Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Jeppe]

If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).

I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.

[Sestak]

OK. Question.

If Moore wins, and is expelled (which is very possible), who does Ivey appoint? Strange again?

[mcmikk]

It's nice to see Shelby sticking with what he believes in. I imagine that he's been under a lot of pressure to switch back to Moore, but he hasn't done it. It's too bad that he can't just endorse Jones, but at least he won't support Moore.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).

I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.

And quite frankly, an added decade of gentrification and white movement back into the city should have been an easy Norwood win. Not the same result from a decade ago when AAs were a larger portion of the electorate.

[OneJ]

If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

Possibly, the Alabama Republican voters are probably smarter than given credit for (although that may not say much). Maybe they think that if too many of them write another candidate in, they'll act as major spoilers and that will cause Jones, a f[inks]ing Democrat, to ultimately come out victorious.  Just a thought.

[Holmes]

I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.

[mcmikk]

I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.

He doesn't need to. He has the Magic (R) next to his name. That will help him significantly, considering it's Alabama. Besides, everyone already knows who he is.

[BuckeyeNut]

If I were an Alabama republican, I would write-in Strange. No vote for the (likely) pedo, and no vote for a Democrat. Problem solved.

From the Atlanta mayoral election to the Virginia gubernatorial election and many others across the nation this year, Democratic enthusiasm has been seriously underestimated. I'm not saying I expect Doug Jones to win, but it's still possible folks.

I'll give you Virginia. However, the Atlanta Mayor's race was won by about 700 votes in both 2009, and 2017 (little change there).

I think they meant that Norwood was leading by like 6 points in the last poll but ended up losing to the Democrat.

Exactly what I meant.

I agree with mcmikk that nationalizing the race could well be negative, but the race isn't over till it's over. I doubt Jones wins, but refuse to give up hope.

[Mr. Smith]

I feel like the fact that Moore is not on the campaign trail at all his final week (and barely was before) and that Jones is touring the state and commanding the airwaves and digital ads is underrated. Moore isn't giving people a reason to vote for him.

Maybe, but I've noticed the right largely are happier voting against something than the left are. This allows a bit of ground when it comes to the need to explain what you stand for.

[Holmes]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

[Mr. Smith]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Not voting for Moore might hurt Jones though if the "sane, non-paedo vote" gets split.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

[junior chįmp]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

[Holmes]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

Yes, there are more than two options.

[rob in cal]

  All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I dunno. I'm not saying that the people Moore needs to convince will vote for Jones, but they might not vote for Moore either, and Moore definitely needs them. There are more than two options.

Or just...you know...not show up to vote at all.

Yes, there are more than two options.

I thought you were just referring to the write-ins, my bad.

 All of this could have been avoided had Trump gone all in for Mo Brooks in the primary, probably pushing him over the top to win the nomination.  Brooks is a low immigration advocate, party loyalist type who in hindsight was the safe choice from the beginning for Trump.

You know, it really shows just how much the Republicans have lost their way when you have folks longingly referring to the racist, misogynistic chief defender of a child molester who has spent a good month or so attacking said pedophile’s victims as “the safe choice.”  The fact that Brooks’ staunch support for Roy Moore, a man who under Alabama Law has literally sexually abused multiple people, is not an instant dealbreaker says quite a bit about you and none of it good.  This is one of those rare American elections where one side is objectively unambiguously evil.  This isn’t a case of good people getting caught up in something evil like it was with some of Trump’s supporters.  What this comes down to is whether Alabaman voters think child molestation is unacceptable.  I always try to give folks the benefit of the doubt, but anyone who still supports Roy Moore is simply a disgusting human being who - when push comes to shove - is perfectly willing to give a child molester a free pass out of amoral tribalism.  I won’t dismiss all Alabamans as evil folks if Moore wins, but the win or lose, his supporters are simply horrible people.  

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

[Matty]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

[TheSaint250]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

Don’t confront him it ruins his fragile narrative

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

Don’t confront him it ruins his fragile narrative

It's pretty true. Alabama fails to invest in itself (education, infrastructure, etc.) because they keep voting for the most racist candidate they can find (southern democrats --> republicans). They continually vote in leaders that fail them (Like 3 of the Republicans they've voted in went to jail). It's mostly a pretty terrible state. I would know considering I live 10 minutes away from Alabama and go there somewhat often.

[JA]

UN went to Alabama to investigate the state....concludes it's third world fam:

[Alabama has the worst poverty in the developed world, U.N. official says]

This is what the GOP wants for our whole country. And it is what every single GOP member or supporter is enabling no matter what their motivation.

You do realize Alabama has always been deeply poor, correct?

You do realize that poverty is the result of policy choices, sociocultural factors, and, to an extent, circumstances, yes? The state hasn’t faced embargoes, war, foreign exploitation, or other similar economy draining forces. The rampant poverty in that state is interwoven into its fabric due to it’s history of institutional racism, rampant social and wealth inequality, and particular cultural factors that have been exploited by elites and political figures for their self-enrichment.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones may very well win, but him winning by double digits just isn't possible. Missouri is much more liberal than Alabama.

Sure, no one said he would win by double digits, just that there's a possibility he outperforms the polling average by a lot like Northam or McCaskill.

Yeah, I think Jones winning by 5-6% wouldn't be incredibly surprising given the circumstances here, and the fact that this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone consider that this could go the way of MO in 2012? Polling overall really underestimated McCaskill's margin and underestimated the backlash against Akin.

I think it's possible pollsters are herding towards Moore bc no one wants to be the dumbass who predicted a Dem would win in Alabama if Moore does pull it out (plus the fact that this race seems to have nothing but crap/questionable pollsters). But we shall find out Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with both of you. IMO this is definitely more likely to happen than many people here believe, and Moore is only ahead by 4 in the RCP polling average anyway.

Agreed.  I wouldn't be surprised if Moore ended up winning, but at the same time, I'm still fairly confident Jones will win (as I have been ever since the Washington Post ran its first story about this).