Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 that's more than ENOUGH to win OH, FL, IA or NC, Obama lost 201o midterms as you recall

2010 isnot a good example

[2016]

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 that's more than ENOUGH to win OH, FL, IA or NC, Obama lost 201o midterms as you recall

2010 isnot a good example

2018 isn't a good example either. Democrats won't get 2018 Turnout Levels in 2022. Trust me on this!

[Sir Mohamed]

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 that's more than ENOUGH to win OH, FL, IA or NC, Obama lost 201o midterms as you recall

2010 isnot a good example

2018 isn't a good example either. Democrats won't get 2018 Turnout Levels in 2022. Trust me on this!

I don't think DeSantis would lose even with 2018 turnout, tbh. That said, I expect turnout to remain relatively high by US standards for at least a few cycles to come. DeSantis is favored regardless, and high turnout doesn't automatically benefit Dems exclusively.

[AlterEgo]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

In a vacuum, I'd agree.

However...I think there will be a number of voters in the Democratic primary who are of the mind that, due to the closeness of the 2018 race, a white politician could have won the election and, therefore, may have "electability" concerns this time around with a black woman.

[2016]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

In a vacuum, I'd agree.

However...I think there will be a number of voters in the Democratic primary who are of the mind that, due to the closeness of the 2018 race, a white politician could have won the election and, therefore, may have "electability" concerns this time around with a black woman.

African American wasn't the Problem for Gillum. He was too liberal, endorsed by Bernie Sanders. That sunk him.

[AlterEgo]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

In a vacuum, I'd agree.

However...I think there will be a number of voters in the Democratic primary who are of the mind that, due to the closeness of the 2018 race, a white politician could have won the election and, therefore, may have "electability" concerns this time around with a black woman.

African American wasn't the Problem for Gillum. He was too liberal, endorsed by Bernie Sanders. That sunk him.

Nah, the D by his name was the problem in FL.

But, then again, I'm not discussing Demings for the GE, just the primary.

[brucejoel99]

There will inevitably be a number of Democratic primary voters concerned about her past as a law enforcement officer too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

The only thing that can take away Cubans from DeSantis is a strong Democratic party organization, voter outreach in both Spanish and English, and disinformation combating campaigns built up and consistently done several years in advance of the election (not to mention the price of this, if money is spent efficiently, probably would cost less than the biennial three-week-long ad blitz Democrats do in the state). Crist would fail if he can't do all of those things and more very, very well.

Also, Crist would probably do worse than Fried or John Morgan but that's just IMO. Does he have some personal connections to the Cuban community?

You're not gonna convince me that's why we have Predictions, we won Red state AZ and KS, out it on your Prediction

I go by polls except for NH, last poll had it a tie, just like PPP had OH Senate race a tie
..
Change Research has Hassan in much better shape against Sununu than partisan polls

Users aren't gonna convince D's that it's suddenly an R friendly Environment and they trail on Generic ballot 47/42

[Sir Mohamed]

CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

The only thing that can take away Cubans from DeSantis is a strong Democratic party organization, voter outreach in both Spanish and English, and disinformation combating campaigns built up and consistently done several years in advance of the election (not to mention the price of this, if money is spent efficiently, probably would cost less than the biennial three-week-long ad blitz Democrats do in the state). Crist would fail if he can't do all of those things and more very, very well.

Also, Crist would probably do worse than Fried or John Morgan but that's just IMO. Does he have some personal connections to the Cuban community?

You're not gonna convince me that's why we have Predictions, we won Red state AZ and KS, out it on your Prediction

I go by polls except for NH, last poll had it a tie, just like PPP had OH Senate race a tie
..
Change Research has Hassan in much better shape against Sununu than partisan polls

Users aren't gonna convince D's that it's suddenly an R friendly Environment and they trail on Generic ballot 47/42

Generic ballot nationwide is irrelevant in a FL gubernatorial election. If this was remotely relevant, Gillum would have won in 2018, while Scott would have won landslides in 2010 and 2014 instead of 1% nailbaiters.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1388494885154590723?s=21

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh. Dude isn't going to win.

Y'all are welcome to bump my posts in Nov. 2022 if he wins against DeSantis and call me an idiot.

[UWS]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

Well, good luck to Demings running as a former House Impeachment Manager IN Trump Country. FL is Trump Country. Trump won FL by a bigger margin last year than George W. Bush in his Re-Election 2004. FL isn't a Swing State anymore.

[/b]
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh? What reality are you in?

The Republicans gained two House seats last year and they were just 6 percentage points away from flipping FL-13 (which means that if Crist runs for Governor, it will be even easier to flip that seat). And Florida has elected Republican governors for more than 20 years. And the GOP even increased its majority in the FL House of Representatives that they controlled since the mid 90s.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1388494885154590723?s=21

I choose to believe that Olawakandi spoke this into existence.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ugh. Dude isn't going to win.

Y'all are welcome to bump my posts in Nov. 2022 if he wins against DeSantis and call me an idiot.

The last Fzl poll had it tied, it's not 291 nevermore it's the 413 FREIWAL

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Rep. Val Demings expected to run for Governor
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2021/04/29/desantis-gets-a-big-name-likely-opponent-492656

Interesting.  Likely their strongest possible candidate. 

Well, good luck to Demings running as a former House Impeachment Manager IN Trump Country. FL is Trump Country. Trump won FL by a bigger margin last year than George W. Bush in his Re-Election 2004. FL isn't a Swing State anymore.

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh? What reality are you in?

The Republicans gained two House seats last year and they were just 6 percentage points away from flipping FL-13 (which means that if Crist runs for Governor, it will be even easier to flip that seat). And Florida has elected Republican governors for more than 20 years. And the GOP even increased its majority in the FL House of Representatives that they controlled since the mid 90s.

That doesn't answer that you said Trump won Florida bigger than Bush, that's just an actually wrong statement,

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1388494885154590723?s=21

CRIST: HE HAS RISEN

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1388494885154590723?s=21

CRIST: HE HAS RISEN

mods better make this the title of the thread when crist announces hhaha

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1388494885154590723?s=21

CRIST: HE HAS RISEN

mods better make this the title of the thread when crist announces hhaha

This!

[Suburbia]

Crist and Demings should not run.....

[AlterEgo]

Ugh. Dude isn't going to win.

Y'all are welcome to bump my posts in Nov. 2022 if he wins against DeSantis and call me an idiot.

I have a hard time seeing Crist even make it out of the primary. He'd be completely DOA in a GE.

[Suburbia]

Crist should be a House lifer, Demings as well......

This race is Lean R/Likely R......

DeSantis wins reelection by 5-7 points

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

She probably should, but she definitely won't.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

She probably should, but she definitely won't.

If they did somehow win, the new Dem governor would also be able to get a lot more done with another Dem in the cabinet.  If all 3 of the other statewide offices are the opposite party of the governor, they can block a lot of the governor's executive powers, but a 2/2 tie goes in favor of the governor.