European Elections 2009 (France)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Dieudonné will lead an "anti-Zionist" list in Ile-de-France. He claims that the UMP and the PS declared a "cultural war" against him after he publically denied the Holocaust and mocked its victims.

lol.

While he's a disgusting piece of crap who deserves nothing but crap to fall on his head, it will be interesting to make a map for his performance!

I would not be surprised if it looks like the Le Pen map...

Wrong, the clappers of Dieudonné are youngs of poor suburbs.

Frankly, what it seems it's that the guy it's just looking for the most provoking things, he knows that's ridiculous, but that's really provoking, he must enjoy himself of all blames he gets from all over media. More media say he's awful, more he enjoys it. They shouldn't give as much attention to his provoking game, they feed it.

Media should rather pay attention of the fact that Dieudonné has a lot clappers within poor suburbs youth.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Dieudonné will lead an "anti-Zionist" list in Ile-de-France. He claims that the UMP and the PS declared a "cultural war" against him after he publically denied the Holocaust and mocked its victims.

I wonder what his best Departement will be? I'm guessing Seine-Saint-Dennis.

You got it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

These polls miss THE most important: abstention.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The question of using these elections to express the discontent is the question basically. The call of PS for so has been very weak until now, I didn't hear NPA on this, the only strong call for this comes from Mélenchon, and I would be very surprised of a success for him here, the guy can't gather a lot I tend to think, but well, never know too...

Frankly, I tend to think that people would more use the protesting methods of the street instead of using this election, plus, May will have passed, things could have happen.

In that way, I tend to think that the breaking of the 60% for the abstention is accurate.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

2 rather bad pollsters.

CSA, which is the French Zogby. It's also owned by Vincent Bolloré, though that doesn't automatically make it awful as the left likes to think.
UMP 27%
PS 25%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
FN 8%
NPA 7%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
DLR 1%

While they don't seem too insane on the first numbers, their numbers for the smaller parties are most likely outliers. The FN is not going to poll 8%, which is only slightly below the 2004 level, and the Left Front won't be reduced to just 3%.

OpinionWay, which is also rather bad. The lefties have said that it is a Le Figaro-UMP pollster. This sample is about 490 people only and I think it's an interwebs poll.
UMP 28%
PS 23%
MoDem 12%
Greenies 10%
NPA 7%
FN 6%
Libertas 5%
PCF-PG 5%
Others 3%
DLR 1%

58% will vote based on national issues, 40% based on European issues. 40% won't vote based on Sarkozy, 38% will voice their disapproval, 20% will voice their approval.

Two right-leaning polls that show the Ps close to UMP... I think we can win !

Damn, you're 15 years old an you believe in PS??

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not bad numbers... But what ? FN gets more than NPA ? Fascist idiots are decisely hard to die.

I expect NPA supporters expressing themselves more in streets than in votes, at least they didn't claim for the anti-sarkozy referendum until now.

The month of May will be decisive, Bayrou will very aired with his book against Sarkozy and we have to see what will give in the country the movement of protest until now led by unions.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

I tend to agree with this, Bayrou is building himself a political line. In order to achieve a very personal ambition apparently but he's building himself a line, and which remains centrist. The point I would reproach him is he doesn't build this line on a clear system of value, he picks here or there things, and say "that's my line", it misses a clear coherence which goes in the sens that his movement his more nothing but personal.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is anything but a demagogue. I don't agree with all of his ideas, but he has precise political views : moderate welfare state ( too moderate for the left, not enough for the UMP ), social liberalism, true ( not "positive" ) secularism, "gaullist" conception offrench political independence, refuse of abuses of power and injustices as the disgusting "affaire Tapie". These ideas are certainly more close to the PS than the UMP, but it remains a centrist position.

I tend to agree with this, Bayrou is building himself a political line. In order to achieve a very personal ambition apparently but he's building himself a line, and which remains centrist. The point I would reproach him is he doesn't build this line on a clear system of value, he picks here or there things, and say "that's my line", it misses a clear coherence which goes in the sens that his movement his more nothing but personal.

You could say the same about Blair or Clinton. They remain in my opinion better statesmen than Thatcher/Major and Reagan/Bush.

Yes, what we call "triangulation" in French. The difference being that Blair and Clinton involved one of the 2 major parties of their country. Bayrou tries to build a party on his character.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou... who was an absolute coward when he was Education minister (do you remember ?).

I don't know if he was a coward or not but he's through the only ones who passed a reform there, and we're still working with his system.

Bayrou is almost nothing in terms of politicial philosophy and is an "imposture" in terms of politics and elections.
The problem is that many Frecnh people forgot about his past when he was an average politician inside the UDF, only interested in winning on Jacques Barrot, Bernard Bosson and Philippe Douste-Blazy, successive potential rivals...

He's nothing known, he tries to create something, I don't say that what he does is always wonderful, and that he's not hypocrite sometimes, but, well, he tries something...

I'm not a socialist, far from it, but I really wish the socialist candidate (any of them, even Royal) will be above him in the 1st round in 2012. We need a clear choice.

Yeah, everyone knows how the border between left and right is clear today...

"(any of them, even Royal)" You're crazy. I voted for her in 2007 (in the 2nd run), but now, after things that happened recently, I'm not so sure I could, and if there would have to be a run between her and Sarkozy again, frankly I could turn to the blank ballot I think...

What is "social liberalism" ? Aren't Strauss-Kahn, Royal, Borloo, Barnier "social liberals" ? Bayrou isn't peculiar in this.

And which current day issues make up "social liberalism" in France? Gay marriage? Isn't Bayrou opposed to that? Euthanasia?

If Antonio wasn't speaking about what we use to call social social-liberalism in France, I mean something which refers to economy, well, has Bayrou pronounced himself about that topics?

Now the French centre is "Gaullist"? Dear Lord.

Although not surprising, since Bayrou has effectively destroyed the old idea of French centrism and replaced it by his new modern definition.

Eh, yes, that's what we call change... The history of politics is full of such changes, let's see the history of GOP and Dems in the US for the few I know...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

This is the same for European elections in France, since the beginning (1979): a scattered political landscape.

Yep, all the elections are that split in France before the 1st run of each.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Outside of polls...

Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle", the one who would ensure the transmission of the universal heritage of France. We can feel some sincerity in his words, in our ambiance it can work.

More of that, I think that people who vote for Bayrou are through those who use to vote at every elections and especially at European ones. Plus, the fact he appears as being the most credible alternative to PS and UMP, and that he has a kind of "anti-system" attitude, makes that he can gather around his list people those who want to show their discontent of the 2 major parties.

Clearly, Bayrou could go high in this election, the Greenies-Bové are quite silent today in the media, and the leaders of this list, Cohn Bendit and Bové could appear as too much radical compared to Bayrou for those who just want to show their discontent toward the major party they used to vote for.

I heard PS feared that even Hamon could not be elected.

Damn, if ever they could take a slap to awake.

Anyways, seems UMP is going to win by enough far. If so, a very big error for them would be to think this victory gives them more legitimacy to pass unpopular reforms. They will have to be very smart...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

Actually he's pretty good in this role, and he's the only one who is heard in media until now.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Interesting, besancenot is down.

Yes, we shouldn't expect a high Besancenot, high far-left either. They wouldn't put a lot on this election and people who would express a strong anger by voting here wouldn't be a lot I think. The only hope for far-left would be a vote that would be the fruit of a movement that begin in streets. That said they will certainly profit of the few debate in medias during this election to express themselves.

One more time, I think that Bayrou would profit of those who want to express the discontent by this election.

There are still Greenies, yes, and they are regularly polled high, personally, I would be surprised they will be that high, but well, the one never know...

Speaking about Greenies:

Here is the last stuff of their campaign:

http://bonnenouvelle.blog.lemonde.fr/2009/05/18/la-chanson-de-bove-et-cohn-bendit/

What's the message here?

"Everything is screwed up, we are all done, let's dance on the ruins of the world"

"Vote for us! We are the ones who know that we're all screwed up!"

Great... Great message... Congrats... That's cool... That gives hope...

Or they are stupid, or, more than the world, that are their minds which are screwed up by what is trendy or not. If they wanted to be trendy, that's a success, that suits very much with the ambiance in the country...

But I'm not so sure that helps the political and democratic debate and the democratic process. I just hope they can assume all of this by such messages.

They offer campaign's spots to NPA or what?

Well, other thing, Martine Aubry seems to find back a bit more of energy in her last speeches, she's more present in media. Will PS finally...awake?? At the last minute...

Oh...euh...well...euh...euh...we never know!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Antonio!

You finally believed in my scenario of the "born again Sarkozy"! Was a bit crazy! (That said, please anyone, if ever it happens, please, bump it ).

Well, I agree concerning the mainline of your talk. The religious aspects of things is certainly going to be more and more important in the future, and its mix with politics too, at least IMO.

But we're in France, and we're in 2009, and the only extremism that could occur here nowadays would be the far-left perspective, period. And for France, I think it's just when this far-left perspective will be completely wiped out, by having been tried or not, that we could begin to fear about the religious extremism. A religious extremism which would not correspond to the religious forms we currently know in France, would be a kind of mix of Catholicism and Evangelicals. It might sound unlikely, improbable today, but I think that trends could lead to something like this. I may won't develop here, would have a lot of things to say... Just a small example, fab gave unfavorable figures for Catholicism in France, figures for Evangelicals are pretty favorable, and regularly give about 1 new Evangelical church created each week in France, that said they remain a pretty minority today in the country, being at best 400,000.

So, first extremism: far-left. Then religion. That's why I got fun to imagine that scenario in the other topic. But all of this depends a lot of the good being of the economical and psychological situation which makes that a population turns into extremism or not.

Then, the surprise?

I hope Modem making more than PS (Oh yes! Would be so good! They really need a slap, and Bayrou is far to be the worst of the political landscape to me), but well, I would be very surprised it happens, that's just a hope.

The surprise in which I believe far more is the "Front de Gauche", the charisma of Mélenchon plus the base of old voters of PC that will go to vote, that could be a good cocktail. I easily imagine them in front of NPA and FN. And as I said several time, I think NPA don't really care about elections, they only bet the streets.

Still on this, I even think that, and especially in case of electoral success for "Front de Gauche", they could bury the PC and definitely merge PG and PC in this definitive Front de Gauche. Frankly that would be pretty interesting. And they could think that it gives them the advantage on NPA, which would be obviously wrong, given that, one more time, the only chance of far-left in France is the strategy of the street, and Mélenchon, who would lead that definitive Front de Gauche is worse than Besancenot in this strategy. But it can participate to make grow far-left noise in the country.

Concerning the altercation between a PS supporter and Besancenot, according to a guy from NPA at Karl Zero, that guy wasn't even a worker of the compagny involved, he was just here to blame Besancenot in front of TV cameras, meanwhile Besancenot was here because invited by CGT. Mouhahah, don't know if that's true but, frankly, if so, that's not elegant, and if so, poor PS...

About PS, well Martine Aubry seems really to get back some energy, we'll see. The important meeting with "the real Messiah" of France, Ségolène Royal (far more a Messiah than Sarkozy until now) is tomorrow, to be seen...

Hmm, to finish, the other surprise could be the greenies, but, the greenies down, what I hope given the tone of their campaign. Plus (mouhahahaahah) Bové and Cohn Bendit on the same European list!! No! No! It's the reality!! If none of them have changed on the European treaty, then there is something weird in here...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Antonio!

You finally believed in my scenario of the "born again Sarkozy"! Was a bit crazy! (That said, please anyone, if ever it happens, please, bump it ).

Well, I agree concerning the mainline of your talk. The religious aspects of things is certainly going to be more and more important in the future, and its mix with politics too, at least IMO.

But we're in France, and we're in 2009, and the only extremism that could occur here nowadays would be the far-left perspective, period. And for France, I think it's just when this far-left perspective will be completely wiped out, by having been tried or not, that we could begin to fear about the religious extremism. A religious extremism which would not correspond to the religious forms we currently know in France, would be a kind of mix of Catholicism and Evangelicals. It might sound unlikely, improbable today, but I think that trends could lead to something like this. I may won't develop here, would have a lot of things to say... Just a small example, fab gave unfavorable figures for Catholicism in France, figures for Evangelicals are pretty favorable, and regularly give about 1 new Evangelical church created each week in France, that said they remain a pretty minority today in the country, being at best 400,000.

So, first extremism: far-left. Then religion. That's why I got fun to imagine that scenario in the other topic. But all of this depends a lot of the good being of the economical and psychological situation which makes that a population turns into extremism or not.

Quite good analysis. But an apocalyptical one... A religious right movement is emerging as we both said, but my hope is that it becomes a marginal one, as the FN was before Sarko recycled its ideas. So, my greatest fear is that the UMP would be contaminated by people like Boutin and gradually becomes a religious party. Today, seems impossible. In one or two decades, we could already be accustomed...

Actually Boutin is the past, and if ever a religion danger has to come in French politics, lots of things would have changed, maybe the UMP wouldn't exist anymore, and that would come from new people, not those we know today, with a new kind of psychology, a psychology which today finds its best representation in the Ségolène Royal style, Sarkozy also plays a bit on the Messiah style but not as much as she does, using the irrational side. I think that are that side which would have today to make us wonder on what could be the future of politics and how the irrational could be very important in it in the future...

Then, we speak about France here but, we have a wonderful example of Messiah style over the seas, you might have heard about him, you know that guy recently elected, I'm sure you know him... His name: Barack Obama. That might be the "good side" of the Messiah style but that is some, and that get people used to that kind of style, especially when it comes to him because it was a kind of worldwide election. So, well, I think with this problem of religion and of what could lead to more and more religion in politics, here we are on a global scale, not only France.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Once again, I personally agree on the fact that there could be strong religious danger in the future, on the global scale, and France, even with its strong secularist tradition could be touched too. The fact that some prominent political leaders in France such as Sarkozy and Royal have some behaviors and words that tend to break our traditional borders on this would be a sign of it here.

But, really, I think that by focusing on Boutin or Villiers or stuff like that is an error. The conservatism in France is out, and will be for a long time I think, a GOP evolution is far to happen I think, now and in the future.

One more time, if we can also fear of religious problem here I think it would be more likely because of the psycholgical evolution of populations on the global scale, I mean the fact that the irrational, the emotional, and the only charisma takes more and more and more importance now and in the years to come. And this could allow all excesses. I really think that if there is something you can fear it's more likely this.

That's why personally, I pay far more attention to religious movements like evangelicals, who use very well modern technicals, who don't fear to use money and means to convert and who play 100% on the irrational/emotional/charisma. That said, to develop themselves around the world they have to adapt themselves to each country traditions, and they do it very well, no matter they are in Africa or in Russia or anywhere. And meanwhile, we have here young movements of young catholics we tends to follow the trends of evangelicals, with certainly less flexibility.

And all of this can work because of the kind of things that fab said, lack of values, but also lack of perspectives and fragility of old marks, and especially I think because of people feeling lost, psychologically fragile, emotionally more and more sensitive. Well, I think that kind of movements have here a very favorable ground for their development and that's why it could be reasonable to seriously consider that kinds of evolutions.

So I think that more than the old catholic conservatism, it would be rather relevant to pay attention to the bigger and bigger importance of irrational/emotional/charisma. And in terms of people there is someone to who I think we should really, really, really pay attention in the future in France. I saw that L'Express makes a cover on him this week, I speak about Sarkozy...Jean Sarkozy... Yes, I actually think that guy could use every means to reach power, far more than his father, using the worst populism, exploiting all that trends of the society I cited above, and, that guy has really the means, he could be redoubtable in the future...

Oh Obama? As I said I think he just played on that Messiah style, maybe very sincerely, unconsciously, and for the will to make the good, but, in facts, that's what happened, and thus shows the trends I spoke about...

The surprise in which I believe far more is the "Front de Gauche", the charisma of Mélenchon plus the base of old voters of PC that will go to vote, that could be a good cocktail. I easily imagine them in front of NPA and FN. And as I said several time, I think NPA don't really care about elections, they only bet the streets.

Still on this, I even think that, and especially in case of electoral success for "Front de Gauche", they could bury the PC and definitely merge PG and PC in this definitive Front de Gauche. Frankly that would be pretty interesting. And they could think that it gives them the advantage on NPA, which would be obviously wrong, given that, one more time, the only chance of far-left in France is the strategy of the street, and Mélenchon, who would lead that definitive Front de Gauche is worse than Besancenot in this strategy. But it can participate to make grow far-left noise in the country.

Aha, nice to see somebody picking up on my feeling about the PCF.

Yes, for a bit of time now, I felt he could be a surprise, before Libération wrote about it, and what you said about old PCF voters was for me one more argument.

I'm still very surprised of Greenies polled that high, and really hope they will fall.

Oh, and of course, my endorsement goes to Modem in this campaign, plus, in my constituency, with have a good guy from them with Robert Rochefort. That said, I won't vote, because having moved last year I had to subscribe to electoral lists, and well, I never found the mood to go for it. In that sens, I tend to understand people who don't go to vote, there is not the slightest appeal from Europe to go to, though, I acknowledged I should have subscribed, but well...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

About the official campaign clips:

PS: They still use the same "sociological" one since years and years now, good for their economy...

UMP: Unlike what they use to do, they give us here something that doesn't seem professional, bad done. Plus that's a lipdub in which all people have the words of the general secretary, Xavier Bertrand, in their mouth. Cool, that reinforce the idea we have of their democratic practices/debates...

Modem: Bayrou.

NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

NPA: Well, nothing of particular, not especially good, not especially bad, just classical.

And the best one, by far is....

Front de Gauche!

Dynamic, modern, clear, well done, good music... one more argument for them...

I haven't seen other ones, or I don't remember...

Outside of this, it seems that the meeting at PS created nothing new, everyone can see it's more or less some theater, and no energy come from them, even if Martine Aubry was a bit more dynamic these last days, it seems she clearly belongs to the past, that's at least the impress I have when I hear her speaking, I feel being back in Jospin's time, funny in a way, but I'm not sure that's efficient for them...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

Didn't see it. Linky?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxs-4TegOtY

This Elise seems to be very cool, she never gets old...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not too bad, but I have the impression that Morin's voice is not in sync with the film.

Surely Youtube.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

PS is back!!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

How many MoDem voters actually voted for Sarkozy against Royal ?

Were there any exit polls ?

Someone please update my memory ...

Hashemite would certainly have polls to carry you. From what I remember from analysts at the time, they gave 1/3 of Modem for Sarkozy, 2/3 for Royal. Something which seems pretty relevant.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Concerning the repartition of Modem votes between Sarkozy and Royal in 2007, I may have mixed up some things, because if the poll you give are accurate, then why would the commentators of the epoch have gone in a 1/3 2/3 analysis. That said it stuck enough strongly in my mind, I wonder why...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

For a few days, the Bayrou's campaign has gone down, he clearly shut himself in an anti-line and that's not a good strategy for European elections. I'm still surprised to see Greenies high, probably the fact that those who are interested in ecology are part of those who vote in Europeans.

Well, to sum up, the results of these elections could be:

#1: A very weak right.

#2: A significant fall of the PS.

#3: An eventual burying of the PCF, which could remain hard given that it seems that this party won't stop to exist until they make less than 10 voters, but in case of a good score, and with the energy of Mélenchon who could claim for it, why not...

#4: Some noises speak about an eventual creation of a "France écologie" party that would replace "Les verts".

#5: A Center-Left (PS, Modem, Greenies) which could suit with the sentence of the Tontons flingueurs quoted before, in other words, PS still ahead but no more being the major party it was before, making 3 more or less middle ones.

#6: The abstention could be very important. And the breaking of the 60% remains more than ever possible. Thus, it would express a bigger defiance toward politics and a disinterest toward Europe.

#7: The importance of the results of this elections will have to be put in perspective with that abstention and the fact that that are just European ones.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We'll see on Sunday if Bayrou's personal and furious attack on Cohn-Bendit will work....
Cohn-Bendit wasn't very good in his answers,
but Bayrou has given a BIG proof he is ready to do ANYTHING to win the next presidential election.
What a white knight...

I watched "A vous de juger". Well, because the show had been recorded in the day, "Le grand journal" of Canal+ had announced this clash as a big thing. Well, there have been effectively a clash, but it was at the beginning of the show and i didn't feel it had some weight on the rest of the debate, thus I'm surprised of noise of the media made before and makes now after this show. That said, concerning this clash in itself, that has been the first I saw Bayrou using such some bad populism, that was really "sous la ceinture" ("under the belt") as we say in French. Anyways, I think that both lost in this clash, and such a thing concerning these both parties could make the abstention go still higher, and Mélenchon could profit of this.

Bayrou clearly ran the wrong election. If he makes 12% he could be happy.

This debate also confirmed to me that more than ever Aubry belongs to the past.

2012 is far, so far...will people wait?