Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Matty]

Why doesn't the RCP average include any polls from change research? They are no less legit than gravis or traflgar.

[Matty]

Why doesn't the RCP average include any polls from change research? They are no less legit than gravis or traflgar.

Are they the idiots who did a poll in one afternoon?

no, that poll believe it or not is indeed in the rcp average, it was the raycom poll.

[Matty]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

[Matty]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

[Matty]

Will there be any new polls released between now and tuesday?

[Matty]

I posted it on the first page of this thread. The comment about blacks not voting Republican because they are stupid was rather saddening.

Usually the answer I hear from Republicans willing to be even more candid is that it's because the "Democrats give them free sh!t." Sometimes with the n-word throw in there.  Which to me sounds amazingly lacking in self-awareness.

To be fair, let's not act all high and mighty here. You hear the same things said about "dumb poor whites voting GOP because they are stupid" on this board and across the political world.

There is zero political empathy anymore. We assume people vote the way they do for the worst of reasons.

[Matty]

Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

[Matty]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

[Matty]

Does SUSA lean rep? Honestly I consider them a pretty good pollster. Too bad a lot of their clientele are lame local news stations that have them ask about how people feel about Christmas shopping or the crappy potholes downtown.

Holmes, could it be a fox poll? Fox has been pretty friendly for Jones

I don't know. I said everything I heard.

Is this a 100% legit source or could you be being mislead?

[Matty]

Good god, I just read some of the comment section on the predictit page for this race.....what a dumpster fire

[Matty]

Predictit is really reacting to the Fox poll

there has been a 16 cent swing.

Jones all the way to 36

Moore down to 70

[Matty]

So.....outside of fox, where are all the legit, good-brand polling firms for this race?

CNN hasn't polled it, ppp hasn't polled it, opinion saavy hasn't polled, quinipac hasn't polled

[Matty]

Why does it seem like most twitter turnout reports by amateur reporters are from precincts that are more democratic? I feel like we get so many reports out of cities, but rarely are people on twitter at exurban and rural precincts

[Matty]

I'm convinced more than ever that people on the predictit comment page are spreading dubious info in order to help themselves financially with the share prices.

Some unverified twitter account named "evelyn slice" is being spammed all over the predictit comment section saying black turnout is up 70%.

[Matty]

Folks, cool it with the turnout reports. In the words of a great man from New Jersey, “It don’t matter. None of this matters.”

Another reason to "discount turnout reports" is that this is a +30 R state. Even if dem turnout is way up and GOP turnout way down, there is still a huge whole to climb out out.

Imagine if a football team wins the second half 28-0....but went into halftime down 31-0.

[Matty]

I want to know how the heavily Republican counties are on turnout.

Especially rural ones.

That's what is so annoying about twitter on election day. Journalists and others NEVER travel to rural precincts to report. It is annoying.

[Matty]

When do polls close?

7

[Matty]

When do polls close?

7

Eastern or central?

central..sorry for not pointing that out.

[Matty]

Just saw Doug give a quick interview with ABC. He seems VERY confident about tonight. I wonder if they have data that we don't. Maybe some internal polls?

Do you expect a candidate to look like Eeyore on election day?

[Matty]

I have read every election thread on here since 2013, and it seems like turnout reports are favorable for democrats in every single one.

[Matty]

Are there any reports from rural counties?, if their turnout is anywhere close to the larger counties Jones has an impossible path, if it's lower Jones can win this

Zero

[Matty]

Limestone county on pace for 40% turnout

https://t.co/msdK042e8V

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

What makes him think jones will do well in that county?

[Matty]

It seems like everything that Jones needs to win is happening

I'm thinking that too, but I reeeealllly don't want to get my hopes up.

But it's tough, between:

1. This turnout data
2. Jones' confidence
3. Fox's apparent confidence in their poll

How can you make ANY assumptions about turnout data at this point when we have no clue what is happening in 60%+ of the state?

[Matty]

FWIW, predictit seems unimpressed by all the turnout reports on twitter

The prices are virtually the same as they were this morning, with moore actually 1 cent higher