Canadian by-elections, 2013

[DL]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

[DL]

Hamilton is 3 NDP, provincially and federally.

Oshawa is 2 Con/PC, provincially and federally.

London is 2 Lib, 1 NDP provincially; 1 Lib, 1 NDP, 1 Con federally.

Correction federally London is 1 NDP and 2 Conservative - the libs lost London North Centre in 2011

[DL]

I wouldn't bet on it. Todd Russell will decide in the next few days. Yvonne Jones is also thinking about running.

If Yvonne Jones runs for the Liberals she would have to resign her seat in the Newfoundland legislature. Right now there are 6 Liberals and 5 New Democrats in St. John's...if the NDP won the provincial byelection it would overtake the Liberals and become the official opposition.

[DL]

In NL things can change on a dime with the right candidate. In 2008 the CPC can did ate in Labrador was a distant third with 8% and in 2011 Penashue won with 41%. Right across the Straits of Belle Isle from Yvonne Jones riding is a riding where the NDP went from having virtually no support whatsoever in 2007 to winning in 2011... So don't rule ANYTHING out in NL

[DL]

The NDP needs a really good *LOCAL* candidate to win. Otherwise, they wont win.

That goes without saying...here is a case study of how much of a difference having a good local candidate and an active campaign can make in rural Newfoundland. The ridings of Grand Banks and Burin-Placentia are right next door to each other and are demographically identical in every way. In the Oct. 2011 NL election in Grand Banks the NDP ran a "paper candidate" who got 202 votes 3% of the total. In Burin-Placentia the NDP ran a former local mayor and put resources into the contest - they got 2,498 votes (48%) and lost by just 40 votes.

On paper Yvonne Jones' provincial seat in Labrador looks like a super safe Liberal seat, but this is the sort of places where people vote overwhelmingly for the individual and not so much the party. If she is out of the picture, in a byelection that seat would be totally up for grabs. You can be sure that now that the NDP is polling at 39% province-wide, there will be no shortage of local notables and mayors who would be eager to board the orange elevator on the ground floor before it goes up!

[DL]

Interesting to see those provincial riding breakdowns. The NDP managed to win the Labrador West area (essentially Wabush and Labrador City) with no campaign at all...I guess it helps when that area is essentially all steelworkers! Seems to me that the path to the NDP winning Labrador is to hold and expand support in Labrador West, not worry too much about "Torngat Mountains" where there are almost no votes anyways and not worry too much about Carwright-L'Anse au Clair either - esp. if Yvonne Jones runs for the Liberals...the place where the riding could be won is clearly the Melville Lake riding which includes the population centre of Happy Valley-Goose Bay. The NDP only took 12% of the vote there in the 2011 federal election, but running Arlene Michelin provincially (who is a city councillor in the Goose Bay), the NDP vote climbed to 35%...she is apparently being courted to run federally for the NDP now.

[DL]

What is the difference between the Innu and the Inuit? I was always under the impression that "Innu" was the name given to Inuit people living in Labrador...but apparently they are actually different people.

[DL]

I don't know if i would describe the Inuit or the Innu as "Tory-friendly" or unfriendly for that matter. I think people in those communities tend to vote en masse for a candidate who is from that community who is respected and if no one is running who fits that description, they tend not to vote at all. If Penashue had been recruited to run for the Liberals or the NDP, I will bet yu that 99% of the votes he got in the Innu reserves would have voted for him regardless of party.

[DL]

Goosney is a city councillor in Labrador City and is a pipe fitter and a hockey player etc...

Borlase is a young guy from Goose Bay who seems to have some stellar academic credentials etc... More here

http://harryborlase.wordpress.com/

[DL]

Seems that Mike Goosney who could be the NDP candidate in Labrador is a big fanatic about singing the national anthem! What the heck, imagine having him in caucus in Ottawa along with musicians like Andrew Cash and Charlie Angus...

http://www.cbc.ca/labradormorning/episodes/2013/01/30/labrador-city-man---loves-to-sing-national-anthem/

[DL]

I think people in Labrador have made up their mind one way or the other about Penashue. I expect him to come in third. All this talk about how the NDP needed to stand aside because he could only lose to a single opposition candidate are obviously absurd. I have a feeling Harper is now going to stall calling this byelection for as long as possible since it is certain to be a Tory defeat, but they may try to use Labrador as a laboratory to test attacks on Justin Trudeau after he is crowned...though even if the Tory attacks on the Liberals work - it will probably only shift votes from Liberal to NDP and bypass the Tories completely.

[DL]

Also, I'm sure a deal has been cooked up in advance whereby after Penashue loses he will declare that his new permanent address is in Ontario and harper will name him to the senate.

[DL]

Can someone explain what exactly was wrong with Boulerice's blog post. I was under the impression that just about everything he said is true:

World War One was a capitalist war - TRUE it was...anyone care to come up with any other definition of it?

Just about the only people willing to resist the jingoist call to arms in 1914 tended to be communists and socialist - also true

The vast majority of the soldiers who got slaughtered in unbelieveable numbers in World War One were 18 and 19 year sons of peasants and factory workers (in those days about 95% of the population fell into those two categories = true

At Vimy Ridge tens of thousands of Canadian boys died capturing one hill all in futile inconclusive war about nothing - also true

BTW: I personally think the Crusades of the 11th century were also a mistake - sorry if I insulted any veteran Crusaders or their descendants

[DL]

If the Conservatives want to remind Quebecers of how Borden shoved conscription down their throats in 1917 it will INCREASE NDP support in Quebec.

[DL]

There are too many allophones in Bourassa for the BQ to have any chance, I suspect they will run a very perfuntory campaign there and get less than 10% of the vote.

[DL]

The boundaries and the demographics of Bourassa have changed enormously since 1993 and on top of that in 1993 the NDP was non-existent in Quebec so the BQ was the only place to go if you were the least bit left of centre and there was all that Bouchard-mania that year etc...Now with the Marois government incredibly unpopular and with the BQ broke, issueless and leaderless i think you will see an Outremont-like situation where the BQ falls into single digits and most of the old BQ vote stays home or takes flight to the NDP.

[DL]

If Coderre resigns his seat in May, I expect Harper to wait a full six months before calling the byelection so that it would happen AFTER the mayoral election likely in December...by then the dust from Justin-mania will likely have more than settled and who knows if the PQ will even be in power anymore.

[DL]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

The PQ may not have a choice, the opposition parties may vote no-confidence and force and election later this year.

[DL]

I predict Bourassa won't vote until mid December

[DL]

Bob Rae will hold a news conference at 11 to announce his retirement. Wonder who the Liberals will choose in Toronto Centre.

I think George Smitherman is looking for a job...if he wants the nomination he's probably unstoppable, but he would be bad for the federal Liberals to have in their caucus for a myriad of reasons.

[DL]

I predict Harper will call byelections in Bourassa and TC on the same day and likely he will wait until November and set the date for mid-December.

[DL]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

[DL]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

Zinck says he's running as an independent. May screw the NDP out of what should have been a safe seat.

Would ANYONE vote for him?

[DL]

I think that if Zinck runs as an independent a: He will get very very very few votes (ie: 100-200 at most)  and b: what few votes he gets will be contrarian "none of the above" types who otherwise wouldn't vote at all or would spread their votes evenly.

Who is the NDP running in Dartmouth North given that under normal circumstances it should be relatively strong seat for them?

[DL]

Forum pegs a generic TO Centre race as 49% Liberal, 25% Dipper and 20% Tory.

They certainly did that poll up pretty quick.

I don't know how they manage to do 950 interviews all in one night...every single phone in that riding must have been ringing off the hook...one thing to bear in mind about IVR polls is that they cannot include any cell phones in riding polls since cell numbers cannot be traced to an individual riding...so any riding poll is landline only - and in a riding like Toronto Centre there would be a huge number of people with only cell phones.