State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[It’s so Joever]

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all.

But this didn’t happen at all in IA, where Republicans performed very well in that special election (and arguably outperformed expectations). It’s crazy how much IA and NH have diverged since 2012 after voting so similarly five presidential elections in a row.

NH-SEN 2010 was arguably a more anomalous result than IN-PRES 2008 (which was at least partly foreshadowed by the 2006 House gains in IN).

Maybe it’s all the angry NH women voting D.

[It’s so Joever]

New England consistently has been the most based part of the country.

[It’s so Joever]

On April 5th, there'll be a special for a GOP-held State House seat in East Cobb and North Fulton, with a possible runoff on May 3: https://apnews.com/article/georgia-special-elections-elections-house-elections-0bf78e85e04327c9ca0803995e381874

I think I saw that Biden narrowly won the district, but the former State Rep won by 10 in 2020. Still could be an interesting indicator of what might happen in Georgia this fall.

Republican + 28 probably

[It’s so Joever]

It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

[It’s so Joever]

Also two state leg elections today, one in Connecticut (71) and one in Kentucky (42)

71 was only Trump+5, but it is more R downballot.

[It’s so Joever]

And boom. There’s confirmation of the polls.

[It’s so Joever]

I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.

Um…the swing over the past few months compared to 2020 has not been bad at all, and debatably even positive for Democrats when compared to 2020 if you account for incumbency.

[It’s so Joever]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

[It’s so Joever]

Special elections only count when there is a D overperformance.

[It’s so Joever]

Where is Wbrocks67 to tell us how this means Dems will win in 2024 by a landslide?

[It’s so Joever]

Red avatars are cheering a slight underperformance of Biden on here.