Los Angeles Mayor 2022: Bass vs Caruso

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I know he's already posted in here but:

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Anyway, I really hope Karen Bass enters the race sooner than later. The candidate field is not impressing me at all right now.

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Bass had a huge launch event Saturday where she announced the endorsements of Villaraigosa, Judy Chu, George Gascon and actress Tiffany Haddish.
https://twitter.com/ib2_real/status/1449847153069723653
Kenneth Meija was also at the event
https://twitter.com/kennethmejiaLA/status/1449596925183868940

If that doesn't make it clear she's the best choice for LA, than nothing does.

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I caught a little bit of the last couple minutes on Fox11. It seemed to be Everyone vs Curuso, with Buscaino/Curuso taking up most of it from the first minute on (As expected). Apparently they started arguing within the first 5 minutes. Perhaps wisely, Bass tended to stay out of most of the arguing.

I very much doubt 5% of June voters were watching or even aware of this debate, but I'm very curious how the rest of the primary season is gonna go.

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It seems that Caruso has the big Mo right now--is that correct?

His political background/opportunism aside, he does seem to be running a far better campaign than I'd expect from a billionaire, basically-Republican real estate guy in a major city in 2022.

I assume this is a classic example of how money does effect these races, plus a little bit of Karen Bass not exactly lighting the Democratic voters on fire right now.

It's hard to tell at the moment. UC Berkeley released a poll in the last week showing Bass leading Caruso 38-32 among likely voters. In a one-on-one race, they have Bass leading 49-35.

Things can certainly change in the next 5 months, but Caruso seems to have a ceiling in the mid-30s that he hasn't cracked yet.


https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/25/02/3bd6c0344da19cac7377d5c6782d/la-q10-12-toplines.pdf

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Since Wednesday afternoon:


Caruso        155,929   40.5   ( - 1.6 )   (+ 22,420 votes)
Bass           149,104   38.8  ( + 1.8 )   (+ 32,416 votes)

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Since Wednesday afternoon:


Caruso        155,929   40.5   ( - 1.6 )   (+ 22,420 votes)
Bass           149,104   38.8  ( + 1.8 )   (+ 32,416 votes)

Since Friday afternoon:

Bass           202,818   41.1  ( + 2.3 )   (+ 53,714 votes)
Caruso        189,178   38.3   ( - 2.2 )   (+ 33,249 votes)

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Also, it ain't a true California elections thread unless folks complain about California's ballot counting process

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It’s actually outrageous how centrist media outlets like the NYT and Atlantic cited this election as a sign “progressives have gone too far” when the real story has been that progressives won big in LA.

Eunice’s Hernandez is now leading Gil Cedillo. There is a movement underway here that elite media is completely ignoring. And, yes, Snitch O’Farrell is next.

Funny enough, the LA Times wrote an editorial a few days ago pretty much reiterating your points

Editorial: Election night results are a thing of the past

[...]Just look at the June 7 primary. In the hours after the first results were posted online by county and state officials, there were plenty of declarations that the election was a “progressive backlash” and an “urban revolt” because the recall of San Francisco Dist. Atty. Chesa Boudin, a criminal justice reform champion, appeared to have overwhelming support and Rick Caruso, the once-Republican, now tougher-on-crime candidate for Los Angeles mayor, had a strong lead in the race.

A week later, the portion of votes in favor of recalling Boudin had shrunk from 60% to 55%; he’s still out of the job but it’s not a landslide. And Karen Bass, the more progressive candidate for L.A. mayor, is now leading in the race — and the results in that race could change again. Los Angeles County still has 365,000 ballots left to count.

And there have been other big shifts too. Last week it looked as though Los Angeles City Councilmember Gil Cedillo would win reelection. This week policy advocate Eunisses Hernandez is leading the race by nearly 300 votes. Whoever wins the primary, wins the seat. In the San Fernando Valley’s 20th state Senate District, the early returns suggested Daniel Hertzberg — son of the current holder of the seat, his father Bob Hertzberg — would face Republican Ely De La Cruz Ayao and most likely coast to an easy victory. As more votes were counted, Democrat Caroline Menjivar rose to second place, which would mean a more competitive Democract-vs.-Democrat runoff in November. Each batch of votes counted has brought big changes in key races, and there are still more batches to come.[...]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-06-16/election-night-results-california-voting

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Since last Tuesday:

Bass           277,459   43.1  ( + 2.0 )   (+ 74,641 votes)
Caruso        231,419   36.0   ( - 2.3 )   (+ 42,241 votes)


Caruso is right around the mid-30s range he's maxed out at in the polls.


Also, since the morning after election day;

Bass           +160,771 votes   +6.1%
Caruso          +98,360 votes   -6.1%

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And the council district numbers I posted are actually from post election night and haven't been updated since then so Caruso probably has won fewer districts than those numbers indicate.

You'd be right!

LA County uploaded, what looks to be, the final vote count. Underlined districts are those that flipped from Caruso to Bass since Election Day.

DISTRICT 1 (Northeast Los Angeles, Pico Union)
Caruso    24.6% (-6.2% from E-Day)
Bass       37.2% (+7.5%)

DISTRICT 2 (North Hollywood, Valley Glen, Valley Village)
Caruso    33.0% (-7.8%)
Bass       44.1% (+7.1%)

DISTRICT 3 (Canoga Park, Winnetka, Woodland Hills)
Caruso    47.2% (-6.4%)
Bass       35.0% (+6.0%)

DISTRICT 4 (Encino, Laurel Canyon, Sherman Oaks)
Caruso    35.2% (-6.7%)
Bass       49.3% (+6.3%)

DISTRICT 5 (Bel Air, Fairfax, Westwood)
Caruso    38.9% (-6.1%)
Bass       48.6% (+5.5%)

DISTRICT 6 (Lake Balboa, Van Nuys, Sun Valley)
Caruso    41.0% (-7.4%)
Bass       31.3% (+7.1%)

DISTRICT 7 (Palcoma, Sunland-Tujunga, Sylmar)
Caruso    47.9% (-5.5%)
Bass       27.0% (+5.2%)

DISTRICT 8 (South Los Angeles)
Caruso    19.1% (-2.9%)
Bass       64.5% (+2.9%)

DISTRICT 9 (South Los Angeles)
Caruso    26.2% (-4.4%)
Bass       37.8% (+2.9%)

DISTRICT 10 (Baldwin Hills, Crenshaw, Leimert Park)
Caruso    22.2% (-5.3%)
Bass       55.8% (+5.8%)

DISTRICT 11 (Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Venice)
Caruso    41.0% (-5.7%)
Bass       48.1% (+5.5%)

DISTRICT 12 (Chatsworth, Granada Hills, Northridge)
Caruso    52.4% (-5.3%)
Bass       31.7% (+5.1%)

DISTRICT 13 (Atwater Village, Hollywood, Silverlake)
Caruso    24.5% (-6.8%)
Bass       45.8% (+7.0%)

DISTRICT 14 (Boyle Heights, Downtown Los Angeles, Eagle Rock)
Caruso    26.1% (-6.1%)
Bass       39.6% (+7.7%)

DISTRICT 15 (San Pedro, Watts)
Caruso    43.3%   (-4.0%)
Bass       32.0% (+5.0%)



https://content.lavote.gov/docs/rrcc/svc/4269_final_svc_citycouncil_zbc.pdf?v=2

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I hope the LA Times ordered a poll for the Mayoral race. Outside of Biden/Harris endorsing Bass earlier this month, that race has been dead quiet since the primary.

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It really feels like the air has been let out of the balloon in regards to Caruso.

Before the primary, I noted that he hadn't cracked the mid-30s ceiling in polling and I'm still pretty confident that he's not gonna eclipse that in November. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting around the same 36% he got in the primary.

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I've never understood why the left rails so hard against Mitch. How is what happened at Echo Park Lake any different than Centennial Park in CD11 or the freeway underpasses in CD4?

And now the left is going to be okay with the members elevating CURREN PRICE to Council President? Yikes. Hopefully it ends up being Krekorian.

Who is "The Left"?

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Interesting the mayor already gets inaugurated in December here instead of January. Bass' departure from the House has the outgoing majority now reduced to 218-213.

There tends to be a quick turnaround around here between certification and inauguration, with early-mid December being common for November elections. Councilmembers in my town are typically sworn in after 2 weeks. The state legislature was sworn in a week ago even though there was still some uncalled races.

Also, it's not just Bass being sworn in but a new City Attorney, City Controller and 1/3 of the City Council. I doubt they most of them wanna sit around another 3 weeks just for Bass to sit around in DC (herself included), especially since they're all pushing the homelessness crisis as an urgent priority they can't waste time on (Bass already declared a local state of emergency and more power to build interim housing)

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I didn't even realize there was a Council primary last night. It was fairly buried on the LA Times website yesterday and nothing about it today

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This is the most discussion I've seen about Cenk Uyghur since his 2020 congressional run. I'm surprised he's still relevant enough on here