What happens if Colin Powell endorses Obama?

[Likely Voter]

After much speculation the 'will Powell endorse Obama' thing is hitting high gear. Politico speculates Colin Powell will endorse Obama on MTP this sunday.

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14665.html

It seems the GOP are gearing up for it as well by spinning it as just a race thing. Note headline at Fox News:
Hip-Hop-Dancing Colin Powell Fuels Speculation He'll Endorse Obama


So does it help Obama or not?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Joe the plumber will be lost in news the moment Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama

and what is Powell going to point to, Obama's experience?  Is Powell going to disagree with McCain for voting for war when Powell was the one selling it in front of the UN?  Is he going to disagree with McCain's opinion of the surge when Powell believed more troops were needed from the start?

All McCain would have to say in response is:  "Well, Colin Powell and I have seen eye to eye throughout the decades, and I followed Colin Powell's advice and voted for the war in Iraq.  But I am not surprised he is endorsing Senator Obama.  Look, Senator Obama is polling around 95% of the African American vote. African Americans have a right to be proud that Senator Obama is the first African American to win a nomination of a major political party.  And I, as well as all Americans, share their feeling of pride.  But I have policy differences with Senator Obama that transcend the color of one's skin...(goes on to list policy differences)"

[JSojourner]

If Powell endorses Obama --  "Well, you know those people.  They stick together.

If Powell endorses McCain --  "Well, you know those people (military).  They stick together.

Either way, there's a spin.  So no major effect.  Powell may point to Joe Biden as a reason for backing Obama, given Biden's foreign policy gravitas.  But even so -- nice Republicans (most of them) will say it's just one black guy sticking with the other black guy.  Not so nice Republicans (a few of them) will say -- "typical n*gger".

But then what of Democrats?  If he ends up surprising everyone and endorsing McCain, we'll just say "Colin Powell never met a warrior he didn't like" or something equally stupid.

[Eraserhead]

It'll probably help a little.  Whitey loves them some Colin Powell.

[Moooooo]

It will completely halt any momentum McCain may have had.... which McCain really cannot afford.

[Bacon King]

lol, "hip hop dancing"?

[Lief 🗽]

First of all, to anyone that still thinks Fox is fair and balanced, that headline should prove to you that it isn't.

Second, I doubt it has a really big long-term effect on things. All it does is, as Nate Silver pointed out, "run the clock", giving Obama a couple days of media cycle that McCain desperately needs.

[Likely Voter]

I agree on the news cycle thing. I think it gives him half a point in the end. Sure there will be a 'he is just black' thing, but Colin Powell is popular. By the time he resigned his approval rating was over 70%
http://www.pollingreport.com/P.htm#Powell

Back in 1995 he beat Clinton in a poll for President by 10 points. Maybe some of those older voters will remember that?
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EPF/is_n5_v95/ai_17459252

[Stranger in a strange land]

I agree on the news cycle thing. I think it gives him half a point in the end. Sure there will be a 'he is just black' thing, but Colin Powell is popular. By the time he resigned his approval rating was over 70%
http://www.pollingreport.com/P.htm#Powell

Back in 1995 he beat Clinton in a poll for President by 10 points. Maybe some of those older voters will remember that?
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EPF/is_n5_v95/ai_17459252

Powell remains one of the most popular, respected figures in American politics. It would help allay concerns that some moderate Republicans and Independents may have about Obama. Still, we should see, at best, only a small shift. +0.5 at most. The main benefit, as others have pointed out, is that it would give Obama a few days of positive press coverage.

[humder]

 If Powell does endorse Obama, then that means two days of Powell saying 'Obama is the most qualified to be President' being played over and over on the tv. It is not so much that people agree with everything Powell says, it is that McCain will have only 16 days to regain a lead and he can not afford loosing two days of the news cycle to Powell saying nice things about Obama.

[Iosif]

Joe the plumber will be lost in news the moment Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama

and what is Powell going to point to, Obama's experience?  Is Powell going to disagree with McCain for voting for war when Powell was the one selling it in front of the UN?  Is he going to disagree with McCain's opinion of the surge when Powell believed more troops were needed from the start?

All McCain would have to say in response is:  "Well, Colin Powell and I have seen eye to eye throughout the decades, and I followed Colin Powell's advice and voted for the war in Iraq.  But I am not surprised he is endorsing Senator Obama.  Look, Senator Obama is polling around 95% of the African American vote. African Americans have a right to be proud that Senator Obama is the first African American to win a nomination of a major political party.  And I, as well as all Americans, share their feeling of pride.  But I have policy differences with Senator Obama that transcend the color of one's skin...(goes on to list policy differences)"

"Colin Powell just want his brotha for another motha to win."

Yeah, that'll go down well.

Here's an idea, maybe Colin Powell ISN'T endorsing Obama because he's black?

No, that's crazy, you're right. Blacks aren't capable of independent thought. They have to support the negro.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Joe the plumber will be lost in news the moment Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama

and what is Powell going to point to, Obama's experience?  Is Powell going to disagree with McCain for voting for war when Powell was the one selling it in front of the UN?  Is he going to disagree with McCain's opinion of the surge when Powell believed more troops were needed from the start?

All McCain would have to say in response is:  "Well, Colin Powell and I have seen eye to eye throughout the decades, and I followed Colin Powell's advice and voted for the war in Iraq.  But I am not surprised he is endorsing Senator Obama.  Look, Senator Obama is polling around 95% of the African American vote. African Americans have a right to be proud that Senator Obama is the first African American to win a nomination of a major political party.  And I, as well as all Americans, share their feeling of pride.  But I have policy differences with Senator Obama that transcend the color of one's skin...(goes on to list policy differences)"

"Colin Powell just want his brotha for another motha to win."

Yeah, that'll go down well.

Here's an idea, maybe Colin Powell ISN'T endorsing Obama because he's black?

No, that's crazy, you're right. Blacks aren't capable of independent thought. They have to support the negro.

My main point was to drag him through the mud over his 2003 Iraqi WMD presentation before the UN...but I do think it is fair to also allude to race to explain Powell's sudden endorsement of a Democrat, but I would do it tactfully like I did above. 

[ChrisFromNJ]

I guess I might be the only person who doesn't give a damn about Colin Powell, especially after his shameful water carrying for the Bush administration.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It'd be great, but it won't have a major impact on voters; it may be big in the news cycle, though.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I guess I might be the only person who doesn't give a damn about Colin Powell, especially after his shameful water carrying for the Bush administration.

which is exactly why I would mention his 2003 WMD presentation at the UN.  How can he say he disagreed with Bush43 when Powell gave Bush credibility

[perdedor]

I doubt it will make much of a difference. He is just a relic from Bush's first term, not as many people care about Colin Powell as the media and political junkies make it out.

[J. J.]

It might hurt Obama with some supporters.

[Bacon King]

It might hurt Obama with some supporters.

Explain.

[J. J.]

It might hurt Obama with some supporters.

Explain.

Obama was suppose to be against the war.  Powell was one of the people in favor of the war.

It looks like poor Lunar forgot that too:

Question: What impact could the Colin Powell's endorsement have?

It might hurt Obama with some supporters.

[Lief 🗽]

Er... Barack Obama's running mate was in favor of the war. As was a good chunk of the United States of America.

[ChrisFromNJ]

It might hurt Obama with some supporters.

*groan*

This is such a J.J.-esque response.

[Joe Biden 2020]

With only 2 1/2 weeks left?  Not a thing.  If there were still 2 1/2 months, it might have helped Obama just a little, but now that we are nearing the homestretch of the homestretch, nothing will change.  People will just shrug their shoulders and go about their daily lives and stressing about the economic crisis.

[J. J.]

Er... Barack Obama's running mate was in favor of the war. As was a good chunk of the United States of America.

Ah, Powell was one of the people strongly associated with it.

[J. J.]

It might hurt Obama with some supporters.

*groan*

This is such a J.J.-esque response.

A I raised the possibly of either Powell or Rice on the ticket, and this was one of the reasons given why it wouldn't be a good idea.

[Lunar]

Let me get what's going on in J.J.-land

Obama's supporters are going to jump ship because a guy who supported the war announces he's going to pull the lever for Obama?  Yeaaaah

I stand by my comedy goldmine.