Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Diouf]

It seems like Mette Frederiksen can now avoid an independent lawyer review about whether there's basis for an impeachment case regarding the Mink Scandal. The Alternative had until now supported such a review, and as recently as this Sunday, their MP Torsten Gejl confirmed this in a tweet. But today, party leader Franciska Rosenkilde says that the party doesn't support such a review any longer: "We have always been in support of an independent lawyer review, but the Social Liberals didn't support that and wanted an election instead. There have now been an election, and the Danes gave Mette Frederiksen the support to continue, so what we will look for now is solutions for the future".

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/alternativ-kovending-gigantisk-loeftebrud/9496563?ilc=c

[Diouf]

Ekstra Bladet reports Mette Frederiksen will start government negotiations on Friday in the official prime ministerial residence at Marienborg.

[Diouf]

Sofie Carsten Nielsen does keep her seat in parliament. She received 2567 personal votes, while the party's spokesperson on science, health and psychiatry Stinus Lindgreen received 2221 votes. So a 246 vote margin. Very unimpressive for a leader in relation to a relatively unknown MP.

[Diouf]

Already on election night, the very influential MEP, now MP, Søren Gade opened up for the Liberals joining a government across the centre "if the price was right". It was even said before the Red Bloc majority emerged.
Now, Gade's statement was backed up by other MPs Preben Bang Henriksen and Anni Matthiesen. And Jakob Ellemann himself has opened up a bit to the idea. "We have an agreement on the challenges we face. We see the solutions in different ways. I would like to lean into this. I've entered politics to make a difference. The seats we received should get its highest possible weight." When asked directly whether he could join a government with Mette Frederiksen, he said "The clear starting point is that I'm not gonna make Mette Frederiksen PM".

[Diouf]

IA MP Aaja Chemnitz has said Lars Løkke called her on election night to hear whether she could consider supporting a Blue government with support from the Blue Bloc, which she rejected. So something Løkke has rejected as an option in public, but maybe apparently considering anyway.
Chemnitz says she supports Frederiksen forming a broad government.

[Diouf]

Martin Lidegaard is the new Social Liberal leader, and Samira Nawa is the new deputy leader. There was no election in the group, and it seems like a compromise between the two wings, which get a representative each in the leadership.

At the press conference, the MPs mentioned their demands to a new centrist government. Higher ambitions on climate and nature, investments into children and education. Defending the cultural sector. Removing the thistles in the immigration policies. Ensuring a solid economy with an expanded labour supply.

Martin Lidegaard is less in favour of the many demands and threats, the party has used in the past years. So a lot of questions were of course about this, and whether an end to the Rwanda plan was still a demand. He was fairly conclusive about this, but doesn't talk so directly, so when the question was asked for the fifth time, Nawa stepped in and simply said yes.

He was asked whether the party would form a centrist alliance with the Moderates to ensure a centrist government with the two parties, but Lidegaard said since he had just become leader, he hadn't had the chance to talk to the other party leaders yet.

https://twitter.com/cathrinebloch/status/1588223160012488704

Negotiations start tomorrow at 08.00. Mette Frederiksen will meet with all parties, in order after their size. Statistics Denmark will not publish the official distribution of seats until 12.00 tomorrow, but there hasn't been any indication that the seat distribution will change.

[Diouf]

It seems like Mette Frederiksen can now avoid an independent lawyer review about whether there's basis for an impeachment case regarding the Mink Scandal. The Alternative had until now supported such a review, and as recently as this Sunday, their MP Torsten Gejl confirmed this in a tweet. But today, party leader Franciska Rosenkilde says that the party doesn't support such a review any longer: "We have always been in support of an independent lawyer review, but the Social Liberals didn't support that and wanted an election instead. There have now been an election, and the Danes gave Mette Frederiksen the support to continue, so what we will look for now is solutions for the future".

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/alternativ-kovending-gigantisk-loeftebrud/9496563?ilc=c

The Alternative made a 180 on their 180. Now they again support an independent lawyer review. Party leader Franciska Rosenkilde says: "The day after the election I was met by a journalist from Jyllands-Posten. He asked whether we still supported an independent lawyer review. And honestly, I answered too quickly. Personally I've moved on from mink and and lawyer reviews, but due to too little sleep after a long campaign, I answered too quickly. My mistake. Now we've met in the new parliamentary group, and the other five MPs do not back my position on this. I of course listen to them. So the official Alternative position is, as before the election, that we support an independent lawyer review".

So they are now again for such a investigation, but it doesn't exactly sound like something she will push hard for in potential government negotiations. The Moderates also seem to backed somewhat on the question of a review. In the campaign, Løkke demanded such a review, but now it's more of a starting point and something they would like to have. So it still seems like there's a good chance we won't get such a review.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2022-11-04-alternativet-i-dobbelt-kovending-stoetter-alligevel-advokatvurdering-af-minksagen

[Diouf]

The first goverment negotiations took place Friday.
Most of the Blue parties are of course quite hard to see in any new majority, but only the Denmark Democrats won't participate in further negotiations. The other parties will meet with Frederiksen again on Monday. But it doesn't look very likely that New Right, DPP, Liberal Alliance and probably Conservatives will play any significant role.

So most of the attention is about the potential majorities, and how the Social Liberals, the Moderates and IA will act in these negotiations. Particularly the question of whether the parties will bundle their seats together. This will ensure that no government can be formed without them. Because if they act alone, the Social Liberals could be shut out of a Social Democrat - Liberal - Moderate majority, while the Moderates could be shut out of a pure Red Bloc majority (if IA backs this). Together, they would be basically impossible to get around. But of course, the question is whether there is the necessary mutual trust and whether they want to prioritize the same things.

Both Moderates and Social Liberals will want economic reforms to secure a bigger labour supply and control inflation. Climate and nature will be a big demand from the Social Liberals, which doesn't seem to interest Løkke that much, but with the electorate he has now, it shouldn't be a major problem for him to go along with most of them. Løkke has a lot of interest in reforming health policy, which I don't think Social Liberals would have much trouble with going along with. As always, the thorny question for the Social Liberals is immigration, and now particularly the Rwanda plan. The party continues to insist that it's an ultimatum that this plan is scrapped, even though the new leader Martin Lidegaard obviously doesn't like that they've ended in that position. Løkke won't make it an ultimatum, but probably correctly figures that in the end judges, international organiations etc. will find some way to block it. So this is a decisive point. Can some agreement be made where the Social Democrats in some way gets to keep the Rwanda plan alive, while the Social Liberals get to show they've stopped it? Maybe there can be made some compromise, where the government has to work on expanding the model with more European countries or even the EU, so the process is slowed down and the project becomes unmanageble (but still ongoing). And then both parties will insist on easing immigration rules, so it's much easier for refugees who work or study to stay in the country, even if their asylum expires etc.

Lars Løkke already seems to be doing a fair bit to create such a situation. He met with IA MP Aaja Chemnitz again Friday, and will certainly be happy to include a lot of Greenlandic demands in government negotiations. Løkke has also stated that it would be wise for parties to talk together outside of the official proces, which Mette Frederiksen will get to own. He mentions talking with Liberal Alliance, Liberals and Social Liberals about economic reforms. He says the parties shouldn't then go into the government negotiations together, but it would be wise to coordinate demands.
Martin Lidegaard seemed fairly open to that request: "We will have contact with all parties. But we're having a real negotiating proces here (with Frederiksen). We won't run a parallel process somewhere else. But we're curious about what other parties have to say, and would like to facilitate that process. So we will have a dialogue with other parties. Not as a competition to this process, but as an attempt to end out with a really, broad government".

DR has an article with reactions from all the parties after the government negotiations on Friday: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/danmarksdemokraterne-er-ude-og-chemnitz-drikker-kaffe-med-loekke

[Diouf]

The share of women MP will be the highest ever with 44%, which means 79 of the 179 MPs.

The top of 15 personal vote totals are:

1. Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats, Northern Jutland. 60 837
2. Inger Støjberg, Denmark Democrats, Northern Jutland. 47 211
3. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Moderates, Zealand. 38 439
4. Alex Vanopslagh, Liberal Alliance, Eastern Jutland. 38 284
5. Jacob Mark, SPP, Zealand. 31 235
6. Magnus Heunicke, Social Democrats, Zealand. 22 102
7. Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, Liberals, Eastern Jutland. 20 945
8. Pia Olsen Dyhr, SPP, Copenhagen. 18 758
9. Nicolai Wammen, Social Democrats, Eastern Jutland. 18 022
10. Søren Gade, Liberals, Western Jutland. 17 998
11. Søren Pape Poulsen, Conservatives, Western Jutland. 15 767
12. Franciska Rosenkilde, Alternative, Copenhagen. 15 699
13. Pernille Vermund, New Right, Southern Jutland. 15 375
14. Pelle Dragsted, Red-Green Alliance, Copenhagen. 14 129
15. Mattias Tesfaye, Social Democrats, Copenhagen Environs. 13 948

The much media talk of the Frederiksen - Støjberg battle in Northern Jutland have probably boosted the personal vote count of them both further. And particularly for Støjberg, there wasn't much competition from other names inside her own party. Other than that, the expected strong results for Løkke and Vanopslagh, the popular leaders of booming parties. The most popular of all minister, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke, also very high, and SPP boy wonder Jacob Mark still very high despite being ill for a part of this term. He is the personification of their minimum personel quotas in kindergartens, which have been SPPs main achievement.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats went a bit forward to 27.6% and gained 2 seats to reach 50, their best election result since 2001. The most prominent Minister to lose his seat was Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jeppe Kofod, who didn't win one of the seven Social Democrat seats in Zealand. He was drafted straight in as minister from the European Parliament, and hasn't been very prominent this term, but still something of a surprise to see the Foreign Minister not be elected to parliament for the second election in a row. His 2008 underage sex case certainly also continues to haunt him. Another Minister, Rasmus Prehn, just managed to keep his seat despite his expenses scandals. He won the last of their seven seats in Northern Jutland with 1 899 personal votes, 62 votes ahead of his nearest rival and the lowest personal votes of all Social Democratic MPs. 9 of their MPs are elected for the first time. The most prominent is perhaps 28-year old Frederik Vad, who lead the Social Democrat Youth from 2017-2022. Also there's a new MP from the Hækkerup family. 28-year old Fie Hækkerup won a seat in Northern Zealand, which her dad Nick Hækkerup represented until leaving government earlier this year.

Liberals crashed down to 13.3% and 23 seats, their worst result since 1988. Several of their prominent MPs already left during the term, either to other parties or leaving parliament. Of those standing again, Eva Kjer Hansen is perhaps the most prominent to lose her seat. She has been a MP since 1990 and held four different ministerial jobs. Also their well-known spokesperson on transport Kristian Pihl Lorentzen, a MP since 2007, lost his seat. The election will lead to half of their MEP group being changed, since both Søren Gade and Linea Søgaard-Lidell were elected to parliament. For the last 1.5 year of this EP term, they will be replaced by Bergur Løkke Rasmussen (yes, the son of a certain ex-Liberal politician) and Kim Valentin (who has just lost his seat as MP).

Moderates stormed into parliament with 9.3% and 16 seats. Aside from Løkke and Jakob Engel-Schmidt, none of them has previously been a MP. The most famous names, Jon Stephensen, Jeppe Søe, Henrik Frandsen, Nanna Gotfredsen and Monika Rubin were all elected. Rosa Eriksen also looks like someone who could be a prominent face of the party, after an impressive campaign and 4 469 personal votes, the third highest among their MPs. Løkke dragged two additional MPs into parliament from his Zealand constituency, and with Løkke himself getting almost all the votes, Mike Villa Fonseca got into parliament on just 505 personal votes.

[Diouf]

SPP, which I just realized now changed their official English name into Green Left at this year's conference, gained slightly to reach 8.3% and 15 seats (+1). The ex-Alternative MP Rasmus Nordqvist only finished 5th among the party's three candidates in Eastern Jutland, so didn't get one of their three seats. Instead 26-year old Sofie Lippert, leader of SPP Youth from 2019-2021, grapped one of those three seats. In Copenhagen, where 4 incumbent MPs fought for three seats, it was unfortunately Halime Oguz who lost her seat. Another new face in the group is Sigurd Agersnap, councillor since 2018 and deputy mayor since January in Lyngby-Taarbæk. As seen on the personal vote tally, Jacob Mark again got an outstanding personal vote, far more than party leader Pia Olsen Dyhr, and will certainly play a key role in the party.

Denmark Democrats burst into parliament with 8.1% and 14 seats. But despite being a new party, far more of them have parliamentary experience. Støjberg herself + 8 ex-DPP MPs enter parliament for the new party. The additional 5 are an ex-Liberal councillor, an ex-DPP councillor, two children of DPP MPs + a businesswoman. Inger Støjberg is of course gonna be the key figure, with DPP co-founder Peter Skaarup as the likely parliamentary group leader. Dennis Flydtkjær had a great personal election with 7 501 personal votes in Western Jutland, and could be the party's face on economic questions. The two MPs dragged in by Støjberg in Northern Jutland, Lise Bech and Kristian Bøgsted got in on 521 and 480 personal votes respectively. Of the many ex-DPP faces, I'm interested to see how Susie Jessen does, daughter of Søren Espersen and has previously worked as speechwriter in DPP.

Liberal Alliance had a brilliant campaign, and ended up on 7.9% and 14 seats, their best ever result. Their three existing MPs of course all got re-elected, but of the new 11 MPs, only Carsten Bach has previously been in parliament. Faroese lawyer Sólbjørg Jakobsen had a great election in Northern Jutland with 4 421 personal votes, and could very well get a significant spokesperson position in the group. She will also be a needed female face in a male-dominated party. Five of the new MPs are women, three of them on the most marginal seats. One of them is 21-year old shop assistent and leader of the Kolding LA Youth Helena Artmann Andresen.

[Diouf]

Conservatives dropped like a stone throughout the campaign, and landed on 5.5% and 10 seats (-2). This meant all those who have joined the party ended up losing their seats. Ex-Liberal MPs Marcus Knuth, Britt Bager and Gitte Willumsen + ex-Christian Democrat leader Isabella Arendt all failed to get elected. Instead, eight of their ten MPs are incumbents. The two new faces are Helle Bonnesen and Lise Bertelsen, councillors in Copenhagen and Viborg respectively. If Søren Pape is replaced as leader, there are three likely candidates, all of whom did decent enough. Mette Abildgaard performed the best with 6 376 votes in Northern Zealand, and will be the voice of the green wing of the party. Rasmus Jarlov got 5 216 personal votes in Copenhagen Environs, and is the voice of the tough on immigration wing. Finally, a potential consensus candidate, Mai Mercado, got 4 426 personal votes.

Red-Green Alliance dropped to 5.1% and 9 seats (-4). With the party using the semi-closed list system, there is little incentive to hunt personal votes for the candidates. So the Red-Green had the candidate elected with the fewest personal votes. Søren Egge Rasmussen who only won 264 personal votes in the large Southern Jutland constituency. Ex-SPP MP Trine Pertou Mach enters parliament for the party this time. Mai Villadsen is likely to be replaced as front figure during this term by Pelle Dragsted, the former violent Antifa activist who has turned into the party's most well-spoken and popular figure, whose book on Nordic Socialism has won a lot of praise.

Social Liberals, who caused this early election, went down to 3.8% and only 7 seats (-9), the worst result since 1990. Party leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen did get elected in the end, but with a horrible personal vote result of 2 467 votes, only just beating one of the party's less prominent incumbent MPs Stinus Lindgreen. Parliamentary group leader Andreas Steenberg lost his seat, and the Helveg Petersen dynasty is no longer represented after Rasmus lost his seat in Funen. Deputy leader, and now new leader Martin Lidegaard did great with 7 167 votes in Northern Zealand. Samira Nawa fairly convincingly won the party's seat in Copenhagen amid tough competition. How well, Lidegaard and Nawa's new leadership will function will be quite influential, both in the government formation and the stability of such a government. Despite the heavy loss, the most likely outcome is one with Social Liberals in a decisive role.

[Diouf]

New Right went forward to 3.7% and 6 seats (+2). All four incumbent MPs got safely reelected. Their two new MPs are Kim Edberg Andersen + Mikkel Bjørn. Edberg is a former DPP councillor, who almost got elected for his former party in 2019 despite DPP losing many seats. He again ran an impressive and expensive campaign, and received 5 218 personal votes. Mikkel Bjørn led New Right Youth from 2016-2021. Vermund has reneged on her earlier promise of only sitting two terms, so they don't necessary have to prepare a new leader for the next campaign. Lars Boje Mathiesen did really well in Eastern Jutland with 11 150 personal votes, and is perhaps the best candidate if she does decide not to continue.

Alternative progressed slightly to 3.3% and 6 seats (+1). They did so much better in Copenhagen than in the rest of the country, that they ended up getting two of their six seats in Copenhagen. This means their entire group in the Copenhagen City Council is changed, as their two newly elected MPs are their two current councillors, party leader Franciska Rosenkilde and 25-year old political science student Christina Olumeko. Theresa Scavenius is elected for the party in Northern Jutland. She finished 2nd in the Alternative leadership election in 2020, and then afterwards left the party like many others. She founded her own party, Momentum, which never really got off the ground, and as a part of the late green consolidation, the party folded into the Alternative.

DPP stayed in parliament with 2.6% and 5 seats, their worst ever result. Most of the party's MPs had already left the party, so it was only Rene Christensen and Susanne Eilersen who lost their seats at the election in the direct battles for their party's few seats. Parliamentary group leader Christensen got fewer votes than party founder Pia Kjærsgaard in the Zealand district, while Eilersen lost out to the party's MEP and deputy leader Peter Kofod in Southern Jutland. With Kofod entering parliament, his good friend and ex-MEP Anders Vistisen will instead return to the European Parliament. In eastern Jutland, a new MP enters parliament as councillor Nick Zimmermann is elected. After the exodus earlier this year, there should finally be calm in the party. However, Messerschmidt's re-trial will start soon, and if sentenced again, there could be renewed doubt over his leadership position, with Kofod being in charge, at least temporarily.

Independent Greens received 0.9% in their first election. They did manage to do well at some of the most immigrant polling places in or around Copenhagen, Odense and Aarhus, but it hasn't managed to expand much beyond that. Even in big cities like Aalborg and Esbjerg, they barely get any votes. And while the immigrant vote outside Copenhagen and Aarhus is perhaps generally better integrated and less likely to vote for a immigrant party, they should still be able to do much better in the rest of the country than they did. It could make sense with a name change, and ditching the last parts of the intersectional ideas, and make a more coherent message with full focus on the immigration question. There seem to be very few votes in the woke stuff. In Eastern Jutland, the somewhat prominent Niko Grünfeld, a former ex-Alternative mayor in Copenhagen, only got 377 votes, while Mohamed Abdikarim got 752 votes.

Christian Democrats were really close in 2019, but this time dropped all the way back to 0.5%, their worst result ever. They had a real chance to go for the pragmatic, centrist party position with Arendt and Rohde, but instead went back into abortion infighting and total irrelevance while Løkke boomed in the centrist position. There's still an established party organization, and they did well in the 2021 local and regional elections (winning 12 local and 1 regional councillor) before Arendt and Rohde left, so they will probably continue. But in this election, they had very little relevance.

[Diouf]

After a record high number of MPs shifting parliament in the recent term, we start out this one with the first change already six days after the election. The New Right's Mette Thiesen has left the party to become an independent. This seems mostly based in personal relations. Thiesen's boyfriend had several times acted in a threatening way towards New Right employees, and she was told in strong terms not to bring him to the election night party. She did anyway, and he ended up assaulting a New Right employee and was carried away from the party. The party's executive committee was to meet today to discuss the question and possible sanctions, and she just announced before the meeting that she's leaving the party.

Marianne Karlsmose has resigned as leader of the Christian Democrats, and has proposed that the party no longer tries to run for parliament, but focuses on local and regional elections. This comes after the party's worst election result since its founding in 1970. An extraordinary conference is likely to be called soon, which will elect a new leader and probably discuss whether to collect signatures for a new attempt to enter parliament.

Today there was another round of government negotiations. This time with focus on health policy. No additional parties have left the negotiations. I intend to continue updates in this thread until we have a new government, and then create a new generel elections and politics thread.

[Diouf]

Frederik Hjorth has created this analysis of the parties' support according to population density in the polling places. The x axis is population density, the y axis is support, the size of the bubble is determined by number of voters at the polling place.

https://twitter.com/fghjorth/status/1590261787618078720

[Diouf]

Kasper Løvkvist has written an analysis of the split in the Liberals around joining a government or not.

He says the division is different from the normal ones around a rural and an urban wing. This is more between a younger battle-ready wing and an older, more pragmatic wing. The first group is said to include MPs like Sophie Løhde, Morten Dahlin and Marie Bjerre. They argue against joining a government. They believe the Liberals will be crushed in a government with the Social Democrats, and can't stand being in a government with Mette Frederiksen after campaigning hard against her. And they see a big threat in this allowing Denmark Democrats and/or Conservatives to grow on their behalf. The second group include MPs like Søren Gade, Preben Bang Henriksen, Jan E. Jørgensen and probably Troels Lund Poulsen. They argue a responsible party should seek influence and ministerial posts, and shut the Red-Greens and potentially SPP out of influence. They also see Jakob Ellemann-Jensen gaining experience from an influential ministry as something which would boost his chances of looking like a potential PM.

Løvkvist says Ellemann is somewhere in the middle, but perhaps leaning towards the group reluctant to join a government. The agricultural and fisheries part of the party is said to support joining a government, while a slight majority of the members tend to lean towards it being too dangerous to do.

https://avisendanmark.dk/artikel/l%C3%B8vkvist-venstre-spaltet-i-to-t%C3%B8r-de-g%C3%A5-med-mette-frederiksen

[Diouf]

Mette Frederiksen continues the thematic meetings with the parties about different topics, which have been planned for the next around two weeks. So we are already looking towards what could be a record-long government formation. Parliament data shows that the longest government formation from 1953 to now was the 35 days it took after the 1975 election.

The government has announced it's preparing a simple spending bill as the official 2023 Budget. That would simply continue the current budget, so that public sector employees can be paid. This is due to it being unsure whether a government is formed, and a budget adopted before the end of the year. Instead, a new government would then make a proper budget early next year with political priorities and movement of funds.

Red-Green Alliance has said it will no-confidence all governments with the Moderates, as they consider them as blue as the official blue bloc parties. This is probably not that surprising. If the Moderates are included, the Red-Green seats aren't necessary for a majority. In the best of cases, such a government could perhaps have hoped that Red-Greens would be neutral towards it, but with the economic reforms such a government could carry out, it was likely a forlorn hope.
By already making it public, they are putting extra pressure on the SPP and the Socialdemocrat left wing in these negotiations. It could also be seen as preparing for the potential role as sharp left-wing opposition to a centrist government with blue economic reforms.

No additional parties have left the negotiations yet. It could be that some of the parties, who are not gonna be part of a majority, will use one of the themes discussed as the reason to leave. Economy and inflation will be discussed again on Tuesday, and if that's the last day on that, I guess it could make sense for a party like the Liberal Alliance and New Right to leave if they see the distance as being too big between them and the government. With the anger the Red-Greens is already showing, it should maybe not be ruled out that they leave if they think Frederiksen is already preparing to go centrist. And then she would have to call them again if the centrist project fails.

Red-Greens, SPP, DPP and Denmark Democrats have demanded that the government starts immediate negotiations about extra winter help for those hurt by rising energy and food prices. The government so far rejects this.

[Diouf]

The new parliament meets for the first time on Tuesday the 15 November. Their first task is to approve of the election and distribute the posts in the parliamentary leadership and committees. The most prestigious post is that as Speaker of parliament. The Liberals have stated that they propose Søren Gade for that post, and Mette Frederiksen has just announced that the Social Democrats is supporting him. That is only 73 seats, but I think many other parties will end up supporting him as well now. And another situation where Mette Frederiksen wants to show her willingness towards broad cooperation.
Also the Social Democrats themselves did not necessarily have a really obvious candidate for the post.

Edit: SPP already out to support him as well.
Now Moderates and New Right as well. So the majority is already certain

[Diouf]

Søren Gade was today elected temporary Speaker at the opening session of parliament. Tomorrow he will be elected Speaker and the other positions in the parliamentary leadership and committees will be elected.
Gade is backed by all parties, except Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative. The Red-Greens said they wouldn't back him due to the scandals during his time as Minister of Defence, while the Alternative said that they "wouldn't take part in a political horse trade meant to clear the way towards a centrist government without serious climate ambitions".

https://twitter.com/jppolitik/status/1592512636452995072


In other news, Liberal re-elected MP Karen Ellemann has already announced that she will leave parliament to take the job as General Secretary of the Nordic Council of Ministers from January. This means that Kim Valentin, who lost his seat in parliament and was on his way to take his seat as a MEP, will take Ellemann's seat in parliament. Therefore, Erik Poulsen will now become a MEP for some months, despite only ending up as the third substitute member for the Liberals back in 2019.

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This weekend, there's the Liberal party conference, which is seen as a cardinal event in the government negotiations, as there could be some indication of whether the rank-and-file Liberal members support a potential government with the Social Democrats. Lars Løkke said he thinks the main reason for the slow progress in the negotiations has been that everybody is waiting for what the Liberals will do.

Jakob Ellemann just held his conference speech. He said the Liberals now needed to stand more in its own right, and not just as a the sum of whatever could be agreed with the other Blue parties. He clearly ditches the strategy the party used in the campaign of showing a united, Blue Bloc front. He said that as long as there's such a clear red/purple majority, the Liberals has to seek the compromises and affect the development of Denmark instead of sitting in opposition with your arms folded. He says the party doesn't just have political differences with the Social Democrats, but also there's a need to rebuild trust after what happened in the recent term. Finally, he asks the Liberal members for patience, so he in the best way can explore who best to position the Liberals and ensure the biggest possible imprint in Danish politics.

In terms of parliamentary leadership, Søren Gade was elected Speaker of parliament. Leif Lahn from the Social Democrats will be 1st Deputy Speaker, Jeppe Søe from the Moderates will be 2nd Deputy Speaker, Karsten Hønge from SPP will be 3rd Deputy Speaker and Karina Adsbøl from Denmark Democrats will be 4th Deputy Speaker.

[Diouf]

Today, the number of parties participating in the government negotations was reduced. New Right, Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative are out of the negotiations. As mentioned some days ago, the Red-Green Alliance was already raising their rhetorical attacks against the Social Democrats, and seemingly realizing that they weren't gonna be in the negotiations for the long haul. Frederiksen states that the eight remaining parties are those who can see themselves in a broad government or as a part of a binding cooperation with such a government, perhaps as support party. Of the remaining parties, I would still doubt that Liberal Alliance, DPP and probably Conservatives end up as support parties for a Social Democrat-led broad government, but perhaps they can agree to some policy objectives on parts of such a government's programme. In the best case for the government, there might be a small chance that one of them could agree to vote neutrally in a potential confidence vote.

Frederiksen said that it will still take several weeks before a government is formed. The most discussed government majorities are:
- Social Democrat - Liberals - Moderates - (Social Liberals)
- Social Democrats - Moderates - SPP - Social Liberals
- Social Democrats - Liberals - SPP

The first option is the classic centrist government with the two big parties from each bloc + one or both of the centrist parties. The Social Liberals isn't on paper needed for the majority, but could be added anyway to shore up the government in terms of seats. However, for the Social Democrats it could be uneasy to form a majority with three parties who are centre-rightish on economy, and it leaves the quite mainstream, boring SPP as an option for their disssatisfied left wing.
The second option is the standard centre-left option, just with the Moderates added.
The third option is quite weird on paper as a government across the centre, but without the centrist parties. However, that is exactly the benefit of it, as the two big parties then get to keep out Løkke, whom they don't trust, and his untested parliamentary group which could crumble. Similarly, the unruly Social Liberals with their ultimate immigration demands can be kept out.


In other news, Morten Messerschmidt's parliamentary immunity has been lifted again, so his re-trial can start tomorrow. Peter Kofod, who was previously deputy leader, and therefore likely to take over temporarily if Messerschmidt is sentenced, will no longer have that role, mostly due to personal issues after a tough divorce. Instead, René Christensen will have that role. He he has been the party's fairly prominent financial spokesperson for years, but wasn't elected for parliament in the recent election.

There are already the first problems in the new Moderate group. MP Kristian Klarskov has today resigned from parliament, after Jyllands-Posten revealed that his entrepreneurial credentials were much less rosy than he had portrayed them. He hasn't earned any money for ten years, the last four years he has only owned an inactive company, and he approved an illegal financial statement of his company back in 2011 despite warnings from the accountant. He will be replaced by Mohammed Rona.

[Diouf]

SPP has now left the negotiations, which eliminates two of three likely majority options for a centrist government. Pia Olsen Dyhr said things has "become too blue", and that the Liberals further raised the demands for right-wing economic policies after the Conservatives left the negotiations. She also says her party is too far from the Liberals on agriculture, climate and social policies. Somehow, Liberal Alliance and DPP are still officially a part of the negotiations, but it doesn't sound like they are meeting much, if at all, with the Social Democrats.

So we are now down to the Social Democrat - Liberal - Moderate - (Social Liberal) majority option, the true centrist one. The first two parties will certainly be a part of such a new government, and then the question is whether both of the two latter are a part of the majority (probably), and whether they will join the government or just be support parties.

[Diouf]

Government negotiations are in the final stretch with the four likely majority parties, Social Democrats, Liberals, Moderates and Social Liberals carrying out intense negotiations for recent days. Liberals and Moderates have made one of the most painful concessions by both giving up the independent lawyer investigation of the mink scandal, which should consider whether or not an impeachment case could be started again Mette Frederiksen. This has predictably caused a lot of criticism from the other Blue parties, and from (so far, minor) parts of the Liberals themselves. Their willigness to go public with that concession should mean that it should be basically certain that the parties will soon present a new government agreement.

[Diouf]

The Social Liberals have now left the government negotiations. Party leader Martin Lidegaard says: "We won't be a support party for the new government, but not in opposition to it either", so that must mean voting blank in a confidence vote. The fractured Social Liberal group discussed the issue, and the decision they ended with is probably not the one Lidegaard wanted. He said: "My proposal to the group was "What do you think about this? I think the content is good on these issues, and bad on those issues". And then we had a discussion. There were of course different attitudes toward it. Pro and contra. On the basis of those discussions, I made the decision". Lidegaard says the party wanted more ambitious stuff on climate, education and children. On the question of Rwanda, Lidegaard said that an acceptable compromise has been found on that question, so that issue wasn't the one blocking things.

Lidegaard said the new government programme will be presented tomorrow, and everything points towards a majority government with the Social Democrats, Liberals, Moderates. All 4 North Atlantic seats should support it as well.

[Diouf]

Mette Frederiksen has just been to tell the queen that she is ready to form a government consisting of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates. She announced that the government's programme will be presented tomorrow, and the new government presented on Thursday.