Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Joe Republic]

Moot point now, but hypothetically what would have happened if Mordaunt and Truss had tied?

Also:

I wonder if Mordaunt's gaffe on Twitter this morning might have harmed her chances at all.

What was this?

[Conservatopia]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

[Torrain]

I wonder if Mordaunt's gaffe on Twitter this morning might have harmed her chances at all.

What was this?

Mordaunt retweeted an op-ed in the Telegraph which outright stated that if MPs voted for a Truss-Sunak runoff, they’d murder the party. Whether you think that’s a viable opinion or not, it was viewed as a major faux-pas - and she deleted it almost immediately.

[brucejoel99]

Moot point now, but hypothetically what would have happened if Mordaunt and Truss had tied?

An immediate re-vote in which the tie presumably wouldn't repeat. If it did, then the 1922 would figure something out.

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

*918 if she delays it out 'til the last Thurs. possible, but don't discount the possibility that she (& the party) simply learned nothing about gambling from Cameron, May, & BoJo (given that each successor has proven incapable of not repeating the predecessor's mistakes) & so brings forward an emergency budget to cut taxes & thus aDdReSs ThE cOsT-oF-lIvInG cRiSiS, earning herself enough of a short-term bump in the polls to convince her to call a snap election no later than the spring.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

I assume they'll be calling the election the last possible day?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

I assume they'll be calling the election the last possible day?

I’m figuring they’ll at least wait until after the new boundaries go into effect. That’s sometime in 2023 iirc.

[brucejoel99]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

I assume they'll be calling the election the last possible day?

I’m figuring they’ll at least wait until after the new boundaries go into effect. That’s sometime in 2023 iirc.

July 1st, so any election(s) called/necessitated before then would be the last held on the old 2019/17/15/10 boundaries.

[Utah Neolib]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

“The eelction is 915 days away,Labor is leading, Whoever Leader is doesn’t change,New Labor can rebuild red wall, Starmer is poplar, LABOR WAVE” - British Olakwandi
    

[CityofSinners]

I think Sunak is the clearly better candidate for the Tories to win in 2024. Even with all his baggage.
My reason for that is not mainly the current polling or Truss lack of charisma and public speaking skills. The election is still way off and voters have short memories.

My main reason is that I the way Truss is running her campaign and her backers, she is ill-equipped to deal with all the crisis she will inherit once in office.

Cost of living crisis, strikes and NHS backlogs are the immediate concerns with the NI bill, low growth and a weak currency following after.
Tax cuts won't deal with any of that. Neither would help a trade war with the EU help with growth or re-election.

There will be a point where Truss is caught between the campaign she ran plus the expectations of her right-wing supporters and the reality. Can she stand up to the ERG and risks discontent in the party or will she make decisions that will come back later to haunt her?

Large unfunded taxcuts are more dangerous with high inflation and a weak currency then usual.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I've seen people criticize Liz Truss for having been a radical Lib Dem, but they don't mention that she was a teenager at the time.    (Here's a video from then)

https://twitter.com/stewartmaclean/status/1549876085352980482?s=20&t=KYbKARR...

[brucejoel99]

I've seen people criticize Liz Truss for having been a radical Lib Dem, but they don't mention that she was a teenager at the time.    (Here's a video from then)

https://twitter.com/stewartmaclean/status/1549876085352980482?s=20&t=KYbKARRy4iQP5Q74pd8cPQ

Tbf, I don't think that she's really being criticized by anybody for merely having been a radical Lib Dem once upon a time. After all, she's literally the unity candidate in this contest of the wing of the party that'd be most expected to blow a gasket over something like that. What her time as a Lib Dem is being used to further, though, is the implication that she's nothing but a vapid weathervane without a single principle in her soul beyond doing whatever she needs to do to get herself ahead.

[YL]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

I assume they'll be calling the election the last possible day?

I’m figuring they’ll at least wait until after the new boundaries go into effect. That’s sometime in 2023 iirc.

The new boundaries may not help them very much: some of the new seats being created in the South now look like they could be marginal with the Lib Dems, and their creation can make more urban seats nearby look more vulnerable.  I don’t think they’ll be enough of a factor to stop the new leader calling an election if polling were to be favourable and they felt inclined to do anyway.

On current polling it doesn’t look like they’ll get enough of a honeymoon to consider it; that could change, but the leadership election seems to me (admittedly an “ABC” type who was never going to vote for them regardless of leader) to have shown the party in a pretty bad light.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's also the question of what an election would be for. A four year term is fairly normal because by that point a normal government will have delivered its manifesto. The pandemic and general legislative disorganisation and dilatoriness means that's very much not the case, they've got few accomplishments to run on and the major purpose for going early would be to ride a temporary wave of popularity. As we saw in 2017, the electorate doesn't always love that.

[JimJamUK]

Inflation is currently 10% and we’re heading towards a recession. If you want to win the election, you call it as late as possible hoping for a better economy (both because people vote on current economic conditions, but also they would be able to make the argument that things are getting better, don’t risk Labour buggering it up etc).

[TheTide]

Inflation is currently 10% and we’re heading towards a recession. If you want to win the election, you call it as late as possible hoping for a better economy (both because people vote on current economic conditions, but also they would be able to make the argument that things are getting better, don’t risk Labour buggering it up etc).

There's risks in whatever option they take. Things could be worse in 2024. If the honeymoon bounce is sufficient to bring them level pegging by about the end of this year or early next year hen I'd go for a snap election. If they lose it could be a narrower loss than would be the case in 2024 and it would only shorten the tenure of the government by about a year to eighteen months, and they could be leaving a lot of the difficult crap (both policy and unpopularity) to Labour.

In the case of Theresa May, she actually waited too long, if anything, to call an election. An autumn 2016 election would have seemed less unnecessary and the whole "I need a mandate" would have been compelling.

[Angel of Death]

"Radical Lib Dem" sounds like an oxymoron.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not just saying this because I support Liz, but seriously, tone down the predictions of wipeout for the Tories. We can probably judge that Liz is less popular amongst the public than Rishi but really we can't predict the next election this far out. The public isn't that familiar with any of the candidates and there's two years to go - a lot could change.

At the risk of sounding like Olawakandi: The election is 915 days away.

I assume they'll be calling the election the last possible day?

I’m figuring they’ll at least wait until after the new boundaries go into effect. That’s sometime in 2023 iirc.

The new boundaries may not help them very much: some of the new seats being created in the South now look like they could be marginal with the Lib Dems, and their creation can make more urban seats nearby look more vulnerable.  I don’t think they’ll be enough of a factor to stop the new leader calling an election if polling were to be favourable and they felt inclined to do anyway.

Best estimates are that the new boundaries might have upped the Tory majority to approaching 100 (as opposed to the actual 80) had they been in place at the last GE. That maybe isn't something that should override all other considerations, but equally its not nothing either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One issue will be what the finished seats actually look like. If sufficient Conservative MPs do not like them...

(and, yes, yes, automatic implementation of etc... but Rule One of the British Constitution is that Parliament Can Do What It Likes).

[IceAgeComing]

There won't be a snap election: the May thing will overshadow that one for a long time (the Johnson thing was genuinely a Parliament that could not decide anything on the most fundamental issue other than it didn't like the government so that's a genuine reason to go to the country again) plus remember: in September the new leader enters office: in October domestic energy bills will rise over 60% (after a 53% rise in March and a substantial rise last October) which will fuel even more inflation and there's a genuine worry that the European gas market (which the UK is a core part of: we have zero domestic gas storage so rely on exporting LNG to Europe during the summer months and drawing that back during the winter plus also Ireland gets their gas from the UK) might end up running out of all reserves during the winter while would force remarkable demand reductions which would hit businesses and people - that's an insane time to even contemplate holding an election in. Winter 2023/24 isn't likely to be that great either if the causes of this stuff carry on so that isn't an option either, really.

They could go to January 2025 if they wanted to but they won't unless things are really bad: winter elections are historically very unusual. I assume the government have May 2024 pencilled in at this point but if they are well behind and they think things might improve they'll try a winter 2024/25 campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

November 2024 might be a genuine possibility if forced to go (almost) full term.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though if they're going for an election in late 2024 then that means they're either running a save the furniture campaign or just hoping something will turn up.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I actually feel pretty bad for Mordaunt. She was small-c conservative and patriotic in a very old-school unideological way ("love the Union Flag, love the Royal Navy, love queueing in drippy weather, simple as")--breathtakingly insubstantial, but considering how bad Tory ideology is on substance, that's not the worst thing to be. But her colleagues turned out to want slick hypermodern ideologues after all.

[Conservatopia]

Truss will be hugely popular - after all, whether you're a liberal, a Brexiteer, a republican, a free-trader or a culture warrior, she's been on your side at some point.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I actually feel pretty bad for Mordaunt. She was small-c conservative and patriotic in a very old-school unideological way ("love the Union Flag, love the Royal Navy, love queueing in drippy weather, simple as")--breathtakingly insubstantial, but considering how bad Tory ideology is on substance, that's not the worst thing to be. But her colleagues turned out to want slick hypermodern ideologues after all.

In some ways maybe but these quotes from her book don't come across as conservative in that sense:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1547536677958258689?s=20&t=at_aRN-d-B...

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1547537123858948097?s=20&t=at_aRN-d-B...

[Lumine]

From the point of view of political malpractice alone - and leaving aside the ethical quagmire - the Conservatives deserve to lose the next election by making it Truss v. Sunak when they are in dire need for a reset.

I shudder to think how mediocre the next Cabinet is going to be - particularly under Truss - even compared to the current one.