Canadian by-elections, 2013

[DC Al Fine]

Robert Benzie on Twitter: Dwight Duncan will resign his seat next week. Windsor-Tecumseh now opens up. Will Dippers try and grab it?

Should be a pretty easy Dipper pick up. Grits don't have a star and the NDP are riding high in the polls.

[DC Al Fine]

Hatman, when you say your assembly is based off the 2011 results, do you mean federal or provincial?

[DC Al Fine]

So why the heck did Penashue resign? It seems like he could have ridden out the scandal. Now he's giving up his seat.

[DC Al Fine]

That's more than 100%?

Fixed: 63-20-17. Looks like Yvonne Jones will be Labrador's next MP.

Not even close.

[DC Al Fine]

Leaning towards a Liberal hold, assuming we're all basking in the Trudeau afterglow.

[DC Al Fine]

Here's Brian Topp's chance to run for the NDP, lose, and never be heard from again...

You aren't the only which proposed that.
Who ran there in 2011?

Julie Demers.

The NDP should run someone from the Haitian community, they make up 20% of the riding.

Oh, I know her, she is a very kind person, but I'm not sure she is the right person to do that.

Trudeau's still in his honeymoon. I'd write off Bourassa for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Here's Brian Topp's chance to run for the NDP, lose, and never be heard from again...

What's wrong with Topp?

[DC Al Fine]

No one has brought up a vacancy in Nova Scotia? Manning MacDonald (L-Cape Breton South) resigned last week from the provincial legislature.  The riding has been Liberal since 1974 and will likely stay that way. Interestingly, the CCF held it in 1941. 

Being so close to a provincial election and with redistribution (correct me here, but it looks like CB will lose a riding and the district of Cape Breton South is now divided into Northside-Westmount, Sydney and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg, only Sydney will go NDP, the other two should be Liberal) there will be no by-election

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg & Northside Westmount both have sitting Tories running in them in the next election. The Liberals will probably get screwed out of a seat based on CB South getting divvied up between Tory & NDP areas.

[DC Al Fine]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

Zinck says he's running as an independent. May screw the NDP out of what should have been a safe seat.

[DC Al Fine]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

Zinck says he's running as an independent. May screw the NDP out of what should have been a safe seat.

Would ANYONE vote for him?

He'd get a few votes. The problem is that there's been such a massive swing to the Liberals that it wouldn't take much vote splitting to for the Liberals to win.

[DC Al Fine]

I think that if Zinck runs as an independent a: He will get very very very few votes (ie: 100-200 at most)  and b: what few votes he gets will be contrarian "none of the above" types who otherwise wouldn't vote at all or would spread their votes evenly.

Who is the NDP running in Dartmouth North given that under normal circumstances it should be relatively strong seat for them?

They don't have a candidate yet. I have no idea who might be seeking the nomination either.

[DC Al Fine]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

I like the sounds of Jenn, she could be a very good fit for this young, relatively-yuppieish riding (i say that due to the St.Lawrence/Waterfront condo goers who are much less party oriented and more candidate swayed i feel. As well as the bourgeois Cabbagetown, she's a modern feeling social democrat/social justice candidate)
The Liberals should not be so quick to nominate Smitherman; he lost the mayoralty and his (and Kyle Rae's) hand picked council candidate was defeated by Wong-Tam, he rubs many people very badly.

I'm still sold on the idea that this by-election is a building block for the NDP, the candidate who runs now should also stick around till 2015 when the boundaries will be more favourable (spend the time getting more intrenched into the local communities like St.Jamestown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown and the waterfront/St.Lawrence)

Dartmouth North, demographically, feels pretty safe for the NDP. Any regional breakdowns for NS? I remember hearing/reading that the NDP were still quite strong in the Halifax region compared to the province wide numbers? Its always been (recently since the 90s, their strongest area)

Nothing in the polls. Looking at past election results, the NDP have averaged about 10 points better in Halifax than their provincial numbers. Actually, I take back my comment about the Liberals picking up Dartmouth North. I just noticed that their candidate in 2009 was a popular city councilor. He polled way above the norm for the Liberals in the seat but won't be running again.

You are right abut Dartmouth North demographics. A large part of the riding is NDP friendly in the sense that Vancouver East is NDP friendly.

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone think Wynne calls a fall election, or we wait for another round of budget chicken next year?

I could see her calling an election while Trudeau love is still in the air. However, the more likely scenario is Wynne daring the NDP to force an election.

[DC Al Fine]

The Ontario Liberals have apparently decided to dispense with any pretence to local democracy and instead Wynne has simply handpicked friends of hers as candidates. Pro-Ford city councillor Peter Milczyn will run in Etobicoke-Lakeshore while CivicAction chair Mitzie Hunter will run in Scarborough-Guildwood and the byelections will all apparently take place on Aug. 1 just before the long weekend - so make sure turnout is as low as possible.

Why is anyone a Liberal anymore?

[DC Al Fine]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

Why are you a Liberal federally though?

[DC Al Fine]

It just goes to show you that the Liberals have no ideological base. They're running a former NDPer and a Ford-ite in the same set of by-elections.

I'm still amazed that Scott "I'm ok with private health care" Brison and Bob Rae managed to sit in the same caucus for so long

[DC Al Fine]

Posted this in Canada General Discussion already but...

Al Gretzky is running for the Freedom Party?!

[DC Al Fine]

Forum has the NDP up 52-22 in Windsor-Tecumseh, Tories up 36-29 on the Dipper in London West. Ottawa South has a narrow Grit lead, 42-38. Usual caveats involving Forum and riding polls more generally.

I thought forum tended to over poll liberals?

[DC Al Fine]

I can't believe i am going to beat Hatman to this...

Ottawa Public School Board Vice-Chair, Bronwyn Funiciello, Wins Ontario NDP Nomination in Ottawa South

I was there! If you were following me on Twitter, you would have seen I was the first to report it. (I basically wrote the message before the announcement, and hit send on my cellphone when it was made )

I'm thinking Wali lost badly. He had a large contingent at the meeting (signs, etc - but more obviously the high Somali turnout) but none of them could vote. I knew right away when they all left the room when voting took place that he was going to lose.

Were they non-citizens or is Wali the worst political organizer ever?

[DC Al Fine]

Also posted in the General thread. Can't say I'll miss him, and Provencher is a deeply blue seat. Guess Harper will call them all for the same time.

Indeed. Provencher & Toronto Centre ought to be snoozers. Any chance of Bourassa changing hands?

[DC Al Fine]

Snoozer... as expected.

[DC Al Fine]

Final Prediction

Ottawa South: PC
Scarborough - Guildwood: Liberal
Etobicoke Lakeshore: PC
London West: NDP
Windsor Tecumseh: NDP

[DC Al Fine]

The real question of the night: How did Al Gretzky get 4% of the vote for the Freedom Party?

[DC Al Fine]

Following the Toronto NDP model, it would seem.

They nominated a left wing journalist?

[DC Al Fine]

What's Canada's most forgotten province?