Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Indy Texas]

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/george-bush-tops-patterson-fundraising-land-commissioner-race/IX1qESbEltM1X5svb9cC0O/

George P. Bush: $3.4 million on hand, raised $1 million in the second half of 2017
Jerry Patterson: $95,452 on hand, raised $89,465 in December alone, and self-funded $20,000

Patterson's strategy is to force a runoff, and then hammer Bush on his single term compared to his own tenure.

The other two candidates in the race are pretty much non-factors. It seems unlikely that Bush will get less than 50% of the vote.

[Indy Texas]

I have never voted for a democrat before (granted I've only voted a few times and in only one GE since I'm 20) but I would seriously consider voting for White based on his education and flood plans (and maybe against Dan Patrick because I just don't like him)

I am voting in the GOP Primary, voting for Abbott because the other 2 are crazy, but for LT Gov I plan on voting for the moderate opponent to Patrick and probably a token protest vote against Ken Paxton as well. Something crazy I should note here, the TEA PARTY (which is rather strong in tarrant county) is planning on voting against incumbent GOP US Rep Kenny Marchant, because he is "too establishment", just wanted to put that out there. Also, I am voting for George P Bush in the Land Commissioner's race.

On another note, I don't see why Lupe Valdez would've resigned her Dallas County sheriff position unless she was going to run for something else in the future, so plan on seeing her run for something statewide again in the near future, she is probably trying to build up name recognition in this effort.

(1) Dan Patrick is insane. Please vote for Scott Milder in the GOP primary and for Mike Collier in the general election. k thx

(2) George P. Bush has been a mediocre, ineffective and quite possibly corrupt land commissioner. Jerry Patterson did an excellent job when he held the position.

(3) She cannot be sheriff while campaigning for another office. I don't know if this is an explicit law or if it's just a de facto custom, but other county sheriffs have also resigned before running for other offices which makes me assume there is a law prohibiting it.

[Indy Texas]

In more under the radar news there is actually a competitive race for the Libertarian nomination for Governor.

It ain't easy competing for the privilege of being the person who gets 1.5% of the vote in November.

[Indy Texas]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jzJWx-lnhLvlhbY5BNHExAX2_QAoBM8q3e05idU580Y/edit?usp=sharing

Here is what I have so far, every competitive State House race with Party, candidates on both sides, whether or not they are tea party vs establishment/business ( a big metric for tx gop) , and whether or not it has advanced to a runoff, will be adding more races soon.

For TX-08 put it as not tea party held. Brady has faced somewhat serious challenges twice in a row from people on his right.

Is he establishment though?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jzJWx-lnhLvlhbY5BNHExAX2_QAoBM8q3e05idU580Y/edit?usp=sharing

Here is what I have so far, every competitive State House race with Party, candidates on both sides, whether or not they are tea party vs establishment/business ( a big metric for tx gop) , and whether or not it has advanced to a runoff, will be adding more races soon.

If you would like, I could try to redraw the districts in DRA to get their PVIs.

that'd be cool, I am planning on doing state senate races (with competitive primaries) too

Kevin Brady is extremely Establishment. He's your standard-issue Chamber of Commerce Republican. I lived in his district when I was little (or rather, it was drawn to include my house at one point, since we never moved) and when my class took a trip to DC, we got to meet him.

Also, on your spreadsheet, you need to list HD-150 as Tea Party held. Valoree Swanson is about as Tea Party as Tea Party can get. In 2016, she primaried a very conservative GOP incumbent who endorsed the Democratic candidate in the general election.

[Indy Texas]

Texas simply does not have enough African-Americans for Doug Jones or Ralph Northam to be meaningful proof-of-concept for a Democratic victory. Texas actually had a black population (11.8%) that was below the national average (12.6%) in the 2010 census. It is by far the least black of any ex-Confederate state.

So Texas Democrats have to deal with fewer African-American votes to go after, a Hispanic population that is far less politically engaged and far more open to Republicans than California's, and a white population that lacks sufficient quantities of the socially liberal upscale suburbanites who live in Northern Virginia.

[Indy Texas]

I wonder why Abbot is so popular (relative to other GOP governors) among Atlas Dems, looking at the endorsement page.

He is your standard right wing Governor with a yuge warchest.

Valdez is a weak candidate running a very poor campaign and Texas doesn't really have any maor problems right now.

I support Lupe because shes the lesser of two evils but I mean like shes done some bad stuff like torturing prisoners and working with ice more than any other sherriff

Wait seriously??

Dems went with identity politics over the "electable" candidate in several states, but they can at least take solace that it seems to have been the right call in Florida and possibly Georgia. But it's not like they threw away a winnable race, White would probably be doing better but highly unlikely it would be in O'Rourke vs Cruz territory.

My hope is that White will be the nominee in 2022 when it's an open seat due to Abbott (presumably) retiring.

[Indy Texas]

Well if not BETO, please let it be Hegar.

It's going to be Castro. They've been planning this when Beto first announced: a Beto run to come up short so that they can get in and win a senate seat in 2020.

Castro would do much worse than Beto or Hegar.

I agree. Much of Beto's appeal is due to his authenticity. The Castro brothers don't strike me as nearly as authentic as Beto.

This times 10. Not to mention, doesn't Castro not speak Spanish? Hell, even most Anglo Texan politicians do that.

They don't.