Mass protests in Kazakhstan

[😥]

According to unofficial data (official figures are not reliable)

No doubt, but are unofficial ones any more so?

Of course, no one can estimate the exact number of victims now, and the Kazakh authorities are significantly underestimating and will underestimate the number of victims. It is also very likely that this unofficial data is not entirely true, but it is completely more accurate than the official one.

[Storr]

Kassim Massimov, the former head of Kazakhstan's National Security Committee (the successor agency to the soviet-era KGB, at least Kazakhstan renamed it unlike Belarus) and two time Prime Minister under President Nazarbayev, after being fired by President Tokayev on Wednesday, was arrested on "suspicion of treason" today [Saturday]. This comes after Tokayev's speech Friday claiming organs of the state had "slept through" preparations by instigators to launch "attacks" on Almaty and Kazakhstan as a whole. The NSC stated other unnamed government officials were also arrested.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstan-detains-ex-security-chief-crisis-convulses-nation-2022-01-08/

[jaichind]

Seems like the biggest loser if Kazakhstan was forced into common price-setting with Russia would be China

https://twitter.com/nivayau/status/1479021280384929792

That could be.  Still, I think from a strategic point of view PRC would most likely prioritize access over price.  Another priority for the PRC would be the Uyghur insurgency.  The Uyghur insurgency clearly has dissipated over the last 15 years.  Part of the reason why would be the support and help of the Central Asian stans.  This is not easy as most of the Central Asian stans (other than Tajikistan ) are really just Turks.  So it goes against their DNA to back PRC in shutting down the Uyghur insurgency.    My understanding is that years ago the PRC and Russia made an agreement that in return for Russia support on the Taiwan issue in case it comes to a military conflict the PRC has accepted that Kazakhstan belongs to the Russian sphere of influence.   So the PRC would naturally support Russia getting involved to prevent an unstable Kazakhstan even if that might mean higher gas prices.   The alternative would be a haven for the  Uyghur insurgency which over the last decade is clearly on the wane.

[Lord Halifax]

Another priority for the PRC would be the Uyghur insurgency.  The Uyghur insurgency clearly has dissipated over the last 15 years.  Part of the reason why would be the support and help of the Central Asian stans.  This is not easy as most of the Central Asian stans (other than Tajikistan ) are really just Turks.  So it goes against their DNA to back PRC in shutting down the Uyghur insurgency.   

Saying that all Turkic speaking peoples are "really just Turks" is as silly and meaningless as saying all Germanic speaking peoples are "really just Germans". 

[PSOL]

Tengiz oilfield workers gain a 50% pay raise, ending their strike

The Tengiz oilfield in Western Kazakhstan where these protests first erupted is 50% owned and operated by Chevron and Shell.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1480811190616043524

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1480811190616043524

But I thought Blinken said the Russians will never leave.  I know, I am sure the Russians will leave behind a large contingent of paid consultants that will be an occupation by proxy.