Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

I heard from a source close to Beto that he is going to run against Abbott.

It’s been rumored for a long time. What’s the source?

[Real Texan Politics]

Sooooooo.........Gene Wu not running and endorsing Beto?
https://twitter.com/GeneforTexas/status/1435429414649663490?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

New drinking game.

Take a drink anytime a post mentioning Beto is followed up by the "Hell yes we'll take your AK-15s" quote

Do the same every time an attack ad mentions the quote too.

[Real Texan Politics]

Something tells me the potential dem candidates are probably waiting for Beto to make a decision before they jump in the race, considering Beto is practically a shoe-in to the nomination.

Probably explains why no dem has announced besides a public educator with no wikipedia page.

[Real Texan Politics]

Let’s see if he’ll follow through with that.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GiancarloSopo/status/1439627663438716934


He’s underwater by 12 points overall in Texas

The Texas GOP better do some good campaigning down in south Texas, especially in the RGV and maybe Laredo, Del Rio, and El Paso. Hit Beto and the dems on the border crisis, and show the images and videos in attack ads, that could be a good strategy.

But the doomer side of me thinks they'll just play the "hell yes" quote 100 times before they show any of that.

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm trying to imagine a possible scenario where O'Rourke is the Democratic nominee and McConaughey runs as a independent candidate. Abbott would probably win in such a scenario, but possibly with only a plurality-like Rick Perry in 2006.

The other problem is Texas was more safe republican in 2006 than today, and I don’t think Rick Perry was as polarizing then as Abbott is today. I also don’t know where Matthew’s votes would come from besides suburban undecideds. It’s possible he could do better with independent suburban moms than Beto, possibly leading to him winning a county like Collin if he were the dem nominee instead of Beto (who most likely won’t win Collin unless Matthew steps in).

If Matthew steps in, whether as a dem or third party, I’m moving Texas from likely R to tossup. Yup, I just said it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Beta o'dork once SHAMEFULLY said that churches that oppose gay marriage should lose their tax exemptions.

That was awful and even got pushback by some liberals.

Beta O'dork is damaged goods. He is authoritarian.

Agreed.  O'Rourke needs to fully commit to this proposition and call for ALL churches to lose their tax exemptions.  

That alone is another several points added to Abbott's margin of victory.

[Real Texan Politics]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

Eh the random Spanish in the debate was pretty cringe.

He'll do it on the campaign trail, especially in the hispanic heavy areas of Texas. He'll probably speak spanish again during the gubernatorial debate.

[Real Texan Politics]

I take it this thread is gonna be nothing but comments regarding the gun line for the next year?

At this point "hell yes" is to Beto what "I'm not a crook" is to Nixon.

[Real Texan Politics]

Texas Dems need to run someone who is tough but fair on immigration and someone who is not gaffe prone...

The gun thing was O'Rourke's only "gaffe" in about 3 years if IIRC....

It's a pretty big one for running in Texas though.

and it was over a year and half ago.

Americans do indeed have short-term memories, but the Republican Party doesn't and will use that against him. Guaranteed. And it may be enough for him to not have a chance at all.

And there's so many other things to attack Beto on, so I hope republicans don't waste all their attack ad energy on just that one quote.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2021/09/29/matthew-dowd-former-george-w-bush-strategist-to-run-as-democrat-for-texas-lieutenant-governor/

Former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd running for Lt Gov as a Democrat. This should be interesting...

So basically a Lincoln Project democrat? Gotcha...

https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2021/09/29/matthew-dowd-former-george-w-bush-strategist-to-run-as-democrat-for-texas-lieutenant-governor/

Former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd running for Lt Gov as a Democrat. This should be interesting...

I doubt he'll get anywhere. Assuming he wins the primary, he'll almost certainly lose to Patrick.

So far the only other candidate is Mike Collier, who was the nominee for Lt Gov in 2018, where he lost to Patrick by 5.

[Real Texan Politics]

Likely R.....but the only way a Democrat wins is if Allen West is the nominee

West and Huffines would still win, even if their margins are less than Abbott's.

[Real Texan Politics]

Likely R -> Safe D
https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1445509367437004813?s=20
Obviously kidding, but this could energize youth turnout quite a bit.

[Real Texan Politics]

Guys.......
https://twitter.com/houtopia/status/1445817177567760384?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

Looks like McConaughey isn’t running after all, according to the Houston Chronicle.

https://www.chron.com/politics/article/Matthew-McConaughey-Texas-governor-run-Abbott-16515854.php

[Real Texan Politics]

Bump. I'm expecting an announcement by Thanksgiving?
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1456999816551096322?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

Something else this thread missed, Ron Paul has endorsed Huffines for governor, just like his son Rand previously did.

Also, could the DGA pour more resources into Texas than Florida?

[Real Texan Politics]

Third time's a charm?

[Real Texan Politics]

Well that's pretty much the race. With Beto now in, he's a shoe-in to the democratic nomination. I expect just about every high profile Texas democrat to endorse him for governor.

Abbott will most likely win his primary, but it will definitely be more competitive than the democratic primary (even if neither are really all that competitive in the first place). While Beto will likely win every county in his primary except for a few rural ones where no one votes in the dem primary, there's a chance that one of Abbott's challengers (likely Huffines and/or West) may win a few rural counties in the republican primary, though this won't change the fact that Abbott is most likely to win the primary.

As of right now, my prediction for the race is R+9-10. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely only hold on by around 5-6. Beto, due to his higher profile status, will almost certainly do a much better job at energizing voters than Lupe Valdez in 2018, not to mention this will highly likely become a nationalized race. It also helps Beto and the dems that there are multiple big issues to run on against Abbott and the republicans, most notably the power grid failure, abortion, guns, and voting rights. On the other hand, Abbott and the GOP have their own issues to energize their base on, most notably the economy, border crisis, medical freedom, oil and gas, and education/CRT. If we start seeing multiple scandals arise from schools in Texas, the latter issue will certainly help Abbott just like it did with Youngkin in Virginia this year.

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

[Real Texan Politics]

Those are just my 2 cents for right now. Let me know what y'all think!

I think it's gotta be worth more than two cents
Great analysis!

I'm surprised you didn't mention O'Rourke's unpopularity and extreme failure in polls, though
Do you expect that Democrat-leaners who may have been turned off by his comments may be forced into his lane due to polarization and nationalization, or will they look towards Abbott's relative moderate image (if he has one)?

Also, what do you expect to occur in the crucial counties of Tarrant, Collin, and Denton?

All 3 are swinging dem from 2018, but won't vote as dem as they did in 2020, especially since statewide republicans do a lot better than Trump in Texas.

I'd expect Tarrant to be somewhere around R+7, Collin R+9, Denton R+13. Each of them could be a couple points more republican that I stated, but still close to that number.

To answer your other question, I think much of the stuff that went down this year (power grid, abortion bill, etc) has made Abbott a more polarizing figure than 2018. Yes, Beto's comments will hurt him, especially the "hell yes" and taxing churches gaffes from his presidential campaign. Yes, those said comments will be on every attack ad towards Beto this time. There are certainly gonna be some dems who may have been turned off by those comments who come back to him because the alternative is "mUh Texas Taliban." Although if Matthew McConaughey decides to step in as an independent, we could see many of those voters flock to him instead, making for a very interesting 3-way race.

[Real Texan Politics]

If Beto O'Rourke ever holds elected office again in my life, I will send my Social Security Number to each of the next ten people to post in this thread. You can quote this comment if it's ever relevant (which it won't be).

So this thread as well?

I guess so

[Real Texan Politics]

The chances of this race becoming a tossup have collapsed completely to the ground after that announcement.

Not like Matthew would've won anyways, although it would've been interesting to see where a lot of his votes would be stolen from.

I'll even be bold and say he probably would've gotten second place in Travis County due to his connections to Austin, and maybe second place (or even winning) Uvalde County as he was born in Uvalde, although those are probably pretty stupid arguments anyways, nor are they happening now that he's no longer running.

Although it does seem that he's leaving the door open for a political run for something in the future, whichever that may be. Mayor of Austin maybe??

[Real Texan Politics]

Obviously I expect Abbott to win, but I'm conflicted about the margin.

On one hand, the national environment is likely to be much better for the GOP compared to 2018 and O'Rourke, despite being well-known and well-funded compared to Valdez, has a lot of liabilities.

But at the same time, it seems like Abbott's popularity has really declined this year. So it's hard to say exactly what happens.

As I've said before, Beto's star power in Texas politics will almost certainly make him a much more energetic dem candidate than Valdez, and him almost beating Cruz could convince a lot of dems that he'll do the same to Abbott (or even beat him entirely).

But while Beto will very likely out-perform Valdez on just about every metric, funding, energy, polling, general election results, you name it, and while Abbott is much more polarizing and less popular than he was in 2018, it's still a long shot for Beto to even become governor, and that's not to mention 2022 is set to be a pretty strong red wave year. Just as Abbott has become more polarizing, so has Beto.

Right now I'm standing by my R+9-10 prediction, give or take a couple depending on circumstances that occur between now and November 8, 2022.

[Real Texan Politics]

These Lincoln Project types are just such a joke, example god knows what.

I could see Kinzinger switching parties and running for something as like a “I didn’t leave the GOP, the GOP left me” kinda candidate like Dowd, especially considering how Kinzinger’s been voting lately.