2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Gass3268]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

[Gass3268]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

Did you ever end up finishing this? I'd like to see the ranking you came up with.

Also I'm feeling pretty confident about HD-67 flipping this November based on what I've seen from the Democratic candidate's campaign so far.

I was going to wait for the primaries and the most recent fundraising update. I'll look into that when I get home tonight.

[Gass3268]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

Did you ever end up finishing this? I'd like to see the ranking you came up with.

Also I'm feeling pretty confident about HD-67 flipping this November based on what I've seen from the Democratic candidate's campaign so far.

I was going to wait for the primaries and the most recent fundraising update. I'll look into that when I get home tonight.

Worked on the data last night. Still trying to work on a formula that would make sense.

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

[Gass3268]

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

Harrisonburg is a college town that attracts upscale suburbanites from across the state and New Jersey for some reason as well.

And fair legislative maps are a long way to go, so we'll see down the road.

Got to win at least one State Senate seat in 2019.

[Gass3268]

DDHQ's final map:

[Gass3268]

Turpin just needs to win (she's up by 2%) and Dems win the HoD

Boy he/she/they bout to do it

[Gass3268]

DDHQ has called it for at least a tie!

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[Gass3268]

An important note about recalls from our buddy Ben Tribbett:

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Holy poop, maybe huge:

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[Gass3268]

Holy poop, maybe huge:

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LOL

No word on what way they were wrongly assigned, but I'd have to imagine if this is news it's the Democrat who got shortchanged.

[Gass3268]

Now Republican tears:

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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Are we sure that these are all Democrats' votes?

But I was told it was always Democrats who steal close elections.

ACORN!

Look, how about we all just admit that both sides do it and move on?

Sounds like we might be getting redo election here, just too much of a screw up.

[Gass3268]

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Are we sure that these are all Democrats' votes?

But I was told it was always Democrats who steal close elections.

ACORN!

Look, how about we all just admit that both sides do it and move on?

Sounds like we might be getting redo election here, just too much of a screw up.

Why should there be a redo election? I mean, even if all of these ballots were for "democrats", the republican would still leadby 1

Agreed. It should only be a redo if the number of misplaced ballots exceeds the margin. But from the looks of the tweet chain, it does appear like there might be more misplaced ballots.

83 misplaced ballots > 82 vote margin

Also, I don't think they could just switch the votes over to the other district because people vote for candidates, not parties.

Also an interesting note brought forward by our buddy Ben Tribbett:

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[Gass3268]

Even a temporary Democratic majority and the possibility of a turncoat state Senate Republican provides for some interesting possibilities, legislation-wise. The VAGOP's viability at this point fully rests on them never letting the entire state government fall into Democrats' hands for even a few hours.

Correct, a special election in progress with HD94 flipping would result in the Democrats getting able to elect the Speaker, which wouldn't change even if a Republican won in HD-28. Only thing that would change is they would have to split committee chairs.

There are so many structural things I would love to change with Virginia, but I think if Democrats ever get total control, they should expand the size of the legislature to 101 to better prevent these tied situations.

[Gass3268]

A bunch of Democrats trying to be populist heroes called for the new tolls on I-66 to be suspended.

Horrible. Congestion pricing is the way I-66 traffic gets better. Sad to see Democrats pander to people who work in D.C. but are too pretentious to take the Metro. I'm deeply disappointed in my Delegate-elect. Wulfric mode: I'll have revoke my endorsement of Jennifer Wexton until she stops these shenanigans.

40$ fees are utterly ridiculous

This. Though personally I think that the carpool lanes should be brought back. Or, test a system in which tolls apply but only to single drivers (this has several ways in which it could go wrong, i.e. "how to check number of people efficiently", but...it could work).

Also if we're going to talk about sub-optimal transportation policy, let's talk about the express lanes on 495. When I lived in VA I would leave at the ass crack of dawn and still get conjested traffic because of the bottleneck at American Leigon.

There needs to be another bridge across the river between MoCo and Fairfax.

[Gass3268]

It's getting close in HD94:

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[Gass3268]

Yeah, I'm now seeing 2 or 4 depending on the challenged ballots.

[Gass3268]

I'm guessing Simmons wins by 1.

[Gass3268]

Now tied without counting two contested Simmons votes.

Word is the GOP lawyers are starting to pace in the room.

[Gass3268]

Those last few precincts were great for Simonds.

[Gass3268]

Can the Lt Gov break a 50-50 tie?

Not in the House of Delegates, only the Senate.