2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[MichaelM24]

Claudia de la Cruz (PSL) wins P&F primary in CA, beating Cornell West 45-40%. That's a major blow to his ballot access efforts.

It's a non-binding primary, though - while I certainly hope that De la Cruz is their nominee, I believe that the choice is really up to the state committee. If they think that West could bring more people out than De la Cruz, they may well go that way.

[Redban]

RFK Jr’s pac has hit the signature requirement for Michigan. They should get to about 70-80k at least by the deadline to have a cushion . He is bearing down on 100k signatures in AZ (the requirement is 43k)

But don’t worry - the Biden supporters on this site insist that RFK Jr won’t be a factor

https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1766560188780196212

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not gonna win anything

[Tekken_Guy]

RFK Jr’s pac has hit the signature requirement for Michigan. They should get to about 70-80k at least by the deadline to have a cushion . He is bearing down on 100k signatures in AZ (the requirement is 43k)

But don’t worry - the Biden supporters on this site insist that RFK Jr won’t be a factor

https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1766560188780196212

Doesn’t RFK take more votes from Trump than Biden?

[Redban]

RFK Jr’s pac has hit the signature requirement for Michigan. They should get to about 70-80k at least by the deadline to have a cushion . He is bearing down on 100k signatures in AZ (the requirement is 43k)

But don’t worry - the Biden supporters on this site insist that RFK Jr won’t be a factor

https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1766560188780196212

Doesn’t RFK take more votes from Trump than Biden?

It varies from poll to poll and from state to state. Some states he takes more from Biden, some states he seems to split between them, some states he seems to take more form Trump (particularly if you figure the Stein-West percentages are coming from Biden).

[Comrade Funk]

RFK I see getting like 5% in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK I see getting like 5% in the end.

Wrong he will get Jorgensen numbers 3 percent

[Redban]

RFK I see getting like 5% in the end.

Nope. He is polling literally triple that figure in 3-way matchup polls right now, and he has been in public eye for a whole year (so his number won't drop as "people get to know him"; they know him already). The time will come when you have to accept that RFK Jr will be a force in 2024's election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK I see getting like 5% in the end.

Nope. He is polling literally triple that figure in 3-way matchup polls right now, and he has been in public eye for a whole year (so his number won't drop as "people get to know him"; they know him already). The time will come when you have to accept that RFK Jr will be a force in 2024's election

In some polls third party candidates go down when it's time to vote even with RFK 3 percent with Slotkin Biden is still fav to win MI

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Recall that the Libertarians were polling as high as 15% once the nominations were clinched in 2016, too - while RFK Jr is far more well known than Johnson was at this point, he's also at least as crazy, if not more so. I'd take the over on him getting 5% in the general, for sure, but it's a tough road ahead to be anything other than a spoiler.

[SteveRogers]

RFK I see getting like 5% in the end.

Nope. He is polling literally triple that figure in 3-way matchup polls right now, and he has been in public eye for a whole year (so his number won't drop as "people get to know him"; they know him already). The time will come when you have to accept that RFK Jr will be a force in 2024's election

As a general rule of thumb, take a third party candidate’s peak performance in the polls, cut that by half, and you’ll have a good idea of the candidate’s actual ceiling.

[RI]

Has no one posted this yet?

No Labels may finally have a candidate in consideration for its third-party "unity ticket" in the 2024 presidential election.

Sources familiar with the group's efforts to field a third-party ticket tell ABC News that No Labels representatives have had meetings with former Georgia GOP Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan about running as the group's presidential candidate.

...

No Labels will announce a formal selection process next Thursday, March 14.

[MadmanMotley]

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1767654170926997969?t=822ufA_DvsQ5_syMi2...
From sports news, but looks like RFK jr wants Aaron Rodgers or Jesse Ventura as a VP candidate.

[The Mikado]

Pointed this out on Discord but there's no way Aaron Rodgers could continue to be a quarterback AND run for VP at the same time, right? He'd need to retire to do this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Recall that the Libertarians were polling as high as 15% once the nominations were clinched in 2016, too - while RFK Jr is far more well known than Johnson was at this point, he's also at least as crazy, if not more so. I'd take the over on him getting 5% in the general, for sure, but it's a tough road ahead to be anything other than a spoiler.

John Anderson (who I was a volunteer for) was polling as high as 25% in some polls in the middle of 1980.  He ended up with under 7%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1767654170926997969?t=822ufA_DvsQ5_syMi2...
From sports news, but looks like RFK jr wants Aaron Rodgers or Jesse Ventura as a VP candidate.

So stupid...

[Ferguson97]

Recall that the Libertarians were polling as high as 15% once the nominations were clinched in 2016, too - while RFK Jr is far more well known than Johnson was at this point, he's also at least as crazy, if not more so. I'd take the over on him getting 5% in the general, for sure, but it's a tough road ahead to be anything other than a spoiler.

I will absolutely take the under on that.

[dspNY]

I could see RFK Jr getting 10%+ in places where Ross Perot did really well in 1992: Alaska, Montana, Maine (but Maine has RCV so RFK Jr's votes will be distributed to another candidate).

RFK could also do well in big red or blue states (5-8%) where the race is already decided (California, Texas, NY).

RFK won't do well in any swing state IMO. I'd be shocked if he got more than 5% in any of the purple states except for maybe Nevada

[Open Source Intelligence]

People guessing vote share should remember 2 things:

1.) Ballot access is not finished. You have to wait until that's settled.
2.) For minor party candidates although what everyone focuses on is national vote count, what is more relevant is vote percentage per state. After Jorgensen and Hawkins last election, who finished 5th was eye of the beholder. You look at national vote count, it appeared to be De La Fuente and La Riva. However, they got California ballot access, and Blankenship and Kanye West did not (Kanye was the VP nominee for De La Fuente in California by the AIP). When you go state-by-state, Blankenship and Kanye had stronger presidential candidacies than De La Fuente and La Riva did. Getting 5% across a dozen Plains and Mountain West states means more to third parties and independent candidates than getting 60k votes in California for how our electoral system works.

We'll see how #1 plays out. There are people like the Democrats in New York State that have taken criminal actions in regards to elections to intentionally disallow alternatives on the ballot. Other states have done similar actions. We don't live in a free country that encourages freedom of thought, at least not on the election ballot, but what else is new.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

RFK to announce VP choice on March 26th in Oakland, California.

[Open Source Intelligence]

RFK to announce VP choice on March 26th in Oakland, California.

I don't see Aaron Rodgers being the choice if you're going to announce in Oakland, so that eliminates him.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pointed this out on Discord but there's no way Aaron Rodgers could continue to be a quarterback AND run for VP at the same time, right? He'd need to retire to do this.

I mean Deion Sanders played in MLB Playoffs and then immediately played an NFL game after that .

[Open Source Intelligence]

Pointed this out on Discord but there's no way Aaron Rodgers could continue to be a quarterback AND run for VP at the same time, right? He'd need to retire to do this.

I mean Deion Sanders played in MLB Playoffs and then immediately played an NFL game after that .

In that vein and it being Oakland, perhaps it's Bo Jackson.

"Bo Knows Politics."

(Looking forward to everyone having no clue what I'm talking about to show me I'm old.)

[AltWorlder]

RFK to announce VP choice on March 26th in Oakland, California.

I don't see Aaron Rodgers being the choice if you're going to announce in Oakland, so that eliminates him.

He’s going to nominate Kamala Harris

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

RFK to announce VP choice on March 26th in Oakland, California.

I don't see Aaron Rodgers being the choice if you're going to announce in Oakland, so that eliminates him.

He’s going to nominate Kamala Harris

It is where she announced her campaign (I was there). I definitely think you’re on to something. After all, RFK Jr exists in the context of all in which he lives and what came before him.