2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ's HoD Map. Cook and Sabato have articles out earlier, however they are older (early/mid October) so they lack the accuracy of DDHQ.

Their projections are:

Safe D Gain: 42
Likely D Gain/Hold: 2, 67, 87*
Lean D Gain/Hold: 13, 31, 32, 93*
Tilt D Gain: 51, 72
Tossups: 10, 12, 21, 85, 94, 100
Tilt R Hold: N/A
Lean R Hold: 27, 33, 40, 50, 68, 73
Likely R Hold: 26, 62

* = D Incumbents

This arguably points to a D gain of anywhere from 9 - 11, which is a rather smashing result. One of the things that has been constant throughout this race was the large D lead in the HoD ballot despite the variety of polls. Even if the Race ends up as a nail-bitter, or Gillespie wins, I have no doubt Dems are going to make strides in their seat numbers.

My ratings:

Likely D pickups: 2,  42
Lean D pickups: 31, 32, 67
Pure tossups: 12, 13, 21, 51
Lean R holds: 10, 72
Likely R holds: 40, 50, 68, 85, 94

Can I get your take on HD 100, since you haven't posted it here. The seat has been competitive all season, sitting on the swingy eastern shore. It is the one seat that I feel confident DDHQ has misrated, largely because the Incumbent raised 5K last month and spent less then 10K. Those are the moves of a person who already knows his goose is cooked (Northam coattails on the Eastern Shore?), or is expected a walk in the park.

[Oryxslayer]

Obligatory DailyKos post on HoD seats from a liberal perspective:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/5/1711514/-Key-precincts-will-tell-the-tale-is-it-an-average-night-for-Virginia-House-Dems-or-a-great-night

Strange how DDHQ predicts a sweep for Dems (9+), while Kos predicts 6-7. Could easily be expectation setting - or perhaps DDHQ is putting to much basis in the topline results. That said, after following DDHQ's coverage for a while, they clearly know what they are talking about on campaign infrastructure, ads, and money.

I think the single biggest difference between DDHQ and Cook (old, but they predicted around 8 seat gains) and Kos/Sabato/Heatchanger here is on the demographics and how they will vote. The former expects the generic HoD ballot to be key in the end result. In this scenario, democrats make up a larger share of the electorate then in the past, and many Gillespie voterswill cast a vote for a D HoD candidate simply due to the negative approval of the activities in Washington. There is some truth to this - when we actually had generic HoD polls, Democrats were outperforming the Topline races sometimes by significant amounts. People also know/care about their HoD rep less then the gov, and are more inclined to cast a partisan ballot. Conversely, the opposite opinion asserts that the natural anti-dem lean of these off elections is going to be more of a factor. Incumbency of Republican reps is key, and Democrats won't see as many gains as hoped for. The tightening of the Gov race spells a harsher reality for HoD candidates, as the republican history of many of these districts will begin to assert themselves.

Overall, where and how the dems gain seats in two days is going to important in 2018. How willing are people to split a ticket, how well dems will do in R gerryed suburban seats, and how much off-year enthusiasm for dems is there. For example, if Gillespie ends up willing on Tuesday, yet Democrats gain 5-7 seats in the HoD, that can be seen as important for the future. Or if Northam wins and dems only gain 6 seats, that will also be important for house candidates next year.

Whatever happens, I hope to try and cover the 24 HoD  seats (the widest map) DDHQ rated as competitive on Tuesday in this thread.

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ's final map:

SNIP

Saving people time, there arn't any changes from their last map - its just easier to read.

[Oryxslayer]

So they're predicting D+8 outright, with another 6 tossups (5 of which were won by Clinton) and another 4 Clinton/R seats at lean R. Seems plausible if Northam is winning by 5+

Probably 9 to 11 gains taking the probabilistic outlook. And yes, it is a rather large lead for team Dem - larger than any other projection. While dems have consistently been up by a larger amount in the HoD ballot then in any of the topline races, incumbency may ruin their hopes. We shall see tomorrow...

For the record I predict a D + 9 result.

[Oryxslayer]

40 minutes to go...

[Oryxslayer]

All the uncontested races have officially been called.

[Oryxslayer]

Dems ahead in HD 27  57-43, with 23% in.
Dems ahead in HD 50 56 - 44 with 13% in.
Dems ahead in HD 62 52 - 48 witn 19% in.

Other races haven't yet passed 10%.

[Oryxslayer]

         D   R
HD 2: 80-20, 22%
HD 13: 58-42, 35%
HD 27: 56-44, 45%
HD 31: 53 - 45, 23%
HD 50: 54 - 46 31%
HD 51: 45 - 55, 18%
HD 62: 51 - 49, 23%
HD 68: 44-56, 24%
HD 72: 57-43, 18
HD 73: 53-48, 22%
HD 87: 44-56, 7%
HD 93: 61-39, 32%

[Oryxslayer]

Update
         D   R     precincts
HD 21: 55-45, 20%
HD 27: 49-51, 55%
HD 31: 49-49, 27%
HD 32: 57-43, 50%
HD 33: 46-54, 26%
HD 50: 53-47, 50%
HD 62: 56-44, 38%
HD 68: 46-54, 31%
HD 85: 50-50, 22%
HD 87: 60-40, 45%

[Oryxslayer]

Full list of swing areas

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 69-31, 57%
10: 58-42, 37%
12: 55-45, 17%
13: 53-47, 85%
21: 55-45, 20%
26: 29-76, 4%
27: 67-33, 64%
31: 54-45, 65%
32: 59-41, 88%
33: 47-53, 42%
40: 43-57, 22%
50: 58-42, 81%
51: 52-48, 68%
62: 55-45, 42%
67:55-45, 14%
68: 46-54, 38%
72: 51-49, 50%
73: 50-50, 43%
85: 49-51, 28%
87: 61-39, 62%
93: 58-41, 44%
94: 47-51, 21%
100: 19-81, 6%

[Oryxslayer]

Full list of swing areas

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 64-36, 74%
10: 55-45, 57%
12: 55-45, 57%
13: 55-45, 90%
21: 51-49, 45%
26: 60-40, 42%
27: 95-5, 64%
31: 54-45, 69%
32: 59-41, 88%
33: 47-53, 48%
40: 47-53, 39%
42: 55-45, 5%
50: 55-45, 94% Called by NYT for D
51: 54-46, 82%
62: 53-47, 54%
67:55-45, 14%
68: 48-52, 55%
72: 52-48, 61%
73: 50-50, 57%
85: 49-51, 67%
87: 62-38, 76%
93: 58-42, 48%
94: 47-51, 29%
100: 51-49, 28%

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 55-45, 60%
12: 59-41, 34%
13: 55-45, 95% Called D + 2
21: 54-46, 65%
26: 60-40, 42%
27: 96-4, 64% Huh
31: 57-42, 88%
32: 59-41, 88% Called D + 3
33: 46-54, 61%
40: 46-54, 48%
42: 56-44, 32%
50: 55-45, 94% Called D + 4
51: 53-47, 95% Called D + 5
62: 49-51, 85%
67:59-42, 19%
68: 47-53, 66%
72: 52-48, 86%
73: 52-48, 96%
85: 51-49, 44%
87: 62-38, 76%
93: 58-42, 48%
94: 48-59, 50%
100: 46-54, 66%

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 55-45, 80%
12: 62-38, 57%
13: 55-45, 95% Called D + 2
21: 54-46, 40%
26: 60-40, 42%
27: 96-4, 91%
31: 55-43, 92% Called D + 3
32: 59-41, 96% Called D + 4
33: 46-54, 74%
40: 48-52, 57%
42: 62-38, 53%
50: 55-45, 94% Called D + 5
51: 53-47, 95% Called D + 6
62: 48-52, 92%
67:58-42, 48%
68: 50-50, 72%
72: 52-48, 89%
73: 52-48, 96%
85: 51-49, 72%
87: 63-37, 90% Called D Hold
93: 57-43, 64%
94: 48-49, 54%
100: 47-53, 69%

[Oryxslayer]

As wulfric and 538 have said in the main thread, projects put dems only 6 away from control of the HoD. This is a wave.

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 52-48, 97%
12: 63-37, 60%
13: 55-45, 95% Called D + 2
21: 54-47, 40%
26: 56-44, 54%
27: 96-4, 91%
31: 54-45, 96% Called D + 3
32: 59-41, 96% Called D + 4
33: 45-56, 94%
40: 51-49, 78%
42: 62-38, 74% Called D + 5
50: 55-45, 94% Called D + 6
51: 53-47, 95% Called D + 7
62: 48-52, 92%
67:59-41, 67%
68: 50-50, 83%
72: 52-48, 89%
73: 52-48, 96%
85: 51-49, 72%
87: 63-37, 90% Called D Hold
93: 60-40, 88%
94: 50-48, 79%
100: 46-54, 81%

Dems are probably on tract to tie/take the chamber, or at least come close enough to take it in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

Any idea what's going on in the 27th?

I just checked the SOS - its 50-50 there with the Rep ahead with one precinct left.

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 52-48, 97% D + 2
12: 54-46, 91% D +3
13: 55-45, 95% D + 4
21: 54-47, 40%
26: 47-53, 96% Called R Hold
27: 50-50, 95% (finally got correct returns)
31: 54-45, 96% D + 5
32: 59-41, 96% D + 6
33: 45-55, 97% Called R Hold
40: 50-50, 87%
42: 61-39, 84% D + 7
50: 55-45, 94% D + 8
51: 53-47, 95% D + 9
62: 48-52, 92%
67:58-42, 90% D + 10
68: 51-49, 86%
72: 52-48, 89%
73: 52-48, 96%
85: 51-49, 72%
87: 63-37, 90% Called D Hold
93: 60-40, 96%
94: 49-49, 96%
100: 47-53, 97% Called R Hold

Dems are probably on tract to tie/take the chamber, or at least come close enough to take it in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

HD 93 was called D Hold.

[Oryxslayer]

HD 72 is the 11th D gain called by NYT.

[Oryxslayer]

HD 28 and 94 are prectical ties with the R ahead. Likely recounts. HD 28 was an open seat, yet the dem got so little attention, it wasn't on the map.

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 52-48, 100% D + 2
12: 54-46, 94% D +3
13: 55-45, 95% D + 4
21: 53-47, 97%
26: 47-53, 96% Called R Hold
27: 50-50, 95%
28* out of left field: 50-50, goes to probable recount
31: 54-45, 96% D + 5
32: 59-42, 100% D + 6
33: 45-55, 100% Called R Hold
40: 50-50, 87%
42: 61-39, 89% D + 7
50: 55-45, 94% D + 8
51: 53-47, 95% D + 9
62: 48-52, 92%
67:58-42, 95% D + 10
68: 51-49, 93%
72: 53-47, 96% D + 11
73: 52-48, 96% D + 12
84* new addition: 50-50, 89%
85: 51-49, 94%
87: 62-38, 93% Called D Hold
93: 60-40, 100% Called D Hold
94: 49-49, 100%, goes to probable recount
100: 48-52, 100% Called R Hold

Dems are probably on tract to tie/take the chamber, or at least come close enough to take it in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

The 21st becomes NYT's 13th called D gain.

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 52-48, 100% D + 2
12: 54-46, 94% D +3
13: 55-45, 95% D + 4
21: 53-47, 95% D + 5
26: 47-53, 96% Called R Hold
27: 50-50, 95%
28* out of left field: 50-50, goes to probable recount
31: 54-45, 96% D + 6
32: 59-42, 100% D + 7
33: 45-55, 100% Called R Hold
40: 50-50, 96%
42: 61-39, 95% D + 8
50: 55-45, 94% D + 9
51: 53-47, 95% D + 10
62: 48-52, 92%
67:58-42, 95% D + 11
68: 51-49, 97%
72: 53-47, 100% D + 12
73: 51-49, 100% D + 13
84* new addition: 50-50, 89%
85: 51-49, 94%
87: 62-38, 93% Called D Hold
93: 60-40, 100% Called D Hold
94: 49-49, 100%, goes to probable recount
100: 48-52, 100% Called R Hold

Dems are probably on tract to tie the chamber, or at least come close enough to take it in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

Someone wanted a HoD map in the other thread, so I created one. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.



Basemap was create by Thande on Alternate History Forum.

[Oryxslayer]

Districts 27 and 40 - the white one is NOVA and the southern white one in the Richmond Suburbs are heading to recounts. This puts four districts on route to recounts, the previous 2 and  28 + 94.

84 and 85 are the only outstanding races -  located in Virginia Beach. Both could avoid a recount, but 85 could head there. Dems are currently ahead in 85, republicans in 84.