KS Sen GE 2020, Bollier vs Kobach, Rate It

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am actually bullish about this one in the scenario Kobach gets the nomination, Tilt D.

[OBD]

Let's not kid around, it would still be Likely R at least to start. That said, there would still be a narrow road to victory for Bollier if things break just right.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Lean R

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican at least. Bollier seems to be a strong recruitment and KKKobach a weal candidate, but it's Kansas and a national race, not comparable to Laura Kelly's upset gubernatorial win. Bollier may win in the perfect storm and come within single digits, but I'm not too confident.

Btw, thread should be moved to the congressional board.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R. Senate races are very different from gubernatorial races.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Safe D. It's Kansas, for crying out loud.
Jokes aside, lean R.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt R to Lean R

-Yeah, Kobach lost the Gov race but there are some differences between a Gov race and a Sen race which is far more partisan and less prone to split ticket. Just look at the 2015 LA-Gov race, Vitter lost it even if he won easily the 2010 Sen race. Same thing in KY, had Bevin been a Senator he would have likely survived because of the greater polarization of federal races.

-Bollier is not a bad candidate but she is overrated, she is a liberal, suburban Democrat, she is a great fit for Johnson County but once again KS =/= Johnson County.

-Trump will win KS by 15 or more, thus he would likely carry Kobach accross the finish line, the big problem of Roy Moore, Pat Morrissey, Matt Rosendale or Matt Bevin is that Trump was not on the ballot, had they run with Trump on the ballot they would have likely all won as Trump would have drove lower turnout propensity conservative voters to polls

-A good comparison for a such race would be the 2018 KS-2 House race, Kobach like Watkins is a weak candidate but for the reasons stated above he would likely prevail nevertheless

[MT Treasurer]

Titanium R. Republicans couldn’t possibly lose a Senate race in a red state in the Trump era of record polarization, KS isn’t trending Democratic at all, Trump being on the ballot will guarantee a R hold here, polling showing Kobach trailing Bollier is obviously manipulated, etc.

[Xing]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

[Frenchrepublican]

Titanium R. Republicans couldn’t possibly lose a Senate race in a red state in the Trump era of record polarization, KS isn’t trending Democratic at all, Trump being on the ballot will guarantee a R hold here, polling showing Kobach trailing Bollier is obviously manipulated, etc.

Kobach is  not even the nominee. Relax

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

You also had AL-SEN 2017 and KY-GOV 2019 as Safe R, so yeah... (and LA-GOV 2015 as Lean R, IIRC).

[windjammer]

He's going to win by 5-10 points. So lean rep is appropriate.

[Xing]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

You also had AL-SEN 2017 and KY-GOV 2019 as Safe R, so yeah... (and LA-GOV 2015 as Lean R, IIRC).

Kobach isn’t quite comparable to Moore, and this isn’t a gubernatorial race. (I had LA-GOV 2015 as Lean D once I knew it would be Edwards vs. Vitter.)

[Pericles]

He's going to win by 5-10 points. So lean rep is appropriate.

Agreed, Lean or Likely R. A slim opportunity for Dems in the unlikely event that Kobach is the nominee, but no tossup race. KS realistically won’t flip.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

You also had AL-SEN 2017 and KY-GOV 2019 as Safe R, so yeah... (and LA-GOV 2015 as Lean R, IIRC).

Kobach isn’t quite comparable to Moore, and this isn’t a gubernatorial race. (I had LA-GOV 2015 as Lean D once I knew it would be Edwards vs. Vitter.)

WV-SEN 2018, MT-SEN 2018, OH-SEN 2018, AL-SEN 2017, etc. were gubernatorial races? And Kobach doesn’t need to be as awful of a candidate as Moore in a state far less Republican than Alabama.

Then again, people here think Joni Ernst is more likely to lose than Kris Kobach.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Did I actually get infracted for posting this in the election what if's board? Are you serious? Was a thread move on its own not enough or something.

[BP🌹]

Did I actually get infracted for posting this in the election what if's board? Are you serious? Was a thread move on its own not enough or something.

People report other people they don't like for frivolous things, and mods are more than willing to infract if they also don't like them.

[DrScholl]

If Republicans were trying to actively recruit someone other than Kobach, then clearly he is a problem for them. He could very seriously lose this seat and I expect that he will.

[Brittain33]

Likely R. Will look competitive with Kobach as the nominee, but the Democrats start off too far from the 50-yard line to get there against even a flawed Republican. I'm not sure Kobach's kind of flaws are the kind that seriously turn off enough Republican voters.

[Galeel]

Lean R, closer to likely than tossup.

[Ljube]

Lean D.
But I expect that Pompeo will eventually jump in.

[Gracile]

Likely R. While I think this race could become more competitive due to the state's trends and especially Kobach as the GOP nominee, a Democratic Senator from Kansas is something I really have to see to believe. Right now I'd probably say it would result in a single-digit Kobach victory.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. While I think this race could become more competitive due to the state's trends and especially Kobach as the GOP nominee, a Democratic Senator from Kansas is something I really have to see to believe. Right now I'd probably say it would result in a single-digit Kobach victory.

The state has had competitive Senate races before (e.g. 1996, 2014), it’s just that Republicans have gotten lucky in all of them (Dole being the nominee in 1996 helped Brownback a lot, 2014 being a GOP wave year obviously helped Roberts).

Fun fact: Bob Dole won his second Senate race in 1974 by less than 2 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO, KS and ME are Dems route to Majority

[TDAS04]

Lean R.  If Trump is held to a 9-point margin of victory in Kansas, then Bollier could plausibly win a squeaker.