NC-Suffolk: Trump +3

[JRP1994]

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_8_2016_north_carolina_tables_updated.pdf

Trump: 44%
Clinton: 41%
Johnson: 4%

[Xing]

[RFayette]

This is about even when taking the pollster's R historical bias into account, so this is in line with other polls we have seen.

[Dr. Arch]

[The Other Castro]

NC should be close at the moment given a 2012-level national polling lead, and margin of error should result in polls like this sometimes. Not an unexpected result.

[The Other Castro]

But clearly SC is a Tossup, amirite guys?

SC was understandably close when Clinton had a larger national lead. It makes sense that as her national polling lead narrows, some states grow further away.

[Fusionmunster]

If Hillary rebounds, and I think she will, NC will flip back. If not, we're looking at 2012 map again.

[Buzz]

Great Poll!

[Person Man]

This puts NC about 6 points to the right of the country. In 2012, it was that was as well. It is a discouraging poll, but it just came after a poll that had Clinton running at the national average.

If Hillary rebounds, and I think she will, NC will flip back. If not, we're looking at 2012 map again.

I think that and Iowa might fall, too. I think Nevada will be OK. ME-02 might be surprising.
So, Clinton would be at 325?  

[RI]

This takes NC to slight Rep on the Atlas map.

[Fusionmunster]

This puts NC about 6 points to the right of the country. In 2012, it was that was as well. It is a discouraging poll, but it just came after a poll that had Clinton running at the national average.

If Hillary rebounds, and I think she will, NC will flip back. If not, we're looking at 2012 map again.

I think that and Iowa might fall, too. I think Nevada will be OK. ME-02 might be surprising.
So, Clinton would be at 325?  

A comfortable, if disappointing electoral victory.

[The Other Castro]

Among those who didn't pick Clinton or Trump: "Who would be your second choice if it were between Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton?"

Clinton - 63%
Trump - 11%
Other - 11%
Undecided - 16%

[ursulahx]

I'm still wondering what effect voter suppression (or anti-fraud measures, depending on your perspective) will have in NC.

[Person Man]

Among those who didn't pick Clinton or Trump: "Who would be your second choice if it were between Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton?"

Clinton - 63%
Trump - 11%
Other - 11%
Undecided - 16%

If Trump ties it up or takes the lead and with the other candidates making asses of themselves, this could be a reserve of support for Clinton. But even when everyone get behind Kerry, it seemed that all of his voted went to Bush instead though most likely, a lot of Nader people stayed home and Bush probably did really well reaching out to minorities over the gay thing.

[john cage bubblegum]

But clearly SC is a Tossup, amirite guys?

SC was understandably close when Clinton had a larger national lead. It makes sense that as her national polling lead narrows, some states grow further away.

It's really not that hard a concept, but it seems some people have trouble with it. 

I still think that Trump has an NC problem in a close race, even though this poll suggests some educated whites have come home for Trump in NC.  This is a small sample size; I'd like to see more polling from NC.

[SirMuxALot]

I'm still wondering what effect voter suppression (or anti-fraud measures, depending on your perspective) will have in NC.

Probably about the same effect as travel suppression measures (requiring drivers licenses to operate a vehicle, bus fare or fare card for riding mass transit) has on people getting to the polls in the first place.

[Virginiá]

But clearly SC is a Tossup, amirite guys?

SC was understandably close when Clinton had a larger national lead. It makes sense that as her national polling lead narrows, some states grow further away.

It's really not that hard a concept, but it seems some people have trouble with it.  

I still think that Trump has an NC problem in a close race, even though this poll suggests some educated whites have come home for Trump in NC.  This is a small sample size; I'd like to see more polling from NC.

TN just likes to dump on people. He frequently makes these kinds of posts.

[Gass3268]

Clinton's far superior GOTV operations are going to be key in this state, especially with absentee voting already starting.

[Maxwell]

RIP toss-up South Carolina.

sad!

[Wiz in Wis]

Not exactly an outlier... NC should poll close if Hillary is up 3-4.

[Wiz in Wis]

This takes NC to slight Rep on the Atlas map.

Q-poll takes it right back

[Senator-elect Spark]

Here's a poll straight from the source, she will not win NC in the end.

[The Other Castro]

Here's a poll straight from the source, she will not win NC in the end.

Not sure what you mean by the source, since Suffolk University is in Boston, but whatever.

[HillOfANight]

This takes NC to slight Rep on the Atlas map.

Q-poll takes it right back

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten from 538 seems to think Suffolk has it weighted better than Quinnipiac, 69% white vs Q's 64% white (it was 71% in 2012).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This takes NC to slight Rep on the Atlas map.

Q-poll takes it right back

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten from 538 seems to think Suffolk has it weighted better than Quinnipiac, 69% white vs Q's 64% white (it was 71% in 2012).

Wait... Quinnipiac has a sample that is TOO DEMOCRATIC? I'm stunned.

From now on, it is Atlas' favorite poll!