2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[RI]

FL Rs lead up to 56k

[RI]

The frustrating thing is that it was clearly explained since EV that the key to winning Florida is to keep the electorate under R+4 by getting higher Dem turnout then 2016 which is what seems to be happening. It’s gonna be close as always but nothing so far really points away from a Biden +2 victory which is what the average is

The Republicans are quickly gaining in FL so far. Still a long way to go (at R+0.6, but was D-leaning at poll open), but if they keep up their current pace, I think they do clear R+4.

[RI]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

Given how every other county is voting today, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Miami-Dade's ED vote has been R-leaning so far.

[RI]

FL gets the focus because they're the only swing state putting out live data AFAIK.

[RI]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

[RI]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

[RI]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

How did Guam go in 2016?

Clinton 71.62%
Trump 24.17%

[RI]

Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

Guam had over 30,000 voters in 2016, so I'm not going  read too much into 3500 votes.

You shouldn't read much into it even if those were the final results. It's Guam. Still think it's interesting though.

[RI]

8,800 votes in Guam now (40% partially reporting). Biden slightly gains to 55.8-41.6.

[RI]

If Guam does swing hard to Trump, what would that signal this cycle?

Perhaps the trend that's been speculated on thus far - that the minority gap is shrinking.

But doesn't Guam have a history of voting Republican in the past?

Guam usually votes for the winner of the Electoral College (except 2016).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_straw_polls_in_Guam

[RI]

Miami-Dade voted 20 points more R than Broward in both the early vote and the vote by mail. I don't see why it wouldn't be close to that on election day too, which would put Miami-Dade at about R+15 today.

[RI]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

R's probably need somewhere in the +300k to +400k range to feel good.

[RI]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

When do Sarasota, Miami-Dade, and Seminole start to provide regular updates, or do they just don't?

They won't be posting them, we will have to wait it out...

Sarasota has been posting updates, just through a different system. R's are +10k today there so far.

[RI]

Total FL turnout has almost certainly crossed 10 million at this point. First time ever for a non-CA state.

[RI]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

[RI]

If Miami-Dade is good for the R's as I think it could be, the best I can really see the R's ending up at in FL is right about +300k. Is that enough? I don't know. I think it'll be really close, like usual.

If Miami-Dade is better for the D's, Biden likely wins.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323699365077258242

That would be very good for Biden.

[RI]

R gains in FL seem to be stalling, and if M-D ED vote is going Dem, an overperformance among NPA voters seems to be the only viable path left for Trump there.

[RI]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

[RI]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

[RI]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

With the current numbers, he would need to WIN the NPA voters to have a shot.

No? Unless there's a large relative R defection to Biden relative to the D defection to Trump.

[RI]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

[RI]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323714894143827975

[RI]

Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

Or even 300k.

To clarify, Trump doesn't necessarily need +300k or +400k to win FL; he could win it with fewer. Failing to reach those targets makes the road much more difficult and likely makes him the underdog, however.

[RI]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

Guam update (82% partially reporting, 22.5k total votes): Trump slightly improves. Biden at 55.35, Trump at 41.97. Results seem pretty stable.