2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

Im not as optimistic as him but I feel good about it atm

Basically the GOP needs supposedly about 400k raw vote lead to win comfortably, their main push is typicially in the morning and they are still at only a tad over 100k margin.

And on top this number has no Miami-Dade turnout which according to the Miami Herald is beating expectations.

Thanks. I hope you're right.

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

Dont know how you can see these numbers and not be optimistic. The Republican E Day push that was so touted is not materializing as much as anticipated. NPAs are conservatively breaking 55-45 to Biden and there are way more R > D voters than D > R voters.

Keep in mind that these ballot returns are without a Host of counties that will overall lean a bit towards Biden as well. And Florida Dems vote towards the end of the day while Florida GOP votes early on E Day.

Of course I don’t have any official metrics but all of that together is making me increasingly confident.  

It's not that I'm not optimistic. It's just that I am not at all familiar with the voting dynamics at play here. Your points seem solid, so hope they end up being correct.

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323685103793590273?s=20

Raw vote growth % between those reports:

R + 34%
D  +38%
NPA +42%

Not saying it means anything, but the pace seems favourable for the Democrats.

[Gren]

Miami Dade results coming in

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323704995464781824

Stick a fork in Trump's dream of winning Florida

So the trend is similar to what I previously mentioned for Broward County. The vote count for Dems and NPAs is growing at a faster pace than for Reps.

Growth % in raw vote between reports
R +40%
D +49%
NPA +50%

[Gren]

Broward aint stopping
https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323723553934610434

So the trend continues in this third turnout report from Broward.
Comparing to the previous one, raw votes have grown in the following way:

R+18%
D+22%
NPA/O +22%

If we compare it with the first report:

R+64%
D+77%
NPA/O +81%

It does seem true that, as the day goes by, the electorate becomes more favourable to Biden.

[Gren]

What is happening in Virginia? 29% in and Trump is up in Loudoun. It's just election-day vote?

[Gren]

I'm starting to feel a little nervous. NC, however, is looking good for Biden... isn't it? :/

[Gren]

I know some of you are saying Biden won't win NC, but I think he could. Although Dem-friendly urban areas have reported more votes, he's improving quite a lot there over Clinton. Also, vote-rich GOP strongholds such as Gaston, Iredell, Rowan, Randolph and Davidson are equally reporting at a higher rate than the state as a whole.

[Gren]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

[Gren]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

[Gren]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

The rural counties are providing larger vote margins than last time, which is the counterbalance to the suburban swing to Biden.

Even in the rural areas, the picture is extremely mixed. Not at all ideal for Trump. Also, I'm guessing a 2-point swing towards Trump in Taylor county doesn't offset a 6-point swing in Waukesha for Biden.

[Gren]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

So, 4 point swing to Biden in Milwaukee. Pretty much what I was expecting, given the swings elsewhere. Those who questioned my logic... well, is pure and simple math. One must compare apples to apples, so looking at +98% reporting counties and comparing them to 2016 makes perfect sense. Comparing counties with incomplete results (especially in this election, where patterns vary so much between voting methods) to 2016 is nonsensical.

[Gren]

Biden is, I think, also winning MI.

Swing in Washtenaw (already 98% in): Biden +5
Oakland is having a Biden +4 swing, but it could increase because there are still absentees to count.
Marquette, up in the Upper Peninsula, is Biden +7.
Saginaw, Biden +1,5

Kalamazoo already looking good, with 20% still pending. Same for Kent (29% pending) or even Wayne (57% pending). Biden still behind Clinton in all of these, but with some much room for growth from uber-blue absentees.

PS: Rural areas are not swinging hard to Trump.

[Gren]

Imagine this result, with 300 Electoral votes for Uncle Joe. Lmao.

Not sure about Nevada, but I think you may be right.

[Gren]

Think Biden won’t have any problem winning NV and AZ. Very confident about MI and WI as well. Don’t see much of a chance for Trump anymore.

I agree completely. I have already pointed out at the healthy swings Biden's getting in a variety of MI counties that have already reported all or the overwhelming majority of the ballots. Somebody else has just mentioned Ottawa, which has had a 8-point swing towards Biden. Macomb is not looking bad at all, with 25% still pending.

By the way, I also think Biden will win PA and GA. I'm sure about WI.