Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

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It's official:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391931893013229568

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I didn't realize that Amanda Chase's district only voted for Trump by 4 points. I'm surprised it would elect someone as crazy as her.

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For some reason, Youngkin doesn't have a Wikipedia page yet.

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For non hacks, even if Virginia were a "solid blue state" like New Jersey, it clearly has red areas and swing areas and you can glean a lot of info based on how they vote.  The 2017 election made clear that Republicans were tanking in the suburbs, and especially educated suburbs.  To think how it votes in 2021 says nothing about the next election is ridiculous.  It tells you info on how regions are voting and you can put it into context that it's a year out and things could change.  Especially since both parties appear to be nominating bland white guys who aren't super controversial and bring their own baggage into the race.

New Jersey also has red and swing areas. Even though Murphy may be heavily favored, I think it's still somewhat worth watching.

And Virginia and New Jersey didn't even vote that far apart at the presidential level. The gap between them was much smaller than the gap between Virginia and, say, Maryland or Massachusetts.

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Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

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Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

I actually like that. It gives us election nerds something to follow every year. Plus as someone who follows New Jersey politics, it's nice that things are less nationalized because they don't coincide with midterms or presidential years.

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Virginia counts quickly right? So will we have a good idea of LG on Tuesday? Governor should be a lock for McAuliffe and Herring looks like a clear favorite for AG.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1402402244834758657

I know it's only a few votes but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the final outcome looks like this.

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Virginia is a solid blue state that is getting bluer but the day

How on earth didn’t a young, vibrant, fresh rising star emerge here?

Instead we are stuck with a boring stale guy who was already governor anyway.

What went wrong?

All those yuppies in nova really want this???

Because he got accused of sexual harassment.

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FWIW, Ayala is leading LG by a surprisingly comfortable margin, and Herring is up narrowly.

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Also LOL at Lee Carter losing his delegate seat in the primary

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Without using the words.. he is rich... what exactly is making people think youngkin is such a great candidate and an unbeatable titan?

I have been saying this for weeks.  Youngkin is completely overrated.  All he brings to the table is money and an unlikable face.

I think part of it is that people are giving the Virginia GOP credit because for once, they didn't nominate the most outwardly crazy candidate (Chase).

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One other thing to ad about Youngkin's piss poor performance.  This is exactly what happens when a party does back room deals to anoint a candidate in waiting that they think is more electable.  Dems did this with Hillary and look how that turned out.  When you actually have a real primary it tests candidate quality, even if you might get someone who is a little more partisan or who doesn't seem as good on paper.  I am sure people though Rubio was more electable than Trump at the time.  But the bottom line is when parties do that they shoot themselves in the foot because they get a Hillary or a Youngkin.  

Even if you think Youngkin is doing poorly, it's not like Amanda Chase of all people would have been any better.

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McAuliffle posts a leaked tape of Youngkin asking students not to get the vaccine.
I’m sure this is lacking some context, but it sounds pretty freaking bad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1438641459796877317

Especially ironic following his comments asking for a pro-vaccine PSA with McAuliffe.

Yikes. Yeah, that's an absolutely terrible look.

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Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

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https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1441374272602218496

Because of course.

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FWIW:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1445062470503129100

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I personally believe that panic is the best motivator in political campaigns, whether a campaign is in trouble or not. Even if this only serves to energize turnout and fundraising to pad McAuliffe's, and maybe the other statewide candidates' margins, I think it's still worth it. I don't think there's a downside.

Biden won by over 10% in 52 of the Dems 55 current seats in the HoD. Only 12, 75, 91  were below 10% and all 3 went to Clinton in 2016. The Rs will have to flip a couple Biden +11 seats while holding open ones like Kirk Cox's seat.

FWIW, there are currently six Republican delegates from Biden seats. Chaz Nuttycombe has four of those seats as Likely or Safe R - Kirk Cox's open seat is a Tossup and another seat in Chesterfield is Tilt R.

Meanwhile, he's got six Dem-held seats as tossups, two as Tilt D, and two more as Lean D, and all of those seats were won by Biden.

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One example is HD-34, which runs along the Potomac from McLean to Trump's golf course (this is probably in the top ten wealthiest state legislative districts in the country).

I'd be curious as to what the richest state legislative districts in the country are. That one's definitely up there. Probably, among others, the Beverly Hills/Brentwood/Bel Air district in CA, at least one in Silicon Valley, the Park Cities district in TX, Tom Kean's suburban district in NJ, the Greenwich seat in CT, the Medina/Clyde Hill district in WA, a UES district and the Winnetka/Kenilworth district in IL.

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https://twitter.com/RudyGiuliani/status/1450588352093294592

Yes. This is really the world we live in.

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Still don't understand why NJ and VA still have odd-year elections for State Races.

Idk about VA, but for NJ, Gov. Alfred Driscoll instituted this system in the 1940s so the state-level races could be decoupled from national ones. Personally, I like it. At least it gives us something to follow and talk about!

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Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

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https://twitter.com/derekwillis/status/1454185848350576643

So if McAuliffe loses, I guess it proves that Democrats can't just run on "Orange Man Bad", even in blue states.

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Because of course:

https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1454195114256093191

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I think the only really competitive GOP-held Delegate seat is Kirk Cox's open district (HD-66) in Chesterfield/Colonial Heights.

But all of these Dem-held seats seem fairly competitive:
HD-10 (Wendy Gooditis, Leesburg)
HD-12 (Chris Hurst, Blacksburg)
HD-28 (Josh Cole, Fredericksburg/Stafford)
HD-40 (Dan Helmer, Centreville/Clifton)
HD-73 (Rodney Willett, Henrico)
HD-75 (Roz Tyler, Southside)
HD-83 (Nancy Guy, Virginia Beach)
HD-85 (Alex Askew, Virginia Beach)

All of them are held by freshman or sophomore incumbents. Given the state of the playing field, the GOP is virtually guaranteed a net gain.