2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[GeorgiaModerate]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

Also, polls consistently show RFKjr with higher favorability among Republicans than Democrats.  But in any event, I expect his candidacy will have a negligible effect on the race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

Trump isn't winning 15% of Democrats (the percentage RFK Jr. is currently polling). If he was, he'd win in a landslide nationally.

But not all -- or even that many -- of those RFK voters will follow him to an independent candidacy.  And of those that do, many were probably not voting for Biden anyway, and latched onto RFK because he was an alternative with a famous name.  That is, they're not so much dedicated RFK voters as anti-Biden voters.

If you think this is going to pull a significant number of net votes away from Biden, you're engaging in very wishful thinking.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1707835343813148721

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GramG46133627/status/1707768098059665808?s=20

Bandit's probably even more in his corner now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those who think that any candidate who receives X% of a party's voters in primary polling would automatically take all of those voters -- or anything remotely close to it -- along with him to an independent run are either very naive about politics, engaging in wishful thinking, or both.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Following a couple of user suggestions, I've merged the RFK Jr.-as-Independent threads into this one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clearly, Rhode Island, Florida, and either Kansas or Kentucky.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Welcome to American politics. Neither the Democrats nor Republicans really believe in democracy. They believe in "the ends justify the means". Both parties in state governments they control seek to block parties and candidates to ensure the party they hate is the only alternative on the ballot in methods no different than what is used by Vladimir Putin's party in Russia. There are people employed by Joe Biden's campaign now seeking ways to ensure no one is on the ballot except Biden and probably Trump in several states, and CBS News got a hold of an email sent out to Utah Democratic Party county chairs by the party's Executive Director Thom DeSirant a couple weeks ago of "we must kill this effort now, don't even let [No Labels] get to the point of nominating candidates".

I must say, I'm not sure if I'm missing something, or if the Democratic leaders and media are just overly paranoid, but I don't get why they're worried about No Labels-it's true Biden's supporters are less devout than Trump, but most of those supporters of Biden who don't like him much are progressives, who aren't gonna be voting for Manchin or Larry Hogan or most other no labels candidates, especially when many left-wingers hate Machin. Trumps hold on whatever remains of his centrist voters is weaker if anything, and they're the only ones who'll listen to Manchin. So, unpopular opinion, I feel it will hurt Trump more, just based on what I know.

I'm inclined to agree, or think that at the worst (from a Democratic perspective) No Labels will draw from both Trump and Biden sufficiently to make it a wash.  And welcome to the forum!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moderation note:

To Open Source Intelligence:

I have deleted your post as a violation of the forum’s copyright rules. No more than 2 paragraphs or 20% of an article may be quoted, and the source should be attributed (I realize you can’t post links yet). As you are a new member, I won’t infract you for it, but please be mindful of the rules. The forum owner takes this very seriously.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So Kennedy has apparently gained in the Race to the WH aggegate poll, as he's now at 14.2%. Trump is being hurt by this, he's now at 2.1% ahead instead of 2.6%. I'm actually surprised, I thought Kennedy would pull equally. Some other polls have him mostly at equal percentages, or slightly below, but one by American Values has him at 19%, which could mean he could score higher than Perot did in 1996 if that poll is right and he keeps it up, since third parties typically score twice what they get.

Historically, the final vote total for third parties tends to be far below what they were polling well before the election.  People who respond to a poll saying they'll vote for a third party often have second thoughts about their vote being wasted and end up voting for one of the major parties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yes, that's why I mentioned he'd at most get more than Perot did in 1996-I factored in the fact that polls for third party candidates usually show twice the amount of support as votes they will receive.

Ah, thanks for clarifying.  I originally parsed your post as meaning the other way around (their final result would be higher than their poll standing).

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL!

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1713003718692528279

[GeorgiaModerate]

Recall that the Libertarians were polling as high as 15% once the nominations were clinched in 2016, too - while RFK Jr is far more well known than Johnson was at this point, he's also at least as crazy, if not more so. I'd take the over on him getting 5% in the general, for sure, but it's a tough road ahead to be anything other than a spoiler.

John Anderson (who I was a volunteer for) was polling as high as 25% in some polls in the middle of 1980.  He ended up with under 7%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1769759860017582371

[GeorgiaModerate]

Okay, well, good luck for him trying to take back the GOP.

Anyway, what does No Labels do now? Endorse Kennedy? Crossnominate Biden?

If RFK does pick Scott Brown then they should definitely nominate this cross-party ticket

https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-rfk-jr-vp-tier-list

Where did he generate these random names? Elon Musk? Really?

I'm not gonna sign up to read the rest of the article, but hopefully he acknowledges that Musk isn't eligible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1773108514589757854

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wait, so did RFK Jr just choose a literal random woman as his running mate, or is she well known in circles that I don't follow?

She's very wealthy, which I'm sure is a major factor, perhaps THE major factor.  He can use the money to help fund his ballot access efforts.  It's been reported that she put a majority of the money for his Super Bowl ad, which cost something like $7 million.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ruling out a No-Labels bid, Christie cites the potential to take votes away from Biden. Presumably, Christie's polling/research shows this possibility

That Democrats would actually consider Christie over Biden is an indicator of how unsatisfied Democrats are with Biden: they would consider a pro-2nd Amendment, pro-life, low government spending conservative over Biden .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/27/chris-christie-no-labels-president/

You are making an unjustified logical leap that the votes he'd take away from Biden are necessarily Democratic votes.  They could be, and in fact more likely would be, independent and soft Republicans who would choose Biden over Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Georgia Legislature just passed an elections bill that among other things would make it easier for 3rd parties/independents to make the ballot. I would expect Gov Kemp will sign it. The bill would grant access to Georgia’s ballot to any political party that has qualified for the presidential ballot in at least 20 states or territories. I believe GA was one of the harder states for a presidential candidate to get on the ballot because only the Republicans, Democrats and Libertarians were on the ballot in 2016 & 2020.

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-elections-voting-presidential-election-78ee0d966327b242d129fe7fe9ac32ce?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

Yes, Georgia has historically been difficult for third parties to get on the ballot.  This is a good change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wonder how much Trump’s paying RFK to run as a spoiler.

Trump paying someone?  Implausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/susannecraig/status/1788162985527058703

I'm not gonna say it...I'm not gonna say it...

[GeorgiaModerate]

MyLifeIsYours: I deleted your post because your signature is so large it makes the page too wide.  Feel free to repost it after fixing your signature.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Shanahan pumps $8 million of her own money into RFK Jr’s campaign. They say their ballot access push is now fully funded

But RFK Jr’s critics will have a field day. He just gave evidence to support the claim that he picked Shanahan for her money

https://www.kennedy24.com/kennedy_ballot_access_fully_funded

Was there ever any real doubt about that?