Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Starting to think it could be Truss. Mourdant seemed to be ascending, but I think she might be losing momentum. Sunak may prove to have been a paper tiger. We’ll see come tomorrow who gets eliminated between Truss and Mourdant. Leaning towards Mourdant getting cut.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

So Liz Truss will likely be the next PM, I'm just wondering if she flops hard enough will the Tories try to change leader again before the next election. Two years can be a long time.

Boris 2: Electoral Boogaloo

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

I assume they'll be calling the election the last possible day?

I’m figuring they’ll at least wait until after the new boundaries go into effect. That’s sometime in 2023 iirc.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

One small wrinkle to the contest is the weirdness going on with Lord Cruddas' petition, hosted on the Conservative Post website. The petition is a demand from Conservative Party members for Johnson to be included on the ballot - or for a concurrent vote asking for members' confidence in Johnson to be tested.

None of this is actually feasible under the party constitution (which explicitly bars a leader running in the race caused by their resignation), barring a serious rewrite of the rules. But it's doing big numbers in some niche corners of the internet, and the Telegraph's Christopher Hope seems to have gone all-out on boosting the story at every chance he gets. As of this evening, the petition has reached 10,000 signatures, around 5% of the total party membership.

But, you ask, how is this verifiable? The petition requires everyone who signs it to include their Conservative Party membership number. Which sounds pretty solid, until you read the fine-print on the website:

We want to make sure this is completed by Conservative Party members only, and the best way to do this is by asking for your membership number so we can validate your membership status. If you don't know your membership number enter '0' for now and provide your address below.

So, there's a decent chance this thing could all be astroturfed. But if Johnson-appointed peers and the Telegraph & Express keep breathlessly reporting it, I'd expect it'll keep coming up for a while, especially if it 'reaches' 10 or 15% of the party membership.

Doing my part to save the Mother Country

Which Tory member name did you use, Haywood Jablowme or Amanda Hugginkiss?

I hope it was my favourite Mike Oxlong.

I put Boris Johnson, address 10 Downing St

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Labour Party predicts double-digit poll bounce for new PM Truss

I just know the sickos will freak out about this, Starmer just needs to persevere and he should be in a great position to win the next general election.

This is obvious, everyone gets a honeymoon bounce - even Kim Campbell got a honeymoon bounce. Truss is unlikeable & dogmatic enough that it’ll wear off quickly - though the article isn’t wrong, Truss’s best (I’d say only) chance to get a win is to call a snap election.

There’s “damning by faint praise” and then there’s this. Oof.