2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Oryxslayer]

HD 28 and 94 are prectical ties with the R ahead. Likely recounts. HD 28 was an open seat, yet the dem got so little attention, it wasn't on the map.

[The Other Castro]

It's looking pretty possible that we get a 50-50 split in the House, which would be very interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 52-48, 100% D + 2
12: 54-46, 94% D +3
13: 55-45, 95% D + 4
21: 53-47, 97%
26: 47-53, 96% Called R Hold
27: 50-50, 95%
28* out of left field: 50-50, goes to probable recount
31: 54-45, 96% D + 5
32: 59-42, 100% D + 6
33: 45-55, 100% Called R Hold
40: 50-50, 87%
42: 61-39, 89% D + 7
50: 55-45, 94% D + 8
51: 53-47, 95% D + 9
62: 48-52, 92%
67:58-42, 95% D + 10
68: 51-49, 93%
72: 53-47, 96% D + 11
73: 52-48, 96% D + 12
84* new addition: 50-50, 89%
85: 51-49, 94%
87: 62-38, 93% Called D Hold
93: 60-40, 100% Called D Hold
94: 49-49, 100%, goes to probable recount
100: 48-52, 100% Called R Hold

Dems are probably on tract to tie/take the chamber, or at least come close enough to take it in 2019.

[Kamala]

Good. Republicans can't even lose one more seat - have to have every seat go their way. I doubt it will.

[Strudelcutie4427]

If this is an indication of next year, I'm gonna go stock up on pool chlorine to gas myself with

[Oryxslayer]

The 21st becomes NYT's 13th called D gain.

[Cashew]

It's looking pretty possible that we get a 50-50 split in the House, which would be very interesting.

When the Senate was evenly split Phillip Puckett of southwest Virginia staged a suspicious resignation giving Republicans a 21-19 majority. I wonder if this will repeat itself in the House. How many >5% district dems will there be after the final results?

[Oryxslayer]

Update
seat  D  R  precincts
02: 63-37, 96% Called D + 1 by NYT
10: 52-48, 100% D + 2
12: 54-46, 94% D +3
13: 55-45, 95% D + 4
21: 53-47, 95% D + 5
26: 47-53, 96% Called R Hold
27: 50-50, 95%
28* out of left field: 50-50, goes to probable recount
31: 54-45, 96% D + 6
32: 59-42, 100% D + 7
33: 45-55, 100% Called R Hold
40: 50-50, 96%
42: 61-39, 95% D + 8
50: 55-45, 94% D + 9
51: 53-47, 95% D + 10
62: 48-52, 92%
67:58-42, 95% D + 11
68: 51-49, 97%
72: 53-47, 100% D + 12
73: 51-49, 100% D + 13
84* new addition: 50-50, 89%
85: 51-49, 94%
87: 62-38, 93% Called D Hold
93: 60-40, 100% Called D Hold
94: 49-49, 100%, goes to probable recount
100: 48-52, 100% Called R Hold

Dems are probably on tract to tie the chamber, or at least come close enough to take it in 2019.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Fun fact: Democrats haven't picked up this many Republican seats in the VA House of Delegates since... 1899.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Holy mother of God I was expecting a six or seven point win. This is massive. There's no way we get to 50-50 tonight, and it won't matter because we're at a disadvantage in the Senate until 2019 at the earliest, but man am I excited.

Because I'm a Democrat, a small part of me is refusing to enjoy this because I'm conditioned to think that any big gains will be wiped out in the next election (see: 2006/2008, 2012) so who knows how many of these swing-D districts will stay D. But a lot of them are suburban districts, a demographic that's been leaning hard blue in the last decade so they could have a good D-lean if trends continue.

Damn this is awesome.

[Oryxslayer]

Someone wanted a HoD map in the other thread, so I created one. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.



Basemap was create by Thande on Alternate History Forum.

[GlobeSoc]

What's the popular vote in the HoD?

[Tintrlvr]

What's the popular vote in the HoD?

Impossible to calculate in a useful way because so many seats were uncontested so are reporting zero votes: 10 Republican-held seats and 23 Democratic-held seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Districts 27 and 40 - the white one is NOVA and the southern white one in the Richmond Suburbs are heading to recounts. This puts four districts on route to recounts, the previous 2 and  28 + 94.

84 and 85 are the only outstanding races -  located in Virginia Beach. Both could avoid a recount, but 85 could head there. Dems are currently ahead in 85, republicans in 84.

[Oryxslayer]

68, the other richmond suburb seat is also heading to a recount - though dems have the advantage here initially.

[Oryxslayer]

Turpin just needs to win (she's up by 2%) and Dems win the HoD

There will however be recounts, so seats may change. But yes, a victory here right now  would give dems 16 total gains and tie the chamber.

[Gass3268]

Turpin just needs to win (she's up by 2%) and Dems win the HoD

Boy he/she/they bout to do it

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Someone wanted a HoD map in the other thread, so I created one. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.

That's a lot of light blue overlapping with the 10th Congressional District (Barbara Comstock's)

[Gass3268]

DDHQ has called it for at least a tie!

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[Vega]

... And what happens if there is a tie? Just power reconciliation, divvying committee chairmanships, etc.?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^

Apparently Fairfax breaks it.

Also, the DDHQ thing assumes that nothing changes in recounts, a dangerous assumption. Two apparent dem wins, 40 and 68, will definitely go to recounts, and 85 might.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The VA public access project (VPAP) is calling it 51-49 for Republicans (divying up recounts, which of course are subject to change), but looking at this list I count SIX Republican-held seats where Democrats got over 54% of the vote. That's SIX Republican held seats where a Democratic challenger outperformed Northam. That's crazy.

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/house/

[Skill and Chance]

^

Apparently Fairfax breaks it.

Also, the DDHQ thing assumes that nothing changes in recounts, a dangerous assumption. Two apparent dem wins, 40 and 68, will definitely go to recounts, and 85 might.

Fairfax can't tiebreak in the HoD.  He can only do that in the State Senate.  They would have to make a power sharing deal or get someone to switch parties if it's 50/50.

The most likely to change in a recount by far is Yancey's 12 vote win in HD-94.  That one might actually flip just from provisionals being counted.  Also, the Republican wins in 27 and 28 are closer than the Democratic win in 68.  I think a 51D/49R might actually be the most likely outcome.

[Virginiá]

Skill, when do you think the recounts will be completely finished?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm glad to see Danica Roem is trouncing Del. Bob Marshall, with 85% precincts reporting in.  

Can we take a few minutes to appreciate how awesome it is that the first transgender lawmaker in the country got elected tonight, and defeated the most vocal culture-warrior conservative lawmaker in the state to do so? And she wasn't even from a stereotypically progressive place -- Manassas is a small city with a lot of touches of "old Virginia". I worked down there in 2012 for Tim Kaine's campaign and am pretty shocked at how much things have changed in just the past five years. Great, great story.