KS Sen GE 2020, Bollier vs Kobach, Rate It

[Xing]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

You also had AL-SEN 2017 and KY-GOV 2019 as Safe R, so yeah... (and LA-GOV 2015 as Lean R, IIRC).

Kobach isn’t quite comparable to Moore, and this isn’t a gubernatorial race. (I had LA-GOV 2015 as Lean D once I knew it would be Edwards vs. Vitter.)

WV-SEN 2018, MT-SEN 2018, OH-SEN 2018, AL-SEN 2017, etc. were gubernatorial races? And Kobach doesn’t need to be as awful of a candidate as Moore in a state far less Republican than Alabama.

Then again, people here think Joni Ernst is more likely to lose than Kris Kobach.

IA and OH may be getting more and more Republican, but they’re not yet as Republican as KS, and MT and WV have been far more Democratic friendly at the statewide level, whereas KS has specifically elected a lot of Democratic governors without electing a single Democratic Senator. And while it’s possible that 2020 could be as good of a year as 2018 for Democrats (thus why it’s only Likely R), I’m guessing it’ll be a better year for Republicans, and thus we’re unlikely to see Democrats doing well in dark red states.

[MT Treasurer]

IA and OH may be getting more and more Republican, but they’re not yet as Republican as KS

I wasn’t talking about the presidential level but about the Senate races in those states. Assuming that Kobach is more likely to win than Ernst just because Trump will probably win KS by more than IA is foolish. Candidate quality definitely still matters in red states, and split-ticket voting still exists. MO was way more Republican than WI in 2016, yet Blunt did worse than Ron Johnson (something pretty much no one predicted or would have thought possible).

[Calthrina950]

After what happened in Kentucky last year, I'm much less confident then I was before declaring Democrats DOA in races with controversial candidates like these. But then again, I'm reminded of Phil Bredesen's failure in Tennessee. I would rate this race as Lean/Likely Republican, with the possibility of a Bollier upset, depending on the political environment, gaffes and/or campaign errors made by Kobach, and the state of the polls by Election Day. An anti-Trump backlash in Johnson County could also have some repercussions down ballot. However, this is Kansas, and no Democrat has won a Senate race here in 88 years-the longest drought of any state in the Union. The last Democratic Senator left office when Roosevelt was President! I'm not too confident 2020 will be the year that drought will finally be broken.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly and Bollier can do what Sinema did last yr and win in Red states. It's no accident that Gov Kelly won in KS and Sinema won in AZ, the Plain states arent GOP leaning like Southern states are, especially in Prez races

[It’s so Joever]

Likely R.
2018 was a wave year and even then Kelly only narrowly edged out Kobach (plus Orman skewed the results a bit)
Bollier is a strong candidate for the State and could surprise us, but I am skeptical.

[Xing]

IA and OH may be getting more and more Republican, but they’re not yet as Republican as KS

I wasn’t talking about the presidential level but about the Senate races in those states. Assuming that Kobach is more likely to win than Ernst just because Trump will probably win KS by more than IA is foolish. Candidate quality definitely still matters in red states, and split-ticket voting still exists. MO was way more Republican than WI in 2016, yet Blunt did worse than Ron Johnson (something pretty much no one predicted or would have thought possible).

If you’re trying to argue that Ernst could win by more than Kobach, then sure, it’s definitely possible. Barring a very good Democratic year, though, I don’t think Ernst is going to win by a very small margin (or lose), so we might just be splitting hairs. I don’t think the Senate races in MT, OH, and WV in 2018 are really comparable to this race.

[One Term Floridian]

Tilt D and only because it's a federal race in a presidential year; would have been Likely D in a Trump midterm. Kobach is too toxic to make this an easy race for Republicans, even in ruby red KS

[One Term Floridian]

Likely R.
2018 was a wave year and even then Kelly only narrowly edged out Kobach (plus Orman skewed the results a bit)
Bollier is a strong candidate for the State and could surprise us, but I am skeptical.

I wouldn't say Kelly's 5-point win was narrow...plus as you said Orman skewed the results; she would have easily garnered a majority and won by even more without Orman siphoning away nearly 7% of the vote. Kobach's 43% statewide showing was utterly abyssal for a Republican running anywhere in the Great Plains

[Morning in Atlas]

Fool's gold.

[smoltchanov]

Between Lean and Likely R...

[ElectionsGuy]

This is going to go down as one of the delusional Atlas obsessions of 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fool's gold.

In 2018 Gov Kelly beat the odds and won and so did Sinema, whom won in deep red states. It's an open seat and is more valuable than NC, another vulnerable seat

[jamestroll]

on logic Lean R.

My prediction that it will be won by Bollier.

And the fact that Kansas has the longest drought without an elected Democratic Senator in the nation means abolsolutely nothing.

Texas had the longest streak right now with an elected Democrat in statewide office. Are we going to say that Arkansas is more likely to elect a Democrat statewide than Texas due that? Of course.

The Kansas drought ends this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It should of flipped in 2014, but Robert's, like Ernst was helped, in an R wave. Just like Ernest, KS can flip

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are definitely gonna see split voting again, but KS can vote D for Prez

[Epaminondas]

This cycle is looking to be D+7 at least. Since Kelly won by 5, certainly Bollier can pull it off (albeit narrowly) against Mad Dog Kobach.

It should of flipped in 2014, but Robert's, like Ernst was helped, in an R wave. Just like Ernest, KS can flip

It's spelt "should have". It's about the fifth time this month you write the expression that way, is there a reason?

[HarrisonL]

Likely R. Senate Elections are more partisan than Gubernatorial Elections, and Trump's down the ballot vote in Kansas will put Kobach over the top against Bollier. Other Republican besides Kobach makes this solid.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I don't know, but I expect Bollier to win the seat.

[Suburbia]

Lean R, but Kobach won't win the nomination.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Probably likely R. There is a chance for Bollier to win but I don't think it's as high many seem to.

Prepare for Senator Kobach to becomes Trump's heir apparent in 2024.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Lean R. Kobach is the only nominee that could screw this one up for the GOP.

[jamestroll]

It will be hilarious to see some people on here riot when Kansas, and a few other states, vote different for Senate and President.

Not everything will be like 2016 forever.