Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[Flying Dog]

welcome to the forums wahooliberty

[Moooooo]

Kilgore up 2% - Mason Dixon Poll.

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Kilgore 44%
Kaine 42%

[Flying Dog]

Kilgore up 2% - Mason Dixon Poll.

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Kilgore 44%
Kaine 42%

still a tossup...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Not really.

Look a little deeper at the "undecideds."

in 2004 the likely voters in that pool voted for Bush over Kerry by nearly three to one!

The undecideds are undecided because they recognize what just about everyone does, that Kilgore is a lackluster candidate.

On election day they will break to kilgore by about two to one.

Kaine has had a problem throughout the campaign as to his identity.

Either he could be Warner redux (and abandon Kaine's past positions on several issues) or he could be authenic Kaine (a liberal).

Kaine could have confessed that his past opposition to the right to keep and bear arms was mistaken. and agreed with Kilgore on the need to stop illegal immigation, in which case he would probably have a slight lead today.

Oh, and BTW, on the Mason-Dixon polls:

Candidate     Recent     July     Difference

Kilgore            44%       37%    +7%

Kaine              42          38       +4

Potts                5            9        -4

[Flying Dog]

Not really.

Look a little deeper at the "undecideds."

in 2004 the likely voters in that pool voted for Bush over Kerry by nearly three to one!

The undecideds are undecided because they recognize what just about everyone does, that Kilgore is a lackluster candidate.

On election day they will break to kilgore by about two to one.

Kaine has had a problem throughout the campaign as to his identity.

Either he could be Warner redux (and abandon Kaine's past positions on several issues) or he could be authenic Kaine (a liberal).

Kaine could have confessed that his past opposition to the right to keep and bear arms was mistaken. and agreed with Kilgore on the need to stop illegal immigation, in which case he would probably have a slight lead today.

Oh, and BTW, on the Mason-Dixon polls:

Candidate     Recent     July     Difference

Kilgore            44%       37%    +7%

Kaine              42          38       +4

Potts                5            9        -4

Yeah, but Potts is the wildcard factor right now. I wonder how many undecideds would break towards him?? It could swing the election either way.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Potts is likey to get about five per cent of the vote (the hard core liberals in Virginia).

Think of him as John Anderson.

If he weren't in the race then it would probably be pretty close to 50/50 (Kilgore is a lackluster candidate).

However, with him in the race Kaine has little chance of winning.

Look at the odds at Tradesports.

[© tweed]

Tradesports has actually had Kaine's stock rise about 20-25 points in the past month.  He was at .15 when he hit rock bottom.

I still think Kilgore will win, and that Tradesports' current odds are (somewhat) accurate, but Kaine has made this very close and he'll get within 2 percentage points of winning.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Obviously Kilgore is a poor communicator (and not the brightest of candidates) BUT, on election day I believe (assuming he doesn't do something stupid in the next couple of weeks) that he will beat Kaine by a comfortable (but not large margin).

My prediction:

Kilgore     51%
Kaine       44
Potts          5

On wildcard for which I have No information is turnout.

[Gustaf]

I'm with Carl on this one. Much as I would like Kaine to win, I don' think he will. I don't think it will be quite as much of a blow-out as Carl thinks (7%), a tad lower like 4-6. But not sufficiently close to be called a tossup. It looks like Virginia might turn into another Ohio: Republican-leaning battleground where the Republican party controls everything on the state level (though it's a while left before VA becomes as close as Ohio, obviously). And that sucks for the Dems.

[Moooooo]

Rasmussen Poll 10/24/05

Kilgore 48%
Kaine 46%
Potts 2%

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'm with Carl on this one. Much as I would like Kaine to win, I don' think he will. I don't think it will be quite as much of a blow-out as Carl thinks (7%), a tad lower like 4-6. But not sufficiently close to be called a tossup. It looks like Virginia might turn into another Ohio: Republican-leaning battleground where the Republican party controls everything on the state level (though it's a while left before VA becomes as close as Ohio, obviously). And that sucks for the Dems.

Actually, the Democrat nominee for Attorney General is going to win big.

Unlike Kaine, he doesn't oppose the right to keep and bear arms and hasn't come out for spending tax money for centers to get jobs for illegal aliens.

[MHS2002]

I'm with Carl on this one. Much as I would like Kaine to win, I don' think he will. I don't think it will be quite as much of a blow-out as Carl thinks (7%), a tad lower like 4-6. But not sufficiently close to be called a tossup. It looks like Virginia might turn into another Ohio: Republican-leaning battleground where the Republican party controls everything on the state level (though it's a while left before VA becomes as close as Ohio, obviously). And that sucks for the Dems.

Actually, the Democrat nominee for Attorney General is going to win big.

Unlike Kaine, he doesn't oppose the right to keep and bear arms and hasn't come out for spending tax money for centers to get jobs for illegal aliens.

The Democratic nominee for AG, Creigh Deeds, was endorsed by the NRA.

[Moooooo]

Some interesting news...  According to some sources Warner has pulled the plug on Kaine for Governor.

From Outside The Beltway:

We have learned here at CW, from sources involved with the General Assembly and close to a high ranking Warner administration official, some amazing news.

At the Governor's senior staff meeting this morning, the decision was made to "pull the plug" on Tim Kaine's campaign. No more will Warner assist the Kaine campaign in major ways. No more public appearances, etc.

According to our sources, Warner is said to have no interest in seeing to fruition, a Tim Kaine Administration. Aides apparently believe that a Kaine administration would steal the limelight from potential Presidential candidate, Gov. Mark Warner. Stay tuned...this should be interesting.

[Frodo]

Some interesting news...  According to some sources Warner has pulled the plug on Kaine for Governor.

From Outside The Beltway:

We have learned here at CW, from sources involved with the General Assembly and close to a high ranking Warner administration official, some amazing news.

At the Governor's senior staff meeting this morning, the decision was made to "pull the plug" on Tim Kaine's campaign. No more will Warner assist the Kaine campaign in major ways. No more public appearances, etc.

According to our sources, Warner is said to have no interest in seeing to fruition, a Tim Kaine Administration. Aides apparently believe that a Kaine administration would steal the limelight from potential Presidential candidate, Gov. Mark Warner. Stay tuned...this should be interesting.

Until this rumor is backed up by a legitimate mainstream news-source like the Richmond Times-Dispatch or the Washington Post, it will remain just that -a rumor.   

[TheresNoMoney]

Old news. That rumor was refuted last week. It was just a right-wing attempt to smear Kaine.

Warner is absolutely committed to helping Tim Kaine elected.

[nini2287]

If that rumor is true, I agree with Carl's prediction.

Otherwise:
Kilgore 49
Kaine 47
Potts 4

[Sam Spade]

Because Virginia polls tend to underestimate Republicans, and estimating recent polls with that shift in effect, I'm going to go with numbers in-between nini and CARLHAYDEN and say:

Kilgore 50%
Kaine 46%
Potts 4%

Turnout could affect this prediction, of course, as well as undecided breaks.  I also think there is a good chance Potts could pull either higher and lower than this number above.

I also reserve to change my prediction as new polls come out. 

[Flying Dog]

The nascar car that had kilgore for governor imprinted on the side crashed in the race on sunday......could be a bad omen....

[ATFFL]

That car is a risk.  What if it crashes?

The nascar car that had kilgore for governor imprinted on the side crashed in the race on sunday......could be a bad omen....

DING!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Some interesting news...  According to some sources Warner has pulled the plug on Kaine for Governor.

From Outside The Beltway:

We have learned here at CW, from sources involved with the General Assembly and close to a high ranking Warner administration official, some amazing news.

At the Governor's senior staff meeting this morning, the decision was made to "pull the plug" on Tim Kaine's campaign. No more will Warner assist the Kaine campaign in major ways. No more public appearances, etc.

According to our sources, Warner is said to have no interest in seeing to fruition, a Tim Kaine Administration. Aides apparently believe that a Kaine administration would steal the limelight from potential Presidential candidate, Gov. Mark Warner. Stay tuned...this should be interesting.

Actually, the situation is simpler and less nefarious than you suggest.

Kaine could have said that like Paul on the road to Damascus, he had seen  the light and repented his earlier opposition to the right to keep and bear arms.  He didn't

He embraced illegal aliens.

Kaine has been digging his own political grave, refusing to listen to Warner.

So, why should Warner let Kaine drag him down.

Kaine is an ingrate who only got elected Lt. Gov. by riding on Warner's /coatrails'.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Kaine--48%
Kilgore--48%
Potts--4%

I let you figure this out

[Ben.]

Kaine--48%
Kilgore--48%
Potts--4%

I let you figure this out

Who did the poll?

I doubt very much anyone is "pulling the plug" I doubt the GOP is "pulling the plug" in NJ and i very very much doubt the Democrats and Warner would "pull the plug" in VA... stikes me as wishful thinking by some.

[minionofmidas]

If they are, it's because they don't believe they'll win, not (or mostly not) because of intra-party wrangling.
It's more likely (not ruling out the other option though) that someone from the other side's spreading these kinds of rumours.

[Flying Dog]

Kaine is not likely to win, but he has a shot.

[Blank Slate]

Kaine is not likely to win, but he has a shot.

I would agree with you here, Jtfdem.  I actually think that Democrat Kaine has a better shot at winning in Virginia, then Republican Forrester has of winning in New Jersey.