural Precincts:

Precinct 1: Rural Coast & Mountains



This precinct overlaps with the "Reedsport School District 105" boundaries (Excepting the City of Reedsport itself), which makes it a bit easier to look at the Social Demographic mix, than what otherwise might appear to be the case.

I pulled up a hard copy of a 1940 US Census Map of Election Precincts in OR, and attempted to match against precincts in the 2010s, and it appears that the following precincts were all absorbed into this precinct:



*** Note Douglas County Precincts remained consistent from the 1980s > 2010, with the exception of some precinct " A & B" consolidations ***

The Closure of the International Paper Mill in 1999 in Gardiner, Oregon was devastating to the local Economy.

Decent Paying Union Jobs which have been relatively stable over the decades and generations of workers in small tight-knit communities, are key components of a local economy...

Precinct 1--- Rural Douglas Oregon- GE PRES 1988 to 2020 Raw Votes:

[NOVA Green]

So--- I went through and did some Maintenance to the thread by updating some of the placeholders at the top of the thread:

1.) This includes updating the County Level Directory to include detailed breakdown and links to the various breakdowns of Douglas County.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7750276#msg7750276

2.) Using the next placeholder to create a link to all of the contributions that multiple posters have made on the thread breaking down 2020 GE PRES results by Municipality. THANK YOU ALL !!!

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7750277#msg7750277

3.) Using the next placeholder to create a link to any user generated precinct maps, starting with Skye's Metro PDX 2020 GE PRES precinct Map (Excellent Work)!

I know that there are other posters, such as MB who are planning on working on a Statewide Precinct Map, as well as others possibly considering working on future precinct map projects, and I just want to make sure these posts don't get buried, in what will likely be a fairly long thread over a period of time.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7750280#msg7750280

4.) Side note: Part of the reason that it is taking so long for me to move through individual areas, is that I want to ensure that new content is added (not just the 2020 GE results), but additionally much more historical election data, since I have precinct data for most counties for GE PRES in OR from '88-2020, so I'm trying to work those into the mix as well.

5.) I will probably be doing some cleanup and possibly deleting some of my earlier posts to clean out some of outdated or extraneous content.

[Rand]

Excellent analaysis of Roseburg. Most of my family still lives in Douglas County and most of them grew more conservative during the Obama presidency. COVID hasn’t hit that area too hard, so Trump’s performance doesn’t surprise me considering the level of intransigence on the part of Roseburg voters. And my relatives.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 9.2

Rural Precincts:

Precinct 4: Rural Northern Douglas County:



NOTE: In Order to attempt to maintain consistent precinct data between pre 2010 elections, I am including the Municipalities of Drain & Yoncalla into the post 2010 GE PRES numbers.

I have coded the following precincts from the 2000s into the Present data precinct boundaries of Precinct #4.



For 1988, I am including the Following precincts:

10--- Elkton City
10a-- East Elkton
10b-- West Elkton
11-- Drain City
12-- North Drain Cty
13--- Comstock
14-- Yoncalla City
14a-- Yoncalla County
16--- North Calapooya
16a-- South Calapooya
16b--- North Tyee


Precinct 4--- Rural North Douglas Oregon- GE PRES 1988 to 2020 Raw Votes and %:





Several Observations:

1.) So again we see some similar patterns with the Coastal Communities of Reedsport and the surrounding Rural areas, although the former were long "Ancestral Democratic" communities, as was virtually the entire Oregon Coast since the 1930s.

2.) We observe the massive Perot vote in 1992, and with that drop-off a significant Republican swing in 1996.

3.) Al Gore effectively cratered in 2000, where most likely his environmental policies were seen as negatively impacting a heavily timber based community.

4.) In 2004, a significant swing towards the Democratic Presidential Candidate, as 3rd Party '00 voters likely moved back towards the Democratic column.

5.) The War in Iraq is on everyone's minds as we headed into 2008, as as the economy tanked, we saw Obama received the highest % here, since Mike Dukakis 20 Years before.

6.) This all changed in 2016 as Trump receives the highest % for a PUB since before '88 and HRC a record low.

7.) My original presumption was that in 2020, 3rd Party Vote shares (as well as defections from Trump 2020 Voters), combined with a dramatic increase in voters because of Oregon's Automatic Voter Registration through the DMV, would at least swing the needle back.

8.) My assumptions and presumptions were obviously flawed, as Northern Douglas County actually swung +0.3% Trump between '16 and '20.

[NOVA Green]

Excellent analaysis of Roseburg. Most of my family still lives in Douglas County and most of them grew more conservative during the Obama presidency. COVID hasn’t hit that area too hard, so Trump’s performance doesn’t surprise me considering the level of intransigence on the part of Roseburg voters. And my relatives.

Thanks Rafe!

Honestly I felt like I cut Roseburg a bit short, considering that I do have precinct results pre 2012.

I do not have a Pre 2012 precinct map, but I *might* be able to "reverse engineer" precincts, since I believe that Roseburg City precincts were coded based upon Public School locations--- old memory that might be inaccurate (Even although OR had already gone all VbM).   

[NOVA Green]

Excellent analaysis of Roseburg. Most of my family still lives in Douglas County and most of them grew more conservative during the Obama presidency. COVID hasn’t hit that area too hard, so Trump’s performance doesn’t surprise me considering the level of intransigence on the part of Roseburg voters. And my relatives.

Thanks Rafe!

Honestly I felt like I cut Roseburg a bit short, considering that I do have precinct results pre 2012.

I do not have a Pre 2012 precinct map, but I *might* be able to "reverse engineer" precincts, since I believe that Roseburg City precincts were coded based upon Public School locations--- old memory that might be inaccurate (Even although OR had already gone all VbM).   

Roseburg--- OR--- 1988 to 2020 GE PRES Results:


*** 1988 Results include Precincts 36 > 47a ***





Not uncommon traditional pattern in Downstate, Oregon where frequently Republicans used to perform better in the Cities than in some rural areas, but WOW Dukakis appears to have performed better outside the largest City than within the rest of the County...

Roseburg Ward II really stands out from prelim numbers....

More to come later, now that I think I got the coding cracked for precincts....

[mileslunn]

Wondering if east of the Cascades Democrats have any other pockets.  Deschutes County was only one Biden won, but any towns or cities in other counties Biden might have won.  Not sure if any major ski resorts or tourist areas.  There are though some areas that are majority Hispanic where agriculture is big so possible Biden won in those areas.  I know in Eastern Washington, specifically Yakima County, many of the unincorporated areas and smaller farm towns that are over 70% Hispanic voted for Biden even though county went for Trump.  It does seem in Pacific Northwest, Trump didn't gain amongst Hispanics unlike in other states.

[NOVA Green]

Wondering if east of the Cascades Democrats have any other pockets.  Deschutes County was only one Biden won, but any towns or cities in other counties Biden might have won.  Not sure if any major ski resorts or tourist areas.  There are though some areas that are majority Hispanic where agriculture is big so possible Biden won in those areas.  I know in Eastern Washington, specifically Yakima County, many of the unincorporated areas and smaller farm towns that are over 70% Hispanic voted for Biden even though county went for Trump.  It does seem in Pacific Northwest, Trump didn't gain amongst Hispanics unlike in other states.

East of the Cascades has pretty slim pickings for Dems... (Outside of the obvious exceptions of Hood River--- including some rural areas outside of the City & Bend).

Sure there used to be quite a few Ancestral DEMs (Especially in NE Oregon), but those days are pretty much gone.

The Dalles voted Biden in 2020, and only narrowly went Trump in 2016 (3rd Party DEM defections), and historically has a continued strong Ancestral DEM presence (Wasco County was on my potential flip list for OR in 2020).

You have Dems in Jefferson County on the Warm Springs Indian Reservation precincts (Although some Non-Natives also live there as well, no not as heavily DEM as many other Native Precincts).

Although there are large Latino populations in Malheur County and along the Columbia River Gorge in Morrow and Umatilla Counties, many are not Eligible Voters.

There are a few surprising DEM pockets in a few of the Cities (Biden almost won a precinct in La Grande and another in Pendleton) for example.

Klamath Falls usually has a few DEM pockets, my memory off-hand is slightly hazy, but believe one might be around Oregon Institute of Technology, or possibly a precinct with a large Native American population.

Biden won both the Sunriver and Black Butte resorts in Deschutes County by convincing margins in 2020.

Other than that, depending upon how you define "East of the Cascades", that's probably just about everything.

[mileslunn]

Here is Josephine County

Cave Junction: Trump 58.03% - Biden 38.88%

Grants Pass: Trump 58.93% - Biden 37.98%

[mileslunn]

Klamath County

Bonanza: Trump 85.11% - Biden 13.06%

Chiloquin: Biden 50.42% - Trump 45.42%

Klamath Falls: Trump 57.56% - Biden 38.57%

Malin:  Trump 69.46% - Biden 25.50%

Merrill: Trump 64.66% - Biden 32.76%

Chiloquin is 50% Native American thus why Biden won it.

[mileslunn]

Here is Curry County

Brookings: Trump 58.28% - Biden 38.97%

Gold Beach: Trump 54.65% - Biden 41.79%

Port Orford: Biden 58.31% - Trump 39.09%

Guessing Port Orford more touristy or perhaps well to do retirees while Trump areas more blue collar types?  Biden did better in unincorporated northern coastal than southern coastal areas too.

[mileslunn]

Here is Linn County

Albany: Biden 48.7% - Trump 46.8%

Brownsville: Trump 63.96% - Biden 33.21%

Gates: Trump 61.54% - Biden 38.46%

Halsey: Trump 67.67% - Biden 28.54%

Harrisburg: Trump 67.73% - Biden 30.10%

Idanha: Trump 80.49% - Biden 19.51%

Lebanon: Trump 58.26% - Biden 40.56%

Lyons: Trump 74.48% - Biden 23.56%

Mill City: Trump 66.2% - Biden 30.62%

Millersburg: Trump 63.3% - Biden 32.94%

Scio: Trump 66.98% - Biden 28.84%

Sodaville: Trump 65.75% - Biden 30.59%

Sweet Home: Trump 67.34% - Biden 28.98%

Tangent: Trump 60.89% - Biden 35.05%

Waterloo: Trump 74.64% - Biden 23.19%

[Rand]

[NOVA Green]

Polk County- Oregon 1.0

Demographic Overview:





Located in the Northwestern part of the Willamette Valley, Polk County rarely attracts that much attention even among Oregon political junkies these days for multiple possible reasons:

1.) It is a relatively small population County with a relatively small voting population.

2.) It doesn't have any one large defining population center, unlike many other Counties in Oregon, but rather a mixture of smaller / medium sized Cities, as well as a decent rural population.

3.) Although Polk County generally is a bit Republican leaning politically, it is actually fairly closely divided, meaning that unlike Republican voting behemoths like Linn & Douglas Counties, you aren't going to be seeing generally rack up huge raw election vote margins.

4.) My coverage of Polk County in the 2016 OR GE PRES Election was extremely limited, and honestly although it was half-way through the series, failed to really deliver much detail, although I had expanded and added in some '08 GE PRES numbers to the mix, as well as naturally including '12 GE PRES, numbers by municipality, it somehow feels a bit lacking, and definitely worthy as Candidate #2 for the 2020 OR GE PRES thread.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5480145#msg5480145

History:

The original European settlers / colonizers were heavily dominated by New England Protestant and Abolition leaning communities, with the rough division between the Pro-Abolition and Pro-Slavery settler population roughly including every County from Lane County to the South... (Although Benton County was a bit more divided with Philomath being an Abolitionist stronghold and Corvallis being much more Pro-Southern).

Although Polk County was predominately leaning Republican during the Civil War, it was not exclusively so with Independence and Dallas rivalling with each other for the location of the County Seat.

Still, for anyone who has travelled extensively throughout the county it is not unusual to see the classic NE Protestant Church style of architecture, covered bridges, and even the classic "Red Barn" NE style of painting...

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-barns-red-2017-2

Polk County has long had a deeply rooted "Ancestral Republican" population as a direct result of land ownership and population distribution characteristics which goes back to even prior to the Civil War.

The forced migration of the Rogue Nation, which was a Proud Native Nation in Southern Oregon, who were cleared out forcibly as part of their resistance to the "Gold Settlers" in Southern Oregon, was effectively the last major "Indian War" in the US, where Native Populations resisted the settler populations attempt to conquer their land, created a Native American Reservation in NW Polk County, and was effectively the Oregon equivalent of the "Trail of Tears", which consolidated both the Native Refugees from Southern Oregon with mixed bands of Coastal Native American populations.

https://www.grandronde.org/

Still it even in the 1930s Polk County was still an overwhelmingly Rural County, with the agricultural sector being much less impacted than many other parts of Oregon from the impacts of the Great Depression, despite what was on average a relatively low land-size when it comes to acreage vs farmer.

Woody Guthrie referenced the "Hop Growing in Oregon" as part of the Migrant Agricultural Labor scene during the days of the dustbowl, which actually was a bit of a gig around the County, which is a bit interesting looking at the shifting demographic patterns of rural agricultural labor from 1930 > 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH2DJvgNlMA

Still, basically Polk County, OR was a relatively no drama rural county, with no massive labor unrest and strikes, without any significant increase in population until sometime around the 1970s, where we get a wave of folks seeking the "alternative dream" in places like Oregon and Colorado.

Even at the time of Youth Unrest during the Vietnam era, Polk County was pretty boring. The only action taking places was down in Eugene where there was an escalation series of street clashes between '68 and '71, and also up in Portland Oregon at Portland State University after the unrest after the deaths of (4) College Students at Kent State University (Ohio) triggered a National Student Rebellion, after the lies of the Nixon Administration when it came to the expansion of the War to Laos and Cambodia had gotten released.

Naturally Polk County has had changes and grown in Population... not just 1970 > 2000, but also significant numbers even between 2010 > 2020.

I had Polk County on my 2020 GE PRES Flip List, where I was modelling a Biden +6-8% National Win.











Polk County--- Oregon Demographics:

Race / Ethnicity: 

Anglo:   79.3%
Latino:  13.0%
Other:    7.6%

AGE:

65+:     16.75%
55-64:   12.74%
45-54:   11.8%
35-44:   11.2%
18-34:    24.1%
0-17:     23.4%

Household Income:

Polk County actually over-performs Oregon MHI, with a $54.0k Income exceeding that of most Counties in Oregon, with the exception of the Metro PDX Counties (Including at a stretch Columbia & Yamhill, and Hood River), plus throw in Deschutes and Morrow Counties...

Educational Attainment:

Polk County is only at 38.5% of Adults 25+ with a Post Secondary Degree, which although it might make a bit of an "educated county", actually more so than Lane County, but still well below Deschutes and Clackamas County.

Economic Sectors:

Private Sector:          57.1%
State/ Local /Fed       23.7%

(Way higher % of Public Sector Jobs than usually the Case in Western Oregon).

Industries:

Health care--  ~ 24% matches Statewide numbers
Education---       12% way beyond Statewide numbers
Government--     10.5% way beyond statewide numbers
Retail---             10.1% way below statewide numbers
Manufacturing-    9.3% Significantly below Statewide numbers
Construction---   6.3%  A bit above Statewide numbers
Hospitality--       5.9% A bit below Statewide numbers
Agriculture---     5.3% Way beyond Statewide numbers

Occupations:

Administrative--- 14.6% (Way beyond statewide numbers)
Mgmt  / Sales and Related---  each at 9.4% and both beneath OR numbers significantly
Education--- 6.3% (A bit above State avg)
Production-- 6.2% (A bit above State avg)

Ancestral Republican County in Oregon gradually drifting away from their roots?

Had Polk County on my OR 2020 flip list as a toss-up County, where I was thinking it would be like a Biden +6-8% PV Win,,,,  ( I was so close....)

More to follow....










 

[mileslunn]

Here is Polk County

Salem (Polk County portion only): Biden 54.74% - Trump 41.72%

Dallas: Trump 56.93% - Biden 39.51%

Falls City: Trump 61.24% - Biden 33.33% (includes surrounding rural areas so whole precinct)


Independence: Biden: 56.31% - Trump 39.87%

Monmouth: Biden 56.81% - Trump 38.57%

[mileslunn]

Here is Washington County

Banks: Trump 53.74% - Biden 40.98%

Beaverton: Biden 72.3% - Trump 24.41%

Cornelius: Biden 58.94% - Trump 37.73%

Durham: Biden 67.79% - Trump 28.72%

Forest Grove: Biden 55.29% - Trump 40.59%

Gaston: Trump: 57.18% - Biden 38.51%

Hillsboro: Biden 63.56% - Trump 32.41%

King City: Biden 60.24% - Trump 36.82%

North Plains: Biden 52.12% - Trump 44.3%

Sherwood: Biden: 56.62% - Trump 39.66%

Tigard: Biden 66.25% - Trump 30.27%

Tualatin: Biden 62.37% - Trump 33.5%

Most of Trump's support came from the rural unincorporated parts.  King City was interesting as it is a planned seniors community with average age of 76 and 80% over 65 yet still voted pretty strongly for Biden.  One of the reasons I figured Portland was so Democratic is it is the youngest metro area in US and younger Americans tend to lean more in progressive direction while far from unanimous, seniors due to lean right.  Its one of the big reasons despite being more urbanized than most of the country and slightly less white, Florida still often votes GOP.

[mileslunn]

For Hood River County

Cascade Locks: Trump 48.59% - Biden 45.92%

Hood River: Biden 76.02% - Trump 20.99%

Cascade Locks precinct was the only one to vote for Trump in Hood River county.  On other hand Hood River precincts were the most lopsided with others solidly for Biden but not as lopsided.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Here is Washington County

Banks: Trump 53.74% - Biden 40.98%

Beaverton: Biden 72.3% - Trump 24.41%

Cornelius: Biden 58.94% - Trump 37.73%

Durham: Biden 67.79% - Trump 28.72%

Forest Grove: Biden 55.29% - Trump 40.59%

Gaston: Trump: 57.18% - Biden 38.51%

Hillsboro: Biden 63.56% - Trump 32.41%

King City: Biden 60.24% - Trump 36.82%

North Plains: Biden 52.12% - Trump 44.3%

Sherwood: Biden: 56.62% - Trump 39.66%

Tigard: Biden 66.25% - Trump 30.27%

Tualatin: Biden 62.37% - Trump 33.5%

Yeah I noticed North Plains flipped from Trump to Biden when looking at the State Gov't and NY Times precinct maps. The NYT map says Trump won ~44% both times, so the net swing towards Biden was from 2016 3rd party voters.

Most of Trump's support came from the rural unincorporated parts.  King City was interesting as it is a planned seniors community with average age of 76 and 80% over 65 yet still voted pretty strongly for Biden.  One of the reasons I figured Portland was so Democratic is it is the youngest metro area in US and younger Americans tend to lean more in progressive direction while far from unanimous, seniors due to lean right.  Its one of the big reasons despite being more urbanized than most of the country and slightly less white, Florida still often votes GOP.

Source? I have no hard data to back this up, but I feel like Salt Lake City would be younger. Portland doesn't strike me as a particularly young metro area, it's just really white and slightly less boujee than Seattle.