VA Early Voting #s

[Person Man]

Right now some over and under performing counties (votes per 1,000 registered voters):

State Avg: 53.5

Henrico: 63.4

Albemarle: 66.5

Chesterfield: 62.5

Buchanan: 19.8

Lee: 17.5

Basically, NOVA being dragged down by few early voting sites at this point... will tick up tremendously when they open all sites in Fairfax. 

SW VA has shockingly low turnout in many (but not all of the counties). 

The turnout appears highest in big suburban counties OUTSIDE of NOVA.

The high turnout counties all seem like the type of counties that the nerds live in.

[Person Man]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

[Person Man]

As of 10/21
Early in person votes: 368,553
Mail ballots returned: 190,659
Total = 559,212

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1451889211993432067

Boom.

[Person Man]

Where is Matty?

Coming up with more anecdotes.

[Person Man]

As of 10/22
Early in person votes: 410,868
Mail ballots returned: 199,686
Total = 610,554

As of 10/23
Early in person votes: 449,332
Mail ballots returned: 204,634
Total = 653,966

Fairfax had another huge day, with 9K early votes on Saturday - it's best yet.

This was all very predictable.  Fairfax is now about to overtake the statewide average. 

Any hopes that Dems weren't engaged were clearly misplaced.

Arlington and Alexandria (core Dem areas) are now well above the state average.

Well, either that, or "#WalkAway" is real.

[Person Man]

over 9,000. voted yesterday in Fairfax, but this doesn't tell the whole story as it doesn't include absentee ballots.  A lot of people will take their mail ballot and drop it in drop boxes of the satellite places.  Based on what I saw last year I'd estimate you can add another 10-15%.  So probably 10,000 voted yesterday.  Not bad, though I might have actually expected a bit more as it was the first Saturday with early voting at all Fairfax locations.  Then again I am an engaged voter and I didn't vote.  Early voting just wont be as high this year because the pandemic isn't a big issue here anymore.

What, 9,000? There's no way that can be right.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-fairfax-county-va/

I see that went over your head, Over 9000 is one of the oldest Internet memes I can remember, along with All Your Base Are Belong To Us.

Take off every Zig for Social Justice!

[Person Man]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

It’s hopeless, the Republican dictatorship followed by a civil war timeline is coming at this point.

…the ensuing nuclear winter/autumn might be nice though.

[Person Man]

Great sign for the Youngkin campaign:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1453138757331439619

Likely R

[Person Man]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

Youngkin wasn't a top-tier candidate, but he may have been the best candidate against a career politician like T-Mac, in that he provides a contrast.  The other thing I believe is that T-Mac isn't a personally popular candidate.  He only beat Cuccinelli by 1.5 points or so in 2013, and he's taken a hit by standing against parents involving themselves in school board issues (a stance he should have seen would not play well).  T-Mac may still win.  He's a slight fave still, as much as it pains me to say.  Youngkin hasn't quite closed the deal, and he well may not be able to.  But there's NOTHING I can think of that T-Mac can do at this point to boost his standing.  For him to be assured victory, he needs a BIG unforced error by Youngkin, and Younkin is a guy that's avoided this so far.

Why should parents have a say in what is taught, though?  They're not professionals in education.
 Also, last I checked, we elect school boards to make those decisions (representative democracy, much like state legislatures, Congress, etc.), so they already do have a say. 

If the parents want only what they want to be taught to kids, they can go to a charter school.

[Person Man]

10/28 update

Early in person votes: 680,932
Mail ballots returned: 256,049
Total: 936,981

And we topped the biggest day yet again - 64K early votes on Thursday

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

Final early vote of 1.2M?

[Person Man]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

Is there a chance for more tomorrow? If so, that probably gets us to 1.2-1.25 range.

[Person Man]

10/29 update

Early in person votes: 760,053
Mail ballots returned: 271,615
Total: 1,031,668

Another huge day of EV - 80k, best day yet, and 15K more mail-ins added.

As of 10/30
Early in person votes: 853,310
Mail ballots returned: 286,193
Total: 1,139,503

VPAP seems to be a bit out of date though, its saying only 9.7K in Fairfax for yesterday, but we know from their tweets it was 14K+

They just updated the Fairfax numbers btw...  now over 163K total.  Statewide total 1,142,155 at the moment.

Is there a chance for more tomorrow? If so, that probably gets us to 1.2-1.25 range.

Yes.  Usually these numbers get adjusted (i.e. moved up) a bit.  Plus more ballots will trickle in.  Not sure it will get to quite 1.2 though.  The good news (if you want T-Mac to win) is that Dems clearly ended early voting with a very strong numerical lead and many more will still turn out on Election Day.  It's not like 2020 when Dems essentially spent their entire load on early voting.

That’s what she said.