2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Mexican Wolf]

Huckabee-Sanders and Jones are both currently winning over 80% of the vote in their primaries with about 15% in.

[Mexican Wolf]

What are the chances that Perdue runs as a third party candidate?

Very low, since he's already endorsed Kemp:

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1529258797130293248

[Mexican Wolf]

Cuellar's lead is down to 384 votes on CNN.

[Mexican Wolf]

Joy Hofmeister got the nod for OK-Gov.

[Mexican Wolf]

Joy Hofmeister got the nod for OK-Gov.

She was literally a Republican until a year ago or something

Yep, she switched parties back in October, over disagreements with the way Stitt handled COVID and education policy.

[Mexican Wolf]

Joy Hofmeister got the nod for OK-Gov.

She was literally a Republican until a year ago or something

Yep, she switched parties back in October.

As a statewide elected official, a baffling if brave move.

I wonder if, given how polarized things currently are, Hofmeister will perform about the same as a standard/longtime Democrat candidate, or if there'll be any interesting over- or underperformances in certain areas by her in the general.

[Mexican Wolf]

If Madison Horn wins the runoff for the general OK senate race, it'll be a shame if she and Kendra don't team up to make some joint ads with the tagline: "Mess with the bull, get the Horns!"

[Mexican Wolf]

Busch Valentine with a decent early lead over Kunce, 50.9% to 26.7% with around 1,800 votes in.

[Mexican Wolf]

It's probably a little difficult to tell given that it's a referendum rather than a D vs. R race, but what benchmarks would "No" need to hit in Shawnee, Johnson, Wyandotte, Sedgwick, Riley, etc. to have a strong chance of prevailing statewide?

[Mexican Wolf]

No is outrunning Biden by exactly 25 points in rural Harvey County

Harvey went for Kelly in 2018, right?

[Mexican Wolf]

Kornacki just noted they messed up the reporting in Douglas County to make it look like it was 87% Yes lol.

And still with that No was easily up!

Oh, good, I was getting a little confused haha. That would've made no sense given how No is running in every other county so far.

[Mexican Wolf]

With 16% in, Meijer has narrowed the gap with Gibbs to 41.7% to 58.3% according to CNN.

[Mexican Wolf]

I’m stunned by these results so far , as this is far worse than I thought it would be

Tbh, I thought this was going to be fairly close until I saw that the amendment didn't even include exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. That's when I realized it was going to go down in a landslide (thankfully).

[Mexican Wolf]

Very happy the amendment failed!

[Mexican Wolf]

For all the intellectual criticism some might have for "wishy-washy" positions on abortion, those are in fact more popular than "absolutist" ones, among voters. In a referendum, pandering to voters by making your position look reasonable is important to win.

That was pretty much the point I wanted to make too.

[Mexican Wolf]

Kobach's leading by 157 votes on CNN right now. Repeat of the 2018 Governor's primary?

[Mexican Wolf]

I wanted to follow the live blog on RRH Elections tonight too like I usually do on election nights, but it keeps giving me a database error whenever I try to reach the site.

[Mexican Wolf]

But yah my rating for MI Governor now is a strong Lean D as I think Whitmer has a 65% chance of being reelected

I agree, especially with Donna Brandenburg and Mellissa Carone running third party and potentially drawing some more Republican votes away from Tudor Dixon.

[Mexican Wolf]

I mean is this that different from Medicaid expansion referedums where if the emphasis is on one issue they all vote for it.

That's probably the best comparison to make.

[Mexican Wolf]

Busch Valentine has maintained a solid 6% to 10% lead against Kunce for most of the night so far. Seems pretty likely to me she'll be the nominee.

[Mexican Wolf]

Masters is leading by 6% in the Senate race over Lamon, with Brnovich in third.

[Mexican Wolf]

Hobbs got the call already from CNN.

[Mexican Wolf]

Really sucks that Welch had to run,  Balint probably would've had a real good chance to be Senator.

She can easily run the next time there’s an open seat and win the nomination. Between Sanders and Welch, she….. might not have to wait a long time.

Blows my mind that Democrats coronated a 75 year old for a safe seat.

16 years as the state's only House representative did wonders for both Sanders's and Welch's Senate ambitions.

[Mexican Wolf]

I'm surprised to see how close the Cheney-Hageman race is so far (although it's still very early).

[Mexican Wolf]

Cheney takes Teton as expected. Anyone ever been there?

Yep, lovely area, especially the Grand Tetons.