Mass protests in Kazakhstan
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Author Topic: Mass protests in Kazakhstan  (Read 4054 times)
Crumpets
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« on: January 04, 2022, 12:57:38 PM »
These are ostensibly about gas prices, but there are a lot of underlying issues as you might suspect from an authoritarian country that rarely sees protests. It'll be interesting to see if this takes the Kremlin's eye off Ukraine for a bit and if it's able to sustain for more than a couple days.
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andjey
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2022, 01:43:22 PM »
It's in Ukrainian, but video and photo in the tweets are very informative
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andjey
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2022, 02:06:00 PM »
Agree with Sergej here
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Crumpets
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2022, 02:29:23 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2022, 03:23:46 PM by Crumpets »
One thing that I don't know (and I don't know anyone knows for sure outside of the senior levels of the Kazakh government) is just what the power breakdown is of who is leading Kazakhstan now. Does 81-year old "retired" Nazerbayev still have an iron fist with Tokayev as a 100% figurehead, or is he more just an unquestioned guide for the government who rules when he wants and is on the sidelines for most day-to-day stuff? Likewise, do Tokayev and Nazarbayev actively fear/love Putin to the extent they'd allow Russia to make them an effective puppet to save their own jobs, or are they Kazakh nationalists through and through who will stand up to Russia to preserve their legitimacy, if not necessarily their power.

Personally, if I were Tokayev, I would see a clear path to consolidating control by throwing Nazerbayev under the bus, telling Putin "don't worry, I've got this," and then cracking down on protests by saying "Nazerbayev is out, if you're still complaining, you just want to destroy Kazakhstan," but I don't know if he has the power to actually do that.
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2022, 03:58:23 PM »
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2022, 04:04:28 PM »
Tokayev addressed the citizens in Russian language, the security forces are giving the command to disperse the protesters also in Russian. In my opinion, Tokayev/Nazarbayev is more and more likely to take the pro-Putin side. In this case, even the introduction of Russian troops is possible.

I feel that the situation in Kazakhstan is likely to end in much the same way as the situation in Belarus, and Kazakhstan will become a Russian vassal.
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andjey
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2022, 04:20:42 PM »
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DavidB.
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2022, 06:33:51 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2022, 06:43:44 PM by DavidB. »
An important difference with Belarus is that Kazakhstan's linkages to the West are weaker; the government will be able to violently crack down on protests more easily, with much less attention being paid by the EU and the remainder of the West. Belarus  is culturally more European, actually borders three EU countries who care a lot (for both geopolitical/security and "solidarity with our neighbors' local population" reasons), and has an internet-savvy population that is, to a certain extent, interested in more democracy. Kazakhstan is much farther away and simply less European. All of this means protests are much less likely to succeed in toppling the government and the government is likely to get the situation under control sooner or later.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2022, 02:31:16 AM »
Prime minister has resigned, Tokayev appoints deputy PM as interim replacement.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2022, 06:49:21 AM »
Time to rewrite my statement of purpose. Again.
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andjey
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2022, 08:20:06 AM »
Tokayev made an appeal. He said Nazarbayev was stepping down as chairman of the Security Council. Now Tokayev himself holds this position. That is, the requirement of "Get rid of the old man" is literally fulfilled.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2022, 08:27:23 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2022, 08:30:58 AM by Vaccinated Russian Bear »
Tokayev is from today the chairman of the Security Council. Instead of Nazarbayev.

They shut down mobile network in Almaty and Nur-Sultan. Internet is shut down in the whole country.


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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2022, 08:30:00 AM »
Fuel price hikes apparently the immediate trigger for all this.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2022, 09:39:10 AM »
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1ynJOZmAYOyGR

Twitter talk hosted by the Eurasia Center. Prof Murtazashvili is an expert on governance in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2022, 09:44:35 AM »
Quote from: Vaccinated Russian Bear on January 05, 2022, 08:27:23 AM
Tokayev is from today the chairman of the Security Council. Instead of Nazarbayev.

They shut down mobile network in Almaty and Nur-Sultan. Internet is shut down in the whole country.




That’ll definitely work and make people not mad.
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PSOL
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2022, 11:30:23 AM »
Excellent developments so far
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andjey
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2022, 11:55:37 AM »
Part of today's events
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urutzizu
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2022, 12:58:49 PM »
EU statement, which is quite a different tone to the reaction to Belarus. Probably the US will position itself more strongly on the side of the protesters.

Quote
In light of the ongoing protests in Kazakhstan linked primarily to the recent doubling in price of liquefied petroleum gas, the European Union is following closely developments.

We call on all concerned to act with responsibility and restraint and to refrain from actions that could lead to further escalation of violence. While recognising the right to peaceful demonstration, the European Union expects that they remain non-violent and avoid any incitement to violence. The European Union also calls upon authorities to respect the fundamental right to peaceful protest and proportionality in the use of force when defending its legitimate security interests, and to uphold its international commitments.

Kazakhstan is an important partner for the European Union. In the framework of the European Union-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, we count on Kazakhstan to uphold its commitments, including freedom of the press and access to information online and offline.

The European Union encourages a peaceful resolution of the situation through inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders and respect for the fundamental rights of citizens.

https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/109425/kazakhstan-statement-spokesperson-latest-developments_en
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PSOL
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2022, 02:09:12 PM »
Kazakh president asks for Russia to invade the country

This is escalating pretty quickly. It’s clear that the current government has no control over the situation and it is boiling to a point of an open revolution. Russia getting bogged down in the Donbass and the entirety of Kazakhstan is a pretty bad start to Russia’s geopolitical grip on the region and their own stability.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2022, 02:22:23 PM »
Quote from: PSOL on January 05, 2022, 02:09:12 PM
Kazakh president asks for Russia to invade the country

This is escalating pretty quickly. It’s clear that the current government has no control over the situation and it is boiling to a point of an open revolution. Russia getting bogged down in the Donbass and the entirety of Kazakhstan is a pretty bad start to Russia’s geopolitical grip on the region and their own stability.

An interesting point re: this scenario I came across this morning:
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andjey
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« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2022, 02:46:56 PM »


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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2022, 02:59:40 PM »
Seems like Russia's got to let one thing go for now, Donbass or Kazakhstan
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PSOL
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« Reply #22 on: January 05, 2022, 03:04:26 PM »
KKE solidarity statement to the striking workers of Kazakhstan

The Socialist Movement and Communist Party are both involved in the workers revolt, as are the pro-western liberals rallying behind those apart of Billionaire Mukhtar Ablyazov’s Democratic Choice organization and Oyan, Qazaqstan. Kazakh conservatives rallying behind the myriad of anti-government business associations and ethnonationalist organizations will probably try and insert themselves in later.

Quote from: WB #NoToJo on January 05, 2022, 02:59:40 PM
Seems like Russia's got to let one thing go for now, Donbass or Kazakhstan
I doubt they would leave either. Having a foothold in Ukraine is vital for them and the Donbass battle space is not that big and in concern to be lost against Ukrainian conscripts. Kazakhstan’s special forces and specialized battalions are themselves no joke and with Russian guidance would crush the revolt before a full-scale civil war erupts or pro-western liberals get into power.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #23 on: January 05, 2022, 04:10:28 PM »
The tweets, while highly informative, make this thread almost impossible to read. Perhaps better to just put links to the tweets here if possible...
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #24 on: January 05, 2022, 04:16:49 PM »
FREE KAZAKHSTAN!!!
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