Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Assuming he runs, first Prather, now this goof? Abbott should have an easy time for renomination.

Prather won't even get close to the top 3. West may have a very slight shot but it's not a big one. He probably gets 2nd place in the primaries with Huffines in 3rd and everyone else below 1-2%.

[Real Texan Politics]

I hope Beto announces, we need a candidate for Gov as McCounghey is cheering on Beto, he probably isn't running

If Beto runs, McConaughey probably doesn't and ends up endorsing Beto.

And I also would agree that I think the ERCOT power grid situation could possibly be the biggest election issue in Texas assuming it's still an issue come November 2022. If the election was held today it most certainly would, but Abbott would probably still be the favorite (albeit maybe a bit narrowly).

[Real Texan Politics]

Could we see him tease or announce a run for governor here?

And honestly if Beto runs, I doubt even Julian or Joaquin Castro would run either.
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1405607504839643148?s=21

[Real Texan Politics]

After "hell ya we're coming for your guns" (or whatever he said along those lines on the debate stage), I doubt Beto could win state wide in Texas. If I was the Texas Democratic Party, I'd be pushing Mathew McConaughey to "Make Texas Alright, Alright, Alright again."

Part of me thinks the “hell yes” comments won’t hurt him as much as some people think, but rather his church taxing comments could be what hurts him more. A lot of hispanics in Texas are VERY religious, and those comments could cause another south Texas rightward swing if they are played very commonly in attack ads.

[Real Texan Politics]

This may be too far for some voters, so I wonder if his approval rating could take a minor dip?
https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1405526649425199111?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

Can instagram stories now count as political signs? Because my old friends from high school won't shut up about Abbott signing that gun law and banning CRT.

[Real Texan Politics]

I find it very odd that she posted a link to her campaign website on a PredictIt discussion for the dem nominee for TX-GOV, but we now have a declared candidate! (albeit a minor one)

May I introduce to you Deirdre Gilbert from Missouri City, Texas!

https://gilbert4gov.com/

Heads up though Wikipedia has no mention of her for democratic candidates, and her twitter account only has 21 followers with only a few of her tweets even having only 1 like. She's got no shot at the nomination, and probably won't even make it to a debate stage.

[Real Texan Politics]

And THIS is their strategy??
https://twitter.com/Blue_Texas2022/status/1406040651137961986?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

And THIS is their strategy??
https://twitter.com/Blue_Texas2022/status/1406040651137961986?s=20

No, this is just some random Twitter account.

Resist libs crack me up. That one's got almost 72K followers though, then again most Texas followers are probably from the suburbs of Dallas or Austin or Houston or whatever.

[Real Texan Politics]

Allen West is officially in.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/04/allen-west-greg-abbott-texas-governor-election/

[Real Texan Politics]

TX is Safe R, McCounghey isn't even a candidate and if he is he is loosing by 1, lol Abbott is gonna win primary

That’s just one poll that says he’ll lose by one, and when a poll comes out showing McConaughey winning by double digits, I’ve got a feeling you’ll be basing your prediction based on that.

But yes, Abbott will win the primary. Could be slightly more competitive now with West in the race, but Abbott should still pull it off. West is probably the only challenger I see that may actually win a county or two or a few in the primary against Abbott.

[Real Texan Politics]

I noticed Beto is trending on twitter, fueled by speculation (and wishful thinking) of him entering the gubernatorial race; possibly also fueled by this tweet from Beto:
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1413303263970185216?s=20

Also seeing a lot of anti-McConaughey sentiment among the Beto supporters, many of them praising his work for Texas, but don't want another entertainer as their leader. Some even suggested Matthew should support Beto, which I could see happening if Beto announces first.

[Real Texan Politics]

If I had to guess, Huffines and West will likely split the MAGA vote and make Abbott the winner.

[Real Texan Politics]

Strong 2006 vibes here.

More likely if Matthew runs.

[Real Texan Politics]

It's been a month, time for a bump.

So all those new laws in Texas have gone into effect today, including the controversial heartbeat bill and permitless carry bill.

How could these new laws shape the race in one year? I could see more energized anger turnout from dems, but Abbott is still the clear favorite for now (even if his polling numbers start dwindling like DeSantis).

[Real Texan Politics]

Can anyone vote in either primary in TX or is it restricted by party?  Like could Dems sabotage Abbott by voting for West?  In Virginia you can just take either primary ballot (when the GOP decides to actually have primaries that is).

Yes.

In Texas, we don't really have partisan registration.

Everyone is independent. But once you vote in a party's primary, you are with that party for the calendar year. You can't vote in the runoff for the other party.

Damn, why is Lincoln Project not all over this yet.  This calls for Dem dirty tricks.

Like the Lincoln Project would do anything

If anything they'll just endorse the democrat. They even campaigned against Susan Collins in 2020, arguably the most liberal republican in the senate.

[Real Texan Politics]

Can anyone vote in either primary in TX or is it restricted by party?  Like could Dems sabotage Abbott by voting for West?  In Virginia you can just take either primary ballot (when the GOP decides to actually have primaries that is).

Yes.

In Texas, we don't really have partisan registration.

Everyone is independent. But once you vote in a party's primary, you are with that party for the calendar year. You can't vote in the runoff for the other party.

Damn, why is Lincoln Project not all over this yet.  This calls for Dem dirty tricks.

Like the Lincoln Project would do anything

If anything they'll just endorse the democrat. They even campaigned against Susan Collins in 2020, arguably the most liberal republican in the senate.

Correct me if I’m wrong but members of the Lincoln project are really dems right?
These people do not endorse a single Republican even Collins

Pretty much, yea. They left the republicans and became dems because of Trump. Although the theorist side of me thinks they're probably just paid shills for the DNC.

I'll even be bold and say the only republican they'd support is Liz Cheney, maybe even Mitt Romney.

[Real Texan Politics]

Also, Chad Prather is running.
https://prather2022.com

Chad Prather’s already been mentioned in the thread, he’s got no shot at the nomination outside of his fans, some of which won’t even vote for him anyways.

[Real Texan Politics]

I think Abbott is a lot more vulnerable than many of you realize.  I wish Joaquin Castro would announce a run.  I think he'd win.

The only person with a decent shot at beating him is Matthew McConaughey, but only if he runs as a dem.

Although dems could beat Abbott if Matthew runs as a spoiler.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/jamesrhenson/status/1433495695105867776

Abbott approval at lowest point in poll history, underwater 41-50

I wonder where this'll go after the heartbeat and gun bills went into effect and caused a frenzy.

Also my old liberal classmates from high school won't shut up about the abortion bill but that's to be expected, which sorta shows that those types of bills will only energize voters against you.

[Real Texan Politics]

Also, could this be seen by some as him teasing a run for governor?
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1433109940776980480?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

I don't think he's extremely vulnerable, but he's a lot more polarizing now than he was in 2018 and 2014, which is why I think he wins by less than those two elections (despite it being a republican favorable year), especially if dems put up a much more energetic dem like Beto instead of a milquetoast dem like Valdez.

Beto will still be tainted by the comments that need no mention as they've been mentioned to death, but Texas dems love him, like a lot. The race won't be within 5 like Beto vs Cruz, but could be within 10 if dems play their cards right. I'd say Abbott's floor is R+7, ceiling may be 13-14.

Not only that, but there’ll also be a lot of new young voters, many of whom lean to the left and HATE Abbott. Remember Paxton Smith, the Dallas high school valedictorian who gave a pro-abortion speech? We may be seeing her on TV and on the campaign trail a lot helping the democrats beat Abbott, especially on the abortion issue.

[Real Texan Politics]

A new poll finds Abbott’s approval rating at 41 approve/50 disapprove, with 52% of Texans saying the state is on the “wrong track”.  This was taken before the abortion law took effect.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/570953-abbott-approval-rating-wanes-as-most-texans-say-state-on-wrong-track?fbclid=IwAR2QhxRv7-xTjLCq5WdZPilEpsIhb_viAZaVdYdTnnkYs7cPAd7MZcWsI7I

That poll may be more covid related, as the Texas covid numbers are very bad optics for Abbott, like with DeSantis (even though I think both are favored to win re-election anyways).

[Real Texan Politics]

Wikipedia now lists Steve Adler, the current mayor of Austin, as a potential canddiate.

The source they use, however, is an article from the Austin American-Statesman about whether his future political aspirations will be affected by his controversial trip to Mexico where he filmed a video (while in Mexico) discouraging Austin citizens from traveling.

So I'd take this with a grain of salt, probably isn't happening.

[Real Texan Politics]

Safe R remains Safe R.

Completely premature judgment.

So is any blue Texas prediction, although if McConaughey runs as a dem then maybe I could understand.

Also I'm surprised no one including myself have mentioned this so far, but could Gene Wu be a potential dem candidate? He's probably the most popular of the "fugitives" who fled the state to filibuster the voting bill, which ended up getting passed and signed into law recently.

A Wu vs Beto primary would remind me a lot of Crist vs Fried, with Wu being like Fried having a base of mostly out-of-state twitter #resist libs, and Beto being like Crist where he's consistently up in the polls by a lot. Maybe I'm crazy, but it could be a possibility.

Or maybe Wendy Davis makes a comeback, we'll never know.