Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

Whew! That wraps up Election '26. I may have gone a little overboard with the number of Democratic pickups in the House, TBH. I wasn't expecting it to add up to 70+, which is where it will likely be once I add everything up. I actually held back on a few districts I had intended to flip, I'm glad I did.

Anyways! Thoughts, comments?

[Mike Thick]

Whew! That wraps up Election '26. I may have gone a little overboard with the number of Democratic pickups in the House, TBH. I wasn't expecting it to add up to 70+, which is where it will likely be once I add everything up. I actually held back on a few districts I had intended to flip, I'm glad I did.

Anyways! Thoughts, comments?

70+ may be a huge wave, but given all the craziness that's happened recently it's not unrealistic. Looking forward to 2028!

[KingSweden]

Meet your freshman class of the 120th Congress!

GOP

AL-1: AJ McCarron
AL-5: John Babseth
AL-6: Greg Reed
AZ-8: Joe Onah
AR-1: Leslie Rutledge
CA-49: Rajiv Rathod
CA-50: Mindy Trice
FL-12: Alan Williams
GA-3: John Lough
GA-11: Greg Ford
GA-12: Jim Arrick
GA-14: Kate Bauer
ID-1: Matt Reeve
ID-2: Brandon Woolf
IN-8: Kevin Dunkett
IN-9: Eric Maleen
KS-4: Mark Baker
KY-5: Regina Bunch
LA-6: Dan Claitor
MD-1: Kevin Hornberger
MO-3: Bill Robertson
MO-7: Matt Blunt
MS-3: Joe Ells
NC-8: Donny Lambeth
NM-2: Trudy Ramirez
NY-25: Angela Wozniak
OH-10: Rick Barry
OK-1: Raylynn McDermott
OK-3: Chuck Pasche
OK-4: Scott Martin
PA-16: Richard Kotile
SC-1: Trey Harrell
SC-5: Bill Jackson
SC-7: Greg Ghent
TN-2: Kyle Agnew
TN-4: Dawn White
TX-1: Tom Nevers
TX-7: Mike Schofield
TX-8: Will Metcalf
TX-17: Kyle Kacal
TX-26: Tan Parker
TX-36: Greg Bonnen
TX-39: Ryan Ford
VA-7: Ryan McDougle
UT-1: Tim Morrison

Democrats

AK-AL: Chris Tuck*
AL-2: Brian Crook*
AL-3: Marlon Meals*
AZ-2: Israel Peron*
CA-7: David Franke
CA-12: Melissa Chase-Akita
CA-14: Ro Khanna
CA-19: James Pannetta
CA-20: Henry Perea*
CA-21: Adam Lopez*
CA-25: John Bolling*
CA-26: Matt Dababneh
CA-30: McKenna Rhys
CA-39: Tom Kurosawa*
CA-46: Erica Ramirez
CA-54: David Alvarez
CO-2: Alyse Picton-Sharp
CO-5: Dominick Moreno*
CT-3: Matt Lesser
CT-4: Mark Plasse*
CT-5: Byron Jones*
DE-AL: Matthew Denn
FL-3: Amadna Perkins*
FL-5: Peter Esposito
FL-7: Tim Nebbins*
FL-17: Ryan Blazer*
GA-2: Ron Baker
GA-7: Kevin Rounds*
GA-13: Jeremy Todd
IA-3: Jodi Edwards
IL-2: Cyrus Hart*
IL-3: Scott Bennett*
IL-5: Jennifer Coulon*
IL-6: Dan Lipinski*
IL-7: Stephanie Kifowit
IL-9: Joanna Lawes*
IL-10: Jennie Jay
IL-14: Omar Bolton
IL-16: Eric Bony*
IN-1: Angelo Carter
IN-2: Ryan Dvorak*
KS-3: Mark Ellis*
KY-3: Morgan McGarvey
KY-6: Chris Bright*
MA-3: Kathleen O'Connor Ives
MA-7: Sonia Chang-Diaz
MA-8: Mark Cusack
MA-9: Josh Cutler
MD-3: William C. Ferguson IV*
ME-1: Shenna Bellows
ME-2: Nate Libby*
MI-3: Jaina Rush*
MI-4: Jon Hoadley*
MI-6: Phil Phelps*
MI-8: Jason Craft*
MI-10: Collin Janson
MN-1: David Pinto
MN-4: Laurie Halverson
MN-7: Jennifer Schultz
MS-1: Brandon Presley*
NC-6: Graig R. Meyer
NC-7: Cecil Brockman*
NC-11: Joey Baker*
NE-1: Matt Hansen*
NE-2: Jeremy Nordquist*
NH-1: Will Ryder*
NJ-3: Louis Greenwald*
NJ-10: Raj Mukherji
NM-1: Michael Padilla
NM-3: Brian Egolf
NV-3: Aaron Ford*
NV-4: Armando Beloque*
NY-1: Luke Polansky*
NY-2: Steve Bellone*
NY-3: Todd Kaminsky*
NY-5: Rory Lancman
NY-8: Brad Lander*
NY-13: Brad Hoylman
NY-16: Chelsea Clinton-Mezvinsky
NY-17: Ken Zembrowski Jr*
NY-19: Kevin Cross*
NY-21: Rita O'Neill*
NY-22: McKenzie Mitchell*
NY-23: Nina Davuluri*
NY-24: Ellie Parker*
OH-1: PG Sittenfeld*
OH-3: Nan Whaley*
OH-9: Lou Gentile*
OH-12: Stephanie Howse
OH-13: Nick Celebrezze*
OH-14: Ken Hudspit*
OK-5: Scott Inman*
OR-4: Steve Kai*
OR-5: Sara Gelser*
OR-6: Shemia Fagan*
PA-1: Kenyatta Johnson
PA-3: Brian Sims
PA-4: Mark Rozzi*
PA-6: Steve Sartarsiero*
PA-8: Mike Schlossberg*
PA-11: Marty Flynn*
PA-12: John Yudichak*
PA-17: Ryan Bizzarro*
SD-AL: Jason Frerichs*
TN-6: Jason Powell
TN-9: Lee Harris
TX-2: Patrick Bough*
TX-6: Eric Pritchett*
TX-9: Carol Alvarado
TX-18: Borris Miles
TX-21: Brad Watson*
TX-28: George Martinez
TX-29: Miranda Pineda Nuncio
TX-31: Eddie Rodriguez*
TX-32: Ramon Carter-Hidalgo*
TX-34: Eddie Lucio III
TX-35: Jake Cooney
TX-38: Trey Martinez-Fischer*
VA-2: Jon Bolivar*
VA-3: Lamont Bagby
VA-8: Patrick Hope
VA-10: Jenna Lubitzky*
WA-1: Alyssa Knight*
WA-3: JD Rossetti*
WA-5: Marcus Riccelli*
WA-6: Chris Reykdal*
WI-1: Cory Mason*
WI-3: Katrina Shankland
WI-7: Amy Carthage*
WI-8: Tom Nelson*

Democrats have flipped 80 seats from Republican to their column, giving them a massive 266-169 majority, the largest House Democratic caucus since the early 1990s. It is the largest single-election flip of House seats in American history (citation needed). On top of the 80 freshman who defeated Republicans, the Democrats also have 50 freshman from previously D-held House seats, meaning that nearly have the Democratic caucus - 130 members - are freshmen. Combined with the 45 freshman Republicans, who make up a fourth of that caucus, the House is nearly 40% new members, a massive turnover unprecedented in modern times outside of 2010.

[/]

Almost half of the House is freshmen?

[KingSweden]

Almost half of the House is freshmen?

Yup. Should shake things up a bit.

[KingSweden]

Meet your freshman Senate classes for the 120th Congress!

GOP

AL: Robert Aderholt
KS: Derek Schmidt
LA: Pending Runoff
SD: Kristi Noem

Democrats

AK: Mark Begich*
DE: Allie Adams
GA: Ricky Dobbs*
IA: Kyle Orton
KY: Andy Beshear*
MA: Josh Zakim
ME: Hannah Pingree*
MI: Gretchen Whitmer
MN: Matt Schmit
NM: Hector Balderas
OR: Tobias Read
TX: Julian Castro*
TN: Jeff Yarbro**

** Jeff Yarbro led on election night but this race is pending lawsuit.

In picking up five Senate seats, Democrats hold at minimum 51 Senate seats, with the results of a court case in Tennessee and the Louisiana runoff determining the final number. Republicans have at minimum 47 seats.

[Mike Thick]

It is the largest single-election flip of House seats in American history (citation needed).

This is definitely a huge swing, but it isn't the biggest in history. In 1894, the Republicans gained a brain-blastingly huge 130 seats. However, it's certainly the largest in recent memory.

[KingSweden]

It is the largest single-election flip of House seats in American history (citation needed).

This is definitely a huge swing, but it isn't the biggest in history. In 1894, the Republicans gained a brain-blastingly huge 130 seats. However, it's certainly the largest in recent memory.

Good God, that's a lot of seats! Well, biggest postwar swing then, I guess.

[smoltchanov]

Well, 175 freshmen in present day hyperpolarized and hypergerrymandered House, and 80 seats swing is all, but impossible now (if independent commissions would redistrict all 50 states - then may be), as well as, probably, 17 new Senators (half of what stood for reelection in year). But - impressive....

[KingSweden]

Inside the Democratic Wave and the Jockeying for Democratic Leadership

The "Blue Crush," as Democrats and pundits are nicknaming the 2026 tsunami, started in a nondescript Seattle skyscraper in early February of 2025. Jamie Pedersen, the newly-minted DCCC Chair, gathered a few top Democrats in an office he had just rented to serve as his "field headquarters."

As Rep. Marc Veasey of Texas recalls, in the first meeting looking at 2026, Pedersen smiled, handed out coffee to everyone and then said, still smiling, "We're retaking the House next fall. If you don't believe me, or you don't think it's possible, there's the door. Since I came to Washington, all I've heard is how we can't do it, how it's impossible. I'm done with that. Seriously, this isn't a joke. There's the goddamn door if you just want to sit in your cushy safe seat and stay in a permanent minority."

His sudden candor, unusual for the soft-spoken two-term Democrat even behind closed doors, surprised many in the room. Also there was DNC Vice Chair Ed Murray, the former Mayor of Seattle and a man picked by DNC Chair Sherrod Brown for his longstanding ties to Pedersen; Veasey, representing Democratic floor leader Joe Crowley; and former Obama official Dan Pfeiffer, retained by the DCCC as an advisor. Pedersen then indicated a map on the wall. "We need 32. If we aim for 32, for the bare minimum, like we've done the last three cycles, we'll lose. We aim for fifty, we aim for sixty, we compete in seventy districts, hell, we compete in a hundred districts, we win. We don't just win 32, we win forty, maybe fifty. We need a cushion, gentlemen. A Speaker Crowley is no good to us with 218 votes."

Pedersen, who played coy about Democratic strategy in a change from the public bluster and confidence of many of his predecessors, set about hiring tech talent from Seattle to staff this headquarters. His vision was to keep the DCCC's operations as far from Washington as possible - make it less of a centralized organization run from the maligned Beltway and make it a national organization. By April, he was culling talent in Silicon Valley, Chicago, and Dallas as he dispatched key lieutenants to establish further field offices.

As he described it in an interview last week, a few days before Election Day, Pedersen noted, "We needed not just field offices for the candidates in their districts, we needed hubs statewide. Where we could distribute volunteers efficiently to candidates and seats that needed them, where we could coordinate with legislative candidates to help elect friendly legislators, where we could partner with the DNC and DGA in their efforts. The DCCC was so insular, so top-down, we needed to add some grassroots fervor to it."

In a shift from many predecessors, Pedersen announced that he would not tap "preferred" candidates and instead issue endorsements and support as the primary races developed. Crowley, it is recalled, expressed concern over this strategy, but Pedersen stayed adamant. It worked - the DCCC was able to assess who had the support of local organizers, who had the best infrastructure and understood the district best, and then could flush them with cash and institutional support when needed rather than parachute "preferreds" into districts and hope they clicked.

"Early on, Jamie made it clear that campaign managers would not be dispatched from DC," Veasey explained. "Candidates would pick their own managers, candidates would assemble their own teams. We could provide pollsters if necessary, but he was right in pointing out that cookie cutter campaign strategists who fly in from New York or the Beltway don't know the local districts."

That isn't to say Pedersen and Veasey, who became his effective wingman for contests in the South and Southwest, didn't have to do some serious recruiting. Newly-elected Rep. Brian Crook of Alabama - the first white Democrat elected there in sixteen years - was at home one evening in his house in suburban Birmingham when Pedersen, Veasey and former US Rep. Terri Sewell, now Chairwoman of the Alabama Democratic Party, knocked on his door unannounced. Over steaks and whiskey in the late August heat in his backyard, he recalls, he was pitched on challenging six-term Representative Gary Palmer for his swingy, Birmingham-based seat.

"I thought they were nuts. I had a good thing going in the Legislature and had only been a Democrat for four years," Crook explained. "I told them, 'I can only do it if I run my kind of campaign.' 'Not a problem,' Pedersen said. So I say back, 'Look, y'all are from Dallas or even worse, Seattle. Y'all don't understand Alabama, what I have to promise and say and how I have to run to win here, even with a lot of blacks in Birmingham who are Democrats.'" Crook smiled and then continued, "Marc and Terri pause, as if they were a little taken aback by my candor. Terri looks like she's about to say something and then Pedersen steps in, 'No, you're right. I don't understand Alabama. But you do.'"

Crook credits Pedersen's flexibility in his decision to announce a campaign in September of 2025, a campaign his friends told him was political suicide in conservative Alabama. But he never took any heat for pledging to protect 2nd Amendment rights, and Crook suspects that Pedersen's team - composed of longtime friends from Seattle and smart politicos from around the country -  ran interference with liberal outside groups to identify which ones would be willing to support, in his words, a "chubby white good ol' boy." Whatever it was, Crook prevailed in an upset, thanks in large part to unprecedented black turnout in Birmingham.

If Pedersen's fingerprints are faint on this newly-minted, very liberal majority, they are all over the efforts in Washington to flip four seats and get a 9-1 Democratic delegation. The biggest scalp in their victory - in the entire country, even - was a mirror-image event of the 1994 debacle in which Democratic House Speaker Tom Foley lost his reelection campaign. Pedersen convinced State Senator Marcus Riccelli of Spokane to jump into the race, helped divert DCCC money into the district to not only help Riccelli defeat Speaker-in-waiting Cathy McMorris-Rodgers - an institution in the region - but also help Democrats flip two Spokane-area State House seats and one State Senate seat. Pedersen, beaming on election night from his watch party in Seattle, described it as his proudest achievement.

Now comes the hard part - figuring out how to get this very diverse, very liberal and very ambitious freshman class to come together on backing a leader. Tom Bakk and Ben Ray Lujan's surprise retirements have freed up the ladder somewhat. Pedersen is all but guaranteed to ascend to a leadership position, and he encouraged presumptive Speaker Joe Crowley to tap his loyal lieutenant at the DCCC, Vice Chair Daniel Squadron, to run the organization into the 2028 cycle, where Democrats will have to defend their improbable gains. That is, of course, if Crowley even is the Democratic leader. The much younger Democratic caucus - with two members under 30 and dozens under the age of 40 - is largely drawn from the Millennial generation, and its youngest members have ties to the campus protest movements of the mid-2010s. There is already talk of establishing a Congressional Feminist Caucus and a the Progressive Caucus is expected to swell. Hard-left politicians like Wisconsin's Mandela Barnes - from a fiery, angry political culture borne out of Occupy Wall Street and a decade of clashes with conservative state-level governments - have received reinforcements in numbers, which may cause issues for old-school Democrats like Crowley despite his progressive credentials.

"I think we ought to think very hard about the message we're sending to the coalition that just elected us," says incoming freshman Omar Bolton of Illinois, a 29-year old black activist who spent part of his youth in juvenile detention facilities. "We ought to think very hard about electing a 66-year old straight white man, when we're the voice of a coalition of persons of color, of women, of LGBT people. We have an opportunity to make a difference and send a big message about this new majority, about where America is headed. We are the face of that movement, of that change."

Insiders, in private conversations, are not particularly worried about Crowley's prospects. Considering that he needs only 218 votes on the House floor, there are likely enough Democrats who will back him, including freshmen, for him to breeze through. It would be embarassing for that number to not be unanimous on the heels of such a stirring victory, though.

A veteran Congressman, speaking off the record, indicated that the likeliest scenario is that Marc Veasey, who campaigned directly with over 90 of the newly-minted Reps and maintains a well of deep loyalty within veteran members of the caucus, leapfrogs Diana DeGette for Majority Leader. His status as the first black man to ascend to that position and the broad respect that exists for him throughout the caucus would make him a likely successor to Crowley one day and likely appease many of the progressives who would appreciate such a statement.

"Crowley has enough support in the Northeast and Midwest to make this a non-contest," a different Congresswoman added. "What'll be interesting to see is how the rest of the leadership team gets allotted with such a green caucus."

[KingSweden]

The Phoenix Caucus

Brian Sandoval, speaking from the Wynn Las Vegas on election night where he was part of a watch party with Nevada politicians, said, "We were sent a pretty clear message tonight. In the weeks ahead, I will reach out to Democratic leaders in the House and Senate and we will chart a path forward together." His remarks the next morning, back in Washington, were equally contrite: "This was a walloping, a wipeout, a loud and angry message from the country, and we have no choice but to listen, to learn, and to move forward."

The President's calm, measured tone was not shared by many House Republicans. "A generational disaster, at all levels. Governor, Senate, House, state legislature," said outgoing Rep. David Brumbaugh. "We should be hanging our heads in shame." Speaking off the record, a reelected Congressman remarked, "It is utterly and totally unfair that the people who have tried to be constructive are forced into retirement and defeated and the ing idiots who caused this mess get reelected in landslides and smirk about 'Standing up to Washington.' It's a goddamn joke."

In a remarkably personal attack, US Rep. Mike McLane of Oregon grunted, "When the history of the Sandoval administration is written, there will be no doubt that it was Kevin Bryant, Lee Bright, Greg Habeeb, Jim Jordan and their idiotic little clique that will be remembered as the villains."

Expect this kind of recrimination to continue to swirl. The House Republican caucus is smaller than it has been in a quarter century, and it is arguably as conservative as it has ever been. Where people like the famously conservative Bryant and Bright once had influence over the House majority, they will now have absolutely zero influence on actual legislation and governing and so can up their ante on conservative posturing. They are now being joined - particularly from seats in the Deep South - by staunchly conservative freshmen like Kate Bauer, Greg Ford, and Bill Jackson. The House Republican caucus has been purged, through retirements, primaries and defeats, of much of its mainstream wing.

The plans of the Sandoval administration, abetted by his choice RNC Chair, Steve McDonald, to defeat "anarchists," as they were referred to in a leaked memo, through primaries from the left, was an utmost failure. In the 17 districts where such attempts were made, zero succeeded. Sandoval's favored candidates lost in six out of ten open seats targeted by similar efforts, most embarrassingly in the Tulsa-area district of his friend and ally Dave Brumbaugh, where Brumbaugh's preferred successor, Steve James, was defeated by first-time celebrity candidate Raylynn McDermott, daughter of a local megachurch pastor who ran on not only her purist social conservatism but on constitutional amendments to only allow property owners to vote and abolishing the income tax.

There is no doubt amongst the survivors that "Attorneygate" had a major effect. "Maybe we lose 35, 40 seats without Attorneygate," NRCC Chair Adam Koenig, who had to step in halfway during the summer, muses. "A bad night, but manageable. That's a manageable minority where we still have over 200 seats. We can still team up with centrist Democrats to block the really loopy stuff the new majority is going to come up with." Koenig, long regarded a rising star from northern Kentucky's Cincinnati suburbs, emphasizes that he feels called upon to rescue the NRCC, but it is obvious he views the legal troubles swirling around his predecessor Pete Olson as a burden.

Still, despite the wave of recriminations swirling around the House GOP, many are excited about the freshman class's less volatile new members. Mark Baker, from Wichita, has been described by none other than outgoing Speaker Kevin McCarthy as a future Speaker himself. Republicans nationwide were impressed with freshman AJ McCarron - a former NFL quarterback - and his positive, chipper campaign that managed to carry 30% of the black vote, unheard of in racially polarized Alabama. Tennessee's Kyle Agnew is already being talked up as a future statewide candidate at the tender age of 30, before he has even been sworn in.

"We're calling ourselves the Phoenix Class," Baker explains on the phone from Wichita. "Because this is rock bottom. We're the freshman class that is going to raise the Republican House caucus from the ashes, better than ever before."

[KingSweden]

Here's the Senate Map. Light Blue for a GOP Open Seat Win, Dark Blue for a GOP Hold. Light Red for a Democratic Open Seat Win, Dark Red for Democratic Hold, Pink for Democratic Pickup. Green for Result Pending Court Case/Runoff. Democrats are +5, giving them at minimum a 51-47 majority pending results in Louisiana and Tennessee.

Here's the Governor Results Map.

Dark Blue is a GOP Incumbent Hold, Medium Blue is a GOP Open Seat Win. Dark Red is a Democratic Incumbent Hold, Medium Red is a Democratic Open Seat Win, including flips. Pink is a Democratic Defeat of a GOP Incumbent. Green is Independent Hold.

Democrats are +16 on this Gubernatorial Map, giving them control of a total of 26D-23R-1I on the Gubernatorial map and improving their lot from their disastrous range of only 10 mansions after 2024.

State Legislatures after 2026. Dark Blue Means Both Chambers GOP. Dark Red Means Both Chambers Democratic. Green is Split Control. Nebraska is Gray for Obvious Reasons.

[KingSweden]

As Republicans did not gain any House seats, I will only do a map of Democratic gains by state.

0 is Gray. 1-2 Seats is 30%, 3-4 Seats is 50%, 4-5 Seats is 70%, and 6+ is 90%.

Here is the Trifecta Or Not Map. Dark Blue means Complete GOP Control. Medium Blue Means GOP Governor, Split Legislature (1 House Each). Light Blue Means GOP Governor, Democratic Legislature. Pink Means Democratic Governor, GOP Legislature. Medium Red Means Democratic Governor, Split Legislature. Dark Red means Complete Democratic Control.

(Rhode Island has an Indy Governor with Total Democratic Legislature. Nebraska shows as Medium with GOP Governor and nonpartisan Legislature).

Democrats possess The Trifecta in 15 states, just over half of all states they hold the Governorship in. They face a split legislature in another six, and have a Democratic Governor facing an all-GOP legislature in another five, including in Tennessee, where new Governor Tim McGraw will have a legislature that can override his vetoes with a simple majority.

Republicans possess the Trifecta in 15 states as well, concentrated in the South and Great Plains. This means that 30 states total are under single-party control. In another five states, Republicans hold the Governorship and face a split legislature, and in another three (WA, DE and NJ, all Democratic states) they face a unified Democratic legislature.

[KingSweden]

The Shakeup

It's coming. Everybody knows that it's coming, they just don't quite know what it will look like yet. There is going to be a massive, administration-wide housecleaning in the next month or so, as Brian Sandoval "resets" his Presidency in the wake of the biggest House walloping in the postwar era. Though he can rely on his GOP Senators to filibuster anything too crazy coming out of the House once it reaches the upper chamber, President Sandoval faces a much worse position than either President Clinton or Barack Obama faced after their first midterm walloping.

First of all, he faces a much larger House majority than any of them ever did. The "Revolution" Gingrich House had, after all, only about 230 members. Obama had the luxury of a Democratic-controlled Senate to counter John Boehner's majorities with. And the Thune/McCarthy majorities that took on Hillary Clinton were so narrow they had no choice but to tack to the center.

There is no such pressure on this new Democratic Congress. Filibusters have been so weakened over the last decade that outside of having someone stand for 24 hours talking, there is little a minority can do to stop the majority, as Democrats discovered to their dismay as Republicans passed a staunchly conservative agenda over the last two years. Presumptive Speaker Joe Crowley will preside over the biggest House majority since Tom Foley's Democratic caucus of the early 1990s, a majority filled with self-declared "arch-progressives," "radical feminists," and "race-equity activists" - possibly the most left-wing Congress elected in the history of the United States. An 80-seat swing has given many of these young warriors the message that the American people are in no mood for compromise, and given that it occurred in the House, considered more naturally Republican turf thanks to the structural influence rural districts exercise, they believe that message to have been sent loud and clear.

There are a few ways forward for Sandoval, whom many close to the President describe as shell-shocked by the size of the Democratic wave. One is the time-tested Clinton strategy of triangulation. Bill Clinton tacked right, took on the mantle of conservative priorities popular with the public and then leveraged Gingrich's unpopularity into a second term. Hillary Clinton, similarly, moved slightly center and leveraged large bipartisan majorities for uncontroversial legislation, though it can be said legitimately that little got done in her last three years as President.

There is also the Obama approach, one that sources say Sandoval believes fits these polarized, bitter times better. In the view of his closest advisers, Obama didn't believe that the midterms were as much a referendum on the popularity of the GOP, rather a massive protest vote at a time of vast misinformation, Democratic panic and disarray, and the nadir of the early 2010s economic crisis. Obama, as they describe with clear distaste, stuck to his guns and waited patiently for Republicans to overplay their hand, a strategy he then pursued in essentially every other encounter with Boehner's majority.

The line of thinking in the West Wing goes that the new House majority contains some genuinely radical members. "Some of these guys have connections to people who have encouraged a race war, who have called for the overthrow of capitalism," a senior aide said on condition of anonymity. "None of the candidates themselves have said these things, but they are connected to some pretty extreme groups on the left." As a deputy to Chief of Staff Steve Hill put it in a private setting a few weeks ago, when Republicans were expecting to lose maybe forty seats, there are too many staunch progressives and too few moderates to prevent this House from "flying off the rails into a loony-land dreamed up on college campuses and the basements of wealthy parents with socialist kids."

Larry Sabato, a former political analyst at the University of Virginia, finds these analyses to be lacking. First of all, as he points out, the Democratic Party has done a tremendous job of teaching its members not to say extreme things in front of reporters or on social media. Secondly, the media is much more forgiving of Democrats who do say extreme things. Most importantly, though, the motivations of the Democratic base are much different - the Tea Party revolution was about limiting government, which made shutdowns, debt defaults and budget cuts legitimate weapons to extract concessions from an intractable President, at least in the eyes of their base. That is not the case for Democrats - a House-engineered shutdown would likely see the blame pinned on the President, as he is from the party of smaller government.

"In the binary view of most Americans, the Democrats cannot be held responsible for a shutdown because they are the party of government, and the party of government would never shut the government down," Sabato explains. "It's not fair to Republicans, especially to ones who genuinely want to govern like President Sandoval, but there it is."

Administration insiders say the President has no intention of letting it come to that and that his conviction that the Democrats will overreach is meant more in the sense that they will find other ways to come across as extreme. The strategy moving forward, instead, is likely to come in the form of a "shakeup" - the forced resignations of many Cabinet officials being the starting point.

"The President is unhappy with his current team and believes that they have not served him well. Though he pins much of the blame on last week's debacle on Congressional and RNC leadership, he does think that a reboot or reset is necessary to show the American people that he has heard them."

The starting point will be the complete sacking of his entire economic team. In the midst of a triple-dip recession, the entire Council of Economic Advisers is being jettisoned in the next few weeks. Sandoval-watchers from Nevada and Washington expect Chief of Staff Steve Hill to take over that body, heavy on longtime Republican grandees from the Beltway and Wall Street, and staff it with people Sandoval trusts from the Nevada, Arizona and Texas business communities.

This strategy shift has not been met with universal acclaim. Outgoing Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was tight with several members of the Sandoval team, described this move as, "Replacing one admittedly insular, cliquish team with an even more insular, cliquish team." The expectation within Washington is for OMB Director Neel Kashkari to take over Chief of Staff responsibilities.

The bigger letdown is the apparent decision within the administration to bounce everybody but Treasury Secretary Paul Ryan on the economic side. Ryan, it is said, was one of the people who pushed Sandoval to cave on the budget battle in his first year, the "Austerity Budget" that many in Washington - outside of conservative groups - blame for the massive Republican loss. "When it happens to some guy in another state, it's responsible spending. When it happens to your neighbor, it's a budget cut. When it happens to you, it's austerity," muses an RNC official. "Well, a lot of people experienced some serious austerity." Ryan appears to be sticking around until the end of the term, at the very least.

The bigger shifts will be in less prominent positions. Pete Geren and James Comey will both stick around at Defense and Justice, per sources, with both being seen as realists and reliable by Sandoval. Comey, in particular, is said to be a favorite of the President, who appreciates his candor and his commitment to Justice - it was Comey who privately, without any other input, helped Sandoval come to the conclusion that the Attorneygate revelation had to come publicly from the White House. National Security Adviser Mike Flynn is being tapped to take over Homeland Security, with DHS Secretary Kelly Ayotte taking the blame for the massive cyberattacks that rocked the United States this year. After TEORA's failure and the massive education cuts that hit schools in the Austerity Budget, Michelle Rhee was thought of as underperforming in her duties and so will be ejected and replaced with Secretary of Labor Michele Reagan, well-liked by Sandoval and needing a landing spot after the consolidation of her department with Commerce in the coming year is completed. Many would not surprised to see Bobby Jindal forced out of HHS - Sandoval is said to personally dislike Jindal and finds his management style too austere and zero-sum. An outsider from the medical world, like American Medical Association President Dr. Jane Robinson, is likely, especially as Dr. Robinson is a black woman and Sandoval is said to desire more diversity in his Cabinet. Dr. Robinson is also a potential appointment for the soon-to-be-vacant Surgeon General's office.

A few slots will be filled not for underperformance but due to retirements. Bob Corker, a much-lauded globe-trotting Secretary of State who has been widely praised for his measured approach to the Russian Crisis and managing the continuing transitions to democracy in Cuba and Korea, is stepping down after a cancer diagnosis in September. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, a longtime staffer, will fill the position according to insiders, though Sandoval intends to wait until the Democratic Senate is seated to nominate her due to controversies over her performance at State during the Obama years that may make her toxic to many Republicans. Also stepping down will be longtime Transportation Secretary Joe Lhota, who is retiring after nearly eight years in the role under three different Presidents. Sandoval's favored pick for his office is not yet known, though some expect him to tap a Democrat for an office traditionally held by bipartisan picks.

The most important decisions moving forward, however, will revolve around the RNC. Sandoval's close confidant Steve McDonald presided over the walloping and though he is so far thought to be in the clear in terms of legal liability in Attorneygate, there is no way he returns for another two years in the top post. Sandoval is apparently interested in former McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt, who has been out of direct Republican politics for years, though the moderate-to-liberal Schmidt would certainly be controversial with the grassroots.

[KingSweden]

November 2026: Sandoval holds a press conference in the Rose Garden flanked by Joe Crowley and Amy Klobuchar, stating, "We're going to move forward, we're going to work together, and the whole country will reap the rewards of fruitful partnership." The October jobs report shows only a loss of 90,000 jobs, but a mass shooting that kills 17 people at a shopping mall on Black Friday in Kentucky puts gun control back on the agenda and contributes to concerns about the safety of shopping centers in America, helping push retail numbers - and the stock market - down somewhat by the end of the month. Sandoval announces that he will begin tapping new members for his Cabinet - Vicky Nuland at State, Mike Flynn to DHS, defeated Governor Joe Heck of Nevada to HHS, Michele Reagan to Education, and in a surprise, Kelly Ayotte to Labor to help manage the final nine months before its merger with Commerce. He also announces that Steve Hill will take over, as expected, as the CEA, and Neel Kashkari is appointed the new White House Chief of Staff. He also announces the appointment of Dr. Jane Robinson of the AMA (f) as Surgeon General.

November 2026 (continued): Javid, with the Tories trailing the Alliance in the polls, decides not to hold a leadership review. Pressure mounts on Nathan Cullen to hold early elections before the NDP's position continues to sink, with the Conservatives within striking distance. In France, the Republicans nominate Laurent Wauquiez to lead the party in the May elections, while the Socialists coalesce around Edith Oulavard (f), aged 41. The FN narrowly leads first round polls, while narrowly trailing both mainstream candidates in the second round.

In Russia, a massive demonstration in Moscow turns violent and tips the city back into chaos. High-level discussions begin between Kazakhstan, China and the United States about a potential collapse in Siberia. Riots in Western European cities intensify as the continent continues to sink into Depression status. A new anti-EU party, on the last weekend of the month, wins a majority in Belgium and promises to hold an in-out referendum - a massive shock in the home of Brussels.

[Türkisblau]

As always, the post-election write-ups were great. Can't wait to see where things go from here, and internationally they just seem to get worse and worse. Oh well.

[KingSweden]

Results from the leadership races in November:

House Democrats

Speaker: Joseph Crowley (D-NY)... nobody winds up challenging him in the caucus election and he is expected to be back unanimously on the House floor in January
House Majority Leader: Marc Veasey (D-TX)... winds up leapfrogging Diana DeGette, to the dismay of many liberals, since she has been a committed and consistent champion for them for thirty years. It is a sign of a split between the POC wing of the party and the feminist wing of the party, and younger House members backing Veasey.
House Majority Whip: Diana DeGette (D-CO)... DeGette, with the numbers not in her favor, decides not to cause a divisive election and is elected Majority Whip
Democratic Caucus Chair: Joaquin Castro (D-TX)... slides neatly into this position after Tom Bakk and Ben Ray lujan retire
Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair: Evan Low (D-CA)... slides neatly into this spot as well
Chief Deputy Whip: John Lewis (D-GA)... is made the sole Chief Deputy Whip after many years as one of many to honor his position and longevity in the House
House Assistant Majority Leader: Jamie Pedersen (D-WA)... essentially becomes Veasey's right hand - and, for all intents and purposes, the No. 4 Democrat in the House - after his successful steerage of the DCCC
Democratic Policy Committee Chair: Dwight Bullard (D-FL)... the longtime South Florida Rep. is invited into leadership to give the Sunshine State a voice at the table.
DCCC Chairman: Daniel Squadron (D-NY)... after a term as Vice Chair, a natural choice for this slot
DCCC Vice-Chairman: Scott Surovell (D-VA)... a DC-area Beltway liberal for good measure, tapped due to his longstanding loyalty to Crowley
Regional Deputy Whips: Crowley and DeGette reform the whip team to have, below the Chief Deputy Whip. With their large delegations, California, Texas and New York all have their own whips, and then every other one whips a few states per region. Per caucus rules agreed upon in the meeting, these positions are to rotate every four years. As follows:

Democratic Regional Whip for New York: Costa Constantides (D-NY)
Democratic Regional Whip for New England: Eric Lesser (D-MA)
Democratic Regional Whip for Mid-Atlantic: Kumar Barve (D-MD)
Democratic Regional Whip for Upper South: Grier Martin (D-NC)
Democratic Regional Whip for Deep South and Florida: Derrick Simmons (D-MS)
Democratic Regional Whip for Upper Midwest: Anesa Kajtazovic (D-IA)
Democratic Regional Whip for Lower Midwest: Michael Stinziano (D-OH)
Democratic Regional Whip for Great Plains: Jeremy Nordquist (D-NE)
Democratic Regional Whip for Texas: Terry Canales (D-TX)
Democratic Regional Whip for Rocky Mountains: Brittany Pettersen (D-CO)
Democratic Regional Whip for the Northwest, Alaska and Hawaii: Jessica Vega-Pedersen (D-WA)
Democratic Regional Whip for California: Travis Kyle (D-CA)

House Republican Conference

House Minority Leader: Luke Messer (R-IN)... despite the exhortations of the conservative wing of the party to shakeup the structure after the 2026 disaster, at the behest of President Sandoval, most of the party backs Luke Messer to take over as Minority Leader. Messer cautions that he views himself as a stopgap leader and that his task will be to repair the caucus and rebuild it.
House Minority Whip: Tom Rooney (R-FL)... leapfrogs Lynn Jenkins, who decides not to seek any leadership post in a sign that she intends to retire. Rooney is also favored by the more establishment wing and is seen as the likeliest long-term leader out of the bunch.
House GOP Assistant Leader: Van Taylor (R-TX)... the conservative Plano-area lawmaker is new to leadership, part of Messer's designed "Bridging the Gap" efforts. Messer recruits the well-regarded conservative to stand for the new No. 3 position of "Assistant Republican Leader," and gives Texas their long-desired voice in leadership in the post-DeLay/Armey years.
House GOP Caucus Chair: Megan Jones (R-IA)... a key moderate voice, and impressive for a young woman who is only entering her third term in Congress. Messer is said to have been so impressed with her that he threw all his support behind her for this spot in an election against Georgia's Austin Scott 
House GOP Caucus Vice-Chair: Dakota Meyer (R-KY)... a young, fairly moderate voice who is universally respected by the caucus (he is not yet 40 and is a potential future Speaker).
House GOP Party Secretary: Ralph Hise (R-NC)... another Southern voice in leadership, and a fairly mainstream one rather than an arch-conservative.
House GOP Chief Deputy Whip: Joe Polito (R-LA)... from Steve Scalise's old seat, another rising star in the party liked by the governing wing of the party.
House GOP Policy Committee Chair: Brian Kelsey (R-TN)... another conservative tapped as an olive branch to the right wing, but one who has little national exposure and is thus not empowering Jim Jordan and his bloc of votes (even though Kelsey backed them on many occasions)
House GOP Steering Committee Chair: For this crucial spot that delegates spots for House freshman and concentrates true power, Messer taps his ally Jim Hughes to run the committee and make sure committee chairs are "team players"
NRCC Chair: Justin Burr (R-NC)... another young up-and-comer, this one a little more conservative. Also considered a future Majority Leader or Speaker.
NRCC Vice Chair: Chris Peace (R-VA)

[KingSweden]

Senate Democrats

Senate Majority Leader: Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Senate Majority Whip: Michael Bennett (D-CO)
Senate Majority Chief Deputy Whip: Joe Foster (D-NH)
Democratic Caucus Vice Chair: Christopher Murphy (D-CT)
Democratic Caucus Secretary: Tim Ryan (D-OH)
Democratic Caucus Deputy Secretary: Cheri Bustos (D-IL)
Democratic Caucus Policy Chair: Tom Perriello (D-VA)
DSCC Chair: Svante Myrick (D-NY) (picked for his proximity to major East Coast money and his connections to minority groups crucial for turnout generation)
DSCC Vice-Chair: Tim Keller (D-NM) (second straight cycle he has held this spot)

Senate GOP

All of the top four Senate Republicans - Thune, Barrasso, Wicker and Moran - step down from their positions, with the last three doing so due to imminent retirements in the next four years and the desire of the Senate caucus to mix things up a bit with the overall makeup of the leadership team to be more diverse, younger and better at messaging than the rather dry men who had been running it. The 49-strong caucus meets and selects the following leadership team:

Senate Minority Leader: Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Senate Minority Whip: Bill Haslam (R-TN)
Republican Caucus Chair: Shelly Moore-Capito (R-WV)
Republican Caucus Vice-Chair: Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Senate Minority Chief Deputy Whip: Chris Sununu (R-NH)
Republican Policy Chair: Garrett Mason (R-ME)
NRSC Chair: Frank LaRose (R-OH)

[KingSweden]

December 2026: A fairly mild December. Christmas retail numbers are not great, and the jobs report shows 115,000 jobs shed in November. Q3 GDP numbers, already negative, are revised even further downwards, the tenth straight quarter of negative growth in one of the longest recessions in American history. Brian Sandoval huddles with his Cabinet and Republican Congressional leaders to plot out their strategy for the next six to twelve months, then he departs to his ranch outside of Reno for a few weeks - what is referred to as the "Western White House," sort of like Bush or Reagan's ranches or Nixon's place in Florida. Lefty Americans suffer a blow as Bernie Sanders dies at 86.

December 2026 (continued): Negotiations swirly in the EU about how to prevent the Belgian "in-out" referendum. Javid's Tories fall even further behind Alliance, polling just ahead of the resurgent UKIP. Marine Le Pen continues to lead opinion polls, with some even showing her winning the runoff. A fairly mild winter in Europe prevents total catastrophe in Russia, with the oil and gas prices stabilizing near $80 a barrel and talks between the junta and Siberia advancing with Chinese help. John Key of New Zealand, a few months after winning an unprecedented seventh straight election, signals that he will retire in the next six months.

And now, for Sports: BYU quarterback Cody Maybell, having passed for 4,300 yards and rushed for 1,500 and being responsible for 49 total touchdowns in leading the Cougars to a 12-0 season, wins the Heisman by one of the biggest margins in history. In MLS, Los Angeles Football Club goes on the road to defeat star-studded Miami Vice FC in Florida 2-1 to win their first MLS Cup. In the Club World Cup, Liverpool heads to the final but in a thriller has to defeat Guangzhou Evergrande on penalty kicks in the final to win their third CWC.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA runoff results?

[KingSweden]

LA runoff results?

My next post, getting one devoted to it this time.

Louisiana Runoff, 2026

LA-Sen: Major Thibaut nearly knocks out Garrett Graves to add another seat to the Democratic totals, losing only 52-48 in a narrow loss. R Hold, but Thibaut announces his intention to run in 2028 after his close call in the low-turnout runoff.

LA-6: Dan Claitor wins 56-44 over Joe DeBruge to hold this seat for the GOP. R Hold.

[KingSweden]

Very glad that you're continuing this!  How's the lawsuit in TN-SEN progressing?

We're going to get deeper into that in 2027! Thanks for reading

[KingSweden]

Non-Playoff Bowls

2026 Peach Bowl: Georgia defeats Wisconsin
2026 Orange Bowl: Florida State defeats Texas A&M
2026 Fiesta Bowl: Arizona defeats Texas
2027 Cotton Bowl: SMU defeats Notre Dame

Playoff Bowls

2027 Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington defeats No. 3 Ohio State
2027 Sugar Bowl: No. 4 BYU defeats No. 1 LSU
2027 National Championship Game: No. 2 Washington defeats No. 4 BYU to become the 2026 national champion, and handing outgoing head coach Chris Petersen his first - and only - national championship!

[KingSweden]

This is, incredibly, the 1000th post of this TL. I want to reserve this space to especially thank everyone for their continued readership, their encouragement, their positive feedback, their constructive criticism when it is (quite often) needed, and the welcome this forum has given me since I joined almost three years ago.

Best regards,

KingSweden

[Mike Thick]

This is, by far, the longest (posts) timeline I've seen on this forum. How far out do you plan to continue this?

EDIT: Forgot to say that this is easily my favorite TL.