State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

Absoutley insane perfomance for the democrat in the special even with all the special factors.

[Minnesota Mike]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I am now going to use this result to predict a uniform swing of 13% towards the Democrats in every race in the nation this fall. That's how it works right?

[Roll Roons]

On April 5th, there'll be a special for a GOP-held State House seat in East Cobb and North Fulton, with a possible runoff on May 3: https://apnews.com/article/georgia-special-elections-elections-house-elections-0bf78e85e04327c9ca0803995e381874

I think I saw that Biden narrowly won the district, but the former State Rep won by 10 in 2020. Still could be an interesting indicator of what might happen in Georgia this fall.

[It’s so Joever]

On April 5th, there'll be a special for a GOP-held State House seat in East Cobb and North Fulton, with a possible runoff on May 3: https://apnews.com/article/georgia-special-elections-elections-house-elections-0bf78e85e04327c9ca0803995e381874

I think I saw that Biden narrowly won the district, but the former State Rep won by 10 in 2020. Still could be an interesting indicator of what might happen in Georgia this fall.

Republican + 28 probably

[Minnesota Mike]

Last Tuesday there was a special election in CA Assembly District 49. The Democrat won by 67%-33% (it's CA so results will trickle in for another month). In 2020 Democrats won this district 68%-32%. There was also another AD primary in a San Francisco area district with all Democrats.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

[Roll Roons]

It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

Special elections usually have very low turnout that can cause weird results. Like that one in Northwest Arkansas where a Trump +14 district ended up being a squeaker.

Plus at that level, campaign/candidate quality will matter more.

[It’s so Joever]

Also two state leg elections today, one in Connecticut (71) and one in Kentucky (42)

71 was only Trump+5, but it is more R downballot.

[Duke of York]

It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

Special elections usually have very low turnout that causes weird results.

state legislative specials are quite predicative of the national mood.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1496280888602243073

[BoiseBoy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1496280888602243073

Based on what I've read it's primarily because of decreased black turnout.

[Matty]

Dems won HD42 in kentucky 95-4. Lol

[Roll Roons]

Dems won HD42 in kentucky 95-4. Lol

Guys, Rand Paul's race is a tossup!

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1496280888602243073

Interesting that it was the entire city of Jacksonville and not just some random state house district. It’s only one race, but this shows that minority dem apathy towards Biden does matter. Either that or Jacksonville titan Marco Rubio was on the ballot

[Matty]

The R won in CT HD71

Waiting on margin

[Matty]

So…

The gop just won 77-23 in a Trump +6 seat in CT

Dems win 94-5 in a Biden +77 seat


I don’t get these conflicting signals

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

So…

The gop just won 77-23 in a Trump +6 seat in CT

Dems win 94-5 in a Biden +77 seat


I don’t get these conflicting signals

Source on CT result? Not seeing anything on DDHQ.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1496294217907425280

[MT Treasurer]

The one reason the Jacksonville election should concern Democrats is that that city/Duval County is generally similarly 'inelastic' as GA and probably the one part of the state closest (demographically/electorally) to GA, so if we’re seeing this kind of swing away from Democrats here and it’s a sign of things to come, even GA's more 'inelastic' character isn’t going to prevent a GOP win in that state given that GA Republicans only need a fraction of the Jacksonville swing. A 52-48 GOP win in GA honestly doesn’t sound that inconceivable either in a very Republican environment.

This is also a victory for DeSantis, who involved himself heavily in these local campaigns.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1496294217907425280

I'd hold out on speculating till we see an official tabulation, there's a chance that this is just ED votes.

[It’s so Joever]

And boom. There’s confirmation of the polls.

[lfromnj]

By the is the Jacksonville election all of Duval or just the city itself? The county was Biden +4 but the city was Biden +5.5.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For the record not only does the Jacksonville City Council have a Republican majority, all five of the at-large seats except previously this one are Republican-held. Jacksonville also has a Republican mayor: https://ballotpedia.org/Jacksonville,_Florida

Obviously this isn't good news for Democrats or "no big deal" considering both parties really played up the election but municipal elections aren't usually a good barometer of national elections and can be skewed by issues that have no relevance nationally.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the is the Jacksonville election all of Duval or just the city itself? The county was Biden +4 but the city was Biden +5.5.

The non-Jacksonville municipalities have their own governments so just the city. Still the last time all of these at-large seats were up the Republicans won 4/5 of the seats. Obviously a much whiter electorate than the Presidential one. And thus also not really a good barometer, based on the 2019 results you'd assume Trump would be running pretty strong in the area when Duval County actually swung against him and Biden was the first Democrat to win it since 1976. (Hillary probably narrowly won the city of Jacksonville even if not Duval County though and Obama might've squeaked out a victory in 2008 as well.)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/austin_mirmina/status/1498835790285127685