Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Virginia

VA-Sen: Tom Perriello, the very popular incumbent, attracts former Attorney General and longtime Senate Conservatives Fund leader Ken Cuccinelli, who declares this race as his comeback attempt in the midst of the brewing Republican civil war. Perriello easily beats Cuccinelli 56-41. D Hold.

VA-2: Will Sessoms retires at the tender age of 72 after eight years in the House and as one of the Hampton Roads' premier, popular political leaders. Local Republicans hope to nominate a moderate in the Sessoms mold but wind up instead with arch-conservative pastor and activist Harry Hawkins (f), aged 61, who runs a scorched-earth primary campaign impugning the patriotism of both of his more Chamber of Commerce-styled opponents, State Dels. Ron Villanueva and Glenn Davis, who split the moderate vote in an already low-turnout primary and let the virtually unelectable Hawkins through. Democrats, on the other hand, coalesce around State Del. Jon Bolivar (f), aged 47, a Hampton Roads native and senior partner in a law firm specializing in veterans cases. Bolivar runs a smart campaign, emphasizing to the large military population of the district "I've been here for you for a long time, both as a local and as a professional" and knocks out Hawkins 53-46. D+1, and Republicans start planning their 2028 campaign with one of the two runner-ups, hoping that without the polarizing Hawkins around they can reclaim this swingy but R-leaning district.

VA-3: This Richmond-area district is opened up when failed Gubernatorial candidate Don McEachin decides to retire after 10 years in Congress. State Del. Lamont Bagby, aged 49 (I think, based on quick google search) is elected to replace him in this Safe D district.

VA-4: Bob Hurt faces down a primary challenge from a local dentist and conservative activist angry about his moderate record. Hurt survives again, as he usually does, and goes on to cruise to an easy victory in a district where he has become an institution.

VA-5: The right comes after moderate US Rep. Chris Peace in the Richmond suburbs again, and once again Chris Peace beats them back with his outstanding campaign apparatus. Rumors start swirling that he may eventually attempt a run for Governor or Senator within the next few cycles.

VA-7: Rob Wittman retires after nearly 20 years in the House, eliminating another moderate in a less-than-safe district for the GOP. Republicans quickly coalesce around State Sen. Ryan McDougle while Democrats invest heavily in Charlottesville-area State Del. Mallory Quick, who replaced Toscano in 2021. McDougle enjoys a wide lead for most of the race, but it narrows sharply as the national environment turns rapidly against Republicans in October. McDougle ends up winning the race only 49-48, with a margin of less than 4,000 votes. R Hold.

VA-8: Don Beyer retires after 12 years in the House and opens up a free-for-all on the Democratic side, with eight candidates at one point running. Delegate Patrick Hope, aged 54, wins the primary in this ultra-safe Democratic district and wins in November with 70% of the vote.

VA-9: Greg Habeeb, one of the most conservative members of the House, is one of the targets of outside groups tied to the Sandoval Administration. Habeeb beats back his more moderate challenger, angrily condemns the President in his primary night victory speech for "meddling in Southwestern Virginia" and then blows out his Democratic opponent in the November general with 66% of the vote.

VA-10: US Rep. Tag Greason is one of the most endangered members of the House as his district continues to trend heavily to the left. Greason, one of the most moderate members of the Republican caucus out of pure necessity, tacks heavily to the center for most of his tenure and then has to furiously tack right in the primary to beat out Del. Anna Marshall (f), who narrowly fails to take him out. With his resources spent, Greason turns to the center again in the general only to fall to State Del. Jenna Lubitzky (f), aged 39. D+1.

North Carolina

NC-Sen: Republicans recruit former Senator Thom Tillis to seek a rematch with Anthony Foxx, hoping that North Carolina's one-term curse strikes again. Foxx, moderately popular but with North Carolina always holding risks for incumbents, holds a narrow lead over Tillis for most the fall until the race breaks his way in the last two weeks, winning by a surprisingly comfortable 53-46 margin in the fluky state. D Hold.

NC-1: A swingy, erratic area, Democrats run State Rep. Chris Isen (f) against US Rep. Chris Colton, hoping the conservative-leaning Isen can make a mark. Despite the district seeming friendly to Democrats on paper, the well-liked Colton wins another term 54-45. R Hold.

NC-5: Democrats make a play for David Rouzer as the Raleigh suburbs continue to grow eastwards and the rural areas of North Carolina tick slightly towards Blue Dogs again over frustration with the economy and Sandoval administration. Rouzer manages to hang on over State Sen. Kirby Willums (f), winning 50-48 in a tight race in a swingy region. R Hold, and the GOP is glad in hindsight it didn't recruit Rouzer to run against Foxx.

NC-6: Valerie Foushee retires after a cancer diagnosis to focus on her health. Chapel Hill area State Rep. Graig R. Meyer, aged 52, is easily reelected in this Safe D district to replace her.

NC-7: Mark Walker goes down after twelve years in this D-trending seat. 41-year old (I think, again based on Google search) black Democrat Cecil Brockman, a State Rep., takes down Walker 51-48 in a narrow and ugly race, with Brockman making several unsubstantiated claims of racism and mistreatment against the state Republican Party that fellow Democrats call him out over and Walker's campaign seeming to endorse a variety of outlandish conspiracy theories on the trail. D+1.

NC-8: After 22 years in the House, 83-year old US Rep. Virginia Foxx retires. State Rep. Donny Lambeth, aged 61, is elected here on a 3-term pledge. R Hold.

NC-9: Democrats fail to recruit Heath Shuler to return to the House this cycle and so Ralph Hise gets a pass, where the mainstream conservative wins fairly easily despite Asheville's tremendous growth in the last twenty years.

NC-11: Dean Arp finally goes down as Democrats win with young State Rep. Joey Baker (f), aged 33. Baker defeats Arp 51-49. D+1.

NC-12: Renee Ellmers seeks a ninth term in Congress, and faces State Rep. Darren Jackson, whom she narrowly defeats 52-47 in a fairly Republican district. Despite losing heavily in the Raleigh suburbs, the district's rural precincts and counties save her and earn her another term as the new Dean of the North Carolina delegation.

All other incumbents reelected.

NC Legislature: Democrats flip an outstanding 6 seats in the North Carolina Senate to earn a 28-22 disadvantage, and flip 12 seats in the House to retake the chamber 61-59, a precariously narrow position. To prevent several Blue Dog-styled conservative Democrats from siding on key votes with Republicans, the House elects a raft of more moderate Democrats to the leadership roles to preserve their very narrow position. The flipped seats in both chambers are almost exclusively in suburban areas around Charlotte and the Triangle - in fact, Republicans gain one or two rural districts in each chamber, but the net effect is still a Democratic gain in both.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

South Carolina

SC-Gov: Mick Mulvaney is term-limited, setting up a primary to replace him. Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey enters as the favorite, along with former Governor Nikki Haley and State Senator Paul Thurmond. Massey's campaign collapses when it is revealed that he helped forge expense receipts for his office. Thurmond manages to defeat Haley in the primary in a major upset, and he cruises in the general over Todd Rutherford to follow in his father's footsteps. R Hold.

SC-Sen: Mulvaney takes on Lindsey Graham in one of the most high-profile primaries in recent history. Mulvaney, the incumbent Governor, is thought to hold the advantage with his strong support in the conservative grassroots. Graham, with his machine, is encouraged to retire, which he resists. Graham only narrowly defeats Mulvaney in the first round of the primary, winning 50-47 with minor candidates taking up some space. By avoiding a runoff, Graham is in pole position to earn another term in the US Senate, defeating Nikki Setzler 56-42 in the general. R Hold.

SC-1: Mark Sanford retires after just shy of 14 years in the House and 20 years total, counting his service in the 1990s. In a rapidly-growing and demographically changing area, Republican Rep. Trey Harrell only narrowly defeats Justin Gillian, a Democratic Charleston City Councilman. R Hold.

SC-5: In this suburbanizing district, where conservative Charlotte-area voters have flocked for years, mainstream Republican US Rep. Greg Gregory retires after eight years in the House. Arch-conservative State Rep. Bill Jackson (aged 56, f) is elected to replace him in this Safe R district over one-time Gubernatorial candidate Vincent Sheheen. R Hold.

SC-7: Tom Rice retires after 14 years in the House. The general election pits two Myrtle Beach-area State Reps. against one another, and Republican Greg Ghent (f), aged 40, defeats Democrat Jordan Nelson (f), aged 39, 52-47.

SC Legislature: Democrats gain six seats in the South Carolina House to cut their deficit to 71-53.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Georgia

GA-Gov: Jason Carter runs for Governor for the fourth straight time, hoping to reclaim the office he held between 2019-2023. Challenging the unpopular Tom Graves, the two men clear their primaries easily to face off in the general election with Carter a narrow favorite. On election day, Carter wins 52-46, swinging the Peach State back into the Democratic column. D Gain.

GA-Sen: David Perdue keeps his campaign promise from 2014 and retires aged 77 after two terms. Republicans coalesce around US Rep. Ed Setzler to replace him, while Democrats quickly coalesce around US Rep. Ricky Dobbs. Dobbs, a former Naval officer gunning to be Georgia's first black Senator. Setzler runs a positive campaign, shying away from attacking Dobbs too viciously, while Dobbs runs a surprisingly and relentlessly negative campaign, in opposition to his longstanding public image. Setzler eventually caves to NRSC pressure as he stays modestly behind Dobbs in the polls, but his negative turn is too little, too late as Dobbs wins the Senate race 50-47 without needing a runoff. Dobbs' win is hailed as a sign of the "New South" and Georgia's demographic and political evolution. D+1.

GA-2: Sanford Bishop retires after over thirty years in the House. The depopulation of Georgia's rural black belt over the years nearly leads to the victory of Republican Greg Kirk, who only narrowly loses 49-48 to Democratic Macon Mayor Ron Baker (f), aged 50, who is the son of a rural Georgian farmer and a Dominican immigrant and wins the primary with white and Hispanic support as an effective Blue Dog. D Hold, their most tenuous of the night.

GA-3: Lynn Westmoreland retires. In this Safe R district, he is replaced by John Lough (f), aged 47, a businessman and conservative activist who defeats two local state senators in an acrimonious primary.

GA-7: Tom Price retires after 22 years in Congress in a rapidly changing area. Republicans suddenly find themselves defending increasingly moderate and swingy territory in North Fulton and North Gwinnett without any exurban counties to bail them out. In one of the bigger surprises of the evening, white Democratic State Rep. Kevin Rounds (F), aged 33, knocks off State Sen. John Albers of Roswell, who was heavily favored, 49-47. D+1.

GA-11: Ed Setzler, who had been fairly moderate in votes and persona, is replaced in this staunchly Republican but evolving district by solid conservative State Rep. Greg Ford (f), aged 39, who wins with nearly 60% of the vote over an overwhelmed Democrat.

GA-12: Rick Allen retires after 12 years in the House. Democrats make a run at this seat, but the decline in the black belt population and relatively low Hispanic turnout despite their rising clout in rural areas helps moderate August Mayor Jim Arrick (f), aged 54, hold the seat with a three-term pledge. R Hold.

GA-13: Ricky Dobbs is easily replaced in this suburban district by white Democratic State Rep. Jeremy Todd (f), aged 35, in a district rapidly becoming more and more diverse and less overwhelmingly black. D Hold.

GA-14: John Deffenbaugh retires after eight years in the House, initially entering the Senate primary and later dropping out entirely and endorsing Setzler. In one of America's most Republican districts, Deffenbaugh is replaced by Kate Bauer (f), aged 45, an accountant and anti-immigration activist who had failed in a State Senate run two years earlier. Bauer, marginally more conservative than the backbench Deffenbaugh, pushes the seat slightly to the right as she promises to be a major factor in DC. R Hold.

GA Legislature: Democrats have a great night as they pick up 17 seats in the House to go to 100-80, one of their best results in years. They succeed in particular in the Atlanta suburbs, where their new representatives are a very diverse mix of white, black, Hispanic and even two Asians. In the Senate, meanwhile, Democrats pick up three seats to go to 33-23.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Alabama

AL-Gov: Arthur Orr leaps into the Governor's Mansion with relative ease, running a solid campaign to replace Luther Strange and dispatches a few conservative gadflies in the primary and then handily defeats former US Rep. Terri Sewell in the general election, 57-40, to win the state and become its fourth straight Republican Governor. R Hold.

AL-Sen: Bob Aderholt clears the primary field to replace Jeff Sessions, and the conservative grip on this Senate seat continues. Democrats manage only to recruit a no-name Tuscaloosa State Rep. to challenge Aderholt, who wins 61-36 in a blowout. R Hold.

AL-1: Bradley Byrne retires after 13 years in the House. The election to replace him comes to feature almost twelve candidates in the Republican primary. The runoff pits State Senator Trip Pittman against real estate developer and former NFL and Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron. McCarron's broad name recognition, youthful energetic campaign (he is only 36) and ability to self-fund propels him past the more conservative Pittman, a rare occasion of a moderate Republican winning a runoff. In this instinctively Republican district, and as a popular figure in the state, McCarron wins 60-38 in the general. R Hold.

AL-2: Gary Palmer faces Birmingham State Rep. Brian Crook (f), a rare white Democrat aged 42, who in this case has been in the State House for eight years, spending the first four as a Republican before switching parties early in 2023. Crook runs as a classic Blue Dog to appeal to the Birmingham suburbs of this district and spends significant time cultivating ties to the black community in the district, one of the few in Alabama besides the Huntsville-based 5th that is gaining significant population. Palmer, who has moderated slightly over the years, continues to focus on his strongly conservative record, trying to appeal to the district's conservative whites. In a massive upset, conservadem Crook defeats Palmer 50-48 to become Alabama's first white Democrat since 2010. D+1.

AL-3: Without a GOP wave, and with the white voter base in his district shrinking along with the black one, Dimitri Polizos is defeated 51-48 by black State Rep. Marlon Meals (f), aged 40, who wins a rugged six-way Democratic primary and defeats a white business owner in the runoff. D+1.

(Democrats are now +30 in the House, two seats away from a majority)

AL-4: Mike Rodgers wins reelection to become the Dean of the Alabama Delegation.

AL-5: Orr is replaced by State Rep. John Babseth, aged 49 (f), who is fairly moderate by Alabama standards, just like him. Babseth defeats former House Minority Leader Craig Ford of Gadsden 54-44, a narrower result than expected. R Hold.

AL-6: In one of America's most Republican districts, Bob Aderholt is replaced by longtime Alabama Senate Majority Leader Greg Reed, aged 61. R Hold.

AL Legislature: Democrats gain one Senate seat and two House seats - this is not a place where their up-ticket success translates to much.

AL-Row Officers: Democrats get a rare statewide office in Alabama as white State Senator Kyle Dougray (f), aged 41, wins the office of State Auditor over an ethically-challenged Republican by less than 700 votes, giving Democrats their first statewide win in Alabama since before 2010.

Mississippi

MS-Sen: With Mississippi's demographics (heading towards majority black) and politics (much less partisan and conservative young whites) changing gradually, Democrats talk a big game about flipping this seat, especially as the national picture darkens for Republicans. It winds up being all talk, however, as Stacey Pickering - popular, moderate and inoffensive on the backbenches - wards off State Rep. Lauren Childers, daughter of Travis, 52-44 in a narrower contest than expected but still a big win. R Hold.

MS-1: Brad Mayo has no such luck, however, as PUC Commissioner Brandon Presley leaps into the race after being recruited by national Democrats and runs a populist, Blue Dog-style campaign against the incumbent. Mayo, once considered a rising star in the House narrowly loses to Presley, 51-47. D+1. (Democrats are one seat away from retaking the House).

MS-3: Gregg Harper retires from the House after 18 years. Meridian State Rep. Joe Ells (f), aged 39, replaces him.

MS-4: Chris McDaniel is another target of the Sandoval administration, which coordinates with outside groups to back primary challenger Michael Wilson, a Gulfport business owner and head of the local GOP organization. McDaniel and Wilson advance to a runoff, where McDaniel narrowly wins. He has no trouble in the general election.

Arkansas

AR-Gov: US Rep. Rick Crawford retires after 16 years in the House to run for Governor to succeed the term-limited and popular Tim Griffin. He faces former US Senator Mark Pryor, making his comeback. Pryor runs, like many other candidates in the South in 2026, as an old-fashioned Blue Dog and narrows the margins against the inoffensive but unexciting Crawford. The race narrowly moves in Pryor's direction in the final days, where he sees his first poll leads of the entire race, and he wins 49-48 on election day, by less than 10,000 votes. D Gain.

AR-Sen: Former US Attorney Connor Eldridge runs against two-term Senator Tom Cotton, whose popularity ratings in Arkansas have declined after his Presidential run. The race tightens late in the fall, but Arkansas' new GOP bent helps Cotton narrowly win 50-48, barely winning a third term. R Hold.

AR-1: Former Arkansas Attorney General Leslie Rutledge returns to her native district of the 1st and easily clears the primary of all challengers, and beats Democrat Don Ford (f) 52-46 in the general election. R Hold.

AR Row Officers: Democrats retake the offices of Secretary of State and Treasurer in narrow victories to have a pretty good night in the Natural State.

AR Legislature: Democrats gain four seats in the House to go to 56-44, a better result than they have had in years. In the Senate, meanwhile, they gain two seats to go to 22-13, a still-daunting minority.

Louisiana

LA-Sen: Bill Cassidy announces his retirement after two terms in the Senate, and Democrats start to discuss perhaps challenging for his seat with strong growth in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas and a major voter registration drive having started with an eye on 2027. However, their hopes are dashed when popular and moderate US Rep. Garrett Graves enters the equation rather than arch-conservative Barrow Peacock. Democrats run New Orleans-area State Senator Major Thibaut, a populist Democrat, who makes the race much closer than expected, forcing Graves into a runoff in December, even placing first, 46-44.

LA-6: Dan Claitor, a former State Senator and Public Service Commissioner Dan Claitor, 64 (and Miles' uncle if I remember correctly!) advances to a runoff against Democratic State Rep. Joe DeBruge (f) after dispatching the libertarian-leaning Paul Dietzel in the jungle.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Ohio

OH-Gov: Jon Husted is term limited. Democrats back Attorney General Joe Schiavoni while Republicans recruit US Rep. Ryan Wilson. Wilson, unknown through much of the state besides his rural Ohio Valley district, does not do nearly as well as Schiavoni, who has won twice statewide and leaps out to a massive polling lead after 16 straight years of Republican control of the Governor's mansion. Wilson tightens polling over the summer to an MOE race, before the national picture carries Schiavoni over the line 54-44. D Gain.

OH Row Officers: Democrats do well with downballot races - Treasurer Connie Pillich is elected Secretary of State, former State Senator and Clinton administration official Capri Cafaro is elected Treasurer, and 40-year old Columbus DA Zach Klein is elected Attorney General.

OH-1: An institution in Southwest Ohio, Steve Chabot retires after 16 consecutive years and 30 total years in Congress. With the popular, longtime incumbent gone, the race becomes wide open. Cincinnati Mayor PG Sittenfeld, the top Democratic recruit, jumps into the race, quickly clearing the field outside of a black civil rights activist pastor, whom Sittenfeld easily defeats. The Republicans, meanwhile, nominate State Rep. Chris Johnson (f), aged 40, whom Sittenfeld defeats in the general 53-45 in a race that was expected to be much closer. D+1.

Democrats have retaken the United States House of Representatives.

OH-3: Mike Turner elects to retire after two long, nonconsecutive spells in the House, tired by the lack of progress in Washington, the rise of hard-right conservatives in the caucus stymieing the Sandoval agenda, and his own age. In his conservative-leaning Dayton-area district, Republicans circle around former Boehner intern and staffer Chris Robb (f), aged 43, while Democrats go all-in on longtime Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, pouring resources into her challenge. In this fairly moderate district, anchored by Dayton, Whaley ekes out a painfully narrow win, 49-48, to take the seat from the dull, poorly-polished Robb. D+1.

OH-6: Jim Hughes beats back Democratic challenger Mark Ormond 52-46 in this suburban Columbus seat, winning a sixth term in the House in a race targeted heavily by the DCCC despite his popularity and the district's moderate but inelastic nature. R Hold.

OH-9: With Ryan Wilson resigning his seat to run for Governor, this leaves an open district in a blue-collar, heavily white area that has not been super friendly to Democrats in recent years and which has been shedding population. Republican State Senator Don Berg runs against House Minority Leader Lou Gentile, the top possible Democratic recruit. Though the district leans Republican, Gentile is a terrific fit for the working class area where he runs on his longstanding ties to the region and narrowly defeats Berg 51-47. D+1.

OH-10: Bob Latta retires after nearly twenty years in the House. His mostly rural, increasingly Republican district replaces him with a more conservative Representative in State Senator Rick Barry (f), aged 56, who runs on a three-term pledge and wins decisively in the general. R Hold.

OH-12: Marcia Fudge retires after 18 years in the House. She is replaced by State Senator Stephanie Howse, aged 47, in this Safe D district.

OH-13: US Rep. Luke Callum is challenged by State Senator Nick Celebrezze of Parma, aged 49. Callum narrowly goes down in this swingy Cleveland suburban seat, losing to Celebrezze 49-48. D+1

OH-14: David Joyce retires after 14 years, citing his frustration with Washington gridlock. Republicans nominate State Senator Collin Westman, while Democrats circle Lake County District Attorney Ken Hudspit (f), aged 51. Westman leads most polls thanks to his fairly moderate profile in a district known for electing centrists, but as the national picture swings hard to the Democrats in the closing weeks, Hudspit narrowly crosses the line on election night, winning 50-48 thanks to his own moderate record. D+1

All other incumbents reelected.

OH Legislature: Democrats pick up two Senate seats to go to 18-15, while picking up seven House seats to go to 52-47. Republicans hang on to both Houses, obviously, but by much narrower margins.

[Mike Thick]

It's a disaster! If this keeps up, Sandoval's toast in 2028!

Love the timeline, keep up the good work!

[KingSweden]

It's a disaster! If this keeps up, Sandoval's toast in 2028!

Love the timeline, keep up the good work!

Thanks for reading! People would have said the same about Obama after 2010, to be fair. But Sandoval is going to have to make some interesting choices after this election...

United States elections, 2026

Indiana

IN-1: Karen Freeman-Wilson retires after five terms in Congress. She is replaced in this Safe Democratic district by 34-year old State Rep. and former BLM activist Angelo Carter, who will immediately become one of the most liberal members of the House upon inauguration.

IN-2: State Sen. Minority Leader Ryan Dvorak defeats US Rep. Ryan Mishler 50-47 to pick this working-class Michiana district back up. D+1.

IN-8: Larry Bucshon retires after 16 years in the House. The "Bloody Eighth" is targeted almost immediately by Democrats, who run Vanderburgh County DA Philip Brice against Republican Evansville Mayor Kevin Dunkett. By a narrow margin, after leading widely most of the summer, Dunkett carries the 8th 51-46, just barely hanging on for the GOP. Brice immediately announces a rematch for 2028. R Hold.

IN-9: Mike Moore retires after 10 years in the House. Democratic State Rep. Terry Goodin, the 59-year old House Minority Whip, faces State Rep. Eric Maleen (f), aged 40, a former Air Force officer. Maleen wins by less than 6,000 votes, setting up a potential rematch in 2028. R Hold.

IN Legislature: Democrats have a great year, winning five seats in the Senate to go to 30-20, while they pick up nine seats in the House to go to 58-42. GOP maintains narrowed majorities in both houses.

[Türkisblau]

Good to see this continuing. Big kudos. Yeah, poor Sandoval...

[Emperor Charles V]

Please forget everything bad I said about this timeline before.

Congressman AJ McCarron, that is just amazing.

Keep up the great work!

[KingSweden]

Please forget everything bad I said about this timeline before.

Congressman AJ McCarron, that is just amazing.

Keep up the great work!

^^ Half the reason I still do in-depth sports entries, other than that I'm a fanatic myself, is that you've mentioned you enjoy them.

Michigan

MI-Sen: Gary Peters retires after only two terms in the Senate, and Democrats quickly coalesce around Gretchen Whitmer, the outgoing Governor, to succeed him. Whitmer faces no primary opposition outside of a gadfly. Republicans come around to backing Phil Pavlov, whom the recruit and convince to leave the House to take a stab at the Senate race. Pavlov, a competent candidate, cannot overcome the D wave in the Midwest and loses by a surprising 57-39. D Hold.

MI-Gov: Steve Bieda leaves the House to run for Governor as a capstone to his career. Republicans manage to convince the retiring Justin Amash, long a favorite of the Paulite wing of the party, to run for Governor despite his reluctance. The lightning that struck for Thomas Massie in Kentucky does not strike in Michigan, however, as Amash fails to endear himself to the more business-oriented GOP establishment in Michigan. Bieda defeats Amash after an acrimonious, angry and ugly campaign 55-42. D Hold.

MI-1: Justin Pennington, 41, is one of the few big-name targets who survives the bloodbath. He narrowly holds on in his rural district 48-46, bailed out thanks to a populist Indy who takes nearly 6% of the vote. R Hold.

MI-3: With Amash's retirement, this historically Republican Grand Rapids-area district opens up. In the seat once held by Gerald Ford, Republicans circle State Senator Collin Pulvey, term-limited. Democrats run first-term State Rep. Jaina Rush, aged 30, the only Democratic pickup in their net -3 night two years earlier. Pulvey leads in this ancestrally GOP seat most of the campaign, but Rush pulls out a narrow win 50-48 in one of the biggest upsets in House history to become the first Democrat to represent this seat since the Ford years. D+1.

MI-4: Fred Upton finally retires after 40 years in Congress and having spent eight years as the dean of Michigan's delegation, quite an achievement considering he once served with Jeff Dingell, John Conyers and Sander Levin. Upton's retirement leaves a vacuum in his swingy SW Michigan district, with State Rep. Joe Losman (f), aged 37, winning the Republican primary to face State Senator Jon Hoadley, aged 43 (r). In a strong Democratic year, Hoadley wins the general 52-46. D+1.

MI-6: Phil Pavlov's retirement leaves an open seat in this rural Thumb and exurban Flint/Lansing seat, which has a nominally Republican PVI (R+3/4 by the mid 2020s compared to R+2 in present day). State Senator Kevin Hinton (f) runs for the GOP, but is narrowly defeated 49-47 by Democratic State Senator Phil Phelps (r), aged 47, who had moved to Burton in the years prior to this run. D+1.

MI-8: Tim Walberg goes down! Democratic State Rep. Jason Kraft, aged 38 (f), wins by a much bigger margin than expected, 52-46, to take down the longtime off-and-on incumbent. D+1.

MI-9: In what should be a Safe R exurban/suburban Detroit seat, Democrats take a serious stab at taking down US Rep. Travis Pill but fall short, with their candidate of Oakland County Councilman Jon Bass falling just shy off the moderate Pill despite Pill's poor campaign and fundraising. R Hold.

MI-10: Steve Bieda is replaced in this Safe D district by State Senator Collin Janson, who defeats his closest Republican competitor 57-40. D Hold.

MI Row Officers: Democrats sweep all contested offices for the first time in decades.

MI Legislature: Democrats pick up 14 seats in the House to take a 71-39 advantage, one of their biggest in years. In the Senate, Republicans lose six seats to drop to 21-17, their narrowest margin since pre-2010.

Illinois

IL-Sen: Mike Frerichs is reelected in a landslide, 60-37, over State Rep. Tom Jeun (f), capitalizing on being one of the rare Democrats with genuine cachet in all parts of the state.

IL-Gov: US Rep. Napoleon Harris announces in late 2025 that he intends to challenge embattled Governor Bob Dold. With Illinois still America's most dysfunctional state, with every county losing population three years in a row, with the state having now defaulted on its debt five times and suffered another government shutdown, and with Dold seeming to want to quit his job out of frustration, it is an ugly race. Dold runs on his big pledges of reform, hoping to gut out a win that way, while Harris runs on changing up the Illinois Democratic Party to make it less of a graft machine. Harris, a moderate by CBC standards, runs a competent if somewhat negative campaign and powers past the given-up Dold 56-40. A rumor spreads that on victory night Dold calls Harris and says, "Don't know why the hell you want this job, but tag, you're it." D Gain.

IL-2: Mike Bost defeated 50-48 by East St. Louis State Senator and pastor Cyrus Hart. D+1.

IL-3: Rodney Davis retires after 14 years in Congress, turning a seat that would otherwise have been fairly safe competitive. Democrats run longtime State Senator Scott Bennett (r), aged 49, against State Senator Chapin Rose (r), aged 52. Bennett narrowly defeats Rose 51-47 in a tight, often acrimonious race. D+1.

IL-4: Despite thinking a friendly PVI can help them, Democrats don't even come close to taking out Darin LaHood. R Hold.

IL-5: Adam Kinzinger goes down! After 16 years in the House and having built a reputation as the chamber's preeminent moderate, Kinzinger is defeated by State Rep. Jennifer Coulon (f), aged 45. It is a serious blow to the House's moderate wing with the defeat of its most outspoken and media-saturated leader. D+1.

IL-6: Dan Lipinski seeks a rematch after losing his seat after 10 terms in the House. He defeats US Rep. Mark Batinick 54-45 to return to the House after a one-term absence. D+1.

IL-7: Bill Foster retires after 14 straight years in the House and 16 nonconsecutive. State Senator Stephanie Kifowit (r), aged 55, is elected to replace him. D Hold.

IL-9: Pete Roskam is defeated after 20 years in Congress, losing to State Rep. Joanna Lawes (f), aged 33 in a major upset. Roskam's campaign was half-hearted, helping him fall 50-47 as Chicago's suburbs swing hard D. D+1.

IL-10: Jan Schakowsky retires aged 82 from Congress. In this now Safe D district, she is replaced by Waukegan Mayor Jennie Jay (f), aged 48. D Hold.

IL-14: Napoleon Harris is replaced as Congressman in this ultra-safe Democratic district by hard-left State Rep. Omar Bolton (f), aged 29, who becomes the youngest member of Congress. D Hold.

IL-16: Randy Hultgren retires after sixteen years in Congress. His swingy suburban seat, initially thought safe, narrowly goes to Democrat Eric Bony (f), aged 40, a first-time candidate who defeats State Rep. Ron Timmons (f). D+1.

IL Row Officers: Democrats sweep all offices.

IL Legislature: Democrats pick up four seats in the Senate to earn a daunting 40-19 majority. They also pick up 18 House seats, mostly in the Chicago suburbs, to take back the Illinois House of Representatives with a 74-44 majority.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Iowa

IA-Sen: Tom Vilsack retires after only one term due to health concerns, including a stroke in 2024. Democrats immediately coalesce around US Rep. and former NFL QB Kyle Orton while Republicans hone in on former Senator Joni Ernst after they cannot convince US Rep. Megan Jones to give up her safe seat to run. The race is thought to be neck and neck, especially with Iowa's fairly stagnant population growth, but Orton runs a terrific campaign, maxes out his numbers in Iowa's scattered urban centers and winds up winning 52-44. D Hold.

IA-Gov: Bill Northey, though not facing term limits, decides to retire after two terms in the Governor's mansion. Republicans tap former Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds as their preferred candidate despite her not running a statewide campaign in twelve years and not having run any campaign in eight. Former Governor and former US Rep. Chet Culver, the Democratic choice, is not nearly as rusty, and his leaner, better-run campaign overcomes his liabilities as a candidate to narrowly power Culver over the naturally authentic but poorly-served Reynolds, whose campaign sputters and betrays her time and time again in a winnable race over things like voter data, turnout models and the like. Culver wins 51-48. D Gain, and they now hold the Iowa's Governor mansion for the first time since 2010.

IA-3: Kyle Orton is replaced by State Senator Jodi Edwards (f), aged 41, who wins this swingy area by a surprisingly comfortable margin of 54-44. D Hold.

IA Legislature: Democrats gain one seat in the Iowa Senate to retake a 26-24 majority after a power-sharing arrangement for the last two years. It is a minor miracle Democrats saw no defections. In the House, meanwhile, the Democrats win seven seats to retake the House, with a 54-46 majority.

Missouri

MO-3: Blaine Luetkemeyer retires after 18 years in Congress. Democrats stand little chance in this rural and exurban St. Louis seat and so State Senator Bill Robertson (f), relatively moderate future backbencher like his predecessor aged 58, wins by a healthy margin. R Hold.

MO-7: Billy Long surprises many when he decides to retire. Former Governor Matt Blunt - son of Springfield's great dynasty and having been out of office for 18 years - runs here on a three-term pledge and wins with almost 70% of the vote. He joins the much-younger Mike Talent in the House as another Republican Rep. to come from a prominent Missouri political family, and is the third such member of the House if you count Democrat Lacy Clay in St. Louis. R Hold.

MO Legislature: Democrats pick up 14 House seats, an insanely good number in modern Missouri but still not good enough to do serious damage to the GOP's House majority, which now stands at 95-68. Still, a good night in difficult territory. In the Senate, meanwhile, Democrats pick up three seats to cut their deficit to 20-14.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Wisconsin

WI-Gov: Former Governor Chris Larson challenges the man who defeated him, taking on Governor Scott FitzGerald. Larson narrowly leads the race for most of the campaign until the Midwest swings hard against Republicans in the closing weeks and he winds up winning 53-45. D Gain.

WI-1: Samantha Kerkman goes down in her first general election race after having been appointed to replace Treasury Secretary Paul Ryan! Kerman is defeated by Racine State Senator Cory Mason, who wins 52-44 in a much wider margin than expected. D+1.

WI-3: Julie Lassa retires after ten years in Congress. State Senator Katrina Shankland, 39, replaces her in this modestly Democratic district. D Hold.

WI-6: Michael Schraa suffers a mild scare against a local dentist here before pulling away late in the campaign, but Democrats are unable to see the stars align like they did in 2016 and the GOP continues to hold this ancestrally Republican district. R Hold.

WI-7: Nick Milroy's former Chief of Staff, Amy Carthage (f), aged 50, runs here against US Rep. Scott Krug, whom she defeats 51-46. D+1.

WI-8: Reid Ribble retires after sixteen years in the House. Republicans back Green Bay State Rep. Charles Johnson (f), who falls just shy against longtime Outagamie CE Tom Nelson (r), aged 50, who wins 50-48 in this slowly-growing region. D+1.

WI Row Offices: Democrats sweep all row offices, a first in the 21st century.

WI Legislature: Democrats pick up four seats in the Senate to take a 19-14 majority. The seize a corresponding 12 seats in the House to take a 53-46 majority. Wisconsin is the only state in the country where Democrats flip both legislative chambers on the same night (Iowa was evenly split).

Minnesota

MN-Gov: Lori Swanson retires and elects not to seek Al Franken's Senate seat, choosing instead to take a break from politics. To replace her is US Rep. Rebecca Otto, a former State Auditor, who easily wins the Democratic primary and cruises in the general over State Senate Minority Leader Jim Fischer (f). D Hold.

MN-Sen: Al Franken retires after 18 years in the Senate as one of its modern progressive icons. Minnesota liberals hoping for Keith Ellison to continue the tradition are disappointed when Ellison declines to run and moderate US Rep. Matt Schmit runs instead. Schmit tacks a bit further to the left than he did in the House, though, explaining to a DFL crowd in Minneapolis that "I had to vote my district for ten years" and promising that he will take more liberal positions in the Senate. That's good enough for the DFL and most Minnesota voters, who power Schmit to a dominating 56-42 win over former Bachmann aide Cory Settle (f). D Hold.

MN-1: Replacing Otto in this utterly Safe D district is State Senator David Pinto (r), aged 54, who has zero trouble getting elected here.

MN-4: To replace Matt Schmit, the DFL backs State Senator Laurie Halverson (not to be confused with Melissa Halvorson-Wiklund in the 3rd), aged 57, who is easily elected in this D-trending suburban seat. D Hold.

MN-7: Tom Bakk, the sitting House Minority Caucus Chairman, surprises much of the political world when he announces his sudden retirement from Congress, especially since he would be a top leadership official if Democrats retake the chamber. Bakk discloses a bleak cancer diagnosis and fatigue with Washington after ten years in the House at his age of 72. The DFL backs Duluth State Senator Jennifer Schultz to replace him, which she easily does in this rural but nominally Democratic district. D Hold.

MN Row Officers: Democrats sweep all row offices once again.

MN Legislature: (Forget the 2024 update on the Senate. MN Senate seats are only elected in years ending in 0, 2 and 6). Democrats gain two seats in the Senate to buff up their margins to 43-24. They gain twelve seats in the notoriously swingy House, however, to take back the chamber with a 76-56 margin.

North Dakota

ND House: Nothing much to see here. Kevin Cramer elected to another term in the House.

ND Legislature: GOP lose three seats in the Senate to drop to a 27-22 majority, a practical Democratic landslide by recent North Dakota standards. Democrats pick up ten seats in the House to cut their massive deficit to 66-28, still a huge majority for the GOP.

South Dakota

SD Sen: Mike Rounds retires and is replaced by outgoing Governor Kristi Noem. Democrats challenge her with Brendan Johnson, which doesn't work well for them since he probably would have had a better chance in the Gubernatorial race. Oh well. R Hold at 52-44.

SD Gov: US Rep. Marty Jackley leaves the House to run for Governor, with an eye on Thune potentially retiring at the end of his second term in 2034. Jackley, not facing a top-tier Democrat, cruises to an election win, 54-42. R Hold.

SD-AL: Top-tier Democrat Jason Frerichs jumps in here against untested Republican State Rep. Tom Mosby (f), aged 48, the House Minority Leader for the SD House. Mosby is favored most of the campaign until Frerichs narrowly pulls ahead in the final weeks with one of the greatest retail campaigns in South Dakota history and massive turnout on Indian reservations to narrowly boost him over the line 51-48. D+1.

SD Legislature: Democrats make marginal gains in both Houses, hardly making a dent in the GOP's daunting majorities there.

Nebraska

NE-Gov: Doug Peterson seeks a second term as Governor, and Democrats decide to punt on the race for reasons known only to them due to his declining approvals. Peterson easily defeats State Senator Collin Murphy (f), winning 52-46. R Hold.

NE-Sen: Ben Sasse, though having shed some popularity after his Presidential race, approaches this race with laser-focus, especially making an effort to reach out to younger voters in booming Omaha and Lincoln, where about 95% of the growth in Nebraska is occurring and ignoring rapidly depopulating rural patches of the state. Sasse runs one of the greatest campaigns in Nebraska history to defeat Lincoln Mayor Johnny Bowman (f) 55-44 rather than a narrower margin like many expected. Sasse clearly earns many crossover votes. R Hold.

NE-1: Jeff Fortenberry retires. In a district home to the booming city of Lincoln and the Omaha suburbs, Republicans expect to easily dispatch of whoever the Democrat is. However, the sharp decline of the rural areas of the district and the Democratic tendencies of diverse young arrivals make it a trickier district than it would have been otherwise. Former State Senator Matt Hansen of Lincoln (r), aged 38, runs for the Democrats and takes on State Senator Joleen Repp (f), aged 40. Repp is favored almost the entire race, but in one of the night's other great upsets after SD-AL and others, NE-1 is narrowly called for Hansen 50-49 in a tight, ugly race that isn't called until after midnight in Nebraska. D+1.

NE-2: Omaha Mayor Jeremy Nordquist steps into the ring at long last after years governing this fast-growing city, one of the quickest-growing in the Midwest. A relative centrist, Nordquist lucks out when fellow former Mayor and US Rep. Jean Stothert retires after he enters the race after eight years in Congress. Nordquist mops the floor with State Senator Kelly Jones (f), from a rural district north of Omaha, as he carries this D-trending area 52-45 by a much bigger margin than expected. D+1.

NE Row Officers: Democrats pick up the office of State Treasurer with term-limited State Senator Ellen Russell (f), while all others are held by Republicans.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Kansas

KS-Gov: Derek Schmidt does not seek a second term in order to run for Senate after Kevin Yoder declines to run for reeelction (see below). That leaves an open seat, and US Rep. Mike Peterson of KS-4 and Kansas Treasurer Toby Barnett (f) both enter the race, with the thinking being that Peterson holds the clear advantage. Trouble arises when former Governor Kris Kobach enters the fray and with Barnett and Peterson splitting the moderate-conservative vote, Kobach ekes through with his staunchly hard-right supporters. The win sends panic alarms throughout the Kansas GOP, with Greg Orman having been recruited by Democrats to run for the Governorship. With the bad taste of the economically disastrous Kobach years still in many people's mouths, Orman narrowly beats Kobach after a grim, ugly race to take the Governor's Mansion 50-48. D Gain.

KS-Sen: Kevin Yoder is dismally unpopular in Kansas, having been painted as a Wall Street shill and a careerist barely visiting his home state anymore. Fearing a backlash or even a Democratic gain - which would be an earthquake in Kansas politics - Republicans pressure Derek Schmidt to enter against Yoder, who quickly elects not to run for another term and announces his retirement from politics. Schmidt cruises through the primary and defeats State Senator Tim Boyd (f) 52-46 to hold the seat. R Hold.

KS-3: Caryn Tyson steps down after three terms, leaving this seat precariously open. Republicans run Olathe State Rep. Greg June (f), but he is narrowly defeated by Kansas City State Senator Mark Ellis (f), aged 44. D+1.

KS-2: Lynn Jenkins seeks reelection in this traditionally conservative district, and as the House No. 4. The continuing atrophy of rural population in Kansas, and the replacement in many communities of conservative, older whites with more moderate Hispanics and younger whites, Jenkins faces the biggest battle of her career as she faces Lawrence State Rep. Brittany Franks (f), aged 34, who runs a surprisingly liberal campaign. Jenkins holds on 50-48, but it is a sign that the changing demographics of her district are making this an increasingly difficult area to hold down for the GOP. R Hold, barely.

(I was actually initially going to have Jenkins go down, but I decided at the last second to spare her)

KS-4: Peterson's retirement leaves this district open. It is won by Wichita City Councilman Mark Baker (f), aged 37, a former Army officer and relative moderate by Kansas standards. R Hold.

KS Legislature: Democrats pick up four seats in the House, cutting their deficit to 70-31. The Senate, not held by Democrats in over a century, is not up for reelection.

Oklahoma

OK-Sen: Todd Lamb has no trouble getting reelected to a second term, earning roughly 61% of the vote. R Hold.

OK-Gov: David Holt leaves the House to run for Governor. He faces Oklahoma City Mayor Kevin Nash (f), and in a surprisingly tight race the two OKC-area candidates square off with Holt's strength in the rural areas of the state powering him to a 53-44 win, though Holt underperforms in his House district. R Hold.

OK-1: David Brumbaugh, a senior House Republican and one of President Sandoval's closest allies in the House, retires after eight years after pledging initially to only serve for six. The smart, policy-savvy and well-liked Brumbaugh leaves a glaring hole in the White House's Hill network. Brumbaugh is replaced in this beyond-safe GOP district by first-time candidate Raylynn McDermott (f), aged 32, a conservative activist and daughter of an influential Tulsa megachurch pastor. R Hold.

OK-3: Frank Lucas retires after 32 years in the House. As the dean of the delegation and an influential member, Lucas's retirement opens the door for a more conservative Congressman, who arrives in the form of State Senator Chuck Pasche (f), aged 60. Pasche, term-limited from the State Senate, wins the runoff over a more moderate Enid City Councilman after TW Shannon narrowly fails to reach the runoff and is unopposed in the general in this Safe R district. R Hold.

OK-4: Tom Cole retires after 24 years in the House. As one of the preeminent moderates in the chamber, his loss is a big one for the governing wing of the party. In a district home to Norman, he is replaced by outgoing State Senator Scott Martin, who is a fairly moderate Republican himself. R Hold.

OK-5: David Holt's retirement leaves this seat open. House Speaker Karen Croft runs in the rapidly growing OKC seat, but is challenged by Senate Minority Leader Scott Inman. The clash of two major politicians adds considerable expense to the race, and Inman narrowly wins to become Oklahoma's first Democratic Representative in 14 years. He carries the district in a major upset 51-48. D+1.

OK Legislature: Democrats pick up two seats in the House to go to 63-38. In the Senate, meanwhile, they pick up one seat to get their deficit to 38-10. Almost their entire caucus is from the OKC area, Tulsa, Norman or Indian reservations.

[MichaelRbn]

Regarding the 1st Wisconsin House seat, vacancies in the House of Representatives are never filled by appointment, only Senate seats.

[Maxwell]

What an embarrassing career for TW Shannon to still be losing this far in the future!

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Texas - Part 1

Once again, I split Texas in a midterm into a House update and a statewide/legislature update.

TX-1: Louie Gohmert retires. His district is beyond safe for the GOP, though out of the primary emerges a conservative but less controversial man in Tom Nevers (f), aged 52, who is a Texarkana City Councilman and Methodist pastor. Nevers is unopposed in the general. R Hold

TX-2: Jim Murphy, one of the "Attorneygate" Congressmen fingered as a leader of the scandal, is defeated 54-44 in a surprisingly big margin in this rapidly growing Houston seat by Patrick Bough (f), aged 36, a white Democrat and ex-Marine who resigned his job as a University of Houston chemistry professor and took on the embattled Murphy despite having no prior political experience. D+1

TX-6: Joe Barton is defeated in his Metroplex district after serving in the House since 1985. As dean of the Texas delegation and a 42-year veteran of the chamber, he is the most senior Congressman to go down to defeat. He is taken down by Eric Pritchett (f), aged 38, an Arlington City Councilman and white Democrat. D+1

TX-7: Jon Culberson retires from the House. In his West Houston/Harris district, which while trending slightly Democratic is still very Republican, the successor is State Rep. Mike Schofield, the House Majority Leader (r, aged 57). R hold

TX-8: Kevin Brady retires after 30 years in Congress. His Woodlands-based district is as Safe R as they come and State Rep. Will Metcalf, aged 42, wins the primary to succeed him after State Senator Brendan Creighton decides to run for Land Commissioner instead. R Hold

TX-9: Gene Green retires after 32 years in the House as one of the last white Democrats in Texas. He is replaced in his very Hispanic district by State Senator Carol Alvarado, aged 59. D Hold

TX-17: Bill Flores retires after 16 years in the House. In his very Republican College Station based district, he is replaced by State Rep. Kyle Kacal, aged 56. R Hold

TX-18: Sheila Jackson Lee retires after 32 years in the House. Her district includes most of the black (but gentrifying) parts of Houston. She is replaced by Borris Miles, aged 61, a longtime ally who defeats three younger and much more liberal black candidates to win the primary. D Hold

TX-21: Lamar Smith retires after 40 years in the House. Brian Birdwell runs to replace him as an arch-conservative but runs into first-time candidate Brad Watson (f), aged 40, a white Democrat running as a Blue Dog with support from moderate Austin and San Antonio suburbanites. Birdwell runs up a margin in the rural parts of the district, but the growth in the San Antonio/Austin corridor narrowly powers Watson into office 50-49 in a district that the GOP probably should have drawn to be a little safer. D+1

TX-22: Pete Olson reelected 51-47 despite the ethics cloud over his head. The near-miss is a sign that Houston's inner suburbs are moving just slightly towards Democrats, though Olson's NRCC baggage is considered the bigger issue here. R Hold.

TX-26: Michael Burgess retires. In deeply Republican Denton County, Republicans coalesce around State Rep. Tan Parker (r, aged 55), who runs and is elected on a pledge to serve no more than three terms. R Hold

TX-28: Henry Cuellar is defeated in the primary! The conservative Hispanic Democrat, who was on several occasions approached by the GOP to switch parties (declining every time) is defeated by City Councilman George Martinez (f), aged 50, of Laredo. The defeat echoes through the Rio Grande Valley, where the political machine is powerful and Cuellar was a longstanding presence in the House. In this Safe Democratic district, Martinez easily wins the general. D Hold

TX-29: Al Green retires after 22 years in Congress at the age of 79. He is replaced in his very diverse district by State Rep. Miranda Pineda Nuncio (f), aged 31. D Hold

TX-31: Larry Gonzales defeated in this swingy suburban Austin seat by former State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, aged 55, who seeks a rematch of their close race in 2022 and wins 53-46. D+1

TX-32: Pete Sessions is defeated after 30 years in Congress in his rapidly-diversifying North Dallas suburban district by State Rep. Ramon Carter-Hidalgo, the son of a Mexican mother and white American father. Carter-Hidalgo runs a savvy campaign to take down the longtime GOP mainstay in a major upset as he wins narrowly 51-47 in a tight race that Sessions was expected to win. D+1

TX-34: Filemon Vela retires and is replaced by Eddie Lucio III, who has very patiently waited for years for the moderate Vela to move on. D Hold

TX-35: Lloyd Doggett retires after 32 years in the House. In this liberal white district that takes up much of Travis County, he is replaced by UT graduate and State Rep. Jake Cooney, (f), aged 35, who becomes part of the new white Democratic caucus from Texas delegation. D Hold

TX-36: Randy Weber retires after 14 years in Congress. Greg Bonnen, a 60-year old State Rep. from the Galveston area, easily succeeds him. R Hold

TX-38: Joe Straus is one of the surprise defeats of the night, as in his D-trending South San Antonio swing district he is defeated 51-48 by Trey Martinez Fischer, a one-time Democratic ally in the Texas House who makes the jump after 26 years in that chamber, aged only 56. The victory is stunning considering Straus' former status as Speaker of the Texas House for a decade. D+1

TX-39: Ted Poe retires. In this Safe GOP suburban Houston seat, Poe is replaced by Baytown State Rep. Ryan Ford (f), aged 39. R Hold

[KingSweden]

Regarding the 1st Wisconsin House seat, vacancies in the House of Representatives are never filled by appointment, only Senate seats.

So there would just be a special election, then?

What an embarrassing career for TW Shannon to still be losing this far in the future!

I debated letting him be the Rep, but... eh. Perennials are more fun.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Texas - Part 2

TX Gov: This is, suprisingly for such a high-profile office and the man who inhabits it, not the top target of Democrats this cycle due to George P. Bush's high approval ratings and gargantuan war chest. They do get a terrific recruit in Dallas Mayor Rafael Anchia, who runs as a traditional progressive rather than trying to couch his message for Texas audiences like most Blue Dogs. Bush, who despite employing conservative language has often clashed with the increasingly right-wing flavored legislature, tacks right to avoid a primary challenge and rebuild his relationships with his base. Once again, Bush narrowly survives 51-48, but hangs on in this race to solidify his position as the likeliest successor to Sandoval in the future. R Hold.

TX Lt. Gov: Dan Patrick retires after twelve years as Lieutenant Governor. The Republican primary to replace him gets interesting - State Senator Brandon Creighton leaps into the race as a favorite of the business conservatives in the Woodlands, while Comptroller Glenn Hagar and Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton both leave their offices to take a run at the Lieutenant Governorship. The race gets testy but the very conservative Hagar, who has a statewide network the other two mostly lack, wins both the initial primary and then dispatches Creighton in the runoff 52-48 after one of the most expensive runoffs in Texas history.

Democrats, meanwhile, have coalesced around State Senator Joe Moody of El Paso (replaced José Rodriguez in the Senate in 2020), a white Democrat with impeccable connections to the Latino community in the RGV and western part of the state. It is here (and the Senate seat) that the Texas Democrats focus most of their energies, with the controversial Patrick having ridden off into the sunset. Moody and Hagar run almost neck-and-neck most of the summer, with Moody maintaining a narrow lead heading into October when he leaves the MOE. Hagar's supporters hit the panic button with a massive ad buy to prevent the first statewide victory by a Democrat since the 1990s. As the returns trickle in on election night, Democrats grab the crucial but "un-sexy" office of Lieutenant Governor 50-49, and the 45-year old Joe Moody is in key position to become a major player in state politics in the future. D Gain, and a massive one due to the Lieutenant Governor's influence in the Senate.

TX Sen: Many Democrats are surprised when Julian Castro decides to seek his second statewide office by challenging the conservative but embattled Ken Paxton for Senate rather than seeking a winnable rematch for Governor. With his brother having gained influence in the House leadership and the Castro twins having helped develop a more durable infrastructure for the Texas Democrats than the "Battleground Texas" debacle from the 2010s, this is considered the most high-profile race in the country, a Democratic push in the heart of the GOP coalition. Paxton maintains narrow but comfortable leads most of the campaign until the "Attorneygate" scandal blows into the news, particularly acute in Texas as that is where several of the accused officials were from and some of the involved RNC members were close to Paxton, already under investigation for wire fraud and campaign irregularities. The declining GOP numbers nationwide start to sink Paxton along with the scandals and Castro's campaign picks up steam in late August and early September after the Wall Street collapse.

In easily the biggest and most important Democratic win of the night, Julian Castro defeats Ken Paxton 51-47 to become the first Texas Democrat to win a Senate election since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, 38 years earlier, and the first time this Senate seat had been held by a Democrat since John Tower's 1960 victory. D+1. (With their wins in ME, GA, KY and now TX, Democrats have gained four seats in the Senate - they are one seat away, without knowing what happens with the debacle in Tennessee or the runoff in Louisiana, from retaking the United States Senate).

TX AG: John Ratcliffe seeks a second term as Attorney General of Texas. Democrats run Travis County prosecutor John Douglas (f), who runs for AG rather than Lloyd Doggett's House seat. Douglas narrowly loses 52-46. R Hold.

TX Land Commish: John Caty decides to depart the Land Commissioner office after one term to seek the office of Comptroller, which is more up his alley as a former businessman and real estate developer. Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller leaves his office to seek this post, and faces in the primary State Senator Kelly Hancock and State Senator Charles Perry. Miller's age - 71 by inauguration - becomes an issue in the primary and Hancock winds up defeating him in the runoff. For this crucial and influential office, Democrats run San Antonio State Senator José Menendez, aged 56. Hancock leads by a massive margin for most of the race but in the final days Menendez closes the gap tremendously and Hancock only wins by 7,000 votes. R Hold.

TX Rail Commish: Ryan Sitton's seeking the Lieutenant Governorship leaves his spot on the Railroad Commission open. Out of a wide-open GOP primary emerges Rep. Andrew Murr, a grandson of Coke Stevenson, while the uniformly-backed Democrat is State Rep. Armando Martinez of Weslaco in the RGV. Murr is thought to have a large advantage but he runs an oddly haphazard campaign, unlike the workmanlike Martinez who barnstorms the state, resigns his office and makes a point of hitting Murr for not doing so, and relentlessly attacks the corruption and scandal allegations swirling around the Texas GOP. Despite the oil industry's determination to back Murr into the spot, Martinez wins 53-45, the biggest margin of any Democrat on election night, to become the first Democrat on the TRC in decades. D Gain.

TX Comptroller: John Caty, moderate, popular and a better politician than many give him credit for, easily dispatches a grassroots-backed cadre of primary challengers without needing a runoff and faces no serious Democratic opposition in his campaign for Comptroller, winning the general with 57% of the vote, the highest amount for any statewide office seeker in 2026. R Hold

TX Ag Commish: Sid Miller's retirement after 12 years leaves this large and influential office open. Democrats run an attorney specializing in representing farmers as plaintiffs, while Republicans coalesce around Brooks Landgraf, aged 45, who easily wins the primary with no runoff and then cruises to a 55-43 win in the general. R Hold.

TX Legislature: In the Senate, Democrats pick up two seats to narrow the GOP advantage to 17-14, which will make life much easier for incoming Lieutenant Governor Joe Moody. In the House, meanwhile, Democrats see massive success in inner suburbs just like they have all across the country, winning eighteen seats to cut the Republican advantage to 81-69. It is a terrific evening all around for the once-beleaguered Texas Democratic Party.

[YPestis25]

This is a great tl.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

New Mexico

NM-Gov: Hector Balderas, term-limited out of office, leaves this space open. Ben Ray Lujan clears the field on the Democratic side while House Speaker Jason Harper clears the field for the GOP. The "clash of titans" promised by the two prominent politicians running never materializes, as Lujan leads the polarizing Harper almost the entire campaign and ends up winning 56-42. D Hold.

NM-Sen: Tom Udall retires after 18 years in Congress and is easily replaced by outgoing Governor Hector Balderas, who crushes a random State Rep. 58-39 and wins all but one county. D Hold.

NM-Row Officers: All row officers are term-limited, setting up a free-for-all. Some jump around seats, but Democrats sweep all offices.

NM-1: Michelle Lujan Grisham retires after 14 years in the House. She is replaced by State Treasurer Michael Padilla, aged 54 (r). D Hold.

NM-2: Steve Pearce retires. An institution in this region, he has not groomed any real successor but Democrats do not have a particularly active bench in this region. State Senator Howie Morales throws his hat in the ring and runs against Dona Ana State Rep. Trudy Ramirez (f), aged 28. The unusually young, moderate Hispanic Republican cuts into the traditional support of New Mexico Hispanics for Democrats and narrowly beats Morales 50-49 to hold this seat for the Republicans and become the youngest woman ever elected to the House (a few months younger than Amanda Kimball's record in 2024) and is the youngest member of the House. R Hold.

NM-3: Ben Ray Lujan surprises many when he elects not to seek another term in the House, especially since he was in leadership. He is succeeded by House Minority Leader Brian Egolf, aged 50. D Hold.

NM Legislature: Republicans lose their majority in the House, as Democrats pick up nine seats to retake the New Mexico House of Representatives 41-29.

Colorado

CO-Gov: Governor Bill Cadman, who assumed the position after Walker Stapleton was sworn in as Vice President, decides to seek a term in his own right over the protests of the national and state GOP. As a result, he alienates many moderates in his party who were recruiting Rick Lopez to make a run and would have been a favorite in the race. Democrats run Denver Mayor Mark Ferrandino, who defeats Cadman 53-45 to become the first openly gay Governor elected in his own right in American history. D Gain.

CO-Sen: Both Cory Gardner and Rick Lopez decline to run for Senator, denying Republicans their two best candidates. Instead, Republicans run State Senator Julia Croydon (f) against Jared Polis, who easily defeats her 56-41 in a blowout victory. D Hold.

CO Row Officers: Democrats sweep all three open row office seats for the first time, dispatching two incumbents and taking the open Treasurer seat.

CO-2: KC Becker retires after three terms. She is replaced by 29-year old Boulder City Councilwoman Alyse Picton-Sharp, a lesbian CU grad and marijuana entrepreneur (aka the most Boulder person ever conceived). Picton-Sharp becomes the youngest member of the Democratic caucus and is easily one of its most liberal members upon entry. D Hold.

CO-3: Rick Lopez is a top target of Democrats. After making peace with his decision not to seek the Governorship, he commits himself fully to running for his fourth term and in a rare debacle for Democrats on such a good night nationwide, the popular moderate Lopez wins 55-43 in a blowout much bigger than anyone could have imagined, even though he was strongly favored. R Hold.

CO-5: Ken Buck goes down! Dominick Moreno defeats Buck 52-46 in this D-trending suburban seat as openly-gay candidates continue to have a banner night in Colorado. D+1.

CO Leg: Democrats take three seats in the Senate to retake the chamber 20-15. In the House, meanwhile, Democrats gain eight seats to max out their map to 42-23, a daunting majority built on moderate Denver suburbs.

Wyoming

WY-Gov: Cynthia Cloud is term-limited and announces her retirement from politics. The winner of the Republican primary is Laramie County Sheriff Mark Tuxton, who has no trouble in a general without any serious Democratic opponent. R Hold.

WY-Sen: Mike Enzi, at 82, is elected to a sixth term in the Senate with no general election opposition.

WY Legislature: In America's most Republican state, the massive Republican majorities in the Wyoming legislature are unchallenged.

Montana

MT-Sen: The political world is stunned when first-term US Rep. Collin Tejada elects to not challenge Senator Steve Bullock and seek reelection instead - with the rumor being that he intends instead to run for Governor in 2028. With his most high-profile potential opponent out of the running, Bullock instead faces outgoing State Senator Kris Hansen, an Iraq War veteran and conservative woman. Though Hansen is highly-touted by the NRSC, Bullock winds up winning 52-46, a surprisingly wide margin. D Hold.

MT-AL: Collin Tejada does not face major Democratic opposition and winds up winning 51-47 over a no-name State Rep - this seat could be a choice target in 2028. R Hold.

MT-Leg: Democrats flip the Montana State Senate by picking up three seats, giving them a 26-24 majority. In the House, they pick up seven seats to effect a 53-47 minority. This gives them a check on Governor Tim Fox and the GOP-led House.

Idaho

ID-Gov: Right-wing US Rep. Curt McKenzie leaps into the primary and faces Speaker Brent Crane, who is himself pretty conservative but not at McKenzie's Labrador-esque levels. The primary becomes a showdown between the purist Labrador wing of the party and the business/Mormon establishment. Crane very narrowly defeats McKenzie, winning by only 600 votes, and McKenzie supporters sue for a recount and to overturn certain ballots. Though a recount and court investigation narrows the margin to 417 votes, the results are certified and Brent Crane goes on to win the Idaho Governorship in the general by a margin of ten points over Boise State Senator Carolyn Ruiz-Martin.

ID-Sen: Brad Little thumps his way to another term in the Senate, his promised last one.

ID-1: Mike Simpson retires after 28 years in the House. As expected, the primary becomes a North Idaho libertarian vs. East Idaho Mormon affair, pitting State Rep. Dana Pyle (f) of Sandpoint against moderate-by-Idaho-standards State Senator Matt Reeve of Rexburg. Reeve runs up the margin in his strongest area and wins the primary, tantamount to election. The Mormon Reeve easily wins the general with nearly 70% of the vote.

ID-2: Curt McKenzie's retirement leaves this Boise-area seat open. Outgoing Governor Brandon Woolf, pledging to serve no more than four terms, clears the primary field and is easily elected.

ID Legislature: Democrats pick up one Senate seat and three in the House - not even close to what they need to make a difference.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Utah

UT 1: Rob Bishop retires after 24 years in the House as a backbencher. In this Safe R North Utah district, among the most Republican in the United States, he is replaced by State Senator Tim Morrison (f), aged 42. Morrison is LDS, obviously. R Hold.

UT Legislature: Democrats gain two seats in the Senate - a landslide by Utah standards - to cut their margin to 21-8. In the House, they gain five seats to go to 54-21. This counts as a pretty good year in such an ancestrally and instinctively Republican state.

Nevada

NV Gov: In a major blow on Brian Sandoval's home turf, Joe Heck is defeated by Attorney General Ross Miller, who defeats him by running up a monster margin in Las Vegas 52-45. It is a bad loss too because of Heck's initial popularity and fairly moderate profile in the swing state. D Gain.

NV Row Officers: Democrats sweep all statewide offices.

NV 3: Michael Roberson goes down in this suburban Las Vegas seat to longtime State Senator Aaron Ford, who has bided his time waiting for the moment to strike. Ford wins 51-46. D+1.

NV 4: Amanda Kimball, the youngest member of the House at 30, goes down in flames in her North Clark-based seat, losing 56-40 to Armando Beloque (f), a State Rep. and union organizer, aged 33. It is the race featuring the two youngest candidates in the country. D+1.

NV Legislature: Earlier, KingSweden wrote that Wisconsin was the only state where Democrats flipped both houses of the state legislature. KingSweden lied. Democrats take two seats in the Senate to take it back 12-9, and take six seats in the House to take it back 26-16.

Arizona

AZ Gov: Ben Quayle, one of the most unpopular Governors in the country and lording over one of the most dysfunctional states for people who aren't snowbirds, is challenged by former Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema, a moderate with statewide experience, winds up crushing Quayle 54-43, a much bigger margin than expected, as she wins a blowout victory in Phoenix and actually winds up barely losing Maricopa. D Gain.

AZ 2: Martha McSally, facing a difficult reelection campaign after 12 years in the House without any particularly good committee assignments, elects to retire, denying the GOP their best chance of holding this swingy district. Things get worse when conservative activist Johnny Kompert (f) wins the nomination. He narrowly dispatched by Democrat Israel Peron (f), aged 35, who is not a grade-A candidate himself by any means. Peron wins 50-48. D+1.

AZ 8: Trent Franks calls it a career. Though his district is one of the few Phoenix-area GOP seats to be measurably trending D, it isn't there yet by any means and Franks' successor in the primary, Joe Onah (f), aged 45, wins the general 55-45. R Hold.

AZ Legislature: Democrats flip three Senate seats - two in the Phoenix metro and one in Tucson - to take the Arizona Senate 16-14. In the House, meanwhile, they gain seven seats to go to 32-28.

[Türkisblau]

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[KingSweden]

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Thank you, that is very kind.

United States elections, 2026

Washington

WA-1: 36-year old freshman US Rep. Jody Kyle is defeated by Bellingham-area State Senator Alyssa Knight (f), aged 33, in another 2026 round of millennial vs. millennial. Knight, very liberal, wins by a surprising 55-45 over the moderate Kyle in this swingy exurban/rural district, a much bigger margin than anticipated. D+1.

WA-3: The Democratic wave on the west coast continues here as US Rep. Liz Pike goes down against Longview State Senator JD Rossetti, aged 45, losing 53-47. D+1.

WA-5: In the biggest surprise of the night, the district that threw out Speaker Tom Foley in the 1994 Republican Revolution chucks Speaker-in-waiting Cathy McMorris-Rodgers out after 22 years in the House. It is just as seismic an event for the growing Spokane area as Cathy (KingSweden's Congresswoman) loses to State Senator Marcus Riccelli (r), aged 48, in a 51-49 contest. D+1, and a massive one at that. Aspiring politicians in Washington's 5th will think twice about trying to become Speaker in the future after this essentially happens a second time.

WA-6: US Rep. Drew MacEwen, in an ancestrally Democratic but heavily white working-class district, is narrowly defeated by Olympia State Senator Chris Reykdal (r), aged 54, losing 52-48. D+1, but this area is not trending towards Democrats in the least long term.

WA Legislature: Democrats have an outstanding night in the Washington State legislature, flipping an unexpected six seats in the Senate, taking down longtime Republicans like Mike Baumgartner, Andy Hill, Joe Fain and Jan Angle. The final Senate seat count winds up being 32-17. In the House, meanwhile, Democratic Speaker Steve Bergquist's majority grows by 13 members, giving Democrats a 63-35 majority.

Oregon

OR-Gov: Greg Walden faces a hostile electorate after four up-and-down years, the last two with a friendly Senate. Despite a fairly moderate agenda, he is still attacked by Democrats and faces former US Rep. Chris Edwards in the general, where he loses 52-44. D Gain.

OR-Sen: Jeff Merkley retires after 18 years in the Senate and Oregon Democrats quickly coalesce around House Speaker Tobias Read, aged 51 (r). Read easily blows out Republican House Minority Leader Tom Cubby (f). D Hold.

OR-4: US Rep. Tony Cooney is defeated by Eugene State Rep. Steve Kai (f), aged 33. He loses 55-43 after two unprobable wins. D+1.

OR-5: Larry George is defeated by Sara Gelser, who seeks a rematch after four years. Gelser wins 52-46. D+1.

OR-6: Shemia Fagan also seeks a rematch against US Rep. Mark Johnson, whom she defeats 53-44. D+1.

OR Legislature: Democrats pick up seven seats in the House to boost their majority to 39-21. Democrats retake the three seats lost in 2022 to capture the Senate with a 17-13 majority.

Hawaii

HI-Gov: Nothing to see here. Shan Tsutsui is reelected by a landslide over ex-Naval officer Tim Kohler (f).

Both Reps. are reelected.

HI Legislature: Democrats actually cut the GOP Senate caucus down to zero - there are no Republicans left in the Hawaii Senate. Meanwhile, they slash the House caucus down to three from six. Monster margins in both chambers maintained.

Alaska

AK-Gov: Murkowski faces former Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz in a showdown for the Last Frontier's governorship. Despite the GOP collapse nationwide - one felt even in far-flung Alaska - Murkowski's tremendous network in the state and the state's growing economy bails her out, 51-47 in a close contest. R Hold.

AK-Sen: Dan Sullivan goes down as Mark Begich makes his belated return to politics after 12 years out of office. Begich runs a superb campaign , maxes out the vote on the reservations and in Anchorage and wins over the growing "telecommunity" of outdoorsy, granola-y liberals who live in Alaska and work remotely. Begich wins 50-48. D Gain, and Democrats have enough seats to guarantee control of the United States Senate.

AK-AL: Joe Miller goes down in flames against Anchorage Mayor Chris Tuck, aged 60, who wins a narrow race over the polarizing Miller 49-48. There are prevalent but unsubstantiated rumors that Sandoval-affiliated outside groups quietly shuffled money to Tuck to defeat Miller, an antagonist of the administration. D+1.

AK Legislature: While Democrats see very modest gains here, Republicans hold both houses - the House narrowly, 21-19, and the Senate comfortably, 12-8.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

Florida

FL-Gov: US Rep. Darren Soto challenges Governor Carlos Curbelo in a showdown between Orlando Puerto Rican and Miami Cuban. Though Curbelo narrowly leads initially, Soto opens up a narrow lead in early summer and then a wider lead in the fall, eventually prevailing 53-46. D Gain.

FL-Row Officers: A Democratic sweep for the first time in the 21st century, including the traditionally Republican office of Ag Secretary. A major coup in this state.

FL-3: Chuck Perlman defeated by former FSU student President and Graham/Murphy campaign offiicial Amanda Perkins, aged 31, who maximizes her turnout in the college towns of this district to win 53-46. D+1

FL-5: The primary in this Orlando-area seat to replace Darren Soto gets heated, eventually producing fellow Puerto Rican Peter Esposito (f), aged 33. D Hold

FL-7: Jay Fant is defeated in this Jacksonville-centric district 51-47 by a rare beast - a black Conservadem, State Rep. Tim Nebbins (f), aged 41. D+1

FL-8: Travis Hutson reelected by the skin of his teeth over State Rep. Louise Anama (f), winning 49-48. R Hold.

FL-12: Rich Nugent retires after 16 years in the House, and is replaced in his modestly GOP district by State Senator Allan Williams, who barely wins 50-49 over Democrat Howard Ford. R Hold

FL-17: Rick Pallota, one of the two Congressmen at the center of Attorneygate, is defeated in a landslide by investment adviser Ryan Blazer, aged 34 (f), 55-44. It is one of the biggest losses by an incumbent all night. D+1

FL Legislature: Republicans lose three seats in the Senate to effect a 20-20 tie in the chamber, a unique situation in this body. They lose eleven seats in the House, meanwhile, to drop to 62-58, barely hanging on to the chamber.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2026

California

CA-Gov: Newsom is forced into retirement by term limits and this sets up an epic clash between AG Ben Allen and LG Dave Jones, also both term-limited. They both advance to the Top Two, a debacle for Republicans as their preferred candidate, Ashley Swearengin, falls just shy in the jungle. Despite being a little more liberal, Allen's SoCal base helps push him over the top narrowly 51-49 in the Dem-on-Dem Governor's race. D Hold, obviously.

CA Row Officers: As almost everyone is term limited except for Treasurer Chris Toole, this turns into a wild free-for-all. Superintendent Tony Mendoza is elected Lieutenant Governor, San Francisco District Attorney Jane Fordyce (f) is elected AG at the tender age of 40, State Sen. Jacqui Irwin is elected Comptroller, and State Senator Ellyn Ruiz (f) is elected SOS. All remain Democratic-held.

CA-4: Tom McClintock faces a very competitive race in this suburban/rural Sacramento-area district, challenged by trial lawyer Scott Reynolds. McClintock leads by a wide margin most of the year, including a big win in the Top Two, but only wins 51-49 in the general. R Hold.

CA-7: Jerry McNerney, the great dull backbencher, retires after 20 unremarkable years in Congress. He is replaced in this Stockton-area district by State Rep. David Franke (f), aged 50, who only wins 52-48 against a local Republican businessman in a surprisingly competitive race belying Franke's abysmal campaign and the long-standing economic doldrums in the Stockton area exacerbated by the current recession. D Hold.

CA-8: Cannella narrowly defeats Democrat Arturo Pinal (f) 52-48. R Hold.

CA-12: Speier retires. She is replaced by State Representative Melissa Chase-Akita in this uber-safe Democratic district.

CA-14: Honda retires and is replaced by his longtime Democratic nemesis Ro Khanna.

CA-19: Sam Farr retires after 36 years in the House and is replaced by Jimmy Panetta (r), aged 53, the son of Leon Panetta. D Hold.

CA-20: Ashley Swearengin's retirement opens up this seat, which is won by Fresno Mayor Henry Perea, aged 49 over Swearengin staffer Michael Rook (f), 54-46. D+1.

CA-21: David Valadao is defeated by moderate Democrat Adam Lopez (f), a first-time candidate and longtime political activist in the Central Valley, aged 32, 52-48. D+1.

CA-25: Tony Strickland is defeated by John Bolling (f), aged 54, a real estate developer and longtime Democratic donor. D+1.

CA-26: Julia Brownley retires after 14 years in the House. She is replaced in her Democratic-leaning district by term-limited SOS Matt Dababneh, whose statewide infrastructure helps him beat out a more liberal candidate in the jungle and easily dispatch a Republican in the Top Two. D Hold.

CA-30: Brad Sherman retires after 30 years in the House. In this very Democratic San Fernando Valley district, he is replaced by State Rep. McKenna Rhys (f), aged 35. She wins 55-45. D Hold.

CA-39: Ed Royce retires after 32 years (with a one-year, bizarre interruption) in Congress. His district has trended into swing territory by the mid-2020s and former Congresswoman Ashley Force Hood runs to return to Congress after eight years. The former racecar driver fails - by a wide margin - to advance to the Top Two after running an abysmal campaign based almost entirely on vague name recognition and liberal policy in a still R+ PVI district, and the campaign pits Vietnamese-American Republican Mike Nguyen (f), aged 41, against Japanese-American Tom Kurosawa (f), aged 38. Kurosawa wins 51-49 in this narrowly split district, with Nguyen almost immediately announcing his intention to challenge the moderate Kurosawa in 2028. D+1.

CA-46: Linda Sanchez retires after 24 years in Congress. In one of Orange County's few Democratic-friendly districts (though that is changing in North County), she is replaced by Erica Ramirez (f), aged 46, who wins 56-44 in the general. Like Sanchez, Ramirez is fairly moderate. D Hold.

CA-49: Dana Rohrabacher, the dean of the Republican delegation (and maybe the entire California delegation at this point) retires from his OC-based district after 38 years in the House. In this very-Safe Republican district (though it is a few more points D than in present day), he is replaced by Rajiv Rathod (f), aged 47, a one-term State Representative and wealthy businessman, who becomes the first Hindu Republican in Congress. R Hold.

CA-50: Darrell Issa retires after 24 years in the House. Though his district has trended to R+2 since present day, Republicans narrowly hang on here 51-49 with Carlsbad State Rep. Mindy Trice (F), aged 38. R Hold, but this is a top target for Team D in 2028.

CA-54: Susan Davis retires at age 82 after 26 years in the House. She is replaced in this San Diego-based district by State Senator David Alvarez (r), aged 46. D Hold.

CA Legislature: Democrats pick up two seats in the Senate, both in surprise battleground Orange County, to go to 27-13. In the Assembly, meanwhile, they pick up nine seats to boost their majority to 59-21.