FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nice!

Little by little


NC and Ohio are little bit off, but overall it seems like Clinton up 1-3 nationally.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wow, if Clinton is getting these numbers in rigged Quinnijunk polls, imagine what her numbers must really be! Trump is FLOUNDERING, folks. Sad!

Love you!

Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.

You too!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This takes NC to slight Rep on the Atlas map.

Q-poll takes it right back

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten from 538 seems to think Suffolk has it weighted better than Quinnipiac, 69% white vs Q's 64% white (it was 71% in 2012).

I expect red hacks to be as unskew'ish as they were towards CNN

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten of 538 noted that the racial weighting seems a bit funky. 64% white, vs 71% in 2012.

I played around in Excel, and matching 2012's racial demographics is a 1 point Trump lead, and assuming 70% is a tie.

Nate Cohn (Upshot NYT) agrees:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So shell we unskew it like CNN? Invisible Obama taught me, that demographical unskewing is not really an unskewing. Right, Invisible Obama?

With that said, unskewing was totally based on the concept of party ID and nothing else. If you are talking about the actual demographics of the election, then that is where polls can end up being wrong. I'm talking about what Gallup did when they assumed that the 2012 electorate would look like 2000. It has nothing to do with party and everything to do with demographics.

Let's do it! Or does it apply to Trump friendly polls ONLY?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.

Will you be consistent and unskew this poll?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.

Will you be consistent and unskew this poll?

Are you trying to make his behavior match your expectations?  That sounds like you're unskewing it.

CONSISTENT.

Either you unskew all the polls [with "wrong" demographics] or you don't. It is that simple, bro
Othervise, it seems little bit... ehm.. pathetic. Do you really not think so

You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.

Will you be consistent and unskew this poll?

The poll speaks for itself.

But CNN

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Compared to their polls from    JUL. 30-AUG. 7
Also LV:

Florida
Clinton - 43% (+0)
Trump - 43%  (+0)
Johnson - 8% (-1)

Ohio
Trump - 41% (-1)
Clinton - 37% (-7)
Johnson - 14% (+6)

Pennsylvania
Clinton - 44% (-4)
Trump - 39%  (+0)
Johnson - 9% (+2)
[/quote]

So, the shift in Florida is too Clinon-friendly, while shift in Ohio is too Trump-friendly. Othervise Clinton >>> Johnson.

It is pretty much consistent with national polls. They show, that Trump was gaining 1-2% since Khan controversy (Clinton +8-9), while Hillary was losing 3-4%. Though Johnson was very stable in nat.polls...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.

Discussions?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

is not really a discussion.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.

According to 538, QU so far has had R house effect of exactly the same size as Marist has had for D.
But I haven't seen any discussions about Marist, have you? I wounder why...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.

So... was this post really necessary? If you're just going to derail threads, I'll put you on ignore.

Lol

It is sort of normal on this forum to +1 posts one likes by quoting them

Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.

Okay, you need to stop. Have you ever had an original thought in your life? Have you even ever thought anything before? Because if you have, then please just stop constantly spamming and constantly empty quoting and put an ounce of thought into the posts you make. This is an intervention. We care about you and we want you to be happy. This isn't good for you.

Also, how old are you?

It is offtopic. Why didn't you write a pm to me?
Do you wanna get some kudos from red hacks?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Lol

It is sort of normal on this forum to +1 posts one likes by quoting them

Uh, the guy was criticizing you in his post.

I found it very ironical, that he criticised my "spamming" by offtop'ing.
And... what did he expext to get as answer?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is actually weird how well Trump is doing in Ohio, despite a strong "non-endorsment" from Kasich (who has high favorables there, right?)

I expected him to do better in Florida than Ohio. Hispanics?