EP elections 2014

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But this isn't a national election (and neither was 1989).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

On an unrelated issue, why on earth was the Green vote so high back then?

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

On an unrelated issue, why on earth was the Green vote so high back then?

Bit've a perfect storm for them I guess. The Alliance being in free fall, MT on the way out, poll tax, protest vote and Chernobyl only being a few years before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The environment became a major political issue for the first time in the 1980s (even before Chernobyl) and none of the mainstream parties had much to say on the matter. European elections are meaningless mickey mouse elections. The centre parties were in a mess and not able to pick up protest votes, and...

[Tender Branson]

1 day before voting starts in the UK and Netherlands, the site "PollWatch2014" is out with their final prediction:

EPP on the verge of victory

by Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham

We forecast that the European People’s Party will hold on as the largest party in the European Parliament.  The final set of EP election polls from across Europe over this last weekend suggest that the EPP will emerge as the largest group with 217 seats (29 per cent), 16 seats ahead of the Socialists and Democrats with 201 seats (27 per cent).

While we expect the EPP to lose over 40 seats compared to 2009, over the course of this election campaign the EPP member parties have consolidated their position in many countries, in particular in Poland, Hungary, and Germany.  In contrast, while we expect S&D to make some gains since 2009, over the course of the campaign many of its parties have slipped back.  This has particularly been the case in France, the UK, Poland, and Hungary. Meanwhile, support for anti-European parties on the populist right has risen in northern Europe, especially in the UK, France and Denmark, while support for radical left parties has risen in countries that have suffered economic downturn, particularly in Greece, Spain and Ireland.

But, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion.  Taking into account the margins of error in the latest polls, and on the basis of 1000 simulations of what might happen, there still remains a 15% probability that S&D will be larger than the EPP.

Meanwhile, our final prediction is that ALDE will remain the third largest group, just ahead of GUE in fourth, with G/EFA in fifth, ECR sixth and EFD seventh.  Here is the summary table of our final forecast for each member state compared to the current make-up of the EP.

A final caveat is that these numbers do not take account of potential party switches between groups or of which groups the currently non-attached parties will eventually join – in particular where the 18-20 MEPs from Italy’s 5 Star Movement will sit.  For a final prediction taking these potential changes into account see the latest blog from the VoteWatch Europe team.

Whether looking at our final forecast based on current group membership or the potential shifts in group membership, the main trend overall will be a dramatic polarisation of the Parliament.  There will be a significant increase in the proportion of MEPs on the right of the EPP, from approximately 16% in the current Parliament to 22% in the new one, as well as a slight increase in the proportion of MEPs on the left of S&D, from 12% to 13%.

Put another way, there will be a “squeezed middle”, with the three largest groups (EPP, S&D, ALDE) down from 72% of MEPs to only 65%.  This will force EPP and S&D to work together to get anything done, since neither an EPP-led coalition without S&D nor an S&D-led coalition without EPP is likely to command a majority.

So, expect a “grand coalition” on most big issues, starting with the choice of the Commission President.  On this front, Jean-Claude Juncker is now in poll position heading into the election.

http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/pollsblog

Country map:

http://www.electio2014.eu/pollsandscenarios/polls

[Enno von Loewenstern]

http://news.electio2014.eu/en/what-groups-will-form-in-the-new-ep-votewatch-europe-analysis-update/

What groups will form in the new EP? VoteWatch Europe analysis (UPDATE)

by Simon Hix, Doru Frantescu, Joan Manuel Lanfranco Pari and Michiel van Hulten[1]

 

With one day to go until voting starts, today’s PollWatch2014 prediction has EPP on the verge of victory: 217 to 201 for S&D. The updated PollWatch2014 summary tables can be found here. Based on today’s PollWatch2014 prediction the VoteWatch Europe team has considered what might happen in terms of the changing make-up of the political groups after the elections. This is by definition a speculative exercise as not all political parties have made their intentions known.

Most significantly we expect a new group to form – the European Alliance for Freedom (EAF), from the transnational party with that name – probably comprising FN from France, PVV from the Netherlands, FPÖ from Austria, VB from Belgium, LN from Italy, SNS from Slovakia, and SD from Sweden. It takes at least 25 MEPs from 7 countries to form a new group – we think EAF will reach that threshold.

ANO from the Czech Republic is very likely to join ALDE. UPyD from Spain might also fit more comfortably in ALDE than in the NI (non-attached). Despite the poor voting record match, we think N-VA from Belgium could join ECR, as some media have been speculating, partly because the alternatives are even harder to envisage. DFP from Denmark and Perussuomalaiset from Finland could also join ECR, but for now we assume that they will remain in EFD.

On the other hand, given their growing Euroscepticism, M5S from Italy is more likely to join Nigel Farage in EFD than sit with the more pro-European Greens/EFA. The politically cohesive Greens/EFA group may also not welcome such a large maverick contingent among their ranks, and as the largest delegation, M5S would oust the German Greens from their leading role.

The overall parliament would then look like this:

New EP with EAF 20 May

As for other parties labelled as ‘non-attached’ in PollWatch2014 forecasts, we assume the German Pirates could join the GUE-NGL group (as the Austrian Pirates run together with the Communist Party of Austria in the electoral Alliance Europa Anders). The ALDE group could also receive new members from the German Freie Wähler and Greek To Potami. Other parties joining the EFD group could be the Polish Kongres Nowej Prawicy and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.

Compared to the outgoing Parliament, the new Parliament would be more polarised: with more MEPs on the radical left and on the right of the EPP. In this scenario the three potential groups to the right of EPP would have enough MEPs from a sufficient number of member states to form. EFD could emerge as the fourth largest group, GUE-NGL as fifth, ECR sixth, Greens/EFA seventh, and the new EAF group  in eighth place. This is all speculation of course. A lot of tough bargaining between parties and their prospective groups will follow the European elections. We may not know the final composition of the groups until the last week of June.

[afleitch]

The environment became a major political issue for the first time in the 1980s (even before Chernobyl) and none of the mainstream parties had much to say on the matter. European elections are meaningless mickey mouse elections. The centre parties were in a mess and not able to pick up protest votes, and...

That and the fact the Lib Dems were still the SLD at that time. There was little conscious awareness of them and in many ways, there wasn't until the 'close' campaign in '92.

The only thing this election might be good for is telling us where UKIP voters are. Problem is the patterns for 2004 don't tell us (especially where Kilroy stood) and neither really do the votes in 2009. But it might be helpful for those who want to know where they might win take the Lib Dem's place as the fairly distant second against a Tory duffer in East Anglia.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

The ARD duel between the top candidates of the European Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, Martin Schulz (SPD) and Jean-Claude Juncker, the transmitter complained miserable ratings. A mere 2.9 percent of 14 - to 49 viewers interested in the "electoral arena."

At all ages, the show came to 8.6 percent, remaining far behind the offering of the private sector. Both politicians argued on the show for a greater transfer of powers to Brussels. Candidates from other parties were not desired by the public broadcaster.

Similar shipwrecked on Tuesday and ZDF with his documentary "Contested Travel - Europe and the flows of refugees". At all ages, the film achieved a market share of just 4.8 percent. In the 14 - to 49 year olds watched 2.5 percent.

[Tender Branson]

For the German speakers/readers:

The political blog neuwal.com has released their EP Election Almanach.

It features an overview for each party incl. facts and election results, their EP election program and an interview with the frontrunners:

http://neuwal.com/walmanach/eu14/ebook/neuwal-walmanach-eu14.pdf

[Enno von Loewenstern]

How often have Eurosceptic/far-right parties voted together in 2009-2014?

http://www.votewatch.eu/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/votewatch-europe-end-of-term-scorecard-part-3-far-right-parties-final.pdf

[Zanas]

Made an aggregation of French polls, and a few things they teach us. It's in French, it's on my blog. Learn French, or google-translate it.

I'll give you this though :

   16-mai   20-mai   21-mai
FN   23,21   22,95   22,91
UMP   21,87   21,33   21,58
PS   16,65   17,09   17,11
Modem-UDI   8,84   9,40   9,51
EELV   9,10   8,90   8,79
FG   6,94   7,21   7,23
DLR   2,54   2,55   2,55
ND      1,99   1,88
NPA   1,43   1,37   1,27


And the latest repartition by seats :

FN   22,91   21
UMP   21,58   19
PS   17,11   14
Modem-UDI   9,51   7
EELV   8,79   6
FG   7,23   4


Many things can be inferred from these. Ask any question, I'll try my best.

[Cassius]

Did a little poll at school today (this election has generated a bizarre amount of interest - probably because its the first in which most of us will be voting). These were the results:

Green: 5
UKIP: 5 (including me)
Conservative: 4
Labour: 3
No2EU: 1
Liberal-Democrats: Nil

[Hifly]

Did a little poll at school today (this election has generated a bizarre amount of interest - probably because its the first in which most of us will be voting). These were the results:

Green: 5
UKIP: 5 (including me)
Conservative: 4
Labour: 3
No2EU: 1
Liberal-Democrats: Nil

Someone knew what "No2EU" was?!?!

[YL]

YouGov's final poll for the UK says UKIP 27, Lab 26, Con 22, Green 10, LD 9.  They also have a seat projection, which is "Con 14-17, Lab 21-25, LD 2-3, UKIP 21-23, Green 3-6".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Essentially a tie. Which is certainly a very plausible outcome, although there are others. Would be quite the under-the-radar success for the Greens, either way.

[Hash]

Remember guys, the FN is a new party. They're really not racists, just defending our independence!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10847344/Jean-Marie-Le-Pen-Ebola-epidemic-would-solve-immigration-problems.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Essentially a tie. Which is certainly a very plausible outcome, although there are others. Would be quite the under-the-radar success for the Greens, either way.

Opinium has it at 32-25-21-6-6... so basically, we won't know until Sunday

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, no. None of the polling companies really know what they're measuring for anyway.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The top parties according to the most recent polls in each country.  If I couldn't find polls for the EU election, I used polls for the country's next national election.  If I couldn't find that either, I used the results of the most recent national election.



Blue: EPP
Red: S&D
Yellow: ALDE
Green: Greens
Dark red: EUL
Purple: EFD
Gray: EAF

[Tender Branson]

Blagohair:

Romania is coloured the wrong way, the Socialists there are way ahead in the polls.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Blagohair:

Romania is coloured the wrong way, the Socialists there are way ahead in the polls.

Thanks, I couldn't find any polls for Romania.

[YL]

I didn't vote UKIP...

As previously mentioned, at the top of the ballot paper the first option was "An Independence From Europe - UK Independence Now", so possibly some other people who were intending to didn't either.

I suspect early turnout will have been particularly slow here as there was torrential rain at 7am.

[Phony Moderate]

It's only an internal but YouGov has UKIP on 13% in Scotland with Labour ahead of the SNP, and given that the sample size was much higher it might not be totally worthless.

[YL]

A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.