France General Discussion

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So, you actually thought I was asking him if whatever British media would have made an headline on the birthday of Jean Tibéri?

I didn't know if you were serious or not. OK?

[Antonio the Sixth]

You are really funny sometimes, you know ?

[Hash]

Sarkozy reaches a new low in approvals, according to TNS-Sofres for Le Figaro:

31% 'confidence' vs. 65% 'no confidence'
For Fillon, it's 39% vs. 55%

from Le Figaro:

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice to hear, but unfortunately not really meaningful. Mitterrand's aprroval weren't certainly much higher in 1986...

[Hash]

Nice to hear, but unfortunately not really meaningful. Mitterrand's aprroval weren't certainly much higher in 1986...

Chirac's utter failure between 1986 and 1988 saved him big-time in 1988. Without the cohabitation and continued direct Socialist government until 1988, he would probably have lost in 1988... apply that to Sarkozy's case as you wish.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice to hear, but unfortunately not really meaningful. Mitterrand's aprroval weren't certainly much higher in 1986...

Chirac's utter failure between 1986 and 1988 saved him big-time in 1988. Without the cohabitation and continued direct Socialist government until 1988, he would probably have lost in 1988... apply that to Sarkozy's case as you wish.

Yeah, I knew that. At the time, cohabitation was a sort of "winning strategy" that orked twice (though it's debatable for the third one). I also know that with the Presidential term reduction such situtation has become unlikely.
Still, my point was that a 30% approval rating two years before the elections has no real meaning : Presidents are very skilled in developping startegies in order to regain momentum at the very end of their term. For Mitterrand, i was cohabitation, for Sarko it will be something else.

[big bad fab]

The model for Sarkozy would be... Chirac in 1995.
But the problem is that Chirac wasn't in power then...

Presidents reelected since 1965 benefited from cohabitations (1988 and 2002), when they were in power (with means to campaign) without being in charge (so without having any responsibility in power), sort of !

The "real" incumbents lost: Giscard in 1981, Chirac in 1988, Balladur in 1995, Jospin in 2002.
In 1974, there wasn't a real incumbent (or you may argue it was Chaban). And in 2007, there wasn't any incumbent...
Of course, there is 1969. But some of you think anyway that France wasn't a "democracy" yet

The main problem for Sarkozy isn't his popularity.
The main problem for him is that the fighting inside the PS seems to settle down: it will be a "classical" fight between Aubry and DSK, probably even solved BEFORE the primaries.
The primaries will only be a way to weaken the Greens and the PG and, for some young or less young ones, to put themselves in a good position for 2017 or for the primeministership: Hollande, Moscovici, Valls.

Of course, if you listen to DSK this morning in RTL, it's clear that he wants to be candidate...
So, if he is motivated so early, the fight with Aubry may be nastier than expected in 2011.
But it won't be enough for Sarkozy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Damn, I didn't think you were so pessimistic : that makes me a bit more optimistic.
However, I doubt that fights in the PS are going to calm down, there are just too many people who want the job.

[big bad fab]

Damn, I didn't think you were so pessimistic : that makes me a bit more optimistic.
However, I doubt that fights in the PS are going to calm down, there are just too many people who want the job.

To put you back into pessimism (or not !):

a poll from... CSA, for... Marianne, and with only a 802-sample...
CSA is a crap pollster: they overestimated the FN (many times) and Bayrou; they change the first results they've got with weird "corrections"; they work here for a very anti-Sarkozy magazine (and so de facto pro-Villepin...)
Anyway:

Arthaud (LO) 1
Besancenot (NPA) 6
Buffet (PCF) 3
Aubry (PS) 19
Duflot (Verts) 8
Bayrou (MoDem) 12
Villepin (DVD) 10
Sarkozy (UMP) 32
Le Pen (FN) 9

Sarkozy 52
Aubry 48

It's amazing to see so many wasted voters: Bayrou, Villepin, Besancenot, Le Pen.
And the huge importance of the "marais": Bayrou, Villepin, Duflot.
And interesting to see how nationally the left is unable to be really better than the right.

Let's note that there isn't Mélenchon and there isn't any centre-right candidate, nor any Villiers or Boutin.

Arthaud (LO) 1
Besancenot (NPA) 7
Buffet (PCF) 3
Strauss-Kahn (PS) 22
Duflot (Verts) 9
Bayrou (MoDem) 10
Villepin (DVD) 10
Sarkozy (UMP) 29
Le Pen (FN) 9

Sarkozy 48
Strauss-Kahn 52

Well, at least, it's fine to see that an election can again be won in the center...

[Antonio the Sixth]

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Polls about a presidential 2 years before it, and especially just before an other election, shouldn't be shown more as the 'air of the time', when the fights actually begin, that's an other matter.

[big bad fab]

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

In this, you may be wrong now, because OpinionWay wants to earn money and become a big pollster, so they need a bigger credibility.
In 2007-2008, CSA was really the worst, and OpinionWay (and ViaVoice is comparable) wasn't so bad.

The problem with CSA is that Roland Cayrol thought he was really far more clever than anybody else. And he defined real weird "corrective" rules.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

All corrective rules are a problem, actually, we're here with a lot of cookers and their secrets of cooking, and no ones knows what are exactly the kind of ingredients that can come in these recipes...

[Antonio the Sixth]

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

In this, you may be wrong now, because OpinionWay wants to earn money and become a big pollster, so they need a bigger credibility.
In 2007-2008, CSA was really the worst, and OpinionWay (and ViaVoice is comparable) wasn't so bad.

The problem with CSA is that Roland Cayrol thought he was really far more clever than anybody else. And he defined real weird "corrective" rules.

You're certainly right in general, but I guess you know which particular events I was refering to. Isn't it ?

Polls about a presidential 2 years before it, and especially just before an other election, shouldn't be shown more as the 'air of the time', when the fights actually begin, that's an other matter.

100% agreed on this.

[Hash]

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

Polls about a presidential 2 years before it, and especially just before an other election, shouldn't be shown more as the 'air of the time', when the fights actually begin, that's an other matter.

I don't agree often with you, but you know I fully agree with this. Polls are overrated, by me included.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

[Hash]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

[Hash]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

The scandal being the price, and the importance that people can give to polls while them are made by things that had own interests and can of course be biased. Though, if ever you spoke about some public polls that would have been commanded by Elysée, which I'm not sure already happened, yes, it should be indicated in the poll, like it is the case for the press organisms that can command it, the same for any stuff that command a poll, all commanders should always be indicated, right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

[Hash]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

Sure, but that's not my argument and nor is it my original point...

[Antonio the Sixth]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

Sure, but that's not my argument and nor is it my original point...

As for what you said, polls commissioned by the Elysée were published by the Figaro, and considered as Figaro polls : this is just what we usually call manipulation.

[Hash]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

Sure, but that's not my argument and nor is it my original point...

As for what you said, polls commissioned by the Elysée were published by the Figaro, and considered as Figaro polls : this is just what we usually call manipulation.

Seeing as there's no hope that you'll change your attitude on the question of OpinionWay/Le Figaro polls, I'll cut this short now.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

Sure, but that's not my argument and nor is it my original point...

As for what you said, polls commissioned by the Elysée were published by the Figaro, and considered as Figaro polls : this is just what we usually call manipulation.

Seeing as there's no hope that you'll change your attitude on the question of OpinionWay/Le Figaro polls, I'll cut this short now.

If what he says is true, if polls commanded by Elysée have been in Le Figaro without being specified the fact that Elysée commanded it, then manipulation might be a bit strong, but that's not something we can congratulate. Though, I don't know whether something like that happened.