Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Margaret Ewing the SNP MSP for Moray (and former M.P for the old East Dunbartonshire (based around Cumbernauld) and also Moray a few years later) has died of cancer. She was 60.

[afleitch]

Margaret Ewing the SNP MSP for Moray (and former M.P for the old East Dunbartonshire (based around Cumbernauld) and also Moray a few years later) has died of cancer. She was 60.

A damn shame. She was a fine and eloquent woman and had she bet Salmond for the leadership in 1990 could have gave the SNP a very differnt future.

It means that there will be a Scottish Parliamentary by-election for Moray.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It means that there will be a Scottish Parliamentary by-election for Moray.

Yes; I'll just set the thread up for that now...

[Harry Hayfield]

The following are my estimates of the 2003 Assembly Elections using the Martin Baxter method of calculating notional elections results:

Labour 29 constituencies + 0 regionals = 29 AM's
Plaid Cymru 6 constituencies + 6 regionals = 12 AM's
Conservatives 1 constituency + 11 regionals = 12 AM's
Liberal Democrats 3 constituencies + 3 regionals = 6 AM's
Forward Wales 1 constituency + 0 regionals = 1 AM

Labour short of an overall majority by 2

Changes of note:

Constituencies: Aberconwy notional Plaid Cymru win
Regionals: 1 Con gain from Plaid Cymru

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Non-partisan politics has ended in Powys; there are now four groups on the council. LibDems (18 seats), Labour (4 seats), Montgomeryshire Independents (28 seats) and another group of Independents expected to have 21 members.

[Harry Hayfield]

Yep, the last council not to have a party grouping system has a party grouping system (and has interesting implications for the control of the council)

Currently the council stands at:

Montgomeryshire Independents 28
Independents 21
Liberal Democrats 18
Labour 4

which means NOC (as opposed to the Ind win in 2004)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yep, the last council not to have a party grouping system has a party grouping system

Were it not for the fact that I lived for quite a few years in a local authority controlled by "Independents" I would almost think of this as a sad thing... but I have, so I don't...

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Maybe the council will now say which party holds which wards? I know Labour hold most of the Valley's wards north of Neath (and what idiot thought it a good idea to have them in the same local authority, well, the rest of Powys?) and I'm pretty sure Crickhowell is LibDem... I think they also do well in Newtown? I'm pretty sure the Tories used to hold the Dolforwyn ward, but lost it.

[Harry Hayfield]

That's simple (as I keep a close eye on Powys myself)

Conservative Councillors (0)

Labour Councillors (4)

Liberal Democrat Councillors (17)
Cllr Paul Ashton  St Mary
Cllr Garry Banks  Presteigne
Cllr Bryan Bufton St John
Cllr Leslie Davies  Disserth and Trecoed
Cllr James Gibson Watt  Hay
Cllr Kenneth Harris Knighton
Cllr Mervyn Kinsey Welshpool Gungrog
Cllr Gareth Morgan Llanidloes
Cllr John Morris Crickhowell
Cllr Richard Noyce  Newtown Llanllwchaiarn North
Cllr David Peter  Llandrindod Wells South
Cllr William Powell  Talgarth
Cllr Phil Pritchard Welshpool Castle
Cllr Kathryn Silk  Bwlch
Cllr Melanie Tunnicliffe Llangors
Cllr Richard Tyler Rhayader
Cllr Louis Williams Newtown East

Plaid Cymru (0)

Independents (36)
http://demserv.powys.gov.uk/english/members/mnalpha.htm

[minionofmidas]

That link doesn`t give members`parties, though.

[Harry Hayfield]

The link shows all councillors. If they are not listed in the post, then they are Independents.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, but there's two independent parties ... plus you didn`t list Labour's councillors.

[Harry Hayfield]

Here's something you don't see that other in Powys. A Conservative councillor:

Young Tory helps local hospice

Conservative Councillor Leo Harris has been elected Chairman of the Newtown Support Group of the Severn Valley Hospice. Along with the other NSG Committee members he will be working hard to raise money for the Hospice to provide care for seriously and terminally ill people.

Re the link to the councillors, if the name listed on that site isn't listed in the the previous postings then they are an Independent councillor. I can't find any listings for Labour councillors on the authority either

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The leader of Ceredigion County Council (for a decade; the longest in Wales) is resigning.
According to le Beeb he'd bbeen a councilelr for 45 yeasr

[afleitch]

Been playing about with stats and have compiled Labour's 'worst case scenario' based on the roughly double figure swings that party has been receiving in local, Holyrood and Westminster by-elections combined with local sentiment and suprise challengers

SNP GAINS

Western Isles from LAB
Gordon from LDEM (due to Salmond standing)
Aberdeen Central from LAB
Dundee West from LAB
Cumbernauld from LAB
Glasgow Govan from LAB
Paisley South from LAB
Cunninghame North from LAB
Kilmarnock and Loudon from LAB
Linlithgow from LAB
Livingstone from LAB

LIB GAINS

Glasgow Kelvin from LAB
Edinburgh Central from LAB

CON GAINS

Stirling from LAB
Renfrewshire West from LAB (Annabel Goldie the challenger)
Eastwood from LAB
Dumfries from LAB

SSP GAINS

Glasgow Pollock from LAB (Tommy Sheridan if he stands)

LAB DOWN 17
SNP UP 11
LIB UP 1
CON UP 4
SSP UP 1

Further possibilities of SNP gains include Hamilton South and East Kilbride where the % figures look difficult for the SNP, but the raw majorities are more favourable.

The Lib Dems are the most difficult to predict (will they get tarred with the same brush for being in the coalition or strip Labour of support?), but they could also do well in Greenock and in the other Edinburgh seats

[afleitch]

http://www.sundayherald.com/55552

Greens ready to support SNP government
By Paul Hutcheon, Scottish Political Editor

ALEX Salmond could be installed as First Minister and protected from votes of no confidence under plans being developed by the Scottish Greens.
Robin Harper’s party is drawing up a blueprint whereby the Greens would back the SNP leader to front the Scottish Executive but decline to take seats in his Cabinet.

They would also promise to vote for an SNP budget in exchange for guarantees on key environmental issues, such as nuclear power.

The “confidence-and-supply” model is one of the options being considered by the Greens as they prepare for the 2007 Holyrood elections.

Both they and the Nationalists opened talks earlier this year on the possibility of working together in a future coalition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Private polling stuff leaked to the Sunday Times...

Constituency: Lab 30%, SNP 29%, Lib 19%, Con 15%
Regional: Lab 27%, SNP 26%, Lib 21%, Con 14%

Take with the usual salt mine (ie; it's a leaked private poll in a Sunday paper. Also note that polls have historically exaggerated SNP support for some reason).

[afleitch]

Private polling stuff leaked to the Sunday Times...

Constituency: Lab 30%, SNP 29%, Lib 19%, Con 15%
Regional: Lab 27%, SNP 26%, Lib 21%, Con 14%

Take with the usual salt mine (ie; it's a leaked private poll in a Sunday paper. Also note that polls have historically exaggerated SNP support for some reason).

And underestimated Tory support in both 1999 and 2003. Having said that other polls, even breaking down the national polls do show Labour taking a bit of a thrashing.

If all LA by-elections are totalled up so far in 2006, Labour are down 13 points, The SNP down 1, Tories up 5.5 and the Libs up about 3. Labour support is going to fall and it could fall hard, but there is no guarantee the SNP will be the beneficiaries of it; if the Lib Dems take it, there will still be a LAB/LIB coalition, but the Lib Dems will want more of the cake.

[afleitch]

A rather tedious prediction here based on 2003- present council by-election results and taking into account Holyrood by-elections too, swinging the constituencies and doing the same in the regions and using d'Hondt...

Across the board, the SNP jump is just over 1% and Labours fall close to 9% - So here we go; its just for fun. I'll do it all over again based on the leaked opinon poll.
             
               C     R     Total  Change on 2003
Labour    31    5     36      -14
SNP         17   13    30      +3
Lib Dem   15   10    25      +8
Tory         8     13    21      +3
Green      0      9     9        +2
SSP          0      3     3        -3
Oth          2      2     4         0

Coalition Prospects MAJ 65

LAB+LIB = 61.  4 short
SNP+LIB+GRE = 64. 1 short + 1 nationalist MSP (Margo) 65

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What doth thee make of the almost complete apparent demise of the SSP in recent days?

[afleitch]

What doth thee make of the almost complete apparent demise of the SSP in recent days?

The SSP has said it isn't going to put up (waste money on) constituency voted and concentrate on the regions, except in a few key seats. In some constituncies the SSP received a substantial vote share and it's where this vote goes if they don't run again that is the key. If it goes back to Labour it will help them of course. If it fragments it will hurt them with in seats that swing against them. If most of the bloc shift to the SNP it will be a big disaster for Labour.

The polls are not picking up what exactly is happening, but 2004 euros, 2005 GE, local by-elections and constituency by-elections are seeing the SSP hit the earth with a bump. Down 0.4 in Livingston and 0.8 in Dunfermline. This is from a low starting point and a poor result in 2005. As for Holyrood they didn't field a candidate in Moray and in Cathcart they fell a whopping 7.33

Using my fun but pointless figures, they would win 3 list seats. 1 in Central Scotland and 2 in Glasgow. This would happen with even a tiny % drop

[afleitch]

Doing the whole thing over again..but using all the 2005 plus the 2006 results to get better shares of the vote and parts of the country to work with- again- just for fun.

The previous prediction was based on all data from May 2003 onwards; now we have narrowed it down to 2005-06
             
               C     R     Total  Change on 2003
Labour    27    5     32      -18
SNP         24    8     32      +5
Lib Dem  15    9      24      +7
Tory         5     18    23      +5
Green      0     11    11      +4
SSP          0      3     3        -3
Oth          2      2     4         0

Coalition Prospects MAJ 65

LAB+LIB = 56.  9 short
SNP+LIB+GRE = 67. Majority of 2

[afleitch]

And again- based solely on 2006 figures- so while this is recent, we aren't yet halfway through the year
             
               C     R     Total  Change on 2003
Labour    28     3    31      -19
SNP         19   10    29      +2
Lib Dem  16      9    25      +8
Tory          8     18   26      +8
Green      0     10    10      +3
SSP          0      4      4       -2
Oth          2      2     4         0

The big winners would be the Conservatives and the Liberals with 8 gains each. The SNP would only be up 2 despite doing well at constituency level. The Greens would be up 3 and the SSP would be down 2. Labour would be down a remarkable 19 seats, but could form a majority coalition with the aid of the Lib Dems and the Greens but at the expense of loosing a host of cabinet positions

[minionofmidas]

Who are the Others elected in this?

[afleitch]

Who are the Others elected in this?

2 independents from the constituencies- Dr Jean Turner and Dennis Canavan

1 from the list, Margo Macdonald and a member from the Senior Citizens Unity Party, John Swinburne.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Blaenau Gwent polls have been moved (sort of) to the Blaenau Gwent by-election thread.

Thanks to Harry for posting them