Mass protests in Kazakhstan

[Conservatopia]

Fuel price hikes apparently the immediate trigger for all this.

Are you thinking what I'm thinking?

[CumbrianLefty]

Dunno, what are you thinking?

[compucomp]

EU statement, which is quite a different tone to the reaction to Belarus. Probably the US will position itself more strongly on the side of the protesters.

In light of the ongoing protests in Kazakhstan linked primarily to the recent doubling in price of liquefied petroleum gas, the European Union is following closely developments.

We call on all concerned to act with responsibility and restraint and to refrain from actions that could lead to further escalation of violence. While recognising the right to peaceful demonstration, the European Union expects that they remain non-violent and avoid any incitement to violence. The European Union also calls upon authorities to respect the fundamental right to peaceful protest and proportionality in the use of force when defending its legitimate security interests, and to uphold its international commitments.

Kazakhstan is an important partner for the European Union. In the framework of the European Union-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, we count on Kazakhstan to uphold its commitments, including freedom of the press and access to information online and offline.

The European Union encourages a peaceful resolution of the situation through inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders and respect for the fundamental rights of citizens.

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/109425/kazakhstan-statement-spokesperson-latest-developments_en

The US praising the insurrection in Kazakhstan on Jan. 6 would be quite the display of the hypocrisy and shamelessness of American foreign policy.

Except, you know, those people were protesting the fact that democracy was doing its thing, while here they're revolting against the very lack of it, so no, it's not really the same.

LMAO, still going on about "democracy". It's a fact that American democracy produced President Donald Trump and the total carnage of the last 4 years, with the exclamation point on 1/6/2021. American democracy is now responsible for Mike Pompeo saying to the world "there will be a seamless transition to a second Trump administration". Do you seriously think you can just say "America is Back" and sweep that away like it didn't happen? That the rest of the world will just choose to forget about it?

[Hnv1]

Dunno, what are you thinking?

MI5 has joined the discussion

[2952-0-0]

LMAO, still going on about "democracy". It's a fact that American democracy produced President Donald Trump and the total carnage of the last 4 years, with the exclamation point on 1/6/2021. American democracy is now responsible for Mike Pompeo saying to the world "there will be a seamless transition to a second Trump administration". Do you seriously think you can just say "America is Back" and sweep that away like it didn't happen? That the rest of the world will just choose to forget about it?

Whatever its flaws, it allows you to post this without fear of a knock on the door. No one enjoys that freedom in countries like Kazakhstan, not even the regime elite and insiders.

[Helsinkian]

During the Nagorno-Karabakh war I had sympathized with the Armenians. But seeing how Armenia is now sending troops to quash the people of Kazakhstan, it's getting much harder to support them anymore. Do they think that it's only the people of Artsakh that deserve liberty, and not the people of Almaty?

[Former President tack50]

Between this and the situation in Ucraine, can someone explain to me why Russia is so agressive lately?

[Helsinkian]

Has anyone asked Oliver Stone about how things ended up? He recently made an eight-hour documentary about Nazarbayev and gave him credit for "not turning it [Kazakhstan] into a trash heap like Ukraine".

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1414307685818900484

Another quote from the Guardian interview:

"“I’m not going to come over and lecture these people about how to run their country and how to run a democracy,” said Stone, adding that he viewed Nazarbayev as something of a “tribal chief” managing a difficult country. “It doesn’t work. Democracy barely works in the US.”"

[😥]

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1479137850226622467?t=qCUnj1GMPw3HIWYAADg34g...

[crals]

During the Nagorno-Karabakh war I had sympathized with the Armenians. But seeing how Armenia is now sending troops to quash the people of Kazakhstan, it's getting much harder to support them anymore. Do they think that it's only the people of Artsakh that deserve liberty, and not the people of Almaty?

I don't think this was Armenia's idea

[compucomp]

LMAO, still going on about "democracy". It's a fact that American democracy produced President Donald Trump and the total carnage of the last 4 years, with the exclamation point on 1/6/2021. American democracy is now responsible for Mike Pompeo saying to the world "there will be a seamless transition to a second Trump administration". Do you seriously think you can just say "America is Back" and sweep that away like it didn't happen? That the rest of the world will just choose to forget about it?

Whatever its flaws, it allows you to post this without fear of a knock on the door. No one enjoys that freedom in countries like Kazakhstan, not even the regime elite and insiders.

Ah yes, "free speech". The tool that Trump skillfully used to spread and amplify his lies and misinformation that poisoned American politics and led directly to 1/6/2021. The tool that is skillfully being used today by anti-vax numbskulls to amplify lies and nonsense against the vaccine. You love free speech so much that you were all asking why the FBI didn't arrest the Trumpists before 1/6/2021 when they were broadcasting their intentions on social media, and are now feverishly cheering the "free market censorship" of Facebook and Twitter. So free speech should be restricted against the Trumpists and anti-vaxxers because you disagree with them, but the insurrection over in Kazakhstan, oh no, you agree with them so they should have all free speech rights?

[Helsinkian]

During the Nagorno-Karabakh war I had sympathized with the Armenians. But seeing how Armenia is now sending troops to quash the people of Kazakhstan, it's getting much harder to support them anymore. Do they think that it's only the people of Artsakh that deserve liberty, and not the people of Almaty?

I don't think this was Armenia's idea

They are going along with it. Presumably to please Russia so Russia would help them against Azerbaijan -- even though they did not help in the last war.

[DavidB.]

During the Nagorno-Karabakh war I had sympathized with the Armenians. But seeing how Armenia is now sending troops to quash the people of Kazakhstan, it's getting much harder to support them anymore. Do they think that it's only the people of Artsakh that deserve liberty, and not the people of Almaty?

I don't think this was Armenia's idea

They are going along with it. Presumably to please Russia so Russia would help them against Azerbaijan -- even though they did not help in the last war.

Armenia is so completely dependent on Russia in all regards that you can legitimately question how much of a sovereign state it (still) is.

And while Russia indeed did not help Armenia as much as Yerevan would have liked in the last war, they could sure help Azerbaijan a lot more than the last time in the next war if Pashinyan doesn't do exactly what Moscow wants.

[Blair]

That was actually my first thought; the treatment of Armenia was awful & there are obviously much bigger issues at play but still it stinks- including I imagine for those with families who died.

[Blair]

This does support the old joke about the Warsaw Pact only ever declaring war on its own members.

[StateBoiler]

During the Nagorno-Karabakh war I had sympathized with the Armenians. But seeing how Armenia is now sending troops to quash the people of Kazakhstan, it's getting much harder to support them anymore. Do they think that it's only the people of Artsakh that deserve liberty, and not the people of Almaty?

Armenians are tied to the hip of Russia. Always have been. The Azeris in turn are tied to the hip of Turkey.

Why Armenians have this great reputation I have no idea other than their diaspora in this country heavily donate to Democratic Party politicians and organizations.

[jaichind]

This entire affair seems like a power struggle between Prez Tokayev and former Prez Nazarbayev.  Nazarbayev pretty much been ousted from all the security positions he held and now Tokayev has complete control.  Tokayev also seems to have selected a much more pro-Russia line as he becomes the single top dog.

[2952-0-0]

Armenia is so completely dependent on Russia in all regards that you can legitimately question how much of a sovereign state it (still) is.

And while Russia indeed did not help Armenia as much as Yerevan would have liked in the last war, they could sure help Azerbaijan a lot more than the last time in the next war if Pashinyan doesn't do exactly what Moscow wants.

But didn't Moscow emerge as the biggest loser in that war? Azerbaijan entirely routed Armenia thanks to Turkish drones, and Russian-made Armenian anti-air missiles were entirely useless. That was a huge blow to Russia's ability to market its weapons. And, how exactly does turning Armenia into a client state augment Moscow's political power? It has little in resources, or real estate, or anything of value. If Turkey invaded Armenia tomorrow "to finish the job", then there's zero in it for Putin to intervene.

Ah yes, "free speech". The tool that Trump skillfully used to spread and amplify his lies and misinformation that poisoned American politics and led directly to 1/6/2021. The tool that is skillfully being used today by anti-vax numbskulls to amplify lies and nonsense against the vaccine. You love free speech so much that you were all asking why the FBI didn't arrest the Trumpists before 1/6/2021 when they were broadcasting their intentions on social media, and are now feverishly cheering the "free market censorship" of Facebook and Twitter. So free speech should be restricted against the Trumpists and anti-vaxxers because you disagree with them, but the insurrection over in Kazakhstan, oh no, you agree with them so they should have all free speech rights?

"X was misused to cause trouble, therefore we're better off without X."

In any case, if US democracy led to January 6, then I guess Kazakhstani democracy (leader for life for the nation's entire existence) is even more of a failure, since it's now dependent on foreign troops to prop it up.

[DavidB.]

Armenia is so completely dependent on Russia in all regards that you can legitimately question how much of a sovereign state it (still) is.

And while Russia indeed did not help Armenia as much as Yerevan would have liked in the last war, they could sure help Azerbaijan a lot more than the last time in the next war if Pashinyan doesn't do exactly what Moscow wants.

But didn't Moscow emerge as the biggest loser in that war? Azerbaijan entirely routed Armenia thanks to Turkish drones, and Russian-made Armenian anti-air missiles were entirely useless. That was a huge blow to Russia's ability to market its weapons. And, how exactly does turning Armenia into a client state augment Moscow's political power? It has little in resources, or real estate, or anything of value. If Turkey invaded Armenia tomorrow "to finish the job", then there's zero in it for Putin to intervene.

It isn't generally considered this way, no. It was most of all a very painful blow to Armenia, who had been "living above their means" in a certain way. At some point Azerbaijan was always going to take back considerable amounts of land in Nagorno-Karabakh. But Armenia had been completely in denial about it, mostly due to patriotism blinding them to the obvious reality that Armenia's military wasn't worth much while Azerbaijan had been investing in high tech stuff for years and years. It's a miracle Pashinyan - who ironically came to power due to a revolution on the streets... -   is still in power. As for Russia, they increased their power in Armenia + now have boots on the ground in the region to "protect the ceasefire agreement" - and we all know what leverage comes with these boots on the ground.

And if Turkey entered tomorrow to "finish the job" (as you state it), I think Putin would absolutely intervene - the main reason the former hasn't happened yet is because Russia will not allow it. Maintaining stability and a balance of power in the Caucasus is almost the main driver of Russia's foreign policy, and Armenia is Russia's only fully reliable partner in the region (with AZB being more oriented towards Turkey and GEO obviously maintaining a very frosty relationship with Moscow).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This entire affair seems like a power struggle between Prez Tokayev and former Prez Nazarbayev.  Nazarbayev pretty much been ousted from all the security positions he held and now Tokayev has complete control.  Tokayev also seems to have selected a much more pro-Russia line as he becomes the single top dog.

This is one of the plausible explanations.

I doubt any major foreign powers are responsible. Kazakhstan's stability is critical for the Russian economy and while Nazarbayev has always maintained some independence from Moscow there's no way Putin would risk a disruption in uranium access over relatively minor differences, especially when he's busy posturing around Belarus and Ukraine.

China theoretically could stand to improve its influence in the region, but any serious unrest would risk the entire Belt and Road. China also has key economic ties with Kazakhstan and the Kazakh government has kept fairly tight control over their border. There's no way they'd risk creating a warzone and potential Uighur insurgent camps on the border.

Even the US and EU don't have much interest in this, as evidenced by the weak EU declaration and the lack of American endorsement. That American news outlets took so long to take notice is another clue, since in any classic colour revolution they'd be tipped off to cover the "peaceful protests" for at least a few days in advance. While would be hilarious for the Biden to endorse storming and burning government buildings in Kazakhstan on "Deadly Capitol Terrorist Attack Day" that probably isn't the actual issue. More relevant to Joe is the fact that instability in Kazakhstan means less oil and gas production: workers are already going on strike even without militants in technicals showing up. Biden isn't going to push up gas prices and shoot himself in the foot for the midterms just to piss off Putin.

So "major power backed coup" can be ruled out. Furthermore, while the first few days had huge crowds of protesters, the seizure and burning of key resources (police stations, airports, government buildings, weapons depots) by a relatively small number of well prepared people seems more reminiscent of a coup than a popular uprising, even if it happened to coincide with an organic uprising. The lack of resistance from security forces is also interesting; for all the talk of "the police/military joining the people" I'll just point out that 10 years ago they had no problem massacring protesters in Zhanaozen.

So clearly there was an external motivation to give up besides love of their people or whatever. It wasn't that they were rationally convinced by the protesters demands because they inexplicably don't seem to have any. One explanation is simply that they were overwhelmed and gave up from fear, which is entirely possible. Another, if you're right in that this is some kind of internal power struggle, is that they were working for or paid off by whichever faction the organized gunmen are aligned with.

This could also be a conflict between clans. Kazakhs are divided between three tribal alliances/hordes called Zhuz and for the past several decades power has been concentrated among members of the Senior Zhuz. It's not hard to imagine the other two (particularly the Junior Zhuz, where they get cut out of the profits of the oil and gas disproportionately concentrated in their land) taking advantage of dissatisfaction with high gas prices to rise up simultaneously. That would explain the high level of organization and the speed with which the military and police surrendered as well as the high concentration of protests in the western provinces.

On a lighter note, a Dagestani representative called for Kazakhstan to be annexed to Russia, because "the Orda must be reunited"

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1479067220550594563

[StateBoiler]

Armenia is so completely dependent on Russia in all regards that you can legitimately question how much of a sovereign state it (still) is.

And while Russia indeed did not help Armenia as much as Yerevan would have liked in the last war, they could sure help Azerbaijan a lot more than the last time in the next war if Pashinyan doesn't do exactly what Moscow wants.

But didn't Moscow emerge as the biggest loser in that war? Azerbaijan entirely routed Armenia thanks to Turkish drones, and Russian-made Armenian anti-air missiles were entirely useless. That was a huge blow to Russia's ability to market its weapons. And, how exactly does turning Armenia into a client state augment Moscow's political power? It has little in resources, or real estate, or anything of value. If Turkey invaded Armenia tomorrow "to finish the job", then there's zero in it for Putin to intervene.

Hell no. Yeah, the Turkish/Israeli drones the Azeris used completely routed the Armenians. In some cases, Armenians were going up to fight and the drones blew up the transports before they got there, which is depressing if you think about it. Armenia asked for help and Russia said they'd help when the conflict reached internationally-recognized Armenian borders, which was a way of screwing over Armenia while being internationally responsible (because like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Turkish Cyprus, Transnistria, etc., Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh "does not exist" and that land is officially recognized as Azeri, and Azerbaijan never had intention of invading Armenia proper). Meanwhile, Armenians accept defeat and the Russians come in to broker peace, whereby they are the peacekeepers keeping the peace on the vital road connecting what remains of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.

-So their technology, yes, did not perform well, but it did not perform well in a war against an ally instead of a war against Russia, so they can make improvements while not costing their own military in terms of troops or equipment.
-They increased their soft power in Azerbaijan/Armenia via controlling an important transportation artery.
-As can be seen here, Armenia are still their ally.

Armenia clearly lost. Azerbaijan clearly won. It was an unspoken win of sorts for Turkish and Israeli military equipment. And Russia increased their soft power on the ground.

[PSOL]

The Kazakh puppet and his family have fled to Russia

[compucomp]

The Kazakh puppet and his family have fled to Russia

Source?

[😥]

https://twitter.com/jardemalie/status/1479189698148896768?t=_0qa57rVJC3zPHduxRj84g&s=19

If this is true and their deportation does take place (the SSU has denied it), it will be another confirmation that Ermak and Zelensky are working for the Kremlin.

[MATTROSE94]

During the Nagorno-Karabakh war I had sympathized with the Armenians. But seeing how Armenia is now sending troops to quash the people of Kazakhstan, it's getting much harder to support them anymore. Do they think that it's only the people of Artsakh that deserve liberty, and not the people of Almaty?

Armenians are tied to the hip of Russia. Always have been. The Azeris in turn are tied to the hip of Turkey.

Why Armenians have this great reputation I have no idea other than their diaspora in this country heavily donate to Democratic Party politicians and organizations.

Most Armenians I know are actually big MAGA supporters due to anti-Muslim sentiment.