Oregon 2020 GE PRES Megathread
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Rand
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« Reply #25 on: November 27, 2020, 03:51:44 AM »

Douglas County Social Demographics 2020:

1.) Douglas County is one of the "Most Anglo" Counties in Oregon ranking at 30/36 Counties in Oregon with the smallest % of Non-White Residents (11.2%), with Columbia County narrowly nipping on the heals.

The only Counties behind these are a few small pop places in Eastern OR (Union, Baker, Grant, Wallowa, Wheeler).

Looking back at my elementary days I don’t think I ever realized just how white Douglas County really was. Fortunately for me I could pass for white despite being 1/3 Hispanic.
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« Reply #26 on: November 27, 2020, 03:55:47 AM »

Could someone get the data for Portland vs the rest of Multnomah County

We have Portland vs. Multonomah County earlier.  I checked three mentioned but not up yet but will check again and maybe someone else is able to get the data for those three.

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570  

Washington County precinct results are now available on the map. Looks like Biden's vote share slightly increased from Hillary's in higher-income areas closer to Portland proper- but slightly decreased in lower-income areas of Beaverton? The increase in Trump support as you go west from inner Beaverton to downtown Hillsboro is similar to what you see tracing the MAX Blue Line route along the eastside from 82nd Ave to downtown Gresham.

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2020, 05:03:05 AM »

Below is Salem split by county

Marion County:

Salem:

Biden:  38,550
Trump: 25,678
Total:  66,260

Polk County:

Salem:

Biden:  9,154
Trump: 6,977
Total: 16,722

Total:

Biden:  47,704   -     57.5%
Trump:  32,655  -     39.4%
Total: 82,982

So yes Biden won Salem, but seems quite a bit more conservative than either Eugene or Portland.  I would have thought with the civil service there, Democrats would do a bit better, do you know why?

Biden winning Salem by almost 20% is huge historically.

Additionally it is one of a few places in Marion County that has a massive increase in Population over the past decade.

Back when I was working for the Kopetski Campaign in '90 in CD-05, Salem was a rough beat even though we had precincts we walked and went door to door to defeat "Reagans Robot", Denny Smith who used to represent us in Congress.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/michael_kopetski/406466

Oregon Land Use Planning Laws effectively packs populations into Cities in order to protect Rural lands, including Farms & Timber Country from the impact of Urban Sprawl.

+20% D in Salem is really good numbers, even with a narrow loss in Keizer.

Woodburn is a massively growing strong Latino City, which votes heavily DEM...

Rural Marion  plus Cities like Stayton typically overwhelm DEM numbers from Salem...

Regardless, numbers out of Salem are extremely strong, and likely suggest places like Albany are likely possible 2020 flips.
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PJ
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« Reply #28 on: November 28, 2020, 04:10:59 AM »

I wanted to contribute some of my findings based on combing over Lane County precinct results:

There's a couple of Trump-Biden precincts here.
- Florence and Coburg are both Trump-Biden municipalities,
- Biden flipped a precinct in East Springfield (although the Thurston neighborhood remained just out of reach).
- Two rural precincts, one in the Triangle Lake area and the other in the Lorane area, both flipped. My general impression is that there are a fair number of hippies in the hills around Eugene that explain this.

Some other Obama-Trump towns, like Mapleton and Oakridge, stayed with Trump, although the margins were still competitive. For how rugged and mountainous it is, rural Lane County is not that conservative. Trump did not exceed 60% anywhere except for rural areas around Junction City and Cottage Grove. I was somewhat surprised by Creswell, a pretty conservative small town that went from 53-35 Trump to 53-43 Trump.

In Eugene proper, Biden is generally matching or exceeding Obama's numbers. Third party voters overwhelmingly broke for Biden, and this is a city where third party voting was particularly high in 2016. There is a small drop in the student vote due to COVID, but is is pretty insignificant considering that the UO-adjacent neighborhoods continues to march to left. My neighborhood gave Biden 89.7% for instance (compared to 82% for Clinton). Springfield is similarly swinging leftward: the downtown precinct went from 58% Clinton to 68% Biden.
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PJ
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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2020, 04:13:22 AM »

Also NOVA, I'm curious if you have any takes on the Hispanic vote in Marion County? Glancing over precinct results in Woodburn and Gervais, it seems pretty clear that Biden gained on Clinton in majority Hispanic neighborhoods here, contrary to national swings. Curious if you have any intuition as to why this is the case.
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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2020, 04:59:44 AM »

Also NOVA, I'm curious if you have any takes on the Hispanic vote in Marion County? Glancing over precinct results in Woodburn and Gervais, it seems pretty clear that Biden gained on Clinton in majority Hispanic neighborhoods here, contrary to national swings. Curious if you have any intuition as to why this is the case.

1) The national R swing among Latinos (and Mexicans specifically) wasn’t uniform. Maybe Biden’s weakness/45’s strength with Mexican communities in the Southwest was more for economic reasons, as other members have suggested?

2) White nationalism is a more visible threat to nonwhite individuals and communities in the PNW. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2020, 09:10:30 PM »

Douglas County- Oregon- Economic Profile:

1.) Douglas County Oregon has one of the lowest Median Household Income rates in Western Oregon, with an MHI of only $42.1k / Yr.

Coos, Curry, & Josephine lag a bit behind in SW OR, as does Lincoln County along the Central Oregon Coast.

2.) This is likely partially a result of Douglas County having a relatively older population than most parts of Western OR, where retirees are generally living on fixed incomes, where your assets are the property you own.

3.) The Labor Force Participation is also significantly lower, than in many parts of Oregon as a direct result of having a large Senior Population.

4.) When it comes to employment by Sector, only 60.6% of workers in Douglas County are Private Sector Workers, marking it as one of the lowest in Western OR (Although ahead of Curry, Coos Counties, as well as Benton & Polk in the Mid-Valley).

Roughly 20% of Workers are employed by Local, State, and Federal agencies (Public Sector)

Local Government Jobs: (City, County) will typically skew heavily K-12 Teachers, Cops, and County Administrative Functions.

9.27% of the Douglas County entire workforce consists of this Category, which actually represents one of the highest Counties in OR West of the Cascades, only slightly lagging behind Curry County.

State Government Jobs: (Oregon State Police, Community College Employees, State Forest Mgmt, Oregon Department of Transportation, etc...) are only 4.65% of the Total workers in the County, which place them significantly lower than most parts of Western Oregon.

Federal Government Jobs:

Douglas County clocks in at 5.29% of the Entire Labor Force, without having any major Federal presence.

There are no Military Installations, no major Federal Building, no VA Hospital, etc...

Most of these jobs are likely associated with Federal Agencies designed to manage public lands, including the United States Forest Service (USFS), as well as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM).

5.) Now let's take a brief peak at Private Sector Employment in Douglas County by Industry:



Douglas County, despite being an overwhelmingly Rural County, still ranks #9 in Oregon in Manufacturing jobs as a % of the Entire Labor Force (!!!).

Douglas County ranks #4 in Oregon as a % of the Labor Force in Agriculture, despite not being a "Farming County".

Part of the reason for this is that Logging is Agriculture, just like Growing Weed is Agriculture by US Census Classifications.

Fishing is as well, but Douglas County has only a sliver of Oregon Coastline, and last time I checked was not a major commercial fishing port city in OR.

6.) Here are the largest employers in Douglas County as of 2015:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_County,_Oregon

7.) Roseburg Forest Products is still a local giant when it comes to Millwork...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roseburg_Forest_Products

Like many other Timber Companies, they have increasingly shifted Mills & Timber Harvesting to the Southeast American states like Arkansas, Georgia, etc...

Wanna job?

They are hiring even in Douglas County Oregon as of right now.

https://secure6.saashr.com/ta/6013659.careers?rnd=QBB&JobsSearch=

Here is a link to their national jobsite, which should remain constant for any of y'all interested in working in a Timber Mill:

https://www.roseburg.com/Careers/

8.) So I think I covered most of the basics, without going into the Basque Sheep Farmers of Douglas County, slivers of Wine Country, etc... maybe I can cover that later in what might end up being an extensive review of Rural Douglas County.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2020, 09:38:18 PM »

Douglas County has now Certified their 2020 GE Election Results:

Here is the updated Graph of GE PRES RAW Election Results from 2000 to 2020:



Here is the updated Graph of GE PRES % Results from 2000 to 2020:



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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: November 28, 2020, 09:38:47 PM »

Placeholder for OR-SEN Results from Douglas County
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2020, 09:39:13 PM »

Placeholder for CD-04 Results from Douglas County
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #35 on: November 28, 2020, 09:49:18 PM »

Placeholder for Douglas County Ballot Initiatives
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #36 on: November 28, 2020, 10:40:01 PM »

Douglas County- Oregon Vote Share by Place 2012 to 2020:



Douglas County is overwhelmingly rural in that only a relatively small population lives within "Cities".

Roseburg is the largest City in Douglas County, representing roughly 20% of the County Vote Share, then you got  some folks living right down the Highway in Winston & Sutherlin...

Other than that not too much out there, other than a small Coastal Town Reedsport, Myrtle Creek, and a few small rural Towns that are centers of local neighborhood and commerce.

Although the rural population is gradually declining, still almost 60% of Voters live in "Rural Areas".

Next stop Roseburg--- to give some props to Rafe, not to mention the largest population center within the County...  Wink
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mileslunn
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« Reply #37 on: November 29, 2020, 08:51:24 PM »

Douglas County- Oregon Vote Share by Place 2012 to 2020:



Douglas County is overwhelmingly rural in that only a relatively small population lives within "Cities".

Roseburg is the largest City in Douglas County, representing roughly 20% of the County Vote Share, then you got  some folks living right down the Highway in Winston & Sutherlin...

Other than that not too much out there, other than a small Coastal Town Reedsport, Myrtle Creek, and a few small rural Towns that are centers of local neighborhood and commerce.

Although the rural population is gradually declining, still almost 60% of Voters live in "Rural Areas".

Next stop Roseburg--- to give some props to Rafe, not to mention the largest population center within the County...  Wink

How did Roseburg vote?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #38 on: November 29, 2020, 09:33:35 PM »

Roseburg Oregon--- Demographic Profile:



Roseburg is a relatively small town of only barely over 22,000 residents, and as not only the County Seat, but additionally provides a much wider range of Shopping and Medical Services to support what is essentially an overwhelmingly rural and older population base.

1.) Age: Roughly 29% of the Population of the City is over the age of 60, versus roughly 32.4% of the County as a whole.

2.) Race / Ethnicity: Basically is only slight less "Non-Latino White" running 11.8% vs 11.2%.

3.) Educational Attainment: Runs one the highest in the County with 23.7% with a BA Degree or greater.

4.) Median Household Income ($41.2k / Yr) is below County Numbers.

5.) Industries--- 17.6% of workers are employed in the Health Care Industry, 13.7% in Retail, 10.8% in Education, 10.1% in Government, and 9.5% in Manufacturing.

8.) Occupations--- skew heavily administrative 15.6%, while Education & Production only stand out compared to elsewhere.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #39 on: November 29, 2020, 10:30:00 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 10:33:38 PM by NOVA Green »

Roseburg, Oregon--- GE PRES Results 2000 to 2020:

Since apparently everyone is curious about how Roseburg Oregon voted, let's start with the GE-PRES Total Results from 2000 to 2020 in terms of Raw Votes:

Bonus points 1992 GE PRES:

Clinton:           2,852    (33.9%)         +8.5% PUB
Bush Sr:          3,564    (42.4%)
Perot / Misc:    1,985     (23.6%)
Total:              8,401



Since apparently everyone is curious about how Roseburg Oregon voted, let's go with the GE-PRES Total Results from 2000 to 2020 in terms of % of Votes:



Down-Ballot Election results from Roseburg 2020 coming shortly, or possibly precinct results (Gets tricky after '10 for historical boundaries).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #40 on: December 09, 2020, 01:43:28 AM »

I wanted to contribute some of my findings based on combing over Lane County precinct results:

There's a couple of Trump-Biden precincts here.
- Florence and Coburg are both Trump-Biden municipalities,
- Biden flipped a precinct in East Springfield (although the Thurston neighborhood remained just out of reach).
- Two rural precincts, one in the Triangle Lake area and the other in the Lorane area, both flipped. My general impression is that there are a fair number of hippies in the hills around Eugene that explain this.

Some other Obama-Trump towns, like Mapleton and Oakridge, stayed with Trump, although the margins were still competitive. For how rugged and mountainous it is, rural Lane County is not that conservative. Trump did not exceed 60% anywhere except for rural areas around Junction City and Cottage Grove. I was somewhat surprised by Creswell, a pretty conservative small town that went from 53-35 Trump to 53-43 Trump.

In Eugene proper, Biden is generally matching or exceeding Obama's numbers. Third party voters overwhelmingly broke for Biden, and this is a city where third party voting was particularly high in 2016. There is a small drop in the student vote due to COVID, but is is pretty insignificant considering that the UO-adjacent neighborhoods continues to march to left. My neighborhood gave Biden 89.7% for instance (compared to 82% for Clinton). Springfield is similarly swinging leftward: the downtown precinct went from 58% Clinton to 68% Biden.

Hi PJ,

First off want to apologize for not commenting on your Lane County overview (Awesome to have a current active Atlas Poster who lives outside of Metro PDX!).

Florence is perhaps not particularly surprising, considering it has a relatively high Senior Population (As do many other similar OR Coastal WWC Communities), plus traditionally has had a bit of a DEM tilt.

Your angle on Triangle Lake and Lorane is pretty much spot on, and generally these are Coastal Mountain Areas where "the rednecks were growing weed, while the "Hippies" were buying guns.

Curious have you run the Lane County numbers now that Lane County results should be official?

I will definitely be taking a look at U of O Campus precincts on my "Division 1-A Football Thread", of course really that was more of a concern with the CD-04 Election than the OR-GE.

It does appear that in Benton County, there was only a relatively marginal increase in new voters between GE '16 > '20, despite AVR being in full effect (Meaning places like Douglas and Linn Counties) surged in new voters.

2016 3rd Party Voters in OR breaking hard Biden appears to be a real thing (But unfortunately with massive increase in TVs a bit more difficult to do a proper compare & contrast.  )     Sad
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #41 on: December 09, 2020, 02:13:47 AM »

Also NOVA, I'm curious if you have any takes on the Hispanic vote in Marion County? Glancing over precinct results in Woodburn and Gervais, it seems pretty clear that Biden gained on Clinton in majority Hispanic neighborhoods here, contrary to national swings. Curious if you have any intuition as to why this is the case.

1) The national R swing among Latinos (and Mexicans specifically) wasn’t uniform. Maybe Biden’s weakness/45’s strength with Mexican communities in the Southwest was more for economic reasons, as other members have suggested?

2) White nationalism is a more visible threat to nonwhite individuals and communities in the PNW. 

I would look more closely at Latino results in NE Salem precincts (Haven't done that myself yet), to examine potential Latino Swings in Marion County.

Latino vote in Downstate OR (West of Cascades) is much more diffuse, and perhaps in many ways more tightly connected with local communities than perhaps in some other parts of the Country.

Slight Digression:

When I was in High School in the late 1980s, there were a relatively small % of Latino Class Members of mine, but a significantly higher % of Asian-American Pacific Islanders.

Many of us had known each other since Elementary and Middle School.

It is now very different in 2020, where up and down the Willamette Valley in Downstate Oregon, my Grandchildren now have friends that they have known for multiple years of elementary school as the Latino % of the school population has increased dramatically.

At the large Mfg facility where I work, we now have a pretty large number of new workers that are Latino Millennials, who graduated from local High Schools.

Woodburn:   In the late 1980s it was a much smaller town, which I stopped over multiple times "riding the dog" (Greyhound Bus) to step out and have a quick smoke on a, while the new passengers were waiting in line to get their luggage collected, give the driver their tickets heading North.

"Oldtown Woodburn" was Woodburn, with a mixture of the classic Mexican-American shops, as well as a center of local farmworkers.

As a political activist in High School, I also associated Woodburn as being the center of the Oregon Farmworkers Labor Movement, Pineros y Campesinos Unidos del Noroeste (PCUN)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PCUN

https://pcun.org/

*** It might well be that Woodburn as an historical Labor Union Region Center, was more resistant to Trumpism in 2020.

It might also be that Woodburn has dramatically expanded in Population as an easy Bedroom Community between both Metro Salem and the South PDX 'Burbs. (Not sure if you have seen all of those new apartment complex developments which have sprouted up over the past 10-15 years visible off "The 5" before you take the first exit if you are heading North....    ***

Definitely worth looking at Latino precinct data in Marion County, since as far as Western Oregon goes, you got some data to look at outside of some precincts in Multnomah and Washington Counties....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #42 on: December 09, 2020, 03:06:43 AM »

Apologies... been a bit of a slacker on this project....

So much other data to Grok, plus really I hate wasting tons of time translating data from PDFs, when I can grab them in Excel formats soon.    Wink

Still, rolling through a few towns and joints in OR looking for Compare & Contrast Numbers.

Here's another teaser for y'all:

Albany--- Oregon 2016 Trump > 2020 Biden Flip

Note: This includes both Linn and Benton County Precincts of Albany Oregon.

Biden outperformed Obama '08 in Albany Oregon with a total record voter turnout courtesy of Automatic Voter Registration which benefited both Republicans and Democrats alike throughout Oregon....

I have seen a few precinct which swung almost 20% Biden....


2020 GE PRES:

Biden:   15,106  (48.7%)        (+1.9% Biden)            (+9.0% DEM Swing '16>'20)
Trump:  14,522  (46.8%)
Misc:      1,391   ( 4.5%)
Total:    31,019                     (+22.3% of 2016 GE PRES TV)

2016 GE PRES:

HRC:     10,050  (39.6%)        (+7.1% Trump)     (+4.3% PUB SWING)
IN
Trump:  11,844  (46.7%)
Misc:      3,459   (13.6%)
Total:    25,353                        (+15.7% of 2012 GE PRES TV)

2012 GE PRES:

Obama:   10,183  (46.5%)        (+2.8% Romney)     (+3.5% PUB SWING)
Romney:  10,801  (49.3%)
Misc:            921  (4.2%)
Total:       21,905

2008 GE PRES:

Obama:   10,707  (48.8%)        (+0.7% Obama)
McCain:   10,563  (48.1%)
Misc:            685   (3.1%)
Total:       21,955
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« Reply #43 on: December 17, 2020, 06:48:21 PM »

Made a few maps so I have a spreadsheet with city/town data for four counties.

Clatsop County
Astoria: 68.7% Biden, 27.9% Trump
Cannon Beach: 70.5% Biden, 26.7% Trump
Gearhart: 60.4% Biden, 36.5% Trump
Seaside: 58.8% Biden, 37.8% Trump

Warrenton: 52.2% Trump, 44.3% Biden

Columbia County

Clatskanie: 57.2% Trump, 39.5% Biden
Columbia City: 48.0% Trump, 47.4% Biden
Rainier: 56.3% Trump, 39.8% Biden

Prescott: 48.1% Trump, 48.1% Biden (tie)
Scappoose: 51.3% Biden, 44.7% Trump
St. Helens: 50.1% Trump, 45.1% Biden
Vernonia: 63.1% Trump, 32.1% Biden


Marion County
Aumsville: 65.9% Trump, 30.0% Biden
Aurora: 49.5% Trump, 47.4% Biden
Detroit: 67.0% Trump, 33.1% Biden
Donald: 55.3% Trump, 40.3% Biden (fitting right?)
Gates: 65.9% Trump, 28.4% Biden

Gervais: 55.7% Biden, 40.8% Trump
Idanha: 64.1% Trump, 33.3% Biden
Jefferson: 61.6% Trump, 35.3% Biden
Keizer: 49.7% Trump, 46.8% Biden
Hubbard: 50.5% Trump, 46.3% Biden
Mt. Angel: 55.2% Trump, 42.0% Biden

Salem: 57.7% Biden, 38.4% Trump (just the part in Marion County)
Scotts Mills: 66.7% Trump, 28.1% Biden
Silverton: 50.7% Biden, 45.4% Trump
Stayton: 61.2% Trump, 35.5% Biden
St. Paul: 60.7% Trump, 36.2% Biden
Sublimity: 64.4% Trump, 32.5% Biden
Turner: 65.3% Trump, 32.2% Biden

Woodburn: 57.4% Biden, 40.4% Trump

Yamhill County*
*-Some cities are combined with the rural areas into one precinct so you can't get accurate data, I left them out

Dundee: 49.1% Biden, 46.9% Trump
McMinnville: 53.6% Biden, 42.9% Trump
Newberg: 49.4% Biden, 46.0% Trump

Sheridan: 60.1% Trump, 35.9% Trump
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« Reply #44 on: December 17, 2020, 08:40:07 PM »

I was able to do Multonomah, Clackamas, Deschutes and parts of Coos and Lane county so I can go re-calculate and add those.  Also with precinct listings could do Washington county too.
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« Reply #45 on: December 18, 2020, 02:53:23 AM »

Made a few maps so I have a spreadsheet with city/town data for four counties.

Clatsop County
Astoria: 68.7% Biden, 27.9% Trump
Cannon Beach: 70.5% Biden, 26.7% Trump
Gearhart: 60.4% Biden, 36.5% Trump
Seaside: 58.8% Biden, 37.8% Trump

Warrenton: 52.2% Trump, 44.3% Biden

Columbia County

Clatskanie: 57.2% Trump, 39.5% Biden
Columbia City: 48.0% Trump, 47.4% Biden
Rainier: 56.3% Trump, 39.8% Biden

Prescott: 48.1% Trump, 48.1% Biden (tie)
Scappoose: 51.3% Biden, 44.7% Trump
St. Helens: 50.1% Trump, 45.1% Biden
Vernonia: 63.1% Trump, 32.1% Biden


Marion County
Aumsville: 65.9% Trump, 30.0% Biden
Aurora: 49.5% Trump, 47.4% Biden
Detroit: 67.0% Trump, 33.1% Biden
Donald: 55.3% Trump, 40.3% Biden (fitting right?)
Gates: 65.9% Trump, 28.4% Biden

Gervais: 55.7% Biden, 40.8% Trump
Idanha: 64.1% Trump, 33.3% Biden
Jefferson: 61.6% Trump, 35.3% Biden
Keizer: 49.7% Trump, 46.8% Biden
Hubbard: 50.5% Trump, 46.3% Biden
Mt. Angel: 55.2% Trump, 42.0% Biden

Salem: 57.7% Biden, 38.4% Trump (just the part in Marion County)
Scotts Mills: 66.7% Trump, 28.1% Biden
Silverton: 50.7% Biden, 45.4% Trump
Stayton: 61.2% Trump, 35.5% Biden
St. Paul: 60.7% Trump, 36.2% Biden
Sublimity: 64.4% Trump, 32.5% Biden
Turner: 65.3% Trump, 32.2% Biden

Woodburn: 57.4% Biden, 40.4% Trump

Yamhill County*
*-Some cities are combined with the rural areas into one precinct so you can't get accurate data, I left them out

Dundee: 49.1% Biden, 46.9% Trump
McMinnville: 53.6% Biden, 42.9% Trump
Newberg: 49.4% Biden, 46.0% Trump

Sheridan: 60.1% Trump, 35.9% Trump

Thanks MB!

Like I said been a bit of slacker (partially waiting for data in Excel formats to minimize manual data entry), plus have been side-tracked with a few other items.

My plan for the thread was to run comprehensive numbers drilled down by Municipality and County to the '00 Level, including US-SEN and US-REP Data (Depending upon location).

I believe I already shared the top (100) Municipalities / Cities in OR 2016 elsewhere, but more than happy to share compare & contrast numbers with 2020 GE PRES.

Apologies, but I do intend to continue much more detailed analysis before too long... (So much to do and so little time....).   Sad
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mileslunn
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« Reply #46 on: December 18, 2020, 04:45:19 PM »

Here is Clackamas County

Barlow: Trump 56.1% - Biden 43.9%
Canby: Trump 51.5% - Biden 45.1%
Estacada: Trump 58.9% - Biden 36.3%

Gladstone: Biden 56.3% - Trump 40%
Happy Valley: Biden: 54.9% - Trump 42.4%
Johnson City: Biden 53.7% - Trump 43.9%
Lake Oswego: Biden 71.4% - Trump 26.1%
Milwaukie: Biden 68.7% - Trump 27.9%

Molalla: Trump 65% - Biden 31.7%
Oregon City: Biden 52.6% - Trump 43.9%
Portland (Clackamas portion only): Biden 55.5% - Trump 41.5%
Rivergrove: Biden 68% - Trump 27.7%

Sandy: Trump 55.3% - Biden 40.2%
Tualatin (Clackamas portion only): Biden 63.3% - Trump 33.3%
West Linn: Biden 65.4% - Trump 31.5%
Wilsonville: Biden 59.1% - Trump 37.6%

Seems Trump was strongest in unincorporated areas and towns outside Portland metro area while Portland suburbs went massively Biden save Oregon City which was close to Clackamas county average and Portland portion surprisingly Trump got over 40%.  Rest look a lot like Washington County so guessing Clackamas County more competitive due to larger rural population.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #47 on: December 18, 2020, 04:56:21 PM »

I got Deschutes County breakdown earlier but cannot find it, but will try again.  I know Biden won Sisters while in Bend Trump got under 1/3 of popular vote while rest of county went Trump, but county site doesn't give breakdown anymore but see if I can find it.
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Skye
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« Reply #48 on: December 22, 2020, 06:19:54 PM »

This is a shameless double post.
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Skye
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« Reply #49 on: December 22, 2020, 06:25:26 PM »

Thanks to NOVA Green, who provided me with the Washington County precinct results (which I missed for some reason). I was able to make a map of the Portland Area.



So the result for the area was Biden 65.1 - Trump 31.8.

I didn't include other counties that are included in the US Census Bureau's definition for the Portland Metropolitan Area since the urban area doesn't extend to them.
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