Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 Federal Election Niagara Falls riding:

Niagara-on-the-Lake: Conservative 59.2%, NDP 16.1%, Liberal 17.8%
Niagara Falls:  Conservative 51.3%, NDP 24.5%, Liberal 19.8%
Fort Erie:  Conservative 53.1%, NDP 27.6%, Liberal 13.6%

Harper New Democrats? 

Why not? Such a thing helped the NDP win in London West, I'm sure. Maybe not to the same degree though.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP insiders expect another budget deal if the Tories win Niagara. I'm still skeptical Horwath pulls the trigger, regardless of what she says about transit taxes. So long as she can have her cake and eat it in public opinion...

[Holmes]

Assuming Forum holds tomorrow, who'll get more media crap: Wynne or Hudak?

Wynne. Despite his hometown being in the riding, Hudak has nothing to lose in the race.

[lilTommy]

Assuming Forum holds tomorrow, who'll get more media crap: Wynne or Hudak?

Wynne. Despite his hometown being in the riding, Hudak has nothing to lose in the race.

I don't know; At the get go Hudak/PCs were leading the polls in both ridings... As long as the PCs win Thornhill the media will be more harsh to Wynne, raving for Horwath and neutral on Hudak. Basically he will survive as leader, if he losses both... i could see a leadership revolt happeneing (already there is a ground swell of anger at Hudak's policies)

[DL]

Assuming Forum holds tomorrow, who'll get more media crap: Wynne or Hudak?

Wynne. Despite his hometown being in the riding, Hudak has nothing to lose in the race.

I don't know; At the get go Hudak/PCs were leading the polls in both ridings... As long as the PCs win Thornhill the media will be more harsh to Wynne, raving for Horwath and neutral on Hudak. Basically he will survive as leader, if he losses both... i could see a leadership revolt happeneing (already there is a ground swell of anger at Hudak's policies)

The thing is for Hudak - he needs to WIN the next election. Of all of the ridings that the PCs did not win in the last election - Niagara Falls is the one they lost by the narrowest margin. In other words it is the lowest hanging fruit in the entire province for the PCs - plus it includes Hudak's hometown, plus the same riding went to the federal Tories by a 30 point landslide in 2011. If Hudak cannot take Niagara Falls from the Liberals and it goes NDP instead - it begs the question - are there ANY ridings in the whole province that the PCs can gain.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah if Hudak can't win in London West or Niagara Falls, how can he form a government?

[King of Kensington]

Well, maybe it's just a Thornhill phenomena, but the most Jewish part of the riding went 75% Tory. So....

Right...I'm not sure if you're expressing agreement or disagreement.

I think Steve Paikin's take on it is pretty apt: in Orthodox polls, “the Ontario PC Party got almost all the votes."

http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/what-really-happened-thornhill

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my obligatory blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/02/provincial-by-elections-today-in-ontario.html

It also includes a breakdown of the 2011 Thornhill results by ward.

[RogueBeaver]

GE dynamics could be rather different, needless to say. Niagara seems a repeat of LW where the Tories stall and the Grits crash. Here's a graph courtesy of UC's Paul Fairie, whom I follow on Twitter. Yet the OLP remains ahead in the polls, no one's touching their GTA redoubt. Meanwhile the opposition parties are neck-and-neck. IIRC Ipsos detailed who bleeds to whom last fall, forget the poll now.




Another Fairie graph, this one applying the by-election swing provincewide. 2011 federally, basically. Not that this'll happen (though I'd love to see the OLP in 3rd) but an interesting thought experiment.

[King of Kensington]

Here's my obligatory blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/02/provincial-by-elections-today-in-ontario.html

It also includes a breakdown of the 2011 Thornhill results by ward.

Nicely done.

[RogueBeaver]

Leaders' polling must echo Forum: Wynne and Hudak are in Thornhill, Horwath in Niagara.

[adma]

If Hudak cannot take Niagara Falls from the Liberals and it goes NDP instead - it begs the question - are there ANY ridings in the whole province that the PCs can gain.

Ones where the NDP isn't such a factor? (i.e. 905, et al)

[toaster]

If the PCs lose Niagara Falls, I am confident they will be a non-factor in the general election.  These seats (London West, Niagara Falls, K-W) are ridings that Hudak should be winning if he has any shot at forming government.  Northern Ontario and the 416 will likely remain NDP, and/or Liberal for the majority.  You can't win an election with only the 905.

Anyway, excited to see the results!  Polls close in about 25 minutes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leaders' polling must echo Forum: Wynne and Hudak are in Thornhill, Horwath in Niagara.

Even if the polls were different, I don't see many scenarios where the leaders would be in different ridings.

If the PCs lose Niagara Falls, I am confident they will be a non-factor in the general election.  These seats (London West, Niagara Falls, K-W) are ridings that Hudak should be winning if he has any shot at forming government.  Northern Ontario and the 416 will likely remain NDP, and/or Liberal for the majority.  You can't win an election with only the 905.

Anyway, excited to see the results!  Polls close in about 25 minutes.

Well, 905+rural Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

1/280 polls reporting in Thornhill

PCs lead 24-23

[Hatman 🍁]

2/280 in Thornhill

Tories lead 29-28

[Linus Van Pelt]

John Turmel is running in Thornhill under the party label "Paupers".

[Hatman 🍁]

5 / 263 polls reporting in Niagara Falls

PC: 114
NDP: 55
Lib: 49

[RogueBeaver]

Too early to tell, or is something up? It'd be hilarious if the Tories won Niagara, Grits Thornhill.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP now ahead in Niagara

[Linus Van Pelt]

Too early to tell, or is something up? It'd be hilarious if the Tories won Niagara, Grits Thornhill.

The thing about a riding like Niagara Falls is that you never know if the first few are rural polls which would go Tory regardless of who won.

[RogueBeaver]

Still too early to tell? I'm not liking those trendlines.

[toaster]

Wow!  If Hudak loses Thornhill, that would be something!

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm starting to sense a trend in FR polls in terms of over estimating Tory vote. They're good at catching NDP surges however!

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm starting to sense a trend in FR polls in terms of over estimating Tory vote. They're good at catching NDP surges however!

Weren't they the people who had the Liberals way ahead in Brandon-Souris, though?