2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[heatcharger]

Normally these state-specific threads attract little traffic, but it seems people are interested in how close Democrats will make the HoD in Virginia this year, so I made this. I'll try to update this thread, but no promises. Anyways, Republicans and Democrats hold 66 and 34 seats, respectively.

I decided to make a list of vulnerable R-held seats:

District	Incumbent?	2013 HD	2015 HD	2012 Pres	2013 Gov	2016 Pres	Region
HD-02	No	D 50-49	R 50-49	D 59-40	D 53-42	D 58-37	NoVA Exurbs
HD-10	Yes	R 62-38	R 57-43	R 51-47	R 49-46	D 50-44	NoVA Exurbs
HD-12	Yes	R 52-47	R 58-42	D 51-47	D 48-42	D 48-45	Blacksburg
HD-13	Yes	R 51-49	R 56-44	D 55-44	D 48-47	D 55-40	NoVA
HD-21	Yes	R 54-45	R 57-43	D 52-47	D 49-45	D 49-45	Norfolk-Virginia Beach
HD-28	No	R 91-0	R 60-40	D 49-49	R 49-45	R 48-47	NoVA/Fredricksburg
HD-31	Yes	R 54-45	R 57-43	D 53-46	D 49-46	D 53-42	NoVA Exurbs
HD-32	Yes	R 51-49	R 53-47	D 52-47	D 51-44	D 58-37	NoVA
HD-40	Yes	R 60-40	R 65-35	R 51-48	R 51-44	D 53-42	NoVA
HD-42	No	R 60-40	R 63-37	D 53-46	D 51-44	D 59-36	NoVA
HD-50	Yes	R 55-45	R 59-41	D 54-46	R 48-48	D 54-40	NoVA
HD-51	Yes	R 54-46	R 100-0	D 51-47	R 48-47	D 52-43	NoVA (debatable)
HD-67	Yes	R 54-45	R 100-0	D 54-45	D 52-43	D 60-34	NoVA
HD-68	Yes	R 63-37	R 61-37	R 55-44	R 44-43	D 52-41	Richmond Suburbs
HD-72	No	R 93-0	R 100-0	R 54-45	R 47-42	D 49-44	Richmond Suburbs
HD-73	Yes	R 94-0	R 100-0	R 52-46	R 47-42	D 51-43	Richmond Suburbs
HD-84	Yes	R 57-42	R 100-0	R 49-49	R 47-47	R 49-45	Norfolk-Virginia Beach
HD-85	Yes*	R 56-43	R 100-0	R 49-49	R 48-46	R 47-46	Norfolk-Virginia Beach
HD-94	Yes	R 51-49	R 57-42	D 52-47	D 48-45	D 50-44	Newport News
HD-100	Yes**	D 71-29	R 58-42	D 55-44	D 48-45	D 49-47	Eastern Shore

*Scott Taylor's old seat, special election held January 2017, R 53-47 result

**Democratic incumbent ran for Northam's old State Senate seat in 2014

So yeah, here are 17 Clinton-GOP districts in addition to 3 Trump-GOP districts I think could be competitive under the right conditions.

[windjammer]

Good idea , thank you!

To be honest, I initially expected something like 55-45 for the Pubs, but I'm going to be bold and saying something more like 52-48 for the Pubs instead. I mean, you Hillary won 48 seats by more than 5 points (51 total), so I suppose it is possible.

[heatcharger]

Good idea , thank you!

To be honest, I initially expected something like 55-45 for the Pubs, but I'm going to be bold and saying something more like 52-48 for the Pubs instead. I mean, you Hillary won 48 seats by more than 5 points (51 total), so I suppose it is possible.

I think who's at the top of the ticket will matter. I have this theory that if Perriello is the Democratic candidate, people, especially in NoVA, will want to "place a check" on him by voting for Republicans downballot, and I've seen it happen many times, including with Comstock last year. I don't think Northam evokes the same fear of "tax and spend" liberal policies, so they'd be more comfortable voting for a Democratic House candidate.

[Gass3268]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

[heatcharger]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

How are you going to calculate this by district? PVI? I think windjammer has those by legislative districts as I recall. In any case, I'm interested to see what you have.

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/transgender-candidate-far-outpaces-incumbent-va-delegate-in-fundraising-reports-show/2017/07/18/57356d30-6bb3-11e7-b9e2-2056e768a7e5_story.html

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Considering her fundraising success and that this is a district Clinton won pretty comfortably in, she might just have a chance at ousting this guy.

[heatcharger]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

Did you ever end up finishing this? I'd like to see the ranking you came up with.

Also I'm feeling pretty confident about HD-67 flipping this November based on what I've seen from the Democratic candidate's campaign so far.

[Gass3268]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

Did you ever end up finishing this? I'd like to see the ranking you came up with.

Also I'm feeling pretty confident about HD-67 flipping this November based on what I've seen from the Democratic candidate's campaign so far.

I was going to wait for the primaries and the most recent fundraising update. I'll look into that when I get home tonight.

[KingSweden]

Right now I'm guessing D+10 in HoD. Not enough, but a good night

[Gass3268]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

Did you ever end up finishing this? I'd like to see the ranking you came up with.

Also I'm feeling pretty confident about HD-67 flipping this November based on what I've seen from the Democratic candidate's campaign so far.

I was going to wait for the primaries and the most recent fundraising update. I'll look into that when I get home tonight.

Worked on the data last night. Still trying to work on a formula that would make sense.

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

[heatcharger]

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

Harrisonburg is a college town that attracts upscale suburbanites from across the state and New Jersey for some reason as well.

And fair legislative maps are a long way to go, so we'll see down the road.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

Harrisonburg is a college town that attracts upscale suburbanites from across the state and New Jersey for some reason as well.

And fair legislative maps are a long way to go, so we'll see down the road.

Harrisonburg is kind of becoming the "northern Roanoke". The only difference is that Harrisonburg's suburbs behave more like NoVa.

[Gass3268]

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

Harrisonburg is a college town that attracts upscale suburbanites from across the state and New Jersey for some reason as well.

And fair legislative maps are a long way to go, so we'll see down the road.

Got to win at least one State Senate seat in 2019.

[Virginiá]

Got to win at least one State Senate seat in 2019.

I'll lose my mind if Democrats can't win back the state Senate in 2019. Assuming they hold the Lt Gov office, we're only talking about one seat. Ideally, if Trump is still this unpopular in 2019, Democrats should have a reasonable shot at upwards of 3 or more seats. 2019 will be a very low turnout affair, and that is the kind of election where Democrats can really dominate under Trump.

[windjammer]

A very interesting article

[windjammer]

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[KingSweden]

Still thinking 6-9 gains in the HoD

[windjammer]

Personally, I think that will be more around 45 seats or maybe a bit more.

Republicans held so many seats because of higher republican turnout, that won't be the case anymore.

Truly the elections I'm the most interested in!

[KingSweden]

Personally, I think that will be more around 45 seats or maybe a bit more.

Republicans held so many seats because of higher republican turnout, that won't be the case anymore.

Truly the elections I'm the most interested in!

11 seats would be a monster night for Democrats. Realistic, but probably a tad optimistic. Not sure I believe Northam is leading by enough to power a double-digit gain.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd say six seats is the over/under at this point.  Less than six would be pretty disappointing for Dems.

[heatcharger]

My ratings:

Likely D pickups: 2,  42
Lean D pickups: 31, 32, 67
Pure tossups: 12, 13, 21, 51
Lean R holds: 10, 72
Likely R holds: 40, 50, 68, 85, 94

I was actually just in HD-12 to see Tim Kaine stump for Chris Hurst, who I think is a very solid candidate as a 30 year-old with a heartbreaking background. I think that one flips if Blacksburg college turnout is where it needs to be, although that's not very reliable, so that's why I think it's a tossup. HD-13 and HD-51 are Prince William County seats that'll flip if Northam's winning the county by 10-15. HD-21 requires strong African-American turnout in VA Beach, and I don't really have a good read on whether that will come to fruition. The early vote is completely meaningless to me.

As for my home district of HD-67, LeMunyon is a very strong incumbent Republican who can survive a decent sized Democratic wave, but Delaney has proven to be a good candidate and fundraised well, so I think she'll win by a small but decisive margin.

Other districts still have a strong Republican DNA, so those don't go down unless Tuesday is a big blue wave. Also HD-50 has a weak Democratic candidate which is why I think it doesn't flip even if it was a big time Clinton district.

My prediction is D+8.

[KingSweden]

My ratings:

Likely D pickups: 2,  42
Lean D pickups: 31, 32, 67
Pure tossups: 12, 13, 21, 51
Lean R holds: 10, 72
Likely R holds: 40, 50, 68, 85, 94

I was actually just in HD-12 to see Tim Kaine stump for Chris Hurst, who I think is a very solid candidate as a 30 year-old with a heartbreaking background. I think that one flips if Blacksburg college turnout is where it needs to be, although that's not very reliable, so that's why I think it's a tossup. HD-13 and HD-51 are Prince William County seats that'll flip if Northam's winning the county by 10-15. HD-21 requires strong African-American turnout in VA Beach, and I don't really have a good read on whether that will come to fruition. The early vote is completely meaningless to me.

As for my home district of HD-67, LeMunyon is a very strong incumbent Republican who can survive a decent sized Democratic wave, but Delaney has proven to be a good candidate and fundraised well, so I think she'll win by a small but decisive margin.

Other districts still have a strong Republican DNA, so those don't go down unless Tuesday is a big blue wave. Also HD-50 has a weak Democratic candidate which is why I think it doesn't flip even if it was a big time Clinton district.

My prediction is D+8.

Thank you for your analysis! Always helpful to get a local perspective

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ's HoD Map. Cook and Sabato have articles out earlier, however they are older (early/mid October) so they lack the accuracy of DDHQ.

Their projections are:

Safe D Gain: 42
Likely D Gain/Hold: 2, 67, 87*
Lean D Gain/Hold: 13, 31, 32, 93*
Tilt D Gain: 51, 72
Tossups: 10, 12, 21, 85, 94, 100
Tilt R Hold: N/A
Lean R Hold: 27, 33, 40, 50, 68, 73
Likely R Hold: 26, 62

* = D Incumbents

This arguably points to a D gain of anywhere from 9 - 11, which is a rather smashing result. One of the things that has been constant throughout this race was the large D lead in the HoD ballot despite the variety of polls. Even if the Race ends up as a nail-bitter, or Gillespie wins, I have no doubt Dems are going to make strides in their seat numbers.

My ratings:

Likely D pickups: 2,  42
Lean D pickups: 31, 32, 67
Pure tossups: 12, 13, 21, 51
Lean R holds: 10, 72
Likely R holds: 40, 50, 68, 85, 94

Can I get your take on HD 100, since you haven't posted it here. The seat has been competitive all season, sitting on the swingy eastern shore. It is the one seat that I feel confident DDHQ has misrated, largely because the Incumbent raised 5K last month and spent less then 10K. Those are the moves of a person who already knows his goose is cooked (Northam coattails on the Eastern Shore?), or is expected a walk in the park.

[heatcharger]

Can I get your take on HD 100, since you haven't posted it here. The seat has been competitive all season, sitting on the swingy eastern shore. It is the one seat that I feel confident DDHQ has misrated, largely because the Incumbent raised 5K last month and spent less then 10K. Those are the moves of a person who already knows his goose is cooked (Northam coattails on the Eastern Shore?), or is expected a walk in the park.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that one. Northam will perform well on the Eastern Shore, but I'm skeptical he's gonna have significant coattails. Also the same Democratic candidate outspent the incumbent R in 2015, but the R still won by 16 points. If it were an open seat I'd say it's a tossup, but since it's not, I'm gonna say it's a Lean R hold.

[Virginiá]

Obligatory DailyKos post on HoD seats from a liberal perspective:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/5/1711514/-Key-precincts-will-tell-the-tale-is-it-an-average-night-for-Virginia-House-Dems-or-a-great-night